Official 2016 NHL Draft/College & Europe FA Thread

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Joey Bones

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Just want to apologize for not keeping up to date with this thread as much as last season. Been extremely busy with school and work so I haven't been keeping as close of an eye on this draft class lately. Things are starting to slow down on my end so hopefully I'll be posting more often, but nonetheless this is what I have for right now.

http://www.tsn.ca/forwards-dominate-top-of-2016-nhl-prospect-race-1.391662

If you haven't already seen it, Button has come out with his November rankings and might I say it is a bit weird to put Chychrun at No. 5, behind the likes of Matthews, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk and Laine (who all in retrospect have been having good seasons). It's not to say that Chychrun isn't having a good season, but if he seems to be falling then I wouldn't hesitate to move up big time. Also having a hard time seeing Girard at the No. 12 spot as well as being taken before Juolevi, McLeod and even Sergachev (who has been a pleasant surprise to me).

http://www.thedraftanalyst.com/mock-drafts/2016-nov/#tab-id-1

Also to note, a fellow draft analyst and HFNYR poster, DM23BK30, has created a nice and detailed 4 round mock draft so far. Although I don't really agree on the Ranger picks, there are a lot of detailed blurbs of each choice. Definitely worth the look, but let me get into the Rangers' selections here.

- At No. 59, NYR will not pick a goalie (Vladislav Sukhachyov) if the likes of Moverare, Mete, Rossini, Stanley, Kuokkanen, Joey Anderson, Niemelainen, Hronek, Bratt and Lindgren are all still on the board. There is just no way. Even then, I think they would take Fitzpatrick over Sukhachyov. The Rangers are stacked with the goalie pool they have now. Adding to it is nice and all, but not that early and especially when there is great defensemen that are still available.

- At No. 89, I see what you're thinking with picking Eder, but again with the likes of Felixson, Tuulola, Peeke and Pastujov still available, you'd think they'd be all over them. Not a bad spot for a 3rd rounder though.

- At No. 103, I like the Fox pick. I think, personally, I'd be after Vala or Reunanen, but I'd be fine with smooth skating defender.


Thoughts?
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Very interesting prediction, but I honestly feel Kale Clague, Max Jones and Dillon Dube will go higher than their projected spot.

Seeing Sean Day at 92 is extremely low. If he is available I would love to pick him up in the 2nd round.
 

Joey Bones

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Very interesting prediction, but I honestly feel Kale Clague, Max Jones and Dillon Dube will go higher than their projected spot.

Seeing Sean Day at 92 is extremely low. If he is available I would love to pick him up in the 2nd round.

Day hasn't really shown anything too significant to be considered as a high 1st as originally predicted. I could see him going in rounds 2 or 3, but if I were the GM I'd be very cautious as to what I'm getting out of him. Don't want to make too bold of a move for a guy that will just end up being mediocre.

Max Jones is having some trouble in his first year in the OHL, but I still think he'll end up in the 1st round somewhere. Might not be top 10, as originally thought of, but maybe a good fit for him would be 15-25. It'll be a steal if he goes in the 2nd round or later.

Kale Clague is too good at what he does. He'll go top 15.

Dillon Dube will range from 15-30.
 

Amazing Kreiderman

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Oksanen had 38 in 40 games last season as well. I would love to add him to the team. Very versatile player!
 

Edge

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ISS December rankings

http://www.isshockey.com/iss-hockey-releases-iss-top-30-for-december/

Kind of shocked with the top 10. Head-scratching

I would say that top 10 is pretty arbitrary.

I particularly like Tkachuk and Chychrun, and find myself ever intrigued by Brown.

I also really like Kunin.

If one can forget about his dad for a minute, Tkachuk has the potential to be a very good support option in the mold of Ladd or Landeskog.

Chychrun isn't having the year I thought he would, but I still like him as a long term investment. Max Jones is in the same boat, but I can't quite decide my opinion on him.

Kunin I think is an underrated value. He's not as polished as a lot of the top guys, but I can easily see him surpassing more than few of the players listed ahead of him.
 

Edge

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Day hasn't really shown anything too significant to be considered as a high 1st as originally predicted. I could see him going in rounds 2 or 3, but if I were the GM I'd be very cautious as to what I'm getting out of him. Don't want to make too bold of a move for a guy that will just end up being mediocre.

Max Jones is having some trouble in his first year in the OHL, but I still think he'll end up in the 1st round somewhere. Might not be top 10, as originally thought of, but maybe a good fit for him would be 15-25. It'll be a steal if he goes in the 2nd round or later.

Kale Clague is too good at what he does. He'll go top 15.

Dillon Dube will range from 15-30.

