Speculation: Official Fantasy Trade Offers/Armchair GM Thread: 2018-20 edition

[Dread Clawz]

Why would a top young centerman stay here and make money when it's clearly not working. If he's not signing, we trade him and probably some other team can give the extra year.

Mark freaking Stone has more success in Ottawa than Barky has experienced here and it's not his fault or the core's fault: they're the best players in franchise history to play their positions and have put up the best numbers w.r.t. Barkov and Huberdeau.

I'll gladly take this best conditional on the team taking your strategy @TheImpatientPanther. I just think ZIto will try to get some success and not rely on 2 rookies who aren't even are top 3 prospects for our top 3 centers

Eh, I'll make it a three-way bet, Barkov ain't leaving. He's just like Bouw was here, he doesn't like the spotlight, he's uncomfortable in interviews, he seems pretty quiet for the most part. There's no way he's going to Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Calgary, New York, Philly, New Jersey, Chicago, Detroit etc. He just isn't. I'll take that bet anyday of the week. I don't mean to play amateur shrink here, but there are only a few other cities I can see Barkov going to, and the good thing for us is that most of those teams suck worse than the Panthers do right now and aren't going to be good in 1-2 years either. Like Anaheim, San Jose, Nashville. Plus I don't think one more season of losing would be a big deal. He's also a Finn and Finns are loyal.

 

[violaswallet]

Eh, I'll make it a three-way bet, Barkov ain't leaving. He's just like Bouw was here, he doesn't like the spotlight, he's uncomfortable in interviews, he seems pretty quiet for the most part. There's no way he's going to Montreal, Ottawa, Boston, Calgary, New York, Philly, New Jersey, Chicago, Detroit etc. He just isn't. I'll take that bet anyday of the week. I don't mean to play amateur shrink here, but there are only a few other cities I can see Barkov going to, and the good thing for us is that most of those teams suck worse than the Panthers do right now and aren't going to be good in 1-2 years either. Like Anaheim, San Jose, Nashville. Plus I don't think one more season of losing would be a big deal. He's also a Finn and Finns are loyal.

But Bouw left under similar circumstances?

 

[violaswallet]

Also I think I have a better handle of the insurance problem. The league used to, and probably still does, have a group insurance plan where each team pays a premium based on their highest paid players. The teams can then allocate the insurance across 7 players. The insurer, to prevent adverse selection, can exempt certain injuries, i.e. concussions for Crosby.

It's unclear if Pittsburgh ever insured Hornqvist after he signed or if they kept him insured; we also don't know the exemptions.

No one really knows how insurance works with trades as well: one potential is that the insurer will not insure Hornqvist after his injuries if he is traded.

If this is true, we would have to get secondary market insurance which is probably prohibitively expensive given age/injury status,

 

[Dread Clawz]

But Bouw left under similar circumstances?

True but Bouw is Canadian and wanted to play in a more traditional market, he never wanted to play in Florida. So he kinda had to face the cameras eventually no matter what. Barkov doesn't have those scruples and seems to genuinely like being a Panther. Iirc, we also didn't make Bouw a good enough offer to stay, or at least make him think about it. Things are different financially now for the Panthers.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Also I think I have a better handle of the insurance problem. The league used to, and probably still does, have a group insurance plan where each team pays a premium based on their highest paid players. The teams can then allocate the insurance across 7 players. The insurer, to prevent adverse selection, can exempt certain injuries, i.e. concussions for Crosby.

It's unclear if Pittsburgh ever insured Hornqvist after he signed or if they kept him insured; we also don't know the exemptions.

No one really knows how insurance works with trades as well: one potential is that the insurer will not insure Hornqvist after his injuries if he is traded.

If this is true, we would have to get secondary market insurance which is probably prohibitively expensive given age/injury status,

Your last paragraph makes sense and was probably the stumbling block. I mean I wouldn't insure Hornqvist either.

 

[violaswallet]

True but Bouw is Canadian and wanted to play in a more traditional market, he never wanted to play in Florida. So he kinda had to face the cameras eventually no matter what. Barkov doesn't have those scruples and seems to genuinely like being a Panther. Iirc, we also didn't make Bouw a good enough offer to stay, or at least make him think about it. Things are different financially now for the Panthers.

It could have been money, but I sometimes think it's just a desire to compete. I do not think we can honestly say that we know Barkov's preferences given how quiet he is.

I view Barkov as like Kovalchuk from his Atlanta days: he is willing to be the star, but we need to give him hope for the future. For Atlanta, the problem was ownership it turns out; for Florida, I worry it's lack of progress and too many
"this time is different in moments." We're on like the third time that we're close since like 2014.

Your last paragraph makes sense and was probably the stumbling block. I mean I wouldn't insure Hornqvist either.

Yep. I think that's the problem. Probably need to talk with ownership and re-negotiate. My fear is that Pittsburgh assumed that Florida new and gave their best offer.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Huberdeau - Barkov - Tippett
??Hoff/Saad?? - ??? - Hornqvist
Vatrano - ??? - Connolly
Wallmark - Acciari - ???

