Speculation: Offseason Free Agency thread

[Habs Halifax]

I had the depth the NHLPA owed the owners at $3B after last season. I'm assuming the $1B in depth they are talking about in this article is after the next season ends? Looks like they will pay off about $2B of it which is nice.

Cap for 23/24 should bump up more than expected. Good news cause the narrative that was talked about was flat cap for 3 years. Not the case exactly

 

[Archijerej]

I mean. I think we have plenty of players right now who get Montreal near the top of the league in most even strength metrics without being able to thread the needle.

I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

I'm not sure that's the case anymore.

I'm pretty sure Tatar was not a major factor for that, regardless. Danault, quite clearly. Weber? The way he played last season? Not quite sure.

 

[CHfan1]

I had the depth the NHLPA owed the owners at $3B after last season. I'm assuming the $1B in depth they are talking about in this article is after the next season ends? Looks like they will pay off about $2B of it which is nice.

Cap for 23/24 should bump up more than expected. Good news cause the narrative that was talked about was flat cap for 3 years. Not the case exactly

I’m not sure how you calculated $3 billion, that seems very high. Anyways the $1 billion is after last season according to the article:

In addition, sources say that the escrow balance owed by players to owners is in the ballpark of $1 billion following last season, though the exact figure is still being computed following final 2020-21 accounting. A total of $1.1 billion owed is most likely.

Also according to the article:

NHL players can hope to pay off their billion dollar debt some time during the 2025-26 season.

If that’s the case expect the cap to go up by $1 million per season for a while.

 

[XavierZabo]

Seeing Tatar disappear in the playoff year after year makes me a lot more comfortable with it.

He would be a perfect fit for the Leafs

 

[Archijerej]

You need to get your facts straight. Hoffman superior in the playoff AND regular season. So there's that too.
Check yourself before you wreck yourself
Tomas Tatar Stats and News
Mike Hoffman Stats and News

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

 

[MSLs absurd thighs]

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

The loss of Danault and Tatar will have to be made up by the progression of our young players like Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Evans up front, and with the addition of Perreault/Paquette/Hoffman. In past seasons, Hoffman didn't have nearly as bad metrics as last season at even strength. Perreault is a solid bottom-6 even strength player. As for our young centers, you'll call me crazy, but I think the one that still has the most room to improve is Suzuki. The kid has the tools to be completely dominant if he puts them all together. What he did in the playoffs this year really impressed the hell out of me. And that's coming from a guy who was pretty skeptical about not trading him for Dubois.

If he can somewhat improve in faceoffs, he's going to be a 20 minutes player for us in the not-so-long term.

 

[salbutera]

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

There will be a drop off in 5-on-5, but I’m expecting a significant uptick in PP from bottom tier in the league (which has been the case for a few years now) to above midpoint...which should not only offset but provide net gains

 

[Forsead]

Plenty of worse contract have been given out

4,625M for 5 years for a 7th dman that was well known to be finished in the league (and at his best a #4) is hard to beat.

 

[Archijerej]

The loss of Danault and Tatar will have to be made up by the progression of our young players like Suzuki, Kotkaniemi and Evans up front, and with the addition of Perreault/Paquette/Hoffman. In past seasons, Hoffman didn't have nearly as bad metrics as last season at even strength. Perreault is a solid bottom-6 even strength player. As for our young centers, you'll call me crazy, but I think the one that still has the most room to improve is Suzuki. The kid has the tools to be completely dominant if he puts them all together. What he did in the playoffs this year really impressed the hell out of me. And that's coming from a guy who was pretty skeptical about not trading him for Dubois.

If he can somewhat improve in faceoffs, he's going to be a 20 minutes player for us in the not-so-long term.

There's too many question marks for me to be optimistic, although I'm very high on Suzuki as well.

 

[Archijerej]

There will be a drop off in 5-on-5, but I’m expecting a significant uptick in PP from bottom tier in the league (which has been the case for a few years now) to above midpoint...which should not only offset but provide net gains

We'll see.

