Speculation: Official Rumours/Fantasy Trade Offers/Armchair GM Thread: 2020-21 edition

[Ratsreign]

Pretty sure Kempny lived in Q's dog-house...

I think so, that’s why he ended up in DC.

 

[ucanthanzalthetruth]

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

 

[violaswallet]

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

Yep.

I would guess that other teams were trying to figure out if Zito valued Knight as much as Tallon or if he valued the plan of waiting for Knight. I guess a team could have thought "Hey, this is different. Maybe Zito doesn't value him like a team usually values their 13th overall draft pick after an amazing freshman year."

I doubt it was "Hey, want to trade Broberg/Turcotte for Knight?"

 

[FrolikFan67]

If we could get a top end defensive prospect or center prospect fo knight then absolutely I would do it. But I know they never return that type of package. I’m happy with knight and look forward to him playing here but yeah, I would trade him if that were the kinda return he could garner. But it isn’t.

—————

still hoping for AP (assuming you can get him for under 10per, which I think he will. He’s 31 when the season starts, Josi just got under 9.1per as a comparable, and the cap is stagnant for the next two years). And again, IF they do it’s most likely because they have something in place to move Yandle. Imagine. Imagine in one offseason we move Yandle AND matheson, while on top of that bringing in one of the best D in the game (and just voted 4th for the Norris). Talk about an overnight d Corp haul. I mean the D would be insanely better just from removing matheson and Yandle, but then bring ap in? A top-4 of him, Ekblad, weegar, and just one open spot? Stillman and Stralman could potentially anchor the bottom pairing.

on a separate note, even if all of that did happen, we’d still have one LD spot left in the top-4, a cheap pickup that I’d like to see via trade would be Devon toews from nyi. They’ll make sure to keep Pulock (and he’s a RD anyways), mayfield is still under contract for 3yrs at a dirt price rate and probably won’t be moved, and pelech dirt cheap for one more season but still an rfa after that so I doubt they move him. Would love to nab one of toews or pelech, I’d wager the 12th overall depending on who’s left. With barzal’s raise coming up they may open to some trades (mostly to get rid of bigger contracts, but still, if they’re unavailable to hand out those raises then may as well gain some high picks)

 

[GrumpyKelly]

Knight is untouchable. Period.

I don't think anyone is untouchable but in reality it doesn't make sense to move him. This whole conversation is just noise, I'm sure a lot of prospects are talked about all the time.

 

[BB88]

Picking Knight is the best thing they’ve done post Barkov, and should keep him

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

Franchise goalies like Rask/Price/Vasi don’t hit the market.

Having a guy like that on your net year in year out is a massive advatage. So many Cup hopes are lost on wesk goaltending.

We also have data for Knights’ +1 season and he has continued at elite level and is a year closer to NHL.

2 seasons in juniors, 1 year as starter in AHL, 1-2 seasons as back up trying to stole starting job.
21/22y-> Knights team

 

[Pigge]

Picking Knight is the best thing they’ve done post Barkov, and should keep him




Franchise goalies like Rask/Price/Vasi don’t hit the market.

Having a guy like that on your net year in year out is a massive advatage. So many Cup hopes are lost on wesk goaltending.

We also have data for Knights’ +1 season and he has continued at elite level and is a year closer to NHL.

2 seasons in juniors, 1 year as starter in AHL, 1-2 seasons as back up trying to stole starting job.
21/22y-> Knights team

On the other hand, at the same age Markstrom was putting up similar numbers in the SHL as Knight is doing in NCAA. One can argue that the difference between rink sizes has a bigger impact on goalies, but the transition to the NHL is never guaranteed. Knight seems like a good bet though.

Also, Roy and Luongo did hit the market to the benefit of the buyers.

 

[BB88]

On the other hand, at the same age Markstrom was putting up similar numbers in the SHL as Knight is doing in NCAA. One can argue that the difference between rink sizes has a bigger impact on goalies, but the transition to the NHL is never guaranteed. Knight seems like a good bet though.

Also, Roy and Luongo did hit the market to the benefit of the buyers.

