Speculation: Offer sheet to Puljujärvi

[These Are The Days]

He's a healthy scratch in Russia too?

As far as I can tell he is. And why not? It worked like magic for rookie Steven Stamkos because Barry Melrose was a moron and completely destroyed Stamkos' confidence by the time he was fired. It seems to be working for Yakupov because he went from Kruger to Eakins to Nelson to Hitchcock to Bednar all in a span of 6 years all having different expectations and wanting different things.

Sit a guy down, slow it down and take the pressure off and let him know it's okay and you'd be surprised what can happen

 

[Ola]

It's actually not a terrible idea if you keep it below the second round pick compensation level. For example, a team like the Devils probably won't be spending to the cap even if they tried in that there are only two sizable contracts they're going to have in the near future, Hall and Nico. They could offer sheet Pulijarvi at something like 4 years $12 million. An overpayment for sure, but still less than the average NHL cap salary which they can easily make disappear without affecting anything else they want to do.

Obviously it depends on whether you see real upside in him still. I don't watch Oilers games regularly, so I can't tell you anything about him beyond his stat sheet.

Yeah, like, I could be wrong, sure, but I am a ranger fan. All I can say is that I would not be glad at all if NJD got Puljujärvi for a 2nd round pick. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if Puljujärvi turned it around in EDM getting more support, less pressure, getting a bigger role on the PP etc.

And what is the down side? A wasted 2nd round pick and 4m lost for one year, if he totally stink it up he can be bought out for 650k per for 2 years. Sure a 2nd round pick isn't nothing, but Pulju is just 20 y/o and at the age of 17 scored 17 pts in 7 games in the WJC, won a U18 WJC gold alone for Finland and so forth.

 

[Habs Halifax]

1 year at $4M = 2nd round pick. Pretty sure this pisses the Oilers off big time.

 

[Fogelhund]

It's an interesting thought and proposition. I suppose it really depends on your view of what he will turn into, and the confidence you have that he will become a decent player one day.

But, at $2.5 mil for example, how could Edmonton match?

 

[ref19]

Double post.

 

[Ola]

As far as I can tell he is. And why not? It worked like magic for rookie Steven Stamkos because Barry Melrose was a moron and completely destroyed Stamkos' confidence by the time he was fired. It seems to be working for Yakupov because he went from Kruger to Eakins to Nelson to Hitchcock to Bednar all in a span of 6 years all having different expectations and wanting different things.

Sit a guy down, slow it down and take the pressure off and let him know it's okay and you'd be surprised what can happen

Unfortunately you can never prove these things since we don't have an alternative universe at hand -- but having followed this league closely for a good 25 years -- my guess is that its severely underrated just how much a team can mess with the development of many players.

How would Pat Laine have done in EDM? Would he be fit with a super fast McDavid who thrives when darting back and forth between the redline and the offensive zone and with a team mate who can get him the puck at full speed? I wouldn't rule it out, but if not, I think Laine would have struggled a lot on the 2nd line in EDM. Laine can be pretty slow and look pretty heavy at times.

How would Puljujärvi have looked in Winnipeg? They have more patience with their kids. If they would have kept him in Finland another year, let him finnish growing before rushing him to the NHL, and then played him in the NHL with a really strong support, I wouldn't at all be surprised if Pulju was doing pretty OK right now...

 

[Frank Drebin]

As far as I can tell he is. And why not? It worked like magic for rookie Steven Stamkos because Barry Melrose was a moron and completely destroyed Stamkos' confidence by the time he was fired. It seems to be working for Yakupov because he went from Kruger to Eakins to Nelson to Hitchcock to Bednar all in a span of 6 years all having different expectations and wanting different things.

Sit a guy down, slow it down and take the pressure off and let him know it's okay and you'd be surprised what can happen

You're comparing an 18 year old Stamkos being benched by one coach and exploding for 51 goals in the next season, to Yakupov? And now Nail can't understand what Russian coaches want? When is the poor kid going to stop getting idiot coaches?

 

[ref19]

1 year at $4M = 2nd round pick. Pretty sure this pisses the Oilers off big time.

Any gm signing Pul to a 4m deal is being fired the next day.

 

[ref19]

37 points in 137 games. He’s lucky to still be in the league. Usually you 100 games. If he wasn’t a top 5 pick he certainly wouldn’t be in the nhl

 

[TFHockey]

1 year at $4M = 2nd round pick. Pretty sure this pisses the Oilers off big time.

A 1 year deal at $4 Million? Oilers might match, depending on what else they're thinking of adding. They have a ton of money coming off the books next year. Rieder, Talbot, Petrovic, with a few others probably getting dealt like Kassian and Brodziak. Maybe Spooner. Doubt the Oilers let him walk for a 2nd.

More term than that? Compensation goes up. Maybe that gives Edmonton pause.

