Official 2019-20 Coyotes Roster Discussion #2

[rt]

Crazy to think for Kessel to get 20g and 60pts, he will have to score 16g and 29a for 45p in his last 53gp this season.

Thats 25g 45a 70p pace over 82gp. So to end up a 20g 60p guy this season, he has to produce as though he’s a 25g 70p guy for the remaining 53 games.

It’s not impossible. He’s had that pace before. And if he can pull it off, will be huge for our team. To have someone that productive over the last 53 games would be huge.

 

[Grimes]

Crazy to think for Kessel to get 20g and 60pts, he will have to score 16g and 29a for 45p in his last 53gp this season.

Thats 25g 45a 70p pace over 82gp. So to end up a 20g 60p guy this season, he has to produce as though he’s a 25g 70p guy for the remaining 53 games.

It’s not impossible. He’s had that pace before. And if he can pull it off, will be huge for our team. To have someone that productive over the last 53 games would be huge.

I'd be "thrilled" if this happened. It would help take pressure off some of the younger guys who are holding up the team right now too. Maybe allow Keller to grip his stick a little less tightly.

Great insight on the Kessel article Rabbit!

 

[RemoAZ]

Let's hope last game gives that Kessel Soda Crouse line some momentum. If Kessel catches fire and helps that line become a consistent scoring threat, we'll be a lot tougher to beat and a lot more fun to watch. You have to wonder how long the goalies can carry up with the pressure of knowing we pretty much have no shot if the other team scores 3.

 

[Jakey53]

Let's hope last game gives that Kessel Soda Crouse line some momentum. If Kessel catches fire and helps that line become a consistent scoring threat, we'll be a lot tougher to beat and a lot more fun to watch. You have to wonder how long the goalies can carry up with the pressure of knowing we pretty much have no shot if the other team scores 3.

That's the bonus of having two #1 goalies. If one gets tired, injured or hits a slump, the other can cover. That's why I don't trade either this year.

 

[TheLegend]

Another writer for The Athletic with a breakdown on Kessel....

 

[rt]

A lot is being made of Kessel's production, and for good reason. I definitely understand the angst. I'm impatient and nervous, too.

I would like to discuss Keller a little bit, though. Why isn't he better?

I remember listening to Charlie McAvoy on Spittin' Chiclets a while back, and him talking about how supremely confident Keller is. I believe McAvoy may have said Keller is the most confident person he's ever played with. Keller apparently in his draft interviews telling teams if they pass on him, they're passing on the next Pat Kane, or something super cocky along those lines. His first season in the NHL you could see it. He just expected to finish his chances. He just expected to create chances. It's like he walked into the NHL and it was no big deal and he was going to own it. We all thought we had a superstar coming.

So why the production drop? I don't think it's a crisis of confidence. Not from such a confident guy. It's not like he got killed with big hits and was terribly injured or had any real reason that we can pinpoint to change his game, and stay more on the perimeter and play a soft, tentative, ineffective game. So what happened?

Was it an adjustment issue? The league adjusted and he didn't answer back? Again, I have to go on what I've heard about this player. We've heard from Chayka, Tocchet, Bissonnette, McAvoy, and Strome in various interviews that Keller takes his preparation extremely seriously. That he's the biggest, most dedicated hockey nerd on the team. That he's always watching tape, and always analyzing things. He doesn't seem like a guy who just can't figure it out. He's teased a lot for being dumb, but he's universally praised for having a great mind for hockey.

He has supreme skill, total confidence, and unquestioned dedication. So what the f***? Why isn't he as good as he was when he was a rookie? There's more talent around him now than there was then. What is going on?

 

[rt]

Would swap Stepan for him if his term wasn't so egregious.

Rick Tocchet loves Derek Stepan more than life itself.

 

[The Feckless Puck]

I would like to discuss Keller a little bit, though. Why isn't he better?

I say we put a mandatory limit on the phrase "He'll figure it out" at Keller's 26th birthday.

 

[Mosby]

Keller was our best player by a good margin vs. CBJ. He's probably whiffed on about 10 for-sure goals this season (set up by Kessel, no less). It's coming.

 

[cobra427]

A lot is being made of Kessel's production, and for good reason. I definitely understand the angst. I'm impatient and nervous, too.

I would like to discuss Keller a little bit, though. Why isn't he better?

I remember listening to Charlie McAvoy on Spittin' Chiclets a while back, and him talking about how supremely confident Keller is. I believe McAvoy may have said Keller is the most confident person he's ever played with. Keller apparently in his draft interviews telling teams if they pass on him, they're passing on the next Pat Kane, or something super cocky along those lines. His first season in the NHL you could see it. He just expected to finish his chances. He just expected to create chances. It's like he walked into the NHL and it was no big deal and he was going to own it. We all thought we had a superstar coming.

