Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?

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The Nemesis

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Apr 11, 2005
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Why though?

Why limit yourself?

If you wanted to know what the return on a house over ten years was why couldn't you look into what the return was from owners who did renovations versus owners who did no maintenance. Do you not think that's significant to know?

Sure some owners might botch their bathroom projects, but I think the majority who go above and beyond get some benefit from their investment into their home (baserunning)

with respect, your analogy doesn't make sense. baserunning has to do with investing in the home, and something about kitchen and bathroom renovations and people that do nothing not adding value. I'm really not sure what direction you're trying to take it. A more apt homebuyer/baseball player analogy would be something like different improvement/value boosting aspects for renovations represent different skills each contributing to the overall value of the home, and you could say that something like garage renos are baserunning/stealing because they're not something everyone looks for, but they can add a lot of value to someone for whom that part of the house is valuable (a person who works on cars a lot) similarly steals aren't something that every team values high in their acquisitions compared to contact, power, defence, etc, but they're highly valuable to someone that wants to add speed. But even then it's still a clumsy analogy. I don't even like making this "you could use the analogy like this:" statement because it's so clunky.

It's not like baserunning ability is ignored in stats, it's just not featured in SLG/OPS because those stats aren't meant for baserunning. What you're saying is akin to saying that strikeouts should be factored into WHIP because a high ability to strike guys out makes the guys that get on base less of a concern since strikeouts don't give them a chance to advance like outs in the field to. But like this stealing/SLG suggestion, it ignores that the stat (WHIP in this case, SLG/OPS in the other) was created specifically for another purpose not tied to the element that's proposed to effect it (strikeouts or steals).

If you want to judge someone's ability to impact the game with steals, look at their baserunning stats and look at their on base stats and use both. There's a point where continuing to streamline stats doesn't serve any useful purpose.

I really do believe Beane has incorporated base running into his framework for WAR. OBP is great but speed along basepaths is an element that kills in baseball.
What? Billy Beane didn't make WAR nor do I imagine he has his own framework for WAR. And I imagine that they have a wide net in terms of the stats they use to analyze players that includes steals and baserunning. I like WAR, but it's a conversation piece first and foremost. If you're going to start pulling out a mass of stats (as would be smart for something as important as actual baseball decision making), WAR becomes less valuable since you're going to be including many of WAR's components and WAR essentially starts doubling up on analysis.

and FWIW, steals have traditionally been a low-priority target for the A's and Beane because it's something that is valued so highly around the rest of baseball. Teams around the league tend to pay a premium for fast players that rack up steals, so it makes no sense for hte A's to spend money there when they can more efficiently use that money to purchase other undervalued skillsets and get more mileage out of their dollar. Maybe eventually speed on the basepaths will become a cheaper option the way defence has to some degree, but it hasn't really happened yet.
 

Exiled

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I really do believe Beane has incorporated base running into his framework for WAR. OBP is great but speed along basepaths is an element that kills in baseball.

Many advanced baseball metrics have tried to incorporate baserunning, check out Runs Created.

For Davis, even with SB/CS included as per Runs Created / Game, Davis was 4.0, which was below league average (4.5), and trailed the likes of David Cooper, Adam Lind, Ben Francisco, Kelly Johnson, and barely better than Colby Rasmus.
 

LloydChristmas*

Guest
No team is ever perfect. No team will be an eternal perennial contender. Even if this only lasts 3 years, at least we'll know we went for it. If D'Arnaud and Syndergaard ever reach their ceilings, it won't be for at least 4, 5, even 6 years probably. By then we won't have the same pieces we do now still in their primes and still healthy. After hearing Anthopoulos talk on the fan the other day, I had a complete change of heart. I was at first pretty cheesed about the Dickey trade, but I can totally understand it now. We've gotta give this thing a real go while everything else is the way it is. It's too rare and too beautiful of a thing not to take full advantage of it while you can.
 

The Nemesis

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I would die lmao

I wanted the Jays to get Michael Young and use him at 2B, because I would never leave Rogers Center because both Reyes and Young would be on the Blue Jays

I have my doubts that Young could be a regular 2B anymore. Hell, there was some questioning whether or not he could be a regular 3B (in spite of the fact that 3B is what the Phillies seem to be intending for him)
 

LloydChristmas*

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So I guess we will be like the Phillies from now on in that our farm system will be used to constantly reload major league holes because the talent is at the low levels and takes to long to reach eventually depleting both the major and minor leagues after a 5 year span.