With Caufield around, I'm not sure we necessarily needed Hoffman to have a decent powerplay.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I’m not sure how you calculated $3 billion, that seems very high. Anyways the $1 billion is after last season according to the article:

I have more in depth numbers I can show you but this is the simple math...

* NHL is a $5.09B market (prior to Covid). The current cap is set on that $5.09B market. That was the numbers that came from 18/19 revenue.

* Prior to Covid derailing the 19/20 season, the projected salary cap for 20/21 was expected to be $86M - $88M range. Covid derailed this cause they could not finish the regular season and therefore lost the revenue that would have came from that. They had about $500M - $1B of depth after that play in playoffs (recouped some money but not all of it). I don't have the exact numbers but I recall it being $1B before the play in playoffs.

* Ticket revenue represents about 50% of total revenue. That's about $2.5B (not exact but close to some degree). So basically, most of the entire 20/21 season was played without that revenue coming in but the players were still paid based on a $5.09B market.

* Add the balance they owed from 19/20 and 20/21 and it's around $3B. Now consider that with a 100% healthy market with fans in the seats for 21/22, new US TV deals creating more revenue, and new extra revenue from Seattle and the Market is likely going to shoot up to $6B or just under somewhere. This is how the NHLPA is going to pay it quicker than expected. This latest article supports the numbers I have been gathering.

 

[Sterling Archer]

4,625M for 5 years for a 7th dman that was well known to be finished in the league (and at his best a #4) is hard to beat.

It’s a bad contract. No doubt. But there are way worse ones out there that make this one look like a bargain.

 

[Redux91]

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

Just because you keep saying "Tatar is a better all-around player" , just for the sake of wanting your "tatar over hoffman" take to be right, does not make it true lol

You keep bringing it up, again, as if it were a real thing, as if to offset that hoffman scores more than tatar, so you have to find a way to counter the hoffman is a better scorer thing with some kind of "skill" or " false fact" and you keep going with "well hes clearly a better all around player" like WHAT lol, SHOW me how
all of tatars 5 on 5 metrics is because he was attached to Danaults hip , and the only reason his assist totals were a bit higher than usual is because of the back to back 30 goal Gallagher seasons thanks to all the garbage goals he would score and they keep tacking on assists for Tatar for just "being there" lol

Come playoff time (2 with us and 1 with vegas) all of a sudden, disappears? non factor? soft? physically outmatched? (same thing lol but has to be said) TWO teams scratching him in the playoffs, once when he is age 28 and then when he is age 30, but yeah, he'll only get better at 32 right? lol

I wish someone would compile all his PP one timer chances this year too, i think he botched/flubbed/whiffed on all 7-8 of them for f***s sakes

having said all this, im completely aware of hoffmans shortcomings, im just trying to tell you Tatars are the same if not worse at barely 5"10
ill take the potential 30 goal PP trigger man over a barely 20 goal tunnel vision playoff softee, for the same price no less lol

 

[CHfan1]

I have more in depth numbers I can show you but this is the simple math...

* NHL is a $5.09B market (prior to Covid). The current cap is set on that $5.09B market. That was the numbers that came from 18/19 revenue.

* Prior to Covid derailing the 19/20 season, the projected salary cap for 20/21 was expected to be $86M - $88M range. Covid derailed this cause they could not finish the regular season and therefore lost the revenue that would have came from that. They had about $500M - $1B of depth after that play in playoffs (recouped some money but not all of it). I don't have the exact numbers but I recall it being $1B before the play in playoffs.

* Ticket revenue represents about 50% of total revenue. That's about $2.5B (not exact but close to some degree). So basically, most of the entire 20/21 season was played without that revenue coming in but the players were still paid based on a $5.09B market.

* Add the balance they owed from 19/20 and 20/21 and it's around $3B. Now consider that with a 100% healthy market with fans in the seats for 21/22, new US TV deals creating more revenue, and new extra revenue from Seattle and the Market is likely going to shoot up to $6B or just under somewhere. This is how the NHLPA is going to pay it quicker than expected. This latest article supports the numbers I have been gathering.

