Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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Off-Season Thread: Free Agency & Trade Talk
- Thread starter Frk It
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Wait til you turn 29. All your birthday wishes come with some form of "last year! make it count!"
So far, I've spent a bunch of time on this site, not making it count. 
GoAwayDanCleary
DRWCC
- Aug 6, 2012
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I'm gonna call ******** on that tweet to be honest. Why would Riger of all people know what's going on behind the scenes? And Terry Foster? No way man
SoupNazi
Serenity now. Insanity later.
- Feb 6, 2010
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Wait til you turn 29. All your birthday wishes come with some form of "last year! make it count!"
I'm 28, turning 29 in a few months.
Thanks for the warning.
I'm 28, turning 29 in a few months.
Thanks for the warning.
Happy early Birthday! Only got one year til 30 so MAKE IT COUNT!
Maybe, but how often do they tweet about trade rumors? And they both work together, so it would make sense that have the same source or there's something they're involved in that exposed them to the rumors. Could just be doing some Tigers-related stuff and overhearing Tigers ownership talking about what Kenny's got going on.
Really hard to put stock in rumors like this, though. They could've easily heard something legit, but that doesn't mean its the ultimate transaction.
So, here's the problem: I'm not sure people advocating a tank understand how bad the team would have to be to get a pick like that.
For example, Vancouver gets the 5 this year. Their top 4 dmen in terms of IT were Edler, Chris Tanev, Hamhuis, and Ben Hutton.
Tanev is essentially Lashoff.
Hutton is essentially Sproul.
Edler and Hamhuis are more well known, I'd compare them to a poor man's Kronwall and with Quincey, respectively.
So, to sync up the blue lines Detroit would have to get rid of Dekeyser and Green and hope Kronwall plays poorly again. That's not a good start.
Their top 9 IT forwards were the Sedins, Bo Horvat, Janik Hanssen, Alex Burrows, Radim bleeping Vrbata, and an assortment of AHL trash that's honestly pointless to even list. Bunch of random guys playing 20-40 games for 13-14 minutes a night.
To sync up their forwards to that Detroit would have to dump at least Tatar, and probably Nyquist too.
And trade Mrazek.
And this is just to get to where the team could pick #5, by the way. With absolutely no guarantee they'd be able to get back off the mat in anything approaching an acceptible timetable. See also Toronto, Edmonton, Calgary, NJ, Columbus, Buffalo, Arizona, Winnipeg, Carolina, etc.
Frk It
Mo Seider Less Problems
- Jul 27, 2010
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The Zermanator
In Yzerman We Trust
- Jan 21, 2013
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Yeah if Tanev is Lashoff then DeKeyser is Lebda. Don't know how people come up with this stuff.
WingedWheel1987
Registered User
Yeah if Tanev is Lashoff then DeKeyser is Lebda. Don't know how people come up with this stuff.
It's insane. He was averaging 21:45 ice time per game, and was only -8 on a team that was ranked 29th in goals per game and 23rd in goals allowed.
Surely elite talent acquired by trade or FA is just as valuable as home-grown elite talent, no?
And surely there is no logic to wanting to turn down the opportunity to recruit elite talent at the loss of no major assets because its not worth doing so unless we have a core of elite talent...surely acquiring elite talent now makes it easier to achieve that than hoping the draft will result in elite talent in the next few years, when most seasons there is at least 1/2 the top ten picks that don't ever reach that level.
SpookyTsuki
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- Dec 3, 2014
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If the rest of our roster at that point is so strong that there aren't one or two other guys we aren't prepared to move to acquire Karlsson, then no-one will be too worried about a former 50 goal scorer only being a 25-30 goal scorer....
Frankly none of us know where this franchise will be in 5 years time...perhaps a star signing might invigorate things and we'll be competitive sooner than we think. Perhaps none of the prospects we are hoping for at the moment pan out. Perhaps Stamkos (whoever he signs for) might by a 45 point 2nd liner. Perhaps he'll re-discover his best form and be a 90+ point man, due to finding great chemistry with his line-mates.
obey86
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2009
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This.
Right now the Wings are getting higher draft picks than they have had in 20+ years... the 15th, 16th, and 19th picks from the last 3 drafts are literally the 3 highest draft picks the Wings have had since 1991. They are getting chances at talent they haven't had a chance at for a LONG TIME.
