Official 2019 Draft Thread

[Tripod]

Kapanen is a good young player but really overrated by many on this board, IMO.

He is no Nylander

 

[baudib1]

If it comes down to it, Toronto will pay someone like Arizona with picks to take Marleau and/or Zaitsev off their hands to clear cap room to keep Marner and Nylander.

Kapanen is a great skater, he scores goals and kills penalties. We have exactly zero players with those attributes; he's what we're hoping Farabee becomes.

He is no Nylander

Nylander would be a good plan B if we don't get Panarin but the cost would be prohibitive IMO.

 

[Tripod]

From the Toronto board one of the key complaints about Babcock and Matthews is that the
Johnsson-Matthews-Kapanen line didn't work because all of them are shooters.

What a sin...lol. But it is true that you need a mix.

Up here, there is lots of talk of the rift between Babcock and Dubas. Babcock wants more grit, Dubas wants skill.

And Babs just said one of the reasons they are losing is because they have bad depth. That's a direct shot at Dubas. Hockey Central was talking about it today saying the only reason you say it publically, is to make a point to others. They also were ripping Muzzin as not being a fit because he likes to slow the play down, but the rest of the Leafs want to play all out up tempo.

Deep down, Babs wants more guys like Kadri and less skill only guys.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

He is no Nylander

Not even close.

 

[Ghosts Beer]

What a sin...lol. But it is true that you need a mix.

Up here, there is lots of talk of the rift between Babcock and Dubas. Babcock wants more grit, Dubas wants skill.

And Babs just said one of the reasons they are losing is because they have bad depth. That's a direct shot at Dubas. Hockey Central was talking about it today saying the only reason you say it publically, is to make a point to others. They also were ripping Muzzin as not being a fit because he likes to slow the play down, but the rest of the Leafs want to play all out up tempo.

Deep down, Babs wants more guys like Kadri and less skill only guys.

They’re loaded with skill, but extremely soft. I understand Babcock’s point completely.

 

[Rebels57]

If it comes down to it, Toronto will pay someone like Arizona with picks to take Marleau and/or Zaitsev off their hands to clear cap room to keep Marner and Nylander.

Kapanen is a great skater, he scores goals and kills penalties. We have exactly zero players with those attributes; he's what we're hoping Farabee becomes.



Nylander would be a good plan B if we don't get Panarin but the cost would be prohibitive IMO.

Marleau has a NMC and there is no way he waves it to finish out his career on a bottom-feeder/pretender.

They'd have to pay a hefty price to move Zaitsevs contract.

 

[Tripod]

They’re loaded with skill, but extremely soft. I understand Babcock’s point completely.

Oh I agree. You need balance. Remember, I am one of those people who have said for years that they like Wilson or Miles. That's one thing I liked with NAK is that he seems to be a guy who can produce at ES all while hitting. We could use that on our 4th line.

Also why I like Morin because I think he brings an element that our team DOES lack. In games like yesterday when there is no emotion, he can change that and others feed off it.

The Leafs skill vs the Bruins grit is going to be a great series.

 

[Rebels57]

What a sin...lol. But it is true that you need a mix.

Up here, there is lots of talk of the rift between Babcock and Dubas. Babcock wants more grit, Dubas wants skill.

And Babs just said one of the reasons they are losing is because they have bad depth. That's a direct shot at Dubas. Hockey Central was talking about it today saying the only reason you say it publically, is to make a point to others. They also were ripping Muzzin as not being a fit because he likes to slow the play down, but the rest of the Leafs want to play all out up tempo.

Deep down, Babs wants more guys like Kadri and less skill only guys.

How crazy would it be if they fire Babs and hire Keefe this summer?

 

[Tripod]

How crazy would it be if they fire Babs and hire Keefe this summer?

That would be funny.

But Kyper was saying that the Leafs have an unusual setup where the coach is the most powerful guy which is rare. And that is part of the struggle between he and Dubas. Rookie GM vs highest paid coach that he did not hire.

It's not unreasonable to think that Dubas would rather Keefe but in no way do I think Babcock would get fired this summer even if they lost to Boston. But if they have ANOTHER 1st rd knockout in 2020, it would not surprise me.

 

[Magua]

I'd probably move our 2019 1st for Kapanen to be honest.

Stop being so desperate to offload a top 13-14 pick.

