Speculation: Offer Sheets - What would you like to see Bergevin do?

[Habs Halifax]

Push it to 9 or 9.5m. A #1 center with size would be huge for us

PLD might sign with the Habs like Aho but Blue Jackets will match. But yeah, he would be awesome to acquire if that was an option

 

[CHfan1]

Push it to 9 or 9.5m. A #1 center with size would be huge for us

Going past $8.5 million means giving up 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. If they are going to do that why not go after the better player in Barzal, especially since the Isles are more in cap trouble.

 

[Ozmodiar]

Pretty sure Lou matches at 10M AAV.

maybe. Of course, you could say this about any offer sheet.

the thing is, MB has to make a decision on what to swing at.

 

[Omar]

Going past $8.5 million means giving up 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. If they are going to do that why not go after the better player in Barzal, especially since the Isles are more in cap trouble.

Size

 

[Le Tricolore]

I like Dubois as much as the next guy, but he's absolutely not worth the risk at $9-10M. He's a very good player, but it isn't like he's even close to being a PPG guy after three seasons. If we could get him for 6-7M, that'd be awesome, but there's zero chance Columbus wouldn't match that.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

maybe. Of course, you could say this about any offer sheet.

the thing is, MB has to make a decision on what to swing at.

I thought he used a dartboard.

*eyes closed* "eeny miney.."

 

[26Mats]

maybe. Of course, you could say this about any offer sheet.

the thing is, MB has to make a decision on what to swing at.

I think above 12.5M AAV makes Lou think twice. But is it worth losing five 1sts? I can see the argument both ways and would have to think hard about it. I lean towards no because of where we are in the standings. Could Barzal get us out of the lottery right away?

 

[CHfan1]

I think above 12.5M AAV makes Lou think twice. But is it worth losing five 1sts? I can see the argument both ways and would have to think hard about it. I lean towards no because of where we are in the standings. Could Barzal get us out of the lottery right away?

Pay McDavid money and lose 4 1sts in the flat cap era? No thanks.

 

[26Mats]

Pay McDavid money and lose 4 1sts in the flat cap era? No thanks.

It's a no... but McDavid's contract will be a bargain in a few years, just like Crosby's been a bargain for several years now.

Can't judge other contracts based on these extreme bargains. To do so is to be as dumb as Bergevin when he said publicly: "Radulov is not an 8 million dollar player. Crosby makes 8 million. Radulov's not that good."

 

[smirob]

I think IF we luck out on Lafreniere, you have to go for one of Barzal/PLD and try to put this team over the top...

Overpaying for either (cap-wise) is not a concern for me, considering we've had unused cap over the last two seasons.
The draft picks are not a concern either, we can trade some of this/next years picks and recoup the ones we are losing imo.

Looking at both boards, NYI fans are expecting a deal around 10M for Barzal (which is probably close to fair value imo). CLB fans seem to be around 6.5-7 or in favour of a bridge deal.

I would be fine offering 8.4 (1st,2nd,3rd) for PLD. I think it's an overpay but worth the risk.
Barzal would probably mean we give up the four 1sts, so I don't think it's the right move.

 

[LaP]

Sure, but for PLD, I’d stick to the 8.4 limit to keep it to one 1st.
I’d like to see a 1+ PPG season on the resume before going as high as 10.

Columbus match.

 

[Runner77]

So now we're reviving threads from last July that include polls that have no closing date?

Let me see what else I can dig up from a year ago.

 

[Runner77]

Columbus match.

Like this?

 

[bobholly39]

I like Dubois as much as the next guy, but he's absolutely not worth the risk at $9-10M. He's a very good player, but it isn't like he's even close to being a PPG guy after three seasons. If we could get him for 6-7M, that'd be awesome, but there's zero chance Columbus wouldn't match that.

I look it more as the cost of 2 first round picks. I absolutely dont trade 4 1st round picks for either Barzal nor PLD - simply not those caliber of players
But 2? Thats a lot more affordable for such a high potential player. What are the odds either of our two picks end up as good as PLD or Barzal?

The $$ amount worries me less than others. At the end of the day we're talking about paying maybe ~2M$ more or less. Considering we've had close to 10M$ in cap space available for past few years, id rather we be aggressive than not.

Id agree with Barzal > PLD though. I just think anything below 4 1st round picks and Isles match on Barzal. PLD might be less likely

Also - RFAs last year were amazing. Next year? Amazing too (Makar, Dahlin, Hughes, EP, etc). This year? Not so much.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Going past $8.5 million means giving up 2 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd. If they are going to do that why not go after the better player in Barzal, especially since the Isles are more in cap trouble.

By the time free agency comes, A team like the Islanders might not be in cap trouble anymore cause they make moves on draft day.

Offer sheet is a dream. Probably a bigger dream than our 12.5% chance at Lafreniere.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think IF we luck out on Lafreniere, you have to go for one of Barzal/PLD and try to put this team over the top...

Overpaying for either (cap-wise) is not a concern for me, considering we've had unused cap over the last two seasons.
The draft picks are not a concern either, we can trade some of this/next years picks and recoup the ones we are losing imo.

Looking at both boards, NYI fans are expecting a deal around 10M for Barzal (which is probably close to fair value imo). CLB fans seem to be around 6.5-7 or in favour of a bridge deal.

I would be fine offering 8.4 (1st,2nd,3rd) for PLD. I think it's an overpay but worth the risk.
Barzal would probably mean we give up the four 1sts, so I don't think it's the right move.

