Official 2019 Draft Thread

[NicolasAubeKubel]

Take a defenseman. York, Soderstrom, Broberg, Byram if for some reason he falls. The defenseman are getting underrated in comparison to the non Jack Hughes forwards near the top of the draft IMO. I like Caufield and Höglander if you take a F.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

What’s the story on German RHD Moritz Seider, he seems like a sleeper top 20 pick.

 

[BigToe]

Button has him #21.

HockeyProspect.com has him #15.

Looks good. Doesn’t have any shift by shift videos though, so I can’t really have an opinion on him.

 

[dats81]

What’s the story on German RHD Moritz Seider, he seems like a sleeper top 20 pick.

In my eyes he is more or less the next Adam Ginning or am I missing something?

Bit more of a scorer in Juniors but I wouldn't call him two way unless you believe Robert Hägg is a two-way D too

 

[Striiker]

I don't want any more Swedish defensemen.

 

[baudib1]

Swedish defensemen win lots of Norris trophies.

 

[denominator]

Running with the assumption of the Flyers picking at 14:

Hughes, Kaako, Podkolzin, Byram, Cozens, Zegras, Turcotte, Dach, and Krebs are an easy top-9 for me. A couple of the next guys are bandied in the top-10 but it's pretty consistent in my consensus rankings that these are the top-9 picks.

I think Spencer Knight goes top-15. You don't see goalies this mature, this consistent, this technically sound, and this athletic very often. Flyers obviously don't want him, but if the Avs miss the playoffs... I believe once you miss out on those top-9 and need help in net, take the goalie. [caveat: goalies are voodoo]

That puts us in the VERY INTERESTING TIER. In no particular order, and split forward/defence:

Boldy
Caufield
Brink
Suzuki
Lavoie
McMichael
Tomasino
Kaliyev

and

Soderstrom
York
Broberg
Harley
Heinola
M. Robertson
Seider

That's a lot of dudes and gives us picks 11-25. It's also a lot of options. I'm gonna start by knocking off the guys I don't want the Flyers to take at 14.

Kaliyev - poor skating and minimal compete level
Suzuki - not outstanding in any way
Lavoie - see: Suzuki
Seider - strong early half, trending down
Robertson - solid, not flashy, but likely a safe later pick
McMichael - late riser, didn't put together a complete season

Which leaves: Boldy, Caufield, Brink, Tomasino at forward and Soderstrom, York, Broberg, Harley, and Heinola on defence. That's enough options that the Flyers should have choices up front or on the backend at #14 off my list.

I often hear that players from stacked teams get overrated. The London Knights get it all the time, so did the Mooseheads for a while. But I look at it the other way - stacked teams are stacked teams for a reason. Jack Hughes can Jack Hughes all he wants but if he has no team around him, he ends up looking like McDavid on the Oilers. This NTDP team is STACKED. So give me Boldy, Caufield, or Brink (in that order) or give me a defenceman.

See above, give me York if we're taking a defenceman. If he's gone and my 3 NTDP forwards are gone, give me Soderstrom or Heinola. Soderstrom has trended upwards all season and consistently sits in the 10-12 range in my rankings. Scouts are seeing the completeness of his game. Heinola plays the game differently. He is a very different skater and pivots in a special way. Guys like this that play the game a bit differently always catch my eye and I think he has a big future in the NHL. Broberg and Harley are also solid choices but to me they're a step behind these guys.

So in my mock draft, once we get out of the top-10, the Flyers board should look like this:

11) Boldy
12) Caufield
13) Brink
14) York
15) Heinola
16) Soderstrom
17) Tomasino
18) Broberg
19) Harley

 

[Striiker]

Swedish defensemen win lots of Norris trophies.

Not the kind we draft

 

[NicolasAubeKubel]

I’d rather have York than Boldy or Caufield. You can’t go wrong with drafting a skilled smooth skating defenseman with high hockey IQ.

 

[Chinatown88]

I think I'm leaning towards BPA. But I have a soft spot for Caufield.

 

[daynus]

Personally I like Caufield and Soderstrom in our wheelhouse.
I remember the first time I saw Caufield team America had this defender and he was 6’6 Caufield beside him, I was trying to figure out how big he was, think he was 5-6 about a buck 45.

 

[The Madrigal]

Unless the value is trash where they pick, they should really be honing in on a defenseman with their first round pick.

 

[dats81]

That's a lot of dudes and gives us picks 11-25. It's also a lot of options. I'm gonna start by knocking off the guys I don't want the Flyers to take at 14.

Kaliyev - poor skating and minimal compete level
Suzuki - not outstanding in any way
Lavoie - see: Suzuki
Seider - strong early half, trending down
Robertson - solid, not flashy, but likely a safe later pick
McMichael - late riser, didn't put together a complete season

Suzuki has outstanding hockey sense. He would have been a typical Ron Hextall type of pick.

 

[GKJ]

The Flyers actually need some focus on drafting defensemen. After having so many high-enders early on, Hextall really went heavy on forwards.

Should focus on later round prospects too, I think chances are high we’re trading our 1st rounder unless we win the lottery again.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

11) Boldy
12) Caufield
13) Brink
14) York
15) Heinola
16) Soderstrom
17) Tomasino
18) Broberg
19) Harley

I feel like I say this every year but that is a good crop and everyone is about on the same level so I would look to trade back (though I would Caufield on a higher tier all by himself in this group). Not too far but back enough where you can still grab one of these guys. I bet there will be someone that is gaga over Caufield if he is on the board when they pick and they can probably extract a good return if that's the case (and if they are not sold on Caufield).