So why the production drop? I don't think it's a crisis of confidence. Not from such a confident guy. It's not like he got killed with big hits and was terribly injured or had any real reason that we can pinpoint to change his game, and stay more on the perimeter and play a soft, tentative, ineffective game. So what happened?

Was it an adjustment issue? The league adjusted and he didn't answer back? Again, I have to go on what I've heard about this player. We've heard from Chayka, Tocchet, Bissonnette, McAvoy, and Strome in various interviews that Keller takes his preparation extremely seriously. That he's the biggest, most dedicated hockey nerd on the team. That he's always watching tape, and always analyzing things. He doesn't seem like a guy who just can't figure it out. He's teased a lot for being dumb, but he's universally praised for having a great mind for hockey.

He has supreme skill, total confidence, and unquestioned dedication. So what the ****? Why isn't he as good as he was when he was a rookie? There's more talent around him now than there was then. What is going on?

Maybe in year 1 there was some puck luck for Keller and teams not really preparing for him specifically as a rookie and knowing the Coyotes were not a good team. Keller didn't get the toughest matchups. Now he gets tougher matchups and teams are better prepared, maybe the same last year. Keller might be a 55 point winger, not much more. I think Kessel is running into the same thing, teams are looking for him, he isn't the third or4th best scorer by reputation in AZ like he was in Pitt.

I would have patience with both, as we know they are capable of a 65+ point pace from here through the rest of the year. If you said Kessel/Keller will average a 65 point pace combined, rest of the way, thats par for the course. I still think it is possible like 40/60 or 50/50 odds of that happening.

 

[XX]

A lot is being made of Kessel's production, and for good reason. I definitely understand the angst. I'm impatient and nervous, too.

I would like to discuss Keller a little bit, though. Why isn't he better?

Keller is working to get chances, just not converting. The advanced stats show this.
Kessel is not working to get chances, and is not converting on really any of the few he does get. The advanced stats show this.

Kessel has missed the net almost every time he has been in alone on the goalie. His shot seems to have left him for the moment.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Keller was our best player by a good margin vs. CBJ. He's probably whiffed on about 10 for-sure goals this season (set up by Kessel, no less). It's coming.

This is true...he's had at least 4 goal line unbelievable that he couldn't put it in the net with the goalie completely void of the play. At some point it will have to happen...at least I'm still hoping for that. He's looked much better lately.

 

[Neighborhood Coyote]

This is true...he's had at least 4 goal line unbelievable that he couldn't put it in the net with the goalie completely void of the play. At some point it will have to happen...at least I'm still hoping for that. He's looked much better lately.

Most definitely... if Keller had buried even 50% of these chances so far we would probably not be having this convo about him. And all that would have changed is that he would have executed slightly better in those fractions of seconds.

Guess that could be said about any missed goal/chance, though. He's just got to execute when he does get the chances (which he is getting so that's good) and his season will start looking sunnier. Seeing him score that PP goal last game was nice and he seemed a bit more assertive with his play, which I totally wanna see more of.

 

[Grimes]

Not using any advanced stats here, just eye ball test and memory so I could be off.

I feel like last season Keller became much more of a parameter player and looked timid to go to the net. He kind of did the opposite thing as Boedker where he would drive up the wall hoping to break in the middle and if lanes became clogged instead of trying to make a play or skate back to the blue line to cycle he would just kind of let the play die on the wall either by a pass in traffic or by being pinned by a defender. It felt like he needed to score on the rush or PP or else he couldn't set anything up at all.

He looked similar at the start of the season but has recently been really driving towards the net or cutting into the slot. I think luck is just not on his side this year, but he is beating defenders and driving the play much better than last season a third of the way through this year.

 

[rt]

Not using any advanced stats here, just eye ball test and memory so I could be off.

I feel like last season Keller became much more of a parameter player and looked timid to go to the net. He kind of did the opposite thing as Boedker where he would drive up the wall hoping to break in the middle and if lanes became clogged instead of trying to make a play or skate back to the blue line to cycle he would just kind of let the play die on the wall either by a pass in traffic or by being pinned by a defender. It felt like he needed to score on the rush or PP or else he couldn't set anything up at all.

He looked similar at the start of the season but has recently been really driving towards the net or cutting into the slot. I think luck is just not on his side this year, but he is beating defenders and driving the play much better than last season a third of the way through this year.

Someone asked earlier in the season what was going on with him, and I posted this:

"Timidity crept sneakily and silently into his game towards the end of his rookie season. It got its nasty hooks into him like a succubus and has been draining the effectiveness out of his game like blood ever since.