Phillies have a World Series win in the past 5 years. I'll gladly take that over sustained regular season success, making the playoffs, even winning pennants for 100 straight years.

EDIT: 100 straight pennants would be cool. Still though, hard to argue with the Philadelphia model despite the direction they might be headed in now.
 

krs82

Registered User
Oct 16, 2007
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Any one know where we can watch the Knuckleball documentary about dickey and wakefield, online?
thanks

Obviously can't give a link but it's really not that hard to find. Google is your friend

Actually watching it now and it's really good. Hope dickey doesn't get any broken nails lol

Edit: ok the guy above me gave a link
 
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Bomber0104

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with respect, your analogy doesn't make sense. baserunning has to do with investing in the home, and something about kitchen and bathroom renovations and people that do nothing not adding value. I'm really not sure what direction you're trying to take it. A more apt homebuyer/baseball player analogy would be something like different improvement/value boosting aspects for renovations represent different skills each contributing to the overall value of the home, and you could say that something like garage renos are baserunning/stealing because they're not something everyone looks for, but they can add a lot of value to someone for whom that part of the house is valuable (a person who works on cars a lot) similarly steals aren't something that every team values high in their acquisitions compared to contact, power, defence, etc, but they're highly valuable to someone that wants to add speed. But even then it's still a clumsy analogy. I don't even like making this "you could use the analogy like this:" statement because it's so clunky.

I've been reading a lot about Beane and his methodology towards 'going to where the puck is going to be, not where it's been'. As people pick up on what's been discovered, they move on to what has not been, and that to me is baserunning. Like someone has said, there is a definitive drawback to a baserunner's ambition on the basebath BUT if you understand the arithmetic behind Beane's reluctance to bunt sacrifice an out to swipe a bag then you may begin to understand the value of a baserunner who can not only claim bags that he ordinarily shouldn't (rounding third) but also to steal? well it is just of infinite value to a team. Jose Reyes? Emilio Bonafacio? Rajai Davis? Brett Lawrie? Anthony Gose? These guys aren't here by coincidence Nemesis.

It's not like baserunning ability is ignored in stats, it's just not featured in SLG/OPS because those stats aren't meant for baserunning. What you're saying is akin to saying that strikeouts should be factored into WHIP because a high ability to strike guys out makes the guys that get on base less of a concern since strikeouts don't give them a chance to advance like outs in the field to. But like this stealing/SLG suggestion, it ignores that the stat (WHIP in this case, SLG/OPS in the other) was created specifically for another purpose not tied to the element that's proposed to effect it (strikeouts or steals).

Have you analyzed these statistics, for example when comparing Colby Rasmus to Rajai Davis? Obviously you haven't because you'd pretty soon realize that not only is Rasmus declining and Davis improving, but Davis' stolen bags directly impact the Jays ability to win. Do the math.

If you want to judge someone's ability to impact the game with steals, look at their baserunning stats and look at their on base stats and use both. There's a point where continuing to streamline stats doesn't serve any useful purpose.

I disagree entirely. If you claim one bag, and if you are successful 78% of the time in claiming 2nd base coupled with the ability to round home in the instance of a single hit thereafter, you are more likely to score a run. Again, I implore you to run some statistics on this.

What? Billy Beane didn't make WAR nor do I imagine he has his own framework for WAR. And I imagine that they have a wide net in terms of the stats they use to analyze players that includes steals and baserunning. I like WAR, but it's a conversation piece first and foremost. If you're going to start pulling out a mass of stats (as would be smart for something as important as actual baseball decision making), WAR becomes less valuable since you're going to be including many of WAR's components and WAR essentially starts doubling up on analysis.

and FWIW, steals have traditionally been a low-priority target for the A's and Beane because it's something that is valued so highly around the rest of baseball. Teams around the league tend to pay a premium for fast players that rack up steals, so it makes no sense for hte A's to spend money there when they can more efficiently use that money to purchase other undervalued skillsets and get more mileage out of their dollar. Maybe eventually speed on the basepaths will become a cheaper option the way defence has to some degree, but it hasn't really happened yet.

I suppose it's absolutely no coincidence that the A's had the amongst the highest steals in the entire major leagues? No coincidence? And the rest of the league continues to spend on batting averages, slugging percentages, and on-base percentages (now anyway)? I believe speed is one of the most affordable inefficiencies available to a general manager these days and its been rampant for some time now.
 

Cloned

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Aug 25, 2003
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Phillies have a World Series win in the past 5 years. I'll gladly take that over sustained regular season success, making the playoffs, even winning pennants for 100 straight years.

