Speculation: Off-Season Roster Build, Part Ad Nauseum
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cherry picking?
quite comical after your attempt to nullify the last 2 seasons
Please enlighten us with your "uncherry picked" supporting evidence
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
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cherry picking?
quite comical after your attempt to nullify the last 2 seasons
Please enlighten us with your "uncherry picked" supporting evidence
Nullify the last two seasons?
All I said was that they were A) an outlier year in which St Louis broke NHL records after missing the playoffs the year before and B) a down year for the entire franchise characterized by subpar goaltender performance. If context is so clearly antithetical to your argument perhaps you ought to make a better one.
Djp
Registered User
Those were this years draft placements in the 2nd round for BUF, MIN, and LA
Miller+ Ennis for Oshie+Ratte/Jaskin(sp)+2nd/1st.
or
Miller+Ennis for Oshie+prospect+1st
Miller+ Vanek for Oshie+ Ratte/Jaskin(sp)+propsect+1st
"outlier year" is cherry picking
im sure your uncherry picked counter-evidence is almost ready
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,667
- 5,988
"outlier year" is cherry picking
im sure your uncherry picked counter-evidence is almost ready
If I actually thought that you were arguing in good faith I'd make the effort, but it's clear you're more interested in consciously attacking things I'm not saying. The cherrypicking was listing 4 stats from a single year without context and acting as if that justifies the conclusion. It's not that hard to c+p advanced stats sites. Nor is it hard to leave out certain years/stats. That's what cherry picking is, and you know that's what I meant.
If you want to count a record-breaking NHL season as evidence without correction for the fact that it's one of the prime examples of outlier performance in NHL history, be my guest. Have your ****ing cake and eat it but realize that for those who know different you're just making your argument look weaker than it actually is.
dotcommunism
Moderator
- Aug 16, 2007
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Regardless of the accuracy of anything else in this post, Oshie is only 4 years older than Ennis if you've got a time machine involved in there somewhere.
struckbyaparkedcar
Guilty of Being Right
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/
Click on a player name, their with/without stats are above their stat spreadsheet and sorted by year.
Click on a player name, their with/without stats are above their stat spreadsheet and sorted by year.
Was this supposed to deflect from the fact that you said something a have yet to back it up?
I'm not distracted, once your done stroking, post the data...
So far, I've posted data from 1 year, after your attempt to remove the 2 most recent years from the conversation
As usual, you're "all talk"
So, some teams to revisit as potential destinations:
Miller:
St Louis
Colorado
Anaheim (high potential for him to extend there)
Edmonton
Vanek:
Winnipeg
NYI
Minnesota
NJD
St Louis
Colorado
Nashville
Stafford:
Nashville
Edmonton
Miller:
St Louis
Colorado
Anaheim (high potential for him to extend there)
Edmonton
Vanek:
Winnipeg
NYI
Minnesota
NJD
St Louis
Colorado
Nashville
Stafford:
Nashville
Edmonton
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,667
- 5,988
Jame, let's address the two years I'm trying to "remove" first.
I'm not.
I'm adding context. If you think that's injurious to your argument it is on you. If you think context doesn't belong in the conversation you're relying much too heavily on those numbers in a vacuum. Consider the extreme as illustrative. Suppose Backes played the entire 2013 year with vertigo and a broken leg. Obviously this is not the case but nevertheless the numbers would not reflect his performance as walking wounded. Similarly, they don't account for the context of those seasons.
As for numbers, look at Oshie's 08-09 individual metrics. Among the most sheltered on the team with the second-biggest difference between offensive zone start and finish of all forwards. Beyond that, the marked difference in qualcomp between Oshie and Backes for several seasons, the most dramatic difference being in 10-11. Even still, Oshie's 11-12 doesn't grade out that well in regard to OnIceSv (3rd worst) or Rel Corsi (middling). For a great defensive player in a historically strong defensive year, that's puzzling.
Back to 09-10, though, because you think I'm "stroking." Whatever. Does his second-worst OnIceSv do it for you? His middling offensive zone start % along with low-end offensive zone finish?
What does all this mean devoid of context? Nothing. For example, it doesn't take into account that Murray misused Oshie criminally in early 09-10, or that Payne took to saddling Backes with whatever underperforming forward the Blues had that week as a means of testing his mettle for captaincy and averaging out their lackadaisical play (Backes passed with flying colors, of course). Even advanced stats are just stats, albeit more technical ones, and stats are only part of the picture.
tldr adding context may weaken my argument but it's intellectually honest.
I'm not.
I'm adding context. If you think that's injurious to your argument it is on you. If you think context doesn't belong in the conversation you're relying much too heavily on those numbers in a vacuum. Consider the extreme as illustrative. Suppose Backes played the entire 2013 year with vertigo and a broken leg. Obviously this is not the case but nevertheless the numbers would not reflect his performance as walking wounded. Similarly, they don't account for the context of those seasons.