Sean Day is the type of player who I can envision having a nice, long NHL career once enough time has passed that people forget he was once projected as a high/elite pick as a teenager. (See Kevin Klein)

Jones is going to keep GMs up at night. The tools are obvious, but there are a lot of raw elements at work here. At times he looks like the most intriguing prospect not named Auston Matthews. Other times he looks like another raw power forward prospect whose value peaks around draft time and is never quite as high once reality kicks back in.

I'm not unconvinced that Keller doesn't become this year's Zach Parise and make a lot of people wonder how they passed on him.

Nylander is another offensively gifted winger who doesn't seem to get the credit he deserves.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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I don't think its that bad. I'd have no problem with the top ten if Laine was 5th, and the others were pushed back a spot. I think Pierre Luc-Dubois and Gauthier might be a little low. I think Rubtsov will move up a lot between now and the draft. I think he'll be top 10 by then. Besides that, I think its pretty good.

The stereotype/usual grumblings around Finnish prospects holds true this year as well: there's always a concern that the Finns are really good system players, but aren't necessarily dymanic scorers outside of their native systems/teams.

While there are always exceptions to that mindset, it's happened enough that there's always a little bit of a bias against top Finnish prospects.
 

Edge

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Edge

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Speaking of ghosts of college free agents past - Matt O'Connor is off to a rocky start to his pro career.

No wins thus far, a gaa in the AHL of more than 4.2, a save percentage hovering 86.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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The stereotype/usual grumblings around Finnish prospects holds true this year as well: there's always a concern that the Finns are really good system players, but aren't necessarily dymanic scorers outside of their native systems/teams.

While there are always exceptions to that mindset, it's happened enough that there's always a little bit of a bias against top Finnish prospects.

I think Laine's very good. Top 3-4, at least.

I'm starting to think Puljujarvi might be a bust eventually. His numbers in Liiga aren't that good for such a highly rated prospect and he didn't put up numbers at the WJC's last year.

I don't know if I'd take him top 5, although I think his skill-set puts him top five. Will his production match his skill-set at some point?

It would have been crazy to suggest a year ago that Laine has a higher floor, but now I don't think it is.
 

Steve Kournianos

@thedraftanalyst
World Junior A Challenge is coming up in over a week. Jost and Fabbro will both be there but most of Canada teams will be OJHL/BCHL types.

Team USA usually wins this event with a USHL heavy roster.

As for the mock, it's a real pain in the ass because I hate doing rankings this early in the season. I only do a mock instead of rankings because mocks are more fun. The May mock will be more realistic since team needs/ org status will be clearer.

The Rangers should attack this draft with BPA all the way. So many CHL/NCAA UDFA will be available to fill need.
 

Joey Bones

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Speaking of ghosts of college free agents past - Matt O'Connor is off to a rocky start to his pro career.

No wins thus far, a gaa in the AHL of more than 4.2, a save percentage hovering 86.

Agreed, I feel NYR dodged a bullet with that one.
 

Joey Bones

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Sean Day is the type of player who I can envision having a nice, long NHL career once enough time has passed that people forget he was once projected as a high/elite pick as a teenager. (See Kevin Klein)

Jones is going to keep GMs up at night. The tools are obvious, but there are a lot of raw elements at work here. At times he looks like the most intriguing prospect not named Auston Matthews. Other times he looks like another raw power forward prospect whose value peaks around draft time and is never quite as high once reality kicks back in.

I'm not unconvinced that Keller doesn't become this year's Zach Parise and make a lot of people wonder how they passed on him.

Nylander is another offensively gifted winger who doesn't seem to get the credit he deserves.

Agreed with all of this, except on Keller. Think that Keller is more of a playmaker than a two-way dynamo that Parise is. Keller is defensively sound and does kills penalties, though, so I could see what you were going for. But I think he'll end up being more of a solid middle 6 plug, rather than a top 6 two-way threat.

Also good point on Sean Day. Think he has digressed a bit since he was accepted as an exceptional talent. But seeing that the few that have been granted the same status as Day, have had promising NHL careers. Out of Day, Tavares, Ekblad and McDavid have been solid for their respective teams (even though Ekblad and McDavid are very young yet). The only other player that was granted the same status of the four is Joseph Veleno and he'll be eligible for the 2018 draft. But going back to Day, think he still is a good prospect, nonetheless. Just seeing that he got that great privilege, you would think he'd do better.
 

Joey Bones

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I would say that top 10 is pretty arbitrary.

I particularly like Tkachuk and Chychrun, and find myself ever intrigued by Brown.

I also really like Kunin.

If one can forget about his dad for a minute, Tkachuk has the potential to be a very good support option in the mold of Ladd or Landeskog.

Chychrun isn't having the year I thought he would, but I still like him as a long term investment. Max Jones is in the same boat, but I can't quite decide my opinion on him.

Kunin I think is an underrated value. He's not as polished as a lot of the top guys, but I can easily see him surpassing more than few of the players listed ahead of him.