 

[Curufinwe]

Looking at this guy in the 2nd round at around #45.

Graeme Clarke at eliteprospects.com

 

[denominator]

Circling back on a couple of things.

And why is Höglander projected so low?

I don't know. I get him confused with Simon Holmstrom all the time, maybe others do the same?

RE: Flyers should take a defenceman

Anyone that is an Athletic subscriber should read Pronman's article on drafting a goalie in the first round. He doesn't just cover goaltending, he also covers statistics on quality of players from each round.

I don't want to get into paywall sharing trouble, so I'll keep it vague. One of the key conclusions I reached was that unless you're getting a top-flight defenceman (Byram), you are as likely to hit a top-6 prospect in the second round as you are in the late half of the first. It's not the same with forwards: there are the top-flight guys, top-9 projections later in the first round, and then hopes/prayers/projects in the second and beyond.

With the Flyers picking at 14(ish), they're right in that weird spot between the true top-flight guys and the dreamers. But, picking a forward at 14 and a defenceman at 45 has a higher probability of hitting on both players than the inverse. When you get down in the 35-50 range of my rankings, there are some interesting names on the backend: Honka, Constantinou, Helleson, Bjornfot, Vlasic, Johnson, Thomson, Kokkonen, Thrun. There are obviously interesting names on forward there too, but I'd be more confident taking a guy like Johnson, Thomson, or the NDTP guys at 45 than a flyer (pun INTENDED) on a Poulin, Holmstrom, Nikolayev, or Leason.

League Quality

He can be a bit hard to listen to if you're a good western Canadian like me, you guys out east might have an easier time listening to Steve Kournianos yell at you for an hour. He recently put out an episode comparing leagues from the perspective of "where did top-10 NHL scorers get drafted from"? You can take Steve's interpretations as you will, but what I want to point out is the data collecting he's done.

The Draft Analyst | Podcasts, TV and Radio

[episode 33]

Of particular note is that with rare exception (Anze Kopitar), European players that are drafted out of the junior leagues do not go on to become top-10 scorers in the NHL. All other post-lockout top-10 NHL scorers have been drafted out of the NTDP, CHL, or pro Euro leagues. His argument is that shows there is no difference in CHL vs Euro quality of opponents, but I see it as a big red flag for players like Simon Holmstrom, who is projected to be an early-mid second round pick but has played the entirety of the season in the SuperElit. Top level prospects in Europe should play in the top level leagues. I would wager that top level prospects in the CHL (ie Cozens, Dach, Byram, et al) would do reasonably well in the AHL in their draft year if they were eligible to play at such a level. Their stats may not be as noteworthy but they would likely develop faster given a higher level of competition and playing with and against pros.

 

[BigToe]

Not a fan of focusing on a certain postition unless your prospect pool has absolutely nothing. BPA every time.

 

[Tripod]

Take the BPA, but for sure, we could use a Dman with top 4 upside...ideally top pairing, added to our prospect pool. With expansion coming in 2 years, that could be a need at the NHL level.

But really, we are deep everywhere with prospects. We need to somehow find more top end guys rather than just depth. So maybe you swing for the fence on a Caufield. Whoever we pick, is likely 2-4 years away anyways.

But it won't surprise me if we trade it either for the right deal. At least we have options with so many assets.

 

[Magua]

I actually like where we pick better, given our needs and organizational standing, than a lot of top 10 teams with more/certain spots to fill.

BPA and fit really should align. And I'm not sure the talent level drops off for some of these guys, as long as you pick wisely.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Unless the value is trash where they pick, they should really be honing in on a defenseman with their first round pick.

I’m in agreement with you, the Flyers have more quality prospect forwards in the pipeline but not as many defenseman.

I would be looking at Byram, Soderstrom and York if the flyers pick 11 to 14, I wouldn’t expect Byram or Soderstrom to be there but if Byram’s still around he’s my top pick for a defenseman.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

The Flyers actually need some focus on drafting defensemen. After having so many high-enders early on, Hextall really went heavy on forwards.

Should focus on later round prospects too, I think chances are high we’re trading our 1st rounder unless we win the lottery again.

What would the Flyers acquire for their first round pick? Are they trading down? Are they trading for a young forward or defenseman? If so, what team would be willing to give up a young forward or defenseman for said pick? Maybe it's just me, but I really don't think Fletcher is going to do anything. I think he sits back and goes about his business and makes the pick at 14.

 

[BigToe]

I’m in agreement with you, the Flyers have more quality prospect forwards in the pipeline but not as many defenseman.

I would be looking at Byram, Soderstrom and York if the flyers pick 11 to 14, I wouldn’t expect Byram or Soderstrom to be there but if Byram’s still around he’s my top pick for a defenseman.

Can’t believe some have Byram ranked third.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Can’t believe some have Byram ranked third.

From what I’ve read and seen of this kid, he’s got the goods to be a really good defenseman over a long career and he’s only 17.

I don’t think he’ll come into the NHL right away but Byram will need atleast 1 more season in the WHL to mature and gain muscle.

 

[GKJ]

What would the Flyers acquire for their first round pick? Are they trading down? Are they trading for a young forward or defenseman? If so, what team would be willing to give up a young forward or defenseman for said pick? Maybe it's just me, but I really don't think Fletcher is going to do anything. I think he sits back and goes about his business and makes the pick at 14.

Somebody rebuilding or clearing money would. Fletcher is under directive to make big things happen and the Flyers have had 4 1st round picks in the past 2 years and 7 over the past 4, and the odd year they had 3 2nds. If this team is going to jump forward, they’re going to start trading high draft picks. And the fact they drafted so well gives them the latitude to do it