It's not crazy to think they could get lucky and get a Tarasenko or a Giroux caliber player or something. Or another Larkin type. Crazier things have certainly happened. It's certainly not a guarantee, but neither is tanking for multiple years on end.
People are way too down on the future.
Heaton
Moderator
None of that really matters unless the picks pan out. I'm more pessimistic about the future than you seem to be. But I think you're just doing a lot of wishful thinking. We could get a Giroux or a Tarasenko, but it's not likely.
The long rebuilds generally happen because the management has to change in the middle of it, because they don't know what they're doing. Until the Wings drafting in these 'early' rounds actually shows something that turns into something elite, I'm not going to hold my breath. I need substance, not 'well it could happen!' type of stuff. Holland has made too many poor decisions in the last 6+ years for me to give him the benefit of the doubt when he's never built a team without it already having elite, generational talent on it.
I really hope I'm wrong and I really hope you're right. But this Wings team is in a position it hasn't been since the early 80's and like you said, no one has any idea where it'll be in 5 years, but it doesn't look promising.
jkutswings
hot piss hockey
- Jul 10, 2014
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There's so many topics to argue with here, I'll just have to agree to disagree with several posters. While Stamkos COULD be the start of a new leaf, I'm very very skeptical that Holland could do enough cap maneuvering to land enough other pieces in the next 3-5 years to make it worthwhile.
I hope they can't trade the Datsyuk cap hit, stink enough for a few top 5 picks, and do a slow rebuild around Larkin and Mrazek. But knowing this front office, they'll probably do whatever desperate moves they can think of to prevent that at all costs. We'll see.
I hope they can't trade the Datsyuk cap hit, stink enough for a few top 5 picks, and do a slow rebuild around Larkin and Mrazek. But knowing this front office, they'll probably do whatever desperate moves they can think of to prevent that at all costs. We'll see.
obey86
Registered User
- Jun 9, 2009
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Yes, and that fact holds true for any draft picks.....top 5 or top 15.
Well, it's too early to tell either way. Larkin looks like a huge hit for the 15th pick thus far. Svechnikov obviously remains to be seen. and we haven't even drafted someone with the 16th picf yet.
GoAwayDanCleary
DRWCC
- Aug 6, 2012
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Its hard for me to say the future looks bleak with Larkin and Mrazek on this roster. Along with the other kids on the team and in the system, there is definitely a roster to build around up front... not so much on the back end.
We have two potential franchise-level players, so I'm excited to at least see how they pan out. It's on Kenny to build a roster around them, and that's where I have concerns.
We have two potential franchise-level players, so I'm excited to at least see how they pan out. It's on Kenny to build a roster around them, and that's where I have concerns.
KJoe88
Forever Lost.
Draft Day should be interesting this year, eh boys?
The younger players thing is kind of strange...
The younger players thing is kind of strange...
Another thought re the burn it down re-build philosophy (apart from the annual race to the bottom), is the fairly obvious one that unless you are picking in the top 4 or 5 every year for 3,4 or 5 years, or you get super lucky with a Crosby, Mcdavid year, there are more teams failing with this strategy than succeeding.
Given that apart from Yzerman, maybe Primeau and potentially Larkin in the future, Detroit's attempts at drafting in the first half of the first round has actually been no more productive than rounds 4, 5, 6 & 7 (and beyond) consistently for the last 40 years, the assumption of guarantees is a false one.
Yes, OF COURSE you have a higher chance of getting absolute top quality at the top of the first round, but apart from franchise forwards, you statistically proven to be just as likely to get bonafide first line players in the 2nd half of round 1 and round 2, even ignoring those that slip down significantly.
Sure, one can't rely on picking up a cornerstone Duncan Keith, Erik Karlsson (straight outta #15 purgatory), Shea Weber, Corey Perry, Getzlaf, Giroux, Bergeron, Subban, Carlson, Parise, Tarasenko, Pacioretty, Josi, Faulk or even a major complementary piece like Oshie, O'Reilly, Vlasic, Niskanen, Eriksson, Krejci, Hamonic, Kessler or Backes or countless others but they are out there every year.
And that's ignoring Jamie Benn, Edler, Letang, Pavelski, Klingberg, Brodie, Giordano, Stralman, Johnson, Gaudreau etc etc etc and almost all the top NHL goalies that have been picked up much later in the last decade.