As for numbers, look at Oshie's 08-09 individual metrics. Among the most sheltered on the team with the second-biggest difference between offensive zone start and finish of all forwards. Beyond that, the marked difference in qualcomp between Oshie and Backes for several seasons, the most dramatic difference being in 10-11. Even still, Oshie's 11-12 doesn't grade out that well in regard to OnIceSv (3rd worst) or Rel Corsi (middling). For a great defensive player in a historically strong defensive year, that's puzzling.
Back to 09-10, though, because you think I'm "stroking." Whatever. Does his second-worst OnIceSv do it for you? His middling offensive zone start % along with low-end offensive zone finish?
What does all this mean devoid of context? Nothing. For example, it doesn't take into account that Murray misused Oshie criminally in early 09-10, or that Payne took to saddling Backes with whatever underperforming forward the Blues had that week as a means of testing his mettle for captaincy and averaging out their lackadaisical play (Backes passed with flying colors, of course). Even advanced stats are just stats, albeit more technical ones, and stats are only part of the picture.
tldr adding context may weaken my argument but it's intellectually honest.
Not sure NJ has much of anything we want or that they would be willing to part with like Henrique. They do not even have a 2014 first round pick. I think Colorado is pretty set at forward and has holes on D and possibly in goal. But I could come up with scenarios for all the others.
yes. you are. you are attempting to make an entire team's hockey season an outlier. can we take the co caps years, tag them as outliers, and judge lindy ruff on the rest of his career?
context is always relevant. your choice on what to contextualize clearly isn't.
i feel something incredibly silly coming up...
yup, there it is...
why?
are you going to cherry pick different stats from 5 years ago? aren't you going to contextualize these stats for us? maybe something like IT WAS HIS ROOKIE SEASON????
are you just lobbing hypocrit bombs on purpose?
What does that have to do with the original statement? Seriously, did you forget what the original statement was while taking this nice long stroll around strawman mountain?
I said, Backes has been better when he was WITH Oshie. the difference is qualcom in seasons that they weren't primary linemates has no relevance. you seem to want to have a different conversation.
Backes and Oshie were linemates in 11-12
Backes and Oshie were #1/#2 in ALL QOC stats among forwards
Backes and Oshie had identical Zone Starts
(I wonder why you want to "outlier" this year
Backes w/ Oshie
GF 0.905
GA 0.521
CF 19.26
CA 15.56
Backes w/o Oshie
GF 0.572
GA 0.687
CF 20.61
CA 17.80
THE COMMENT IS ABOUT BACKES WITH OSHIE.... you seem to want this conversation to be about Oshie. It's not. It's about your accusation that my statement was false. It's not... regardless of how many detours, diversions, and cherries you bring.
Oshie was the 2nd best Corsi/puck possession player on the Blues that year... but i can see how cherry picking would lead you to use a save % stat in a conversation about forwards on a team/season where Chris Mason and Ty Conklin were the starting goaltenders... nice work
With their young goalies in the pipeline I dont see any chance of you getting Anaheim to bite on Miller. Especially when it would insult Hiller a mainstay and fan fav.
Also dont see Edmonton giving up on Dubnyk for a year just to go back to him next year when Miller walks as he surely would.
A package of Granlund , Brodin and a 1st for Vanek would be a steal.. Problem is I'm not sure they can take on Vaneks salary..
Hodgson
Granlund
Girgensons
Larsson
And move Grigorenko to the wing
Hodgson
Granlund
Girgensons
Larsson
And move Grigorenko to the wing
neither let alone both will be on the move. Youd have better luck looking at a Dumba, Philips type of package. Also I dont see them dangling their first 2 years in a row.
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,667
- 5,988
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,667
- 5,988
How's this for a tactic: Re-sign Vanek for 8.0 x 4 so he gets his scratch, eat 50% for the life of the contract, and ship a 65 point floor player anywhere in the league for a 4 million cap hit.
struckbyaparkedcar
Guilty of Being Right
Hate it, because it saddles us with 4 million in cap hit when we're trying to ice a contender.
I do find the idea of it hysterical, though.
I do find the idea of it hysterical, though.
enthusiast
cybersabre his prophet
- Oct 20, 2009
- 18,667
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It was tongue-in-cheek, obviously, but also under the assumption that most people aren't as optimistic as I am about the timeframe. If they're going to be relevant in 4 years, why not keep Vanek?
struckbyaparkedcar
Guilty of Being Right
Because this year is a boom/bust year.
Either the kids come in and contribute in major, defined roles, or it's tank city for an actual elite player. Vanek just buoys the team outside the top 5 if they guess wrong.
If they need a Vanek (or a Nash/Ryan) in four years they can just trade for one.
Either the kids come in and contribute in major, defined roles, or it's tank city for an actual elite player. Vanek just buoys the team outside the top 5 if they guess wrong.
If they need a Vanek (or a Nash/Ryan) in four years they can just trade for one.
I am all for resigning Vanek. The problem is I dont think he deserves the C and without it or a really great sales pitch I dont see him staying.
Without vanek this team is TERRIBLE until Armia and Grigorenko are 30 goal scorers which is years away
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