Kapanen, while a solid player, isn't that much of a difference maker related to usage/RW depth/expansion to move that type of controlled asset. Those don't get moved often. Bitch you cray cray.

 

[Rebels57]

Stop being so desperate to offload a top 13-14 pick.

Kapanen, while a solid player, isn't that much of a difference maker related to usage/RW depth/expansion to move that type of controlled asset. Those don't get moved often. ***** you cray cray.

I like Kapanen. Deal with it! He's 22 and has room to grow. He can PK. He likes to shoot. He's quick. I love his dad. Anyone we draft at 13-14 has a low likelihood at being a BETTER player than Kapanen is/will be. This makes us a better team next season. I'm sick of living for the draft lottery and never taking any chances. It's also only something i'd consider if we strike out on UFAs and aren't able to just steal him with an offer sheet.

 

[baudib1]

Stop being so desperate to offload a top 13-14 pick.

Kapanen, while a solid player, isn't that much of a difference maker related to usage/RW depth/expansion to move that type of controlled asset. Those don't get moved often. ***** you cray cray.

I would still do it. You're not getting Farabee/Sanheim every year at that slot, especially with Hextall/Pryor gone.

Isn't Kapanen already what we want Farabee to be? Maybe he's on the middling/low end of upsides, but he's that player now and he's 22.

 

[Magua]

A draft pick is a liquid asset. Without cap concerns. Expansion concerns. Projection concerns. Look at this past deadline: teams do not want to trade even late 1sts for rentals anymore. Highly valued players like Karlsson and ROR go for late 1st(s) or equivalent. This is a top half pick.

You can use it to select a player you view as having great potential, which is a gamble, with rewards/risk to follow. You can package that liquid asset, especially a pick that high, to go after a big difference maker. Not a RW who slots behind Voracek, arguably Konecny, and with some other high potential wings on the way.

Kapanen is a good player. He's not a "move that high of a pick and worry about usage later" kind of player. Then pay him his RFA contract. Not to me at least. Worth mention that 24/37 of his ES points are with his most frequent center: Auston Matthews. Not taking credit away, but his production isn't in a vacuum. I'm okay with moving that pick, but it better be big game hunting. Not: "I want to move it desperately, and I like him, so he'll do."

 

[Rebels57]

A draft pick is a liquid asset. Without cap concerns. Expansion concerns. Projection concerns. Look at this past deadline: teams do not want to trade even late 1sts for rentals anymore. Highly valued players like Karlsson and ROR go for late 1st(s) or equivalent. This is a top half pick.

You can use it to select a player you view as having great potential, which is a gamble, with rewards/risk to follow. You can package that liquid asset, especially a pick that high, to go after a big difference maker. Not a RW who slots behind Voracek, arguably Konecny, and with some other high potential wings on the way.

Kapanen is a good player. He's not a "move that high of a pick and worry about usage later" kind of player. Then pay him his RFA contract. Not to me at least. Worth mention that 24/37 of his ES points are with his most frequent center: Auston Matthews. Not taking credit away, but his production isn't in a vacuum. I'm okay with moving that pick, but it better be big game hunting. Not: "I want to move it desperately, and I like him, so he'll do."

Fair enough. Would still be okay if they did though

 

[deadhead]

Farabee has more upside than Kapanen, he's excelled at a younger age.
However, there's no guarantee we land someone as good this year between #12-14, either.

Kapanen is having a breakout year after 2 1/2 seasons in the AHL, he's going to end up with 40 or so ES points in a top 6 role.
Last year however, he had 9 points in 38g, he's an example of patient development.
He does play the PK well which is a definite plus.
He's probably a better player than TK right now, but he's also almost a year older.
He's a LH who plays RW, which would be an interesting fit for us.

If the pick was in the 20s, I'd trade it and NAK for example for Kapanen in a heartbeat.
Maybe something like Vorobyev, NAK and our 1st for Kapanen and their first.

 

[Stizzle]

A draft pick is a liquid asset. Without cap concerns. Expansion concerns. Projection concerns. Look at this past deadline: teams do not want to trade even late 1sts for rentals anymore. Highly valued players like Karlsson and ROR go for late 1st(s) or equivalent. This is a top half pick.