EDIT: 100 straight pennants would be cool. Still though, hard to argue with the Philadelphia model despite the direction they might be headed in now.

The only reason the Phillies are in the situation they're in now is because they failed to realize their window was passing. I think AA is smart enough to see a gradual decline when it happens - instead of reloading for another try during the decline I think he'll sit back and let things happen, maybe trade a few veterans for prospects. Essentially, I think the Jays direction in the next 10 years will look something like:

3 years - true contenders
4 years - middle of the pack, restocking the prospect cupboards, trading vets for prospects
3 years - true contenders
 

LloydChristmas*

Guest
I love Gregg Zaun



:lol:

That's awesome haha. I love Hemingways. Reminds me of a story I heard from a buddy about fighting Zaun at Oasis one time. Gotta love the jam he brings into the mix.
 

The Nemesis

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Apr 11, 2005
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I've been reading a lot about Beane and his methodology towards 'going to where the puck is going to be, not where it's been'. As people pick up on what's been discovered, they move on to what has not been, and that to me is baserunning. Like someone has said, there is a definitive drawback to a baserunner's ambition on the basebath BUT if you understand the arithmetic behind Beane's reluctance to bunt sacrifice an out to swipe a bag then you may begin to understand the value of a baserunner who can not only claim bags that he ordinarily shouldn't (rounding third) but also to steal? well it is just of infinite value to a team. Jose Reyes? Emilio Bonafacio? Rajai Davis? Brett Lawrie? Anthony Gose? These guys aren't here by coincidence Nemesis.

Jose Reyes is an outstanding hitter when he's healthy. Emilio Bonifacio provides high value by being capable of playing multiple positions with a still serviceable bat. Brett Larwie is an emerging defender and has good potential at the plate for power and overall hitting ability. Gose is practically MLB elite level defence and arm strength already. Yes their ability to run the bases and get steals is part of their value, but it's not the most significant part of their value except for Davis. I never said speed wasn't important. I never claimed that the Jays weren't building for speed. I never said anything about speed as an asset to a major league team at all. My point was that SLG/OPS have an expressed purpose right now and they fulfill that purpose just fine. And said purpose does not include a player's baserunning ability. If you want a catchall offensive stat that incorporates steals, then you're looking for something like runs created or Bill James' Power/Speed rating or the like. It makes more sense to use a stat that fits your intent than it does to try and force a different one to fulfill your needs when that's not what it's meant for.



Have you analyzed these statistics, for example when comparing Colby Rasmus to Rajai Davis? Obviously you haven't because you'd pretty soon realize that not only is Rasmus declining and Davis improving, but Davis' stolen bags directly impact the Jays ability to win. Do the math.

Did I miss the part where I referred to Rasmus? Because as far as I can recall, I never brought him up. I never even brought up anything that had anything to do with him or Davis in particular. The entire point of my post was to take issue with this "SBs should impact SLG/OPS" assertion you made.

I will say that it's a little presumptuous to say that Rasmus is "declining"after 2 down seasons as a 24 and 25 year old (and only 4 seasons in the bigs in total) and that Rajai Davis is improving when his 2010 season in Oakland was either on-par or better (and WAR and wRC+ among other metrics would suggest there was something to his 09 season as well) than his 2012 season, and said seasons were largely successful because he got regular playing time as a starter.

But I'm not getting into any debate on Rasmus vs Davis beyond this, because it had nothing to do with my initial posts and I'm not going to let this tangent cloud or distract from the issue. If someone else wants to take up that torch, they're more than welcome to it though.

I disagree entirely. If you claim one bag, and if you are successful 78% of the time in claiming 2nd base coupled with the ability to round home in the instance of a single hit thereafter, you are more likely to score a run. Again, I implore you to run some statistics on this.

You keep telling me to "do the math" and "run the statistics" but at no point did I ever say that speed and steals weren't important. I know they're useful. I know they help you win games provided you don't get caught that often. This was never a part of the debate for me. I don't know why you keep snarking at me like I said steals are worthless or unimportant. It's like you're seeing an entirely different argument compared to what I wrote.



I suppose it's absolutely no coincidence that the A's had the amongst the highest steals in the entire major leagues? No coincidence? And the rest of the league continues to spend on batting averages, slugging percentages, and on-base percentages (now anyway)? I believe speed is one of the most affordable inefficiencies available to a general manager these days and its been rampant for some time now.

Wait, Oakland did what now?