Obviously the C's could be Saarela/Borg, maybe we now re-sign Pysyk for that 4th line RW?
Hoffman, Horny, Frank and Conman can insulate both youngins if need be.

Weegar - Ekblad
Stillman - Stralman
Yandle - Keeper/Brown

 

[violaswallet]

Huberdeau - Barkov - Tippett
??Hoff/Saad?? - ??? - Hornqvist
Vatrano - ??? - Connolly
Wallmark - Acciari - ???

Obviously the C's could be Saarela/Borg, maybe we now re-sign Pysyk for that 4th line RW?
Hoffman, Horny, Frank and Conman can insulate both youngins if need be.

Weegar - Ekblad
Stillman - Stralman
Yandle - Keeper/Brown

I think Pysyk might come up: I also think one of Saarela/Borg/Wallmark is a third line winger; Wallmark looked good for us when he played inthe playoffs. I think if he enters with the mentality as a 3C, he'd be great

Hunt would be my pick to take Sceviour's spot. I think some team is going to give Pysyk 2M without realizing his offense was due to playing wing. I'm pretty sure Horn will play with Barkov and Huberdeau; his physicality is needed

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I think Pysyk might come up: I also think one of Saarela/Borg/Wallmark is a third line winger; Wallmark looked good for us when he played inthe playoffs. I think if he enters with the mentality as a 3C, he'd be great

Hunt would be my pick to take Sceviour's spot. I think some team is going to give Pysyk 2M without realizing his offense was due to playing wing. I'm pretty sure Horn will play with Barkov and Huberdeau; his physicality is needed

For sure, guys can move around, will depend if Q wants to roll 3 scoring lines and one 4th line/grinding trio or spread it out and roll 4 fluid lines.
Figured it insulated Borg/Saarela if they want to give them a shot. Wallmark can slide to 3C, Hunt on 4LW and one of Borg/Saarela sit. They likely fight each other for time which is good to breed competition and compete within them.

Love Hunt, he's very solid, works hard, draws penalties, will give/take hit to make the play. Q seems to like him as well.
Basically replaces Sceviour, Hunt got a lot of DZ starts this past year

Ehhh? Still think Pisser will get that much? We'll see but that seems like a lot despite his sneaky 9 goals and 18pts as a forwenseman

 

[violaswallet]

For sure, guys can move around, will depend if Q wants to roll 3 scoring lines and one 4th line/grinding trio or spread it out and roll 4 fluid lines.
Figured it insulated Borg/Saarela if they want to give them a shot. Wallmark can slide to 3C, Hunt on 4LW and one of Borg/Saarela sit. They likely fight each other for time which is good to breed competition and compete within them.

Love Hunt, he's very solid, works hard, draws penalties, will give/take hit to make the play. Q seems to like him as well.
Basically replaces Sceviour, Hunt got a lot of DZ starts this past year

Ehhh? Still think Pisser will get that much? We'll see but that seems like a lot despite his sneaky 9 goals and 18pts as a forwenseman

Yep: I think essentially Q viewed them as interchanagable in the post-season.

I expect Pysyk to be over-valued as a RD and some GM is not going to do his due diligence.

This move is great I think: we no longer need to rely on Deni to be ready and Tippett can stay on the 2nd-3rd (if he isn't great run Vatano and Connolly on the second). I like the value

 

[violaswallet]

Yep: I think essentially Q viewed them as interchanagable in the post-season.

I expect Pysyk to be over-valued as a RD and some GM is not going to do his due diligence.

This move is great I think: we no longer need to rely on Deni to be ready and Tippett can stay on the 2nd-3rd (if he isn't great run Vatano and Connolly on the second). I like the value

Also it opens up money through 2023-2026, which is big if want to re-sign Hoff. We don't want a bad Hoff contract to preclude us from re-signing one of the big 3 or the talent the big 3 needs. I expect Hoff to be a 3M a year player in 2024, so this good.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Also it opens up money through 2023-2026, which is big if want to re-sign Hoff. We don't want a bad Hoff contract to preclude us from re-signing one of the big 3 or the talent the big 3 needs. I expect Hoff to be a 3M a year player in 2024, so this good.

We currently have projected cap space of $41.7 million (obviously could/will change) the year Barkov is due.
Cap may go up a mil or two once SEA starts playing (also strongly assuming % of fans will be in stands for 2020-21)

Reminds me of Step Brothers after making the bunk beds: "so much room to do activities"
Hoping Barkov will be a leader and take a haircut on the new deal, moving Matheson strongly indidcates they're freeing up that money for him and possibly Hubderdeau.

 

[violaswallet]

We currently have projected cap space of $41.7 million (obviously could/will change) the year Barkov is due.
Cap may go up a mil or two once SEA starts playing (also strongly assuming % of fans will be in stands for 2020-21)

Reminds me of Step Brothers after making the bunk beds: "so much room to do activities"
Hoping Barkov will be a leader and take a haircut on the new deal, moving Matheson strongly indidcates they're freeing up that money for him and possibly Hubderdeau.