Don't bother. I showed an example of if we get Lafreneire, we flip Domi for Brodin and trade for Kopitar with retention using Kotkaniemi. Some said it was mediocre still. . Barzal and PLD younger than Kopitar but some acting like Kopitar has declined like Gomez already when he is the better center to shelter Lafreniere.

This is not a cup contender to some people...

Lafreniere / Barzal or PLD or Kopitar / Drouin
Tatar / Danault / Gallagher
Kovalchuk / Suzuki / Armia
Byron / Evans / Lehkonen
Poehling

Chiarot / Weber
Brodin / Petry
Romanov / Juulsen
Mete, Kulak

Price
Primeau

 

[Habs Halifax]

It's a no... but McDavid's contract will be a bargain in a few years, just like Crosby's been a bargain for several years now.

Can't judge other contracts based on these extreme bargains. To do so is to be as dumb as Bergevin when he said publicly: "Radulov is not an 8 million dollar player. Crosby makes 8 million. Radulov's not that good."

Not so sure McDavid's $12.5M cap his is a bargain like Croby's $8.7M cap hit which is cap circumventing type. 5 years apart from when they were signed.

McDavid's contract likely only becomes a bargain once the cap rises above $90M in about 3+ years. McDavid's contract might be a bargain in the last 3 years of the 8 year deal. Crosby's contract was bargain for pretty much his entire contract.

 

[WeThreeKings]

He shouldn't do any.. this team isn't good enough and the 2022 draft might have the best top end of any draft we've seen.

Unless you could get someone for a 1,2,3 comp. but any team with a good player is going to match such an offersheet.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I like Dubois as much as the next guy, but he's absolutely not worth the risk at $9-10M. He's a very good player, but it isn't like he's even close to being a PPG guy after three seasons. If we could get him for 6-7M, that'd be awesome, but there's zero chance Columbus wouldn't match that.

PLD at $9 - $10M range for 5 years would be a big gamble but that's the only way to make them think about not matching. They might still match though cause they have the space and would not be a good message to their fan base

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

He shouldn't do any.. this team isn't good enough and the 2022 draft might have the best top end of any draft we've seen.

Unless you could get someone for a 1,2,3 comp. but any team with a good player is going to match such an offersheet.

All we can hope for is the team keeps failing and Price wants out., otherwise, it's gonna be business as usual.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Where is the no offer sheet option as a vote?

 

[Habs Halifax]

All we can hope for is the team keeps failing and Price wants out., otherwise, it's gonna be business as usual.

That might happen in the Weber window 1-3 years left. But if the Habs keep struggling and Weber retires at 37, Price will want out and he will be 35 at that point.

 

[Benstheman]

That might happen in the Weber window 1-3 years left. But if the Habs keep struggling and Weber retires at 37, Price will want out and he will be 35 at that point.

And at that point, we will have to retain 50% on Price's salary to even get a return. No matter how we see it, even if he wants out, his contract will still bite us in the ass. Maybe the only possibility is Seattle expansion draft. But i'm 100% sure management are not ready to let him go yet. So imo, it doesn't really make sense to, at least, not try something to win now while Weber and Price are still good. While i don't think they are elite, they still pretty good and important pieces to our team . I say make a big move to stabilize the D and Price will gain 2-3 more years of effectiveness.

 

[Habs Halifax]

And at that point, we will have to retain 50% on Price's salary to even get a return. No matter how we see it, even if he wants out, his contract will still bite us in the ass. Maybe the only possibility is Seattle expansion draft. But i'm 100% sure management are not ready to let him go yet. So imo, it doesn't really make sense to, at least, not try something to win now while Weber and Price are still good. While i don't think they are elite, they still pretty good and important pieces to our team . I say make a big move to stabilize the D and Price will gain 2-3 more years of effectiveness.

Retaining on Price at 50% is a massive mistake. Rather keep him and why we unloading Price when no UFA will sign with us? What's the point of creating the cap space? It's not like we have several starts to sign.

I agree, they will stay and we will try to move up the standings in the Weber window of 3 years (35-37). After that, maybe it's much easier to move Price when he has less term left and the cap grows substantially.

 

[Grate n Colorful Oz]

And at that point, we will have to retain 50% on Price's salary to even get a return. No matter how we see it, even if he wants out, his contract will still bite us in the ass. Maybe the only possibility is Seattle expansion draft. But i'm 100% sure management are not ready to let him go yet. So imo, it doesn't really make sense to, at least, not try something to win now while Weber and Price are still good. While i don't think they are elite, they still pretty good and important pieces to our team . I say make a big move to stabilize the D and Price will gain 2-3 more years of effectiveness.

Your paradigm is based on an incomplete analysis, which renders it null. Almost seems like you're trying to build an excuse to keep this ridiculous set-up we have.

Anyway, here are the reasons;

1- As of this moment, there is only 45.25 mil left to pay to price over 6 years, which makes it around 7.5 mil per year left to pay (rounded out), which makes a 50% salary retention completely ridiculous, even more ridiculous as time goes on. Next year at the same date, 33 mil left to pay over 5 years, 6.5 mil per rounded out.

2- having a much lower actual salary than cap hit, Price could be very attractive to teams on a budget, but who also want to make a push.

3- your entire argument rests upon the fallacy that all teams look for a lower cap hit vs looking for lower actual salary, when it's no more than half the league, if not fewer.