Agreed on Tkachuk on the mold aspect. Think that Ladd is a perfect comparison, however, he's still a bit raw. Was watching some video on him and he seems a bit sluggish at times, but conditioning will help with that. He also needs to shoot more and think that his line mates (Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak) are padding his stats just a tad. But the talent is there and with another year in junior he'd be fine. Same with Max Jones. He hasn't produced like a top 5 prospect should, but he'll still go in the first round. He's too big and nasty. He's so hungry for the net, it's ridiculous.

Chychrun is fine, he'll stay in the top 3. Think he's the only real threat for passing Matthews as No. 1. The thing with Chychrun is off ice stuff. He's too full of himself already. He's got to mature a bit, but he has all the skills to be an elite defender in the NHL. Skill wise, I see a tough and rugged defender who can rip one passed the netminder. I think he'll be a Shea Weber clone.

Kunin is electrifying! He'll definitely move up into the top 10.
 

Joey Bones

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I think Laine's very good. Top 3-4, at least.

I'm starting to think Puljujarvi might be a bust eventually. His numbers in Liiga aren't that good for such a highly rated prospect and he didn't put up numbers at the WJC's last year.

I don't know if I'd take him top 5, although I think his skill-set puts him top five. Will his production match his skill-set at some point?

It would have been crazy to suggest a year ago that Laine has a higher floor, but now I don't think it is.

Both Fins are really good and IMO, they'll both go top 10. Think Laine has been doing well to be considered top 5. Puljujarvi is fine, granted the offense is faultering a bit. Think if anything, Puljujarvi would fall out of the top 5, but would get swooped up immediately following. It's weird sometimes Fins do better when they are on smaller rinks. Just look at what Puljujarvi did last World Junior! He was everywhere on the ice. He pretty much did everything, but put points on the board. I think his World Junior this year will defend the case for top 5.
 

Edge

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Agreed on Tkachuk on the mold aspect. Think that Ladd is a perfect comparison, however, he's still a bit raw. Was watching some video on him and he seems a bit sluggish at times, but conditioning will help with that. He also needs to shoot more and think that his line mates (Mitch Marner and Christian Dvorak) are padding his stats just a tad. But the talent is there and with another year in junior he'd be fine. .

He needs to improve his skating a bit. I think he's good when he gets going, but he needs to work on his first step and overall agility. He's pretty much a point A to point B player right now.

I agree on the stats padding aspect. London is insanely stacked on offense and everyone's numbers refect that.

Strangely enough, I think Tkachuk is a far better playmaker than he gets credit for. I don't know if he's a natural shoot-first player, and as a result I'm not sure he'll ever quite shoot as much as some people would like to see from a winger.

With that said, I gravitate towards him as my favorite player in this draft because I'm naturally more inclined to notice his style. Not saying he's the best prospect in this draft, merely my personal favorite (along with Kunin).
 

Joey Bones

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He needs to improve his skating a bit. I think he's good when he gets going, but he needs to work on his first step and overall agility. He's pretty much a point A to point B player right now.

I agree on the stats padding aspect. London is insanely stacked on offense and everyone's numbers refect that.

Strangely enough, I think Tkachuk is a far better playmaker than he gets credit for. I don't know if he's a natural shoot-first player, and as a result I'm not sure he'll ever quite shoot as much as some people would like to see from a winger.

With that said, I gravitate towards him as my favorite player in this draft because I'm naturally more inclined to notice his style. Not saying he's the best prospect in this draft, merely my personal favorite (along with Kunin).

Agreed, speed needs to be key if he wants to step it up. He's very good on the PP for London setting up Marner, Dvorak or whoever, just want him to shoot more. He could be an even bigger threat if he did.

You also mentioned Logan Brown before, but IMO I'm meh about him. He's big and speedy, don't get me wrong, but when I watch him skate and put flashy moves on defenders and then become incognito for a bit, doesn't that sound like a specific inconsistent Ranger? I see a lot of Emerson Etem in Brown, but that's also a good thing to have. Just want his inconsistencies worked on.
 
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Edge

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Agreed, speed needs to be key if he wants to step it up. He's very good on the PP for London setting up Marner, Dvorak or whoever, just want him to shoot more. He could be an even bigger threat if he did.

Agreed.

I think some of those short-comings could potentially make Tkachuk much better suited for being a very good support player, rather than an offensive line's main generator.

IMO, he's the guy who plays with the star - he isn't necessarily the star. However, he could be one of those players who is very good at playing next to a star - assuming he gets into the right situation.
 

Joey Bones

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Agreed.

I think some of those short-comings could potentially make Tkachuk much better suited for being a very good support player, rather than an offensive line's main generator.

IMO, he's the guy who plays with the star - he isn't necessarily the star. However, he could be one of those players who is very good at playing next to a star - assuming he gets into the right situation.

Hence Ladd with Little and Wheeler ;)
 
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