Sure. but prices go up. We cut the fat we can, so maybe we can be dangerous.

I've been thinking that we might offer picks for one of Tampa's C's they will need to get rid of: it looks like Cirelli, Gourde or Johnson is gone. I wouldn't mind putting one of them on our 2nd line if we can't find anyone else.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Sure. but prices go up. We cut the fat we can, so maybe we can be dangerous.

I've been thinking that we might offer picks for one of Tampa's C's they will need to get rid of: it looks like Cirelli, Gourde or Johnson is gone. I wouldn't mind putting one of them on our 2nd line if we can't find anyone else.

I've been thinking a Cirelli offer sheet is possible. I think they will try to move Killorn though.

 

[violaswallet]

I've been thinking a Cirelli offer sheet is possible. I think they will try to move Killorn though.

I wouldn't mind adding him: I could see a futures offer, but no idea what they would want.

Edit: this is contingent that other teams could not afford adding them, which might be true: we opened up long term cash today.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I wouldn't mind adding him: I could see a futures offer, but no idea what they would want.

Edit: this is contingent that other teams could not afford adding them, which might be true: we opened up long term cash today.

For Killorn or Cirelli?

 

[violaswallet]

For Killorn or Cirelli?

Any of them or Johnson. Like say if we could get Johnson for a second and a third; he would be a great 2C that would retool us quickly.

 

[Dread Clawz]

Any of them or Johnson. Like say if we could get Johnson for a second and a third; he would be a great 2C that would retool us quickly.

Yeah I'm assuming that Tampa wants a futures based offer with preferably no salary coming back.

 

[violaswallet]

Yeah I'm assuming that Tampa wants a futures based offer with preferably no salary coming back.

Problem is if they want a 1st round pick, but I would not be terribly opposed to swapping for Cirelli.

Zito was part of the team that stole Panarin from Chicago, so he is smart. After this, I think we could re-sign Weegar, bring in Johnson and sign Hoff and Boro and still be under the cap... That would give us:

Huby (protect)-Barky (protect)-Horn
Hoff (protect)-Johnston (protect)-Connolly
Vatrano-Borg/Wallmark (protect)-Tippet (exempt)
Toninanto/Wallmark-Acciari (protect)-Hunt
Extra: Saarela

If Borg doesn't transition, protect the better of Vatrano and Connolly.

For D:
Weegs (protect)-Ekblad (protect)
Stralman (leave open)-Stillman (protect if Yandle waives)
Yandle-Boro
Brown/Priskie.

Bob (protect)/Judge

I think this team could make the playoffs.

Dang this PP is better than last year.
Huby-Barky-Horny (upfront)
Yandle-Hoff

PP2:
Vatrano-Johnson-Connolly
Weegar/Ekblad-Tippett

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Offer Cirelli 5 years x $6.5 million - it'd be the 2021 1st and 3rd.
If you go over $6.544 mil, it becomes 2021 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Takes him to 28 years old and free agency.

Or go after Serg instead?

Don't like Gourde's contract but he's the better defensive player out of him and TJ.

 

[violaswallet]

Offer Cirelli 5 years x $6.5 million - it'd be the 2021 1st and 3rd.
If you go over $6.544 mil, it becomes 2021 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
Takes him to 28 years old and free agency.

Don't like Gourde's contract but he's the better defensive player out of him and TJ.

We need a 2C: we have two great defensive Cs in Wally and Acciari.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

We need a 2C: we have two great defensive Cs in Wally and Acciari.

Is Cirelli not capable of becoming a 2C?

 

[violaswallet]

Is Cirelli not capable of becoming a 2C?

I'd put him there: I meant Gourde haha

Cirelli would be the dream...but I think he might be too costly for futures and for the contract.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I'd put him there: I meant Gourde haha

Cirelli would be the dream...but I think he might be too costly for futures and for the contract.

If you OS Cirelli, you pick a D at 12th
If you OS Serg, you pick a C at 12th.

A 1st and 3rd for either is definitely worth it, it's the 2021 1st and if we compete and make playoffs, it's mid to late 1st.
5 years x 6.5 mil = 32. 5 million for a 2C or #3LD
Can't re-sign Hoffman in that scenario though but a 23 yr old 2C > 31 year old sniper and I love Hoff.

Zito would become the villain of the league if he moved Matheson and OS one of those two above.

 

[violaswallet]

If you OS Cirelli, you pick a D at 12th
If you OS Serg, you pick a C at 12th.

A 1st and 3rd for either is definitely worth it, it's the 2021 1st and if we compete and make playoffs, it's mid to late 1st.
5 years x 6.5 mil = 32. 5 million for a 2C or #3LD
Can't re-sign Hoffman in that scenario though but a 23 yr old 2C > 31 year old sniper and I love Hoff.

Zito would become the villain of the league if he moved Matheson and OS one of those two above.

If they sign, I don't think it's clear. Like I'd consider it with Cirelli. Maybe we could move out futures to re-sign Hoff by getting cheaper with Stralman? Take a look at the roster I created above; I think that's a team that could compete.