So in the last 30 years 3 franchise goalies have hit the market? Even Bob was considered declining when he got to market
Panarin/Tavares just hit the UFA market, Pietrangelo could hit the UFA market this year, Hall is hitting UFA market this year, quality skaters hit the market every year currently.

As said during Price/Rask era franchise goalies pretty much never hit the market

Knight was getting compared to Price/Vasi on draft day, so very high pedidgree, and he just continued to play at an elite level on his +1 season.
As we are looking at today he has everything you want from your goalie prospect and betting him to turn into a real starter is a lot easier than late round picks
So far he has done nothing to make one doubt him.

 

[letsgrowcactus]

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

If good starters are so easy to find, why did we end up paying 10x7 for Bobrovski?
Knight might not have been my pick bu we picked him and he's had a great season. We also need someone to take over from Bob in 3-4 years at a cheap price. You draft someone this year in the late round, they're unlikely to be ready by then. Which is not to say we should put all our hopes on Knight, but right now he's by far our best chance for Bob's successor (and we have to be thinking about this now - maybe if Tallon was more proactive when he traded Markstrom for Luongo, we wouldn't have Bob's massive contract on the books right now).
Never say never but as of now, I really don't think trading Knight makes sense for us.

 

[pantherbot]

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

Disagree here and I think this is a huge misconception.

There are many 1st round pick goalies that end up to be really good regulars, not just Vasi and Brodeur. Price, MAF, Ward, Schneider, Rask, Lehtonen, Varlamov, Dubnyk. Probably others, but these are some more recent ones

Also it's a contradiction to say drafting goalies is uncertain and inconsistent, but it's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie. If anything, it's harder to find a great goalie because people don't know how to evaluate goaltending talent well. It's so much easier to find and project offensive talent than it is for goalies. So when you have a goalie prospect that is as close to a sure thing as a prospect can get, it's very valuable.

The UFA market is full of goalies that have question marks. Lehner has bounced around a lot, Markstrom and Holtby are already 30. If anything, top tier offensive talent seems to hit the UFA market almost every year. Hall this year, Panarin last year, Tavares previously, etc. The offensive free agents usually come with much less question marks than free agent goalies.

Good goalies can be found, but it's not as easy as some people make it sound. Look at the Flyers, maybe they've finally found a solution in Hart, but that took a loooong time. I'd trade anyone, including Knight, for the right package, but he's being undervalued here.

 

[drktmplr12]

a team has about 16 forwards and 2-3 goalies. how many goalies are drafted in a given year versus forwards. is there a goalie selected for each 5 forwards? no. how many drafted goalies end up playing 100 games in the NHL versus forwards, taking into consideration all draft rounds. that's like 3-4 seasons of backup.

i would hypothesize that you are statistically more likely to have a goalie play 100 games versus a forward. not going to do the math though.

that said, knight should be off the table unless the offer isweighted in panther's favor on order of 20-40% over payment.

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

If someone is willing to pay a high price for Knight, then do it.

We need to be relevant now. Even the Marlins are in the playoffs (<3 you Marlins)

 

[Chessarmy]

I'm in the "keep Knight" camp. Look how long it took the Flyers to solidify their goaltending, I don't want to be in a position were the position is a revolving door after Bob leaves/declines.

 

[ProjectPanthers]

I'd move Knight if a great offer came in, goalies are like kickers, you can find great ones late. Sure some like Vasi and Brodeur were 1st round picks but for every one of those there are 4 Al Montoyas or Jack Campbells. It's a lot harder to find a great forward than a great goalie, just look at the UFA market there this year, it's insane.

I find it hilarious that you think goalies can be "found late" but then you list two generational talents, one which is arguably the best goaltender ever and the other is the best goaltender in the league right now, both have now won cups.

Spencer Knight does not seem to be another "Al Montoya". He has all the skills to be a dominant goaltender in this league for years. You can use the same argument and say "you can get good centers and defensemen" late in the draft.

A franchise goalie plays every minute of 60+ games in a season. There is nothing more valuable in the NHL than a great and consistent goaltender. The Canadiens have remained "in it" every single season only because of their goalkeeping, even when their roster is a bunch of nobodies.