In 2012, the A's were 9th in total steals. Yes it was top third of the league, but let's not pretend that they were suddenly speed merchants. In fact almost 1/3rd of their steals came from Coco Crisp. Beyond that they got 16 and 15 out of Jemile Weekes and Cliff Pennington (both developed in system), 16 out of Cespedes (who they got by spending truckload of money on and whose calling card was the power potential in his bat), and 11 out of Josh Reddick. Past that, no other A had more than 5 steals. and this is the team that just 2 years ago decided they could do without Rajai Davis, trading him for a pair of utterly replaceable relief arms (that they shortly thereafter ended up giving back to the Blue Jays for even less)

The A's have been successful because they continue to roll out good young pitchers (an organizational calling card) and because the big inefficiency du jour has been defence. And yes, the steals helped too.

While I appear to potentially be wrong about whether or not speed is becoming a market inefficiency, or is at least not quite as much of a luxury spending item as it has been in the past, I'm not relenting on my disagreement with your belief that baserunning should be incorporated into SLG and/or OPS. Because that was the issue I raised, and nothing in your above post did anything to address that. Instead it raised a bunch of tangentially related points as if they were in response to questions or statements that I never made.
 

Grant

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Jan 16, 2012
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No team is ever perfect. No team will be an eternal perennial contender. Even if this only lasts 3 years, at least we'll know we went for it. If D'Arnaud and Syndergaard ever reach their ceilings, it won't be for at least 4, 5, even 6 years probably. By then we won't have the same pieces we do now still in their primes and still healthy. After hearing Anthopoulos talk on the fan the other day, I had a complete change of heart. I was at first pretty cheesed about the Dickey trade, but I can totally understand it now. We've gotta give this thing a real go while everything else is the way it is. It's too rare and too beautiful of a thing not to take full advantage of it while you can.

That was my view on it once I heard of the rumours. We won't always have players like JBats and EE. We won't always be able to do a trade like we did with the Marlins. When events like those all overlap together, you need to give it your all. Opportunities like this don't happen often and you have to make the most of them when they do. TDA can go on to be a great catcher, but if the Jays win the WS nobody will care about what was given up in that trade.
 

Bomber0104

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Apr 8, 2007
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Jose Reyes is an outstanding hitter when he's healthy. Emilio Bonifacio provides high value by being capable of playing multiple positions with a still serviceable bat. Brett Larwie is an emerging defender and has good potential at the plate for power and overall hitting ability. Gose is practically MLB elite level defence and arm strength already. Yes their ability to run the bases and get steals is part of their value, but it's not the most significant part of their value except for Davis. I never said speed wasn't important. I never claimed that the Jays weren't building for speed. I never said anything about speed as an asset to a major league team at all. My point was that SLG/OPS have an expressed purpose right now and they fulfill that purpose just fine. And said purpose does not include a player's baserunning ability. If you want a catchall offensive stat that incorporates steals, then you're looking for something like runs created or Bill James' Power/Speed rating or the like. It makes more sense to use a stat that fits your intent than it does to try and force a different one to fulfill your needs when that's not what it's meant for.

I haven't even read Bill James' pieces on stealing bases but the fact is it remains one of the key athletic abilities requires to play the game and that is : batting, pitching, catching, throwing, and running. There are only five. Running happens to be a vital component of scoring a run and there is not a variable in baseball that can stop it. Not one. But it is valued least for some reason?

Did I miss the part where I referred to Rasmus? Because as far as I can recall, I never brought him up. I never even brought up anything that had anything to do with him or Davis in particular. The entire point of my post was to take issue with this "SBs should impact SLG/OPS" assertion you made.I will say that it's a little presumptuous to say that Rasmus is "declining"after 2 down seasons as a 24 and 25 year old (and only 4 seasons in the bigs in total) and that Rajai Davis is improving when his 2010 season in Oakland was either on-par or better (and WAR and wRC+ among other metrics would suggest there was something to his 09 season as well) than his 2012 season, and said seasons were largely successful because he got regular playing time as a starter.

Davis should be the CF. Not Rasmus. I'm not going to get long winded either. If you understand my larger philosophies for baseball you'd understand why I assume Davis is our starting CF.


You keep telling me to "do the math" and "run the statistics" but at no point did I ever say that speed and steals weren't important. I know they're useful. I know they help you win games provided you don't get caught that often. This was never a part of the debate for me. I don't know why you keep snarking at me like I said steals are worthless or unimportant. It's like you're seeing an entirely different argument compared to what I wrote.

I'm trying to illustrate a point here that not only has AA been putting value and emphasis on speed in his batting order but also small clubs like Beane's. It's worth noting.