How does it support it? They have it being paid off in 2025-26 and they have the escrow at $1 billion after the 2020-21 season.

They even have a table showing the projected amount of escrow being paid off each season and what the cap is project to be, going up by $1 million per season until 2025-26 (they have the cap at $85.5 million that season).

 

[Redux91]

4,625M for 5 years for a 7th dman that was well known to be finished in the league (and at his best a #4) is hard to beat.

I dont know man, thats a bad one but that Ladd contract still cracks me up lol, theres dipietro, lucic? james neal seems to get 5-6 mill every year lol

 

[Habs Halifax]

How does it support it? They have it being paid off in 2025-26 and they have the escrow at $1 billion after the 2020-21 season.

They even have a table showing the projected amount of escrow being paid off each season and what the cap is project to be, going up by $1 million per season until 2025-26 (they have the cap at $85.5 million that season).

You are not considering the market growth. The tables you see are based on future market guesses and they were forced to be conservative with it so it was less strain on the salary cap structure. I believe we had this conversation before... you are looking at the agreed CBA platform but you are not considering that it will change if the market is higher than they expect. Why? Cause I told you, the number 1 rule is 50/50 split. There are clauses in there that stipulate things will be adjusted if required. You seem to be ignoring that part and I don't know why

Think about it. If the market growth is higher than they predicted, the NHL is not gong to get more than their 50/50 split. It works two ways, not just one.

It's too dam difficult to explain on a posting forum. I also have lost ability to post images for some reason. Wish I could show you the various calculations I did last year. This latest article supports the numbers I have gathered and it appears they are going to be ahead of schedule if things continue from what they see today and fans are back in the seats.

 

[CHfan1]

You are not considering the market growth. The tables you see are based on future market guesses and they were forced to be conservative with it so it was less strain on the salary cap structure. I believe we had this conversation before... you are looking at the agreed CBA platform but you are not considering that it will change if the market is higher than they expect. Why? Cause I told you, the number 1 rule is 50/50 split. There are clauses in there that stipulate things will be adjusted if required.

Think about it. If the market growth is higher than they predicted, the NHL is not gong to get more than their 50/50 split. It works two ways, not just one.

If hockey related revenue is higher yeah the players will pay off escrow quicker.

I’m still not sure where you got $3 billion from (cause it wasn’t that much after the 2019-20 or 2020-21 season). Again they have $1 billion or so in escrow after last season - 2020-21, according to the article.

Anyways I’ll trust this article, and what the insiders and Bettman have been saying about the cap not going up by a lot for awhile.

 

[Habs Halifax]

If hockey related revenue is higher yeah the players will pay off escrow quicker.

I’m still not sure where you got $3 billion from (cause it wasn’t that much after the 2019-20 or 2020-21 season). Again they have $1 billion or so in escrow after last season - 2020-21, according to the article.

Anyways I’ll trust this article, and what the insiders and Bettman have been saying about the cap not going up by a lot for awhile.

The escrow bank is only a part of the entire formula. 20% holdback was the escrow! 5.09B market x 20% is $1B. I have that factored in as well. And it's painful to explain on a posting forum... My $3B was the total amount owed. Subtracting $1B from that is in my formula... I just didn't tell you everything cause it's deep with context. Next year it's 17% if things go according to plan but what happens if the market is higher than the original guess? That means the balance is paid off quicker.

It's not complicated when you consider this little simple point.... 50% of revenue is from tickets and the last season was played with no fans for 95% of the season. That's a shortfall of at least $2.5B. And you have to add what was owed from the previous season as well which was probably in the $500M - $1B range.

The $1B in escrow is holdback. It's part of the payment process. You can trust the article all you want but you also have to do your own digging and take things with a grain of salt because it never gives you the entire picture.

 

[CHfan1]

The escrow bank is only a part of the entire formula. 20% holdback was the escrow! 5.09B market x 20% is $1B. I have that factored in as well.