You can use it to select a player you view as having great potential, which is a gamble, with rewards/risk to follow. You can package that liquid asset, especially a pick that high, to go after a big difference maker. Not a RW who slots behind Voracek, arguably Konecny, and with some other high potential wings on the way.

Kapanen is a good player. He's not a "move that high of a pick and worry about usage later" kind of player. Not to me at least. Worth mention that 24/37 of his ES points are with his most frequent center: Auston Matthews. Not taking credit away, but his production isn't in a vacuum. I'm okay with moving that pick, but it better be big game hunting. Not: "I want to move it desperately, and he'll do."

This place is pure insanity. Magua is a saint for taking the time to explain these things.

I'm aware everyone wants to win now, no longer likes the draft, and is generally impatient despite our excellent draft record.

Also, has anyone considered that we might have to trade our 1st round pick for expansion draft considerations soon, and trading it this year would be extra damaging?

Anyone we draft at 13-14 has a low likelihood at being a BETTER player than Kapanen is/will be.

I don't agree with this, and it's poor logic, and a poor way of rationalizing it. You are giving up so much opportunity cost. All for a middle 6 winger due a big raise?

Honestly, we are spoiled by our scouts draft record. It's amazing. Yet, every year, we get inundated with low upside, short-sighted trade proposals.

 

[Rebels57]

This place is pure insanity. Magua is a saint for taking the time to explain these things.

I'm aware everyone wants to win now, no longer likes the draft, and is generally impatient despite our excellent draft record.

Also, has anyone considered that we might have to trade our 1st round pick for expansion draft considerations soon, and trading it this year would be extra damaging?



I don't agree with this, and it's poor logic, and a poor way of rationalizing it. You are giving up so much opportunity cost. All for a middle 6 winger due a big raise?

Honestly, we are spoiled by our scouts draft record. It's amazing. Yet, every year, we get inundated with low upside, short-sighted trade proposals.

Kapanen is already a better defensively, less gritty version of Konecny. That's not worth a pick in the 13/14 range in an "average at best" draft?

Who in that range would you say you would prefer to have in the system instead of having 22 year old Kapanen in the top 9 for the forseeable future?

Again, keep in mind this is only something i'd consider if we strike out with UFA targets and are not able to offer sheet him.

 

[Magua]

Anyone we draft at 13-14 has a low likelihood at being a BETTER player than Kapanen is/will be.

Yeah, I'm not a big fan of this logic. I hate reducing unique players down to a % chance based on historical records of bad drafting teams. You do this a lot. There are ALWAYS better players than Kapanen each draft outside the top 10. We're picking just outside the top 10, not 28. Find them.

Had we stayed at 13 in the Patrick draft, taken Brannstrom, and then traded Brannstrom for a signed Mark Stone, how would you feel? Better than Kapanen? We just got Farabee at 14. I absolutely believe his potential is > Kapanen. We got Sanheim at 17 (most people wanted Kapanen over him anyway). Frost at 28. You're telling me someone -- whether it's York or Soderstrom or Brink or whoever -- has a low chance to be equal or better than Kapanen? You can point to the outlier, but I don't mind our odds. There's interesting names. The value of a young prospect who hits at all 0.5-1 year later is enormous.

If we reduce all this to risk/reward, I'd say: is Kapanen's reward in our organization with all our wingers > risk of finding a better player? I'm skeptical. It boils down to: we don't need Kapanen. He'd be an expensive luxury. He's not a major difference maker here. I'm quite comfortable rolling the dice at 13/14 over him, knowing we have Kapanens in the system already.

I also need to repeat for the 4th time: you don't have to cash in that asset on a prospect. You can just cash it in on a better player than Kapanen. It's the same impatient logic that gets you guys like Hartman over a 2nd rounder that you package for the next Hoffman/Skinner.

 

[Stizzle]

Kapanen is already a better defensively, less gritty version of Konecny. That's not worth a pick in the 13/14 range in an "average at best" draft?

He does not possess the value of Konecny. Stop it. Konecny doesn't get to play with Austin Matthews. Konecny has had to deal with f***ing Hakstol his whole career, and still outscores Kapanen.

Also, go back and read Magua's post. Apparently, you didn't learn anything.

Who in that range would you say you would prefer to have in the system instead of having 22 year old Kapanen in the top 9 for the forseeable future?

How the heck should I know? It's March. Any non-Flyers game I watch is our own prospects.