He hasn’t been able to shake it. It’s the monkey on his back that causes him to pass when he should shoot, miss wide open nets high and wide, double clutch on the puck, no look drop to nobody instead of driving the lane, and ceaselessly defer the puck ineffectually on the power play.

He’s shown in flashes he can play in the NHL at near-dominant levels. He absolutely has the skill to do so consistently. By all accounts he puts in the work to make it happen. But for whatever reason, when he hops over those boards, in real games, self-doubt seems to sink in."

Hopefully the last couple of weeks are the turning point. That would be huge for us. Maybe all of the Kessel articles coming out and all of the talk about him, and his health returning to him, all work to help Phil get going and be Phil again. We've got over 62% of possible points this season without getting the results from these two. How much better can we be if they heat up? It's an exciting possibility.

 

[TheLegend]

 

[Hogan20]

Second best goal differential in the West as well (+15). Only Colorado is ahead of us. at +25.

 

[Lawson of Anarchy]

I've always been a big Richie fan. Last night I don't think he remained standing after any faceoff. And he isn't driving the PK like he was last year. I was surprised to see he was 40% from the dot last night as he looked weaker than that. Sad that he is losing his magic - such a great contributor to this team.

 

[rt]

Second best goal differential in the West as well (+15). Only Colorado is ahead of us. at +25.

Crazy. Also insane that 30 games into the season, there are only FOUR teams in the entire league with more points.

 

[moosemeister]

I’m in favor of sitting Richie for a game and playing Hayton there.

 

[Hogan20]

Crazy. Also insane that 30 games into the season, there are only FOUR teams in the entire league with more points.

I think Boston and Washington are in a league of their own right now. I say we're probably in the middle of the Tier 2 group (St. Louis, Winnipeg, Colorado, Edmonton, Vegas, NYI, Philly, Carolina).

 

[Prarievarg]

I’m in favor of sitting Richie for a game and playing Hayton there.

Or for like 10 games. Kid needs some consistency, and not consistently scratched.

 

[Jakey53]

A lot is being made of Kessel's production, and for good reason. I definitely understand the angst. I'm impatient and nervous, too.

I would like to discuss Keller a little bit, though. Why isn't he better?

I remember listening to Charlie McAvoy on Spittin' Chiclets a while back, and him talking about how supremely confident Keller is. I believe McAvoy may have said Keller is the most confident person he's ever played with. Keller apparently in his draft interviews telling teams if they pass on him, they're passing on the next Pat Kane, or something super cocky along those lines. His first season in the NHL you could see it. He just expected to finish his chances. He just expected to create chances. It's like he walked into the NHL and it was no big deal and he was going to own it. We all thought we had a superstar coming.

So why the production drop? I don't think it's a crisis of confidence. Not from such a confident guy. It's not like he got killed with big hits and was terribly injured or had any real reason that we can pinpoint to change his game, and stay more on the perimeter and play a soft, tentative, ineffective game. So what happened?

Was it an adjustment issue? The league adjusted and he didn't answer back? Again, I have to go on what I've heard about this player. We've heard from Chayka, Tocchet, Bissonnette, McAvoy, and Strome in various interviews that Keller takes his preparation extremely seriously. That he's the biggest, most dedicated hockey nerd on the team. That he's always watching tape, and always analyzing things. He doesn't seem like a guy who just can't figure it out. He's teased a lot for being dumb, but he's universally praised for having a great mind for hockey.

He has supreme skill, total confidence, and unquestioned dedication. So what the ****? Why isn't he as good as he was when he was a rookie? There's more talent around him now than there was then. What is going on?

Being confident in the minors is different than in the NHL. Keller was probably one of the top players in the league's he has played in, but he is not in the NHL. It's about confidence and adjustments. That is why it takes time to develop and adjust in the NHL, for most players anyway. That is why I'm not worried about Keller. He will adjust, just have to be a bit more patient.

 

[Gwyddbwyll]

Slowly adjusting to the viewpoint that the Coyotes are looking to add to the team and really dont want to lose any full time roster players.

This means that anyone not on the team is trade currency to this end. Hayton and Soderstrom are too prized by Chayka to be on the block but emerging talents like Jenik, Bahl and Maccelli who ordinarily would be our big hope for the future may well now be significant trade chips for the present :/

 

[Heldig]

Assume the Coyotes acquire Hall without giving up a key roster player...( I say a 1st, Hinostroza and good prospect) how do you see the lines shaking out?

Hall - Stepan - Keller
Garland - Dvorak - Schmaltz
Crouse - Soderberg - Kessel
Grabner - Richardson - Fischer