Can you win a Stanley Cup without a franchise goaltender? Of course you can. Many teams have proven it. But teams have also shown how far a keeper can take you. I don't think the Kings sniff a cup without Quick, Habs never reach conference finals, hell even Tampa wouldn't have won the cup if they got just decent goaltending all playoffs.

It seems like insanity to me that you all would be willing to trade a franchise goalie for ANOTHER prospect that could "bust" just as much as some of you are saying Knight will.

When you've drafted a franchise goaltender, why would you trade him when such a piece is extremely rare to come across? Knight is arguably one of the most valuable assets this team has. Trading him would be......classic Panthers because it's honestly insane to me.

 

[violaswallet]

Just to recap the debate, there seems to be several areas of disagreement:

1. Knight's outcome distribution:
   1. Riskiness of Knight's outcome
   2. Expected outcome (several people on the board view him as a certain franchise goalie)
   3. Timing (I do think this is a big one with goalies actually...given the Markstrom example...and unique to goalies)
2. Relative risk of forwards/defensemen
3. Ability to replace in free agent market:
   1. This relates to (1). If we view him as a franchise goalie, it's difficult to replace. If we view him as a likely top 15 goalie, well it's a bit costlier but doable.
4. Difference between Knight and say a prospect selected in the second round

 

[Bure1096]

Panther fans right now:

 

[Dread Clawz]

I think Zito is like most of us, he doesn't want to trade Knight. But whereas Tallon would have never, ever traded Knight....there's a small chance Zito does. If he gets an offer that blows him away. I think if Bob rebounds this year, he entertains it.

 

[violaswallet]

I think Zito is like most of us, he doesn't want to trade Knight. But whereas Tallon would have never, ever traded Knight....there's a small chance Zito does. If he gets an offer that blows him away. I think if Bob rebounds this year, he entertains it.

Good wording; I agree.

We can't have untradable prospects...we need highly-valuable prospects.

The only prospects that should not be possible to be traded are the Ekblads of the world

 

[ProjectPanthers]

I agree, no prospect is technically "untradeable" because literally everyone is tradeable given the right circumstances.

I just think it's silly to think about trading him right now when we have yet to see what he can do, especially if we are just going to get another unproven prospect back.

 

[RainingRats]

Huberdeau, Borgstrom, and a first round pick for Eichel. Thoughts?

We might need some salary going to Buffalo too.

 

[I am not exposed]

I find it hilarious that you think goalies can be "found late" but then you list two generational talents, one which is arguably the best goaltender ever and the other is the best goaltender in the league right now, both have now won cups.

Spencer Knight does not seem to be another "Al Montoya". He has all the skills to be a dominant goaltender in this league for years. You can use the same argument and say "you can get good centers and defensemen" late in the draft.

A franchise goalie plays every minute of 60+ games in a season. There is nothing more valuable in the NHL than a great and consistent goaltender. The Canadiens have remained "in it" every single season only because of their goalkeeping, even when their roster is a bunch of nobodies.

Can you win a Stanley Cup without a franchise goaltender? Of course you can. Many teams have proven it. But teams have also shown how far a keeper can take you. I don't think the Kings sniff a cup without Quick, Habs never reach conference finals, hell even Tampa wouldn't have won the cup if they got just decent goaltending all playoffs.

It seems like insanity to me that you all would be willing to trade a franchise goalie for ANOTHER prospect that could "bust" just as much as some of you are saying Knight will.

When you've drafted a franchise goaltender, why would you trade him when such a piece is extremely rare to come across? Knight is arguably one of the most valuable assets this team has. Trading him would be......classic Panthers because it's honestly insane to me.

Brodeur is not arguably the best goaltender ever.

 

[I am not exposed]

Reading this thread makes me even more depressed that we signed Bob.

 

[FinlandPanther]

Huberdeau, Borgstrom, and a first round pick for Eichel. Thoughts?

We might need some salary going to Buffalo too.

I’d think long and hard.

 

[violaswallet]

I’d think long and hard.

It's not enough to get him. Eichel is a premier young center with team control through 2026. I hate to say it, but we don't have the assets with packaging two of the big three, which I'm against.

 

[Gizmo Tkachuk]

Huberdeau, Borgstrom, and a first round pick for Eichel. Thoughts?

We might need some salary going to Buffalo too.

Buffalo probably says no