It's not complicated when you consider this little simple point.... 50% of revenue is from tickets and the last season was played with no fans for 95% of the season. That's a shortfall of at least $2.5B. And you have to add what was owed from the previous season as well which was probably in the $500M - $1B range.

The $1B in escrow is holdback. It's part of the payment process.

The 20 % for the 2020-21 season is the amount (according to the CBA) that was agreed upon to come off the players cheques. Any escrow above that is considered the escrow balance. The escrow balance is $1 billion or so after next season, that’s the amount the players have to pay down eventually. However only a certain % of escrow is allowed to be taken off their cheques per season according to the CBA. Anything more (or less) than that amount is applied to the escrow balance.

To the extent the funds placed in the Escrow Account for any given League Year are insufficient to make up (i) the projected Overage for that League Year plus (ii) any portions of Overages from previous League Years not paid to the League, the difference shall be considered the “Escrow Balance.”

 

[zzoo]

Is letting Messi walking away like Oilers not signing McDavid and let him becoming UFA ? Imagine that McDavid is an UFA now

 

[26Mats]

Is letting Messi walking away like Oilers not signing McDavid and let him becoming UFA ? Imagine that McDavid is an UFA now

I would love to see Messi and Ronaldo finally play on the same team.

 

[Sterling Archer]

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

Tatar is not better all around, he was just on a line with 2 very defensively responsible line mates. He scored less point in the regular season and Houdini himself in the playoffs. Hoffman has contributed more in the regular and post season, you know, the one that matters.

Don’t think we’ll miss his 5 goals in his last 36 as a Hab.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The 20 % for the 2020-21 season is the amount that came off the players cheques. Any escrow above that is considered the escrow balance. The escrow balance is $1 billion or so after next season, that’s the amount the players have to pay down eventually. However only a certain % of escrow is allowed to be taken off their cheques per season according to the CBA. Anything more (or less) than that amount is applied to the escrow balance.

Semantics issue at play here. I call both the 20% hold back and any other holdback Escrow.

Something else to consider... $81.5M salary cap came from a $5.09B market. That article you are reading has the projected market at $4.8B for next year and I have that exact number in my formula as well. However, consider this part... Salary cap before Covid was projected to be $86M - $88M range for the 20/21 season. That would indicate a higher market than $5.09B right? . So I believe they are projecting very conservatives numbers at this point with that $4.8B market for the coming season. It doesn't all add up to me and I've dug deep into this before.

How does the cap grow from $81.5M to a projected $86M - $88M range before Covid? That was right before Covid (Early 2020). That was the projected salary cap for the 20/21 season at that point in time. I'm not making this up, it was an article posted about Bettman's market predictions with the players. Now they are saying the market will be $4.8B for 21/22 with fans in the seats, Seattle revenue, and new US TV deals? It seems very, very, very, conservative to me. Then I wonder, the amount of spending done this off season was ridiculous if teams actually thought the cap would be flat for that long. It don't add all up and you got to be kidding me if you think they are going to release the optimistic projections vs the pessimistic ones. It's in their best interest to be conservative with any public information released

Simple question... Do you believe what you are reading when you see a $4.8B market for next year? I believe they are projecting conservative numbers cause they have to. However, if the NHL is back to normal next year with fans in the seats, it's going to be more than $4.8B. Mark my words. The only thing that derails that is people are afraid to go to the games cause Covid is still messing around with our lives.

 

[le_sean]

I don't think the difference in production the last 3 seasons is significant enough to offset the fact that Tatar is a better all-round player.

Hoffman serves a purpose as a PP triggerman, provided we can maintain our level of play at 5-on-5. With Danault and Tatar gone, I don't think we can. I also think our PP would have been fine with Suzuki and Caufield at opposite half boards.

Tatar was a healthy scratch in the playoffs. That’s all you need to know. Who cares what his slow ass did in the regular season. He was lousy on the PP and soft. Hoffman is a better player.