Oiler's advanced stats show regression on the way?

[NotAVacuumSalesman]

Ye but analytics aside why is the OP so butt hurt and petty?

Its only 4 games into the season, not much to read into.

 

[super6646]

They’ll either play better or fall off a cliff like the ducks did last year.

Hell, same applies to the flames too (smaller extent, but they haven’t been great either).

 

[Skolman]

Hahaha @Puckluck13 is just a sad salty Flames fan right now, it will be okay pal.

Try harder on your poor attempt to start a thread to downplay the Oilers through 4, Mr. "Lucic for Neal was a fair trade".

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

Funny how you leave out High Danger Scoring Chance percentage, the stat with the most predictive value and the one we've dominated on all year.

This is 100% false.

 

[Scorvat]

Are we really gone have this thread 4 games in to the season?

 

[voxel]

Advanced stats were way off on the Isles game. Oilers dominated all night then took the last 10 minutes of the 3rd and somehow the shots were even when Oilers led by nearly double digits for 50mins.

In the long run all these stats normalize but after 4 games they are whacked. Two of the games Nucks and Devils are coin toss wins. They just happened to side with the Oilers early on but I’ll take the points because the coin will flip the other way later in the season.

 

[voxel]

If I'm the Oil, I would just load up the top line and play Drais-McDavid-Neal 30mins a night every game and hope they rack up so many points that it takes you to the promised land. Shoot for the stars.

Don’t need to. Sheahan is now back and playing the PK so that’s 3-4 mins less for Draisaitl and besides if you are leading you can rest your stars a little

 

[Cup or Bust]

At least they don't have Lucic on their team any more, that's a great stat to have.

 

[TheNumber4]

This thread is a bad look for Flames fans. So is defense of the Neal trade. Funny, Flames have a safe space at Calgary Puck to avoid bad looks and losing hockey debates, why not use it?

 

[iCanada]

Advanced stats were way off on the Isles game. Oilers dominated all night then took the last 10 minutes of the 3rd and somehow the shots were even when Oilers led by nearly double digits for 50mins.

In the long run all these stats normalize but after 4 games they are whacked. Two of the games Nucks and Devils are coin toss wins. They just happened to side with the Oilers early on but I’ll take the points because the coin will flip the other way later in the season.

They are also kind of skewed because the Oilers have led a lot of the time. Score effects exist.

That being said, I dont think anyone expects the Oilers to continue to lead the league or anything. But 4-0 sure feels good.

 

[vanarchy]

Are you telling me that a 4 game sample size wasn't substantial enough to forecast a successful full season?

 

[SecretOilersFan]

It's a four game sample of course we are going to regress like some have said got to wait until the end of November to really make judgements. That said we got off to a better start than the last two seasons so let us have this lol.

Like seriously hf boards go find some other teams to talk about. I know our fanbase is one of the bigger ones on here but seriously let us enjoy our 4 game stand. No one is thinking we are going to win the Stanley Cup or even go far but making the playoffs again yeah that would be nice and this start gives us hope.

 

[TeddyBare]

I personally believe Kassian can shoot over 50% over the course of a whole season.

 

[JPeeper]

Neal's start is like his start in Vegas, started off super hot and put up a bunch of goals, but within 40 games he fizzled out and barely scored the last half of the year and was on the 3rd line, where he'd stay for Vegas' playoff run.

Give it 25 games and the Oilers and Ducks will be back to the bottom of the Pacific and the Sharks and Vegas will be in the top 3.

 

[aufheben]

You can't start talking about regression 4 games in. That's not enough games, and teams are still playing October hockey anyway. That is why you have a defenseman with a 26.3 CF%. I think it goes without saying that the Oilers aren't going to finish the season 82-0.

 

[JeremyTB]

There is always alot of pretenders early in the season of every team sport. Not saying that's the Oilers or not but need to wait abit longer to see who is for real and who is not. Remember the Sabres red hot start last season? Then they came crashing back down to earth and missed the playoffs. And the opposite to be said for teams are who struggling early in the season that you wouldn't expect.

 

[Soliloquy of a Dogge]

Somebody is obsessed and upset.

 

[Snowpants]

Neal's start is like his start in Vegas, started off super hot and put up a bunch of goals, but within 40 games he fizzled out

No false he had 7 goals October 5 in Nov 5 in December

and barely scored the last half of the year

Also false Neal score 5 in 7 games from Game 41 on his worse stretch was in February and that was hurt him

and was on the 3rd line, where he'd stay for Vegas' playoff run.
.

Anddd false also of his ten games of 19 minutes or more TOI all but one came before December


Wow you really know nothing about this player

 

[JayE]

They haven't been a dominant 4-0 team, but to read this much into advanced stats over a 4 game sample size is a bit much. What I think can be said is that they're better than last year and I expect them to be on the bubble for the playoffs.

 

[Jumptheshark]

Oilers are last in SF% with 42.01

3rd last in FF% with 42.17


3rd last in CF% with 42.94

2nd in SH% with 14.08

6th in PDO with 1.039

8th last in SCF% with 45.27

Is the 4-0 start a mirage?

Oilers fans wake up check the morning score, oilers win again, head to HF and sure enough a thread like this is here. SHOCKED I TELL YA SHOCKED

done by smoke and mirrors or pure luck--we have won 4 games in a row and Neal scored again

My guess we will have 3 or 4 threads on the oilers about to fall off a cliff shortly--only to be topped with about 20 threads when they lose their first game with posters going "told ya so told ya so"

we have won 4 games in a row and we are enjoying it while we can--we know a crash is coming--there is also a crash coming with the Ducks--it is a long season and the first ten games are often a mirage compared to the last 72

we will enjoy it while we can and it is just made all the better by all the salt aimed our way

 

[alg363636]

The Oilers have been very streaky the last couple years. Remember last year when they got Hitchcock they went on a great run only to follow it up with an equally poor losing streak? That's how the roll. They're first hot streak is just starting early this year.

Their fans just need to hope the hot streaks outweigh the losing streaks this year - unlike the last two.

 

[Jumptheshark]

https://www.espn.co.uk/nhl/story/_/...poll-plus-small-sample-revelations-every-team


espn joins in

Ranked 20 in the Power rankings but they over look 5th in standings--when they posted that article

we will enjoy this while we can

 

[ricky0034]

wait you mean they aren't gonna go 82-0?

next thing you know you're gonna tell me Neal isn't actually gonna score 143 goals

 

[Jumptheshark]

2nd over all--only 4 games--but I figure all you stats people will enjoy it

 

[Jumptheshark]

wait you mean they aren't gonna go 82-0?

next thing you know you're gonna tell me Neal isn't actually gonna score 143 goals

or that Santa Clause and the Easter Bunny are not real