 

[StreetHawk]

It's an interesting thought and proposition. I suppose it really depends on your view of what he will turn into, and the confidence you have that he will become a decent player one day.

But, at $2.5 mil for example, how could Edmonton match?

You have to offer an amount that you would be confident Edmonton would not match. Otherwise all you have done is increase the price for rfa with no benefit to your team.

It’s a roll of the dice. Change of scenery might be what he needs.

Edmonton can’t just give up on him but easier to walk away due to an offer sheet. Can’t commit that cap hit for an underperforming player. Too many of those on the roster.

 

[TFHockey]

You have to offer an amount that you would be confident Edmonton would not match. Otherwise all you have done is increase the price for rfa with no benefit to your team.

It’s a roll of the dice. Change of scenery might be what he needs.

Edmonton can’t just give up on him but easier to walk away due to an offer sheet. Can’t commit that cap hit for an underperforming player. Too many of those on the roster.

Also, offer sheets just don't happen. You know as a GM that other teams feel there's a green light to go after your guys.

 

[Ola]

37 points in 137 games. He’s lucky to still be in the league. Usually you 100 games. If he wasn’t a top 5 pick he certainly wouldn’t be in the nhl

He is just 20 y/o. There are so many really good NHLers today in the league who weren't close to being NHL ready when they were 20 y/o. Kevin Hayes is another big kid who is doing great for the New York Rangers. Can you envision how Kevin Hayes would have looked in the NHL when he was 20 y/o? Kevin Hayes joined NYR when he was 22 y/o, he had to push himself a lot to catch up the first couple of years.

What I am missing? Why aren't that a relevant comparison?

 

[Ola]

A 1 year deal at $4 Million? Oilers might match, depending on what else they're thinking of adding. They have a ton of money coming off the books next year. Rieder, Talbot, Petrovic, with a few others probably getting dealt like Kassian and Brodziak. Maybe Spooner. Doubt the Oilers let him walk for a 2nd.

More term than that? Compensation goes up. Maybe that gives Edmonton pause.

In light of EDM's needs on their NHL roster, is it really fair to label it as them having 'a ton of money coming off the books' this summer?

And who is taking those contracts you speculate on getting moved? Don't take this the wrong way, but to me that does sound like a bit of wishful thinking...

 

[Habs Halifax]

Any gm signing Pul to a 4m deal is being fired the next day.

One year deal. If you have the cap space, why not try it? If it don't work, it's no long term commitment.

What has the better probability of turning into a NHL asset? Pulujuarvi or a 2nd?

 

[Habs Halifax]

A 1 year deal at $4 Million? Oilers might match, depending on what else they're thinking of adding. They have a ton of money coming off the books next year. Rieder, Talbot, Petrovic, with a few others probably getting dealt like Kassian and Brodziak. Maybe Spooner. Doubt the Oilers let him walk for a 2nd.

More term than that? Compensation goes up. Maybe that gives Edmonton pause.

I think it comes down to Puljujarvi vs a 2nd. At least with Puljujarvi, you know what you have. The probability of getting more value than Puljujarvi with a 2nd is not great.

The 1 year term fits. If he disappoints with a new team, let him walk. If he does well, you now have to pay him $4M or more moving forward right? If you are willing to pay him $4M or more, that means he produces on his new team. Good problem to have.

No idea if the Oilers match or not. I guess it depends on if it's a early 2nd or mid to late 2nd.

 

[These Are The Days]

You're comparing an 18 year old Stamkos being benched by one coach and exploding for 51 goals in the next season, to Yakupov? And now Nail can't understand what Russian coaches want? When is the poor kid going to stop getting idiot coaches?

Stamkos was healthy scratched because he was playing like a dog that got it's its ass whipped for doing nnothing. Rick Tocchet put him in the press box to watch the games and let things sink in. It WAS NOT a punishment. It was to let him know everything was going to be done differently. Stamkos ended his rookie year on a high note and it translated into the next season.

So Yak leads his team in goals and 12th in the league with 10+ less games because he doesn't understand what coaches want? Or is it because he's getting a fresh start and he's stariting to feel like his old self again?

Edit: it boils down to confidence and consistency in the message you are getting

 

[Empoleon8771]

I get what you guys mean, albeit the "he isn't worth 4m for 2 years" talk is pretty irrelevant for teams with cap space and nobody to spend it on.

Okay, but what about the future, then? When they'll keep having to qualify Puljujarvi at $4 million to retain his rights or let him walk as a UFA? Are they just going to have "nobody to spend it on" forever and just keep qualifying Puljujarvi? You're either going to continuously overpay Puljujarvi or he's going to walk as a UFA.

The risk/reward of giving Puljujarvi that kind of contract just isn't high enough. You run the risk of losing a 2nd rounder for a bust and having to overpay him every year just to retain him. What's the upside there? That he might be worth that one day?