One can't rely on lucky drafting, this we know. But its still relatively recently that the wings have tried to hang on to high picks rather than flipping them at the deadline, and these have resulted in players who's future window people are talking about not wanting to ruin.
If we were bad enough to have a chance at getting a high % lottery pick for 2/3/4 years in a row, then we should of course go down that route. But even with Dats gone, Z & Kronner on their last legs and Ericsson's dodgy hip, we probably aren't that bad unless we trade away a significant number of those likely to be the older members of a future home-grown core.
So refusing to go after Stamkos or similar to facilitate a tank is crazy - we're not bad enough to do so right now, and we might never pick a player as good as Stamkos even if we do.
Of those old enough to merit some assessment, a top 5 pick could as easily land you Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart, RNH, Gudbranson, Niederreiter, Evander Kane, Luke Schenn, or Thomas Hickey as it could a franchise player.
6-10 could be Brett Connolly, Burmistrov, Mcilrath, Cowan, Glennie, Paajarvi, Filatov, Zach Hammil or Ellerby...hardly a guarantee.
And that's just using a choice of 5 draft years. The further you go back, the worse it gets.
Jam today is invariably more reliable than Jam tomorrow.
If we strike out in FA, ok lets go with the kids and take it as it comes, playoffs be damned - they might surprise us and make the playoffs anyway. But if we have the chance to pick up a franchise player or one or two other possible genuine first line players, it would be foolish not to.
Given that apart from Yzerman, maybe Primeau and potentially Larkin in the future, Detroit's attempts at drafting in the first half of the first round has actually been no more productive than rounds 4, 5, 6 & 7 (and beyond) consistently for the last 40 years, the assumption of guarantees is a false one.
Yes, OF COURSE you have a higher chance of getting absolute top quality at the top of the first round, but apart from franchise forwards, you statistically proven to be just as likely to get bonafide first line players in the 2nd half of round 1 and round 2, even ignoring those that slip down significantly.
Sure, one can't rely on picking up a cornerstone Duncan Keith, Erik Karlsson (straight outta #15 purgatory), Shea Weber, Corey Perry, Getzlaf, Giroux, Bergeron, Subban, Carlson, Parise, Tarasenko, Pacioretty, Josi, Faulk or even a major complementary piece like Oshie, O'Reilly, Vlasic, Niskanen, Eriksson, Krejci, Hamonic, Kessler or Backes or countless others but they are out there every year.
And that's ignoring Jamie Benn, Edler, Letang, Pavelski, Klingberg, Brodie, Giordano, Stralman, Johnson, Gaudreau etc etc etc and almost all the top NHL goalies that have been picked up much later in the last decade.
One can't rely on lucky drafting, this we know. But its still relatively recently that the wings have tried to hang on to high picks rather than flipping them at the deadline, and these have resulted in players who's future window people are talking about not wanting to ruin.
If we were bad enough to have a chance at getting a high % lottery pick for 2/3/4 years in a row, then we should of course go down that route. But even with Dats gone, Z & Kronner on their last legs and Ericsson's dodgy hip, we probably aren't that bad unless we trade away a significant number of those likely to be the older members of a future home-grown core.
So refusing to go after Stamkos or similar to facilitate a tank is crazy - we're not bad enough to do so right now, and we might never pick a player as good as Stamkos even if we do.
Of those old enough to merit some assessment, a top 5 pick could as easily land you Yakupov, Ryan Murray, Griffin Reinhart, RNH, Gudbranson, Niederreiter, Evander Kane, Luke Schenn, or Thomas Hickey as it could a franchise player.
6-10 could be Brett Connolly, Burmistrov, Mcilrath, Cowan, Glennie, Paajarvi, Filatov, Zach Hammil or Ellerby...hardly a guarantee.
And that's just using a choice of 5 draft years. The further you go back, the worse it gets.
Jam today is invariably more reliable than Jam tomorrow.
If we strike out in FA, ok lets go with the kids and take it as it comes, playoffs be damned - they might surprise us and make the playoffs anyway. But if we have the chance to pick up a franchise player or one or two other possible genuine first line players, it would be foolish not to.
Spitfire11
Registered User
Is there any team in the league that doesn't have better than that? The Canucks for sure. Maybe the Wild and Bruins as well. Other than them, every other team looks to have either a better future core to build around or are current contenders. They need to start making moves to build around those two because I highly doubt drafting alone is going to do it.
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