He's Kasperi Kapanen, not Mitch Marner. That is not big game hunting. It would be a low upside proposition.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

People overstate the quality depth of a draft every year for better or worse. Save for outlier drafts like 2003 & 2015 they all pretty much come out similar in the end when you look at from a data perspective.

They’re not perfect (no one is) but the Flyers have about a good as a percentage as anybody in the league under this scouting staff at getting hits in the first round.

 

[deadhead]

That assumes we could have gotten a 2nd instead of Hartman, we don't actually know what was offered, sometimes teams prefer to move a player for salary/roster reasons (and clubhouse chemistry, rather than demoting a starter).

I'm fine with Hartman, he's a better player than NAK will probably be (I think he's gone, they don't see to have confidence in him) and will be a solid 4th line/3rd line option if they can agree on a reasonable short-term RFA deal (doubt he's in their long-term plans). You rarely get top six talents for a package lead by a late 2nd rd pick (#35, aka Ratcliffe is worth far more than #52-53, what we would have received in lui of Hartman).

I agree that #12-13 might be rich for Kapanen, but not #21-23. The odds are lower that you'll land the next TK (equivalent value) or Frost (higher value) with the lower pick than the next Farabee with the higher pick.

 

[deadhead]

He does not possess the value of Konecny. Stop it. Konecny doesn't get to play with Austin Matthews. Konecny has had to deal with ****ing Hakstol his whole career, and still outscores Kapanen.

TK's big second half last year was playing with G and Couts. Pretty equivalent.
This year he's scoring at the same pace as Kapanen, but is horrible in terms of possession and defense, and doesn't contribute on the PK.
So while TK has more offensive upside, Kapanen is a much more well rounded forward.

Kapanen is also full sized and should get stronger, which means he can improve along the boards, TK looks maxed out and while he has a big heart, pretty much has to play in space.

 

[baudib1]

This place is pure insanity. Magua is a saint for taking the time to explain these things.

I'm aware everyone wants to win now, no longer likes the draft, and is generally impatient despite our excellent draft record.

Also, has anyone considered that we might have to trade our 1st round pick for expansion draft considerations soon, and trading it this year would be extra damaging?



I don't agree with this, and it's poor logic, and a poor way of rationalizing it. You are giving up so much opportunity cost. All for a middle 6 winger due a big raise?

Honestly, we are spoiled by our scouts draft record. It's amazing. Yet, every year, we get inundated with low upside, short-sighted trade proposals.

I think you have to acknowledge that our draft picks have less value going forward than they did in the past. Fletcher's done OK not amazing in that area in the draft.

It's clear we're not going to get full value from some of the great picks we've made in the past. For instance, Vorobyev may be a fine player but it doesn't look like he's going to get his shot here. Hey, great pick/value, good job on the scouting, but if he doesn't play and he doesn't have any trade value it didn't do much.

There were a lot of people last year who wanted to trade the O'Brien pick. Even if he pans out, which is certainly questionable, it's going to take 3-4 years and maybe more. Every year we ended up missing/barely making playoffs with a roster that has 5-6 obvious holes. One of these years we should probably try to address them.

All of the recent Cup winners have traded first-round picks along the way. Tampa built its team by drafting well + trading a lot of their first-round picks after a couple years of development (the Lightning don't have a first-round pick after 2009 on their roster).

 

[baudib1]

Kapenen's most common linemate this year is Patrick Marleau. Matthews is second.

Marleau 542.13
Matthews 536:04
Kadri 261:38
Johnsson 231:52

He's barely played at all with Tavares or Marner, who are the big play drivers and scorers on the team.

Konecny's most common linemate is Claude Giroux.

Giroux 645:30
JVR 347:07
Couturier 328:34
Patrick 132:28

Konecny 73 games 22-24-46 Corsi% 50.5 REL +2.4% xGF -7.2 GAR 5.8
Kapanen 69 19-23-42 Corsi 52.6 REL +2.3% xGF +3.0 GAR 8.7

I don't think there's an argument to be made that Konecny is really a lot better than Kapanen.

 

[Stizzle]

Tampa built its team by drafting well + trading a lot of their first-round picks after a couple years of development (the Lightning don't have a first-round pick after 2009 on their roster).

Sorry, there's so much to debate in your big post and I don't have the patience to do so right now. But the quoted part is factual incorrect.