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Why would anyone offersheet him to that? He's quickly on the way to bustville, and you're not going to qualify him at $4+ million if he sucks. You'd be better off trading a reclamation project prospect for him instead of overpaying him on an offersheet.

I think the idea is that the Oilers development system is sub par and he could potentially thrive with a change of scenery and new development system. OP also acknowledged it’s a risk that costs a second and if he doesn’t turn out, $1.3m on cap for a couple years, so it might be worth the risk.

Hope that helps.

 

[TFHockey]

In light of EDM's needs on their NHL roster, is it really fair to label it as them having 'a ton of money coming off the books' this summer?

And who is taking those contracts you speculate on getting moved? Don't take this the wrong way, but to me that does sound like a bit of wishful thinking...

Well they have a lot of players who are coming off as UFA and RFAs who won't be extended.

Talbot is gone. $4.6 Million.
Petrovic is gone. $1.95 Million.
Rieder is gone. $2.0 Million.

Kassian is likely traded to a playoff team at the TDL. $1.95 Million moved.
Brodziak is likely traded as a depth center in the off season. $1.15 Million moved.

Both the above players are short term, having only next year left on their contracts.

I am not talking Lucic here. There are no long term commitments being traded.

 

[Habs Halifax]

He is just 20 y/o. There are so many really good NHLers today in the league who weren't close to being NHL ready when they were 20 y/o. Kevin Hayes is another big kid who is doing great for the New York Rangers. Can you envision how Kevin Hayes would have looked in the NHL when he was 20 y/o? Kevin Hayes joined NYR when he was 22 y/o, he had to push himself a lot to catch up the first couple of years.

What I am missing? Why aren't that a relevant comparison?

The issue is AHL stats are nothing to brag about either. I think there are some who still believe in him but is a cautious optimism. I understand your age 20 narrative but when a player is not trending well, he's not trending well. The skill is there but he has a hard time creating time and space cause he lacks foot speed. This is his issue IMO.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the idea is that the Oilers development system is sub par and he could potentially thrive with a change of scenery and new development system. OP also acknowledged it’s a risk that costs a second and if he doesn’t turn out, $1.3m on cap for a couple years, so it might be worth the risk.

Hope that helps.

The problem here is the $4 million part, not offersheeting Puljujarvi part. If he either busts or only progresses slowly, you're either going to have to let him walk as a UFA and try to re-sign him or continuously qualify him at $4 million. That's the issue here.

If you want him, trade a reclamation project type of prospect for him and re-sign him for like $1 million a year. You're not trapped with the options of overpaying him or letting him walk as a free agent if you do that.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think the idea is that the Oilers development system is sub par and he could potentially thrive with a change of scenery and new development system. OP also acknowledged it’s a risk that costs a second and if he doesn’t turn out, $1.3m on cap for a couple years, so it might be worth the risk.

Hope that helps.

I was thinking the same. Not trying to troll the Oilers but the development has not been good and they rushed Pulujuarvi IMO. That's the issue with NHL prospects with NHL size bodies right after they are drafted. Sometimes you fall into a trap that they can handle it and they don't.

There is still time but time is running out.

 

[Ola]

1 year at $4M = 2nd round pick. Pretty sure this pisses the Oilers off big time.

Yup, and what is the downside with making it 2 years and 4m per? Like none right. If you regret it -- sure you pissed away a 2nd round pick taking a flier on a 20 y/o kid but you can basically buy the 2nd year out for free, 650k per year for 2 years or whatever.

Someone said that the GM signing him to an offer sheet would be fired the next day. But I doubt a GM getting him on an offer sheet would face much criticism if he didn't work out. You give up a low % pick and gambled high, even if it was a bad bet, the GM can always go 'hey we wanted to aim high, sometimes it don't work out' and people will cut him some slack for it. Trading a kid is much more risky, if that kids becomes a good player it can haunt a GM for ever. That is never the case with a 2nd round pick...

If anything, I think its a high reward/low risk move for a GM. If it works out, this GM would be labelled as the GM who finally worked out how a RFA offer should be moved. Imagine if Pulju just becomes a PP specialist/RHS shooter down low, can move the puck around well. You manage to find a center that can carry him well on a 2nd line and give him top PP time. 60 pts isn't a stretch at all for a kid that can do OK in that role, its a huge steal instead.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The problem here is the $4 million part, not offersheeting Puljujarvi part. If he either busts or only progresses slowly, you're either going to have to let him walk as a UFA and try to re-sign him or continuously qualify him at $4 million. That's the issue here.

If he doesn’t boom then you buy him out, so it’s $1.3m for 2yrs after the first if it does turn out to be the player. Teams that would be willing to do this, as the OP mentioned being teams who are scraping for young players to develop, would be teams that are rebuilding and have cap space to burn on stocking the cupboards. There are much worse things you can do with $4m, $1.3m, $1.3m cap hits while rebuilding.