Wait, Oakland did what now?

In 2012, the A's were 9th in total steals. Yes it was top third of the league, but let's not pretend that they were suddenly speed merchants. In fact almost 1/3rd of their steals came from Coco Crisp. Beyond that they got 16 and 15 out of Jemile Weekes and Cliff Pennington (both developed in system), 16 out of Cespedes (who they got by spending truckload of money on and whose calling card was the power potential in his bat), and 11 out of Josh Reddick. Past that, no other A had more than 5 steals. and this is the team that just 2 years ago decided they could do without Rajai Davis, trading him for a pair of utterly replaceable relief arms (that they shortly thereafter ended up giving back to the Blue Jays for even less)

The A's have been successful because they continue to roll out good young pitchers (an organizational calling card) and because the big inefficiency du jour has been defence. And yes, the steals helped too.

And would this not replicate what AA is doing here in Toronto? Pitching precedence coupled with speed (but also a TRUCK load of power?)????

While I appear to potentially be wrong about whether or not speed is becoming a market inefficiency, or is at least not quite as much of a luxury spending item as it has been in the past, I'm not relenting on my disagreement with your belief that baserunning should be incorporated into SLG and/or OPS. Because that was the issue I raised, and nothing in your above post did anything to address that. Instead it raised a bunch of tangentially related points as if they were in response to questions or statements that I never made.

I have no idea what you did or did not consider to be an inefficiency. I've just been starting to post again as a hockey (PO'ed Leaf fan) fan (let alone a BASEBALL fan). All I am communicating here is what I've been observing for quite some time now.
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
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I haven't even read Bill James' pieces on stealing bases but the fact is it remains one of the key athletic abilities requires to play the game and that is : batting, pitching, catching, throwing, and running. There are only five. Running happens to be a vital component of scoring a run and there is not a variable in baseball that can stop it. Not one. But it is valued least for some reason?

again utterly irrelevant to the initial discussion of whether or not SLG/OPS should incorporate steals.



Davis should be the CF. Not Rasmus. I'm not going to get long winded either. If you understand my larger philosophies for baseball you'd understand why I assume Davis is our starting CF.

I said I wasn't going to do this, but one brief note: according to wRC+ (which does incorporate steals) they were worth about the same last year, and that doesn't include the fact that Rasmus is a superior defender to Davis. While that doesn't excuse the fact that Rasmus hasn't lived up to his potential, let's not pretend that Davis is significantly or obviously far superior to Rasmus. They both have warts and neither is an ideal solution at present.




I'm trying to illustrate a point here that not only has AA been putting value and emphasis on speed in his batting order but also small clubs like Beane's. It's worth noting.

and I never resisted that. I did note that the speed was secondary to other assets the players provide. More of an added perk than a point of importance (ie if you could get a guy who offered good D and or a good bat and he also had speed, all the better), but once again I never said speed wasn't useful/important to some degree.




And would this not replicate what AA is doing here in Toronto? Pitching precedence coupled with speed (but also a TRUCK load of power?)????

Never said that. Was never even part of the discussion before. This seems to be a continuing problem with this debate: it's not really a debate. Every time you make a claim or assertion and I provide a counterargument, you tend to go off on a different tangent instead of directly responding to the issue that was being discussed.

You bring up that SLG/OPS should have a speed component. I question if that's necessary or appropriate. You then turn to talking about what Oakland did. I question if that lines up with what really happened and what it means. You then turn it to saying that Toronto is trying to do the same thing. Instead of drilling down into the initial argument and exploring it until it's exhausted, we just keep jumping to different tracks.



I have no idea what you did or did not consider to be an inefficiency. I've just been starting to post again as a hockey (PO'ed Leaf fan) fan (let alone a BASEBALL fan). All I am communicating here is what I've been observing for quite some time now.

Not 2 of my posts ago I said I didn't think speed was a market inefficiency now. I said I thought it was still a premium skill. That's why last post I admitted that my initial judgement was bit hasty. You even know I said it wasn't a market inefficiency at first because that's one of the things in my other post that you actually did respond to. You questioned it by saying that the A's were among one of the more steal-conscious teams in MLB last year.

Honestly, it continues to seem like we're having two entirely different arguments here, or that you're reading completely different things into the posts that I've written.
 

McDeepika

Registered User
Aug 14, 2004
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The only reason the Phillies are in the situation they're in now is because they failed to realize their window was passing. I think AA is smart enough to see a gradual decline when it happens - instead of reloading for another try during the decline I think he'll sit back and let things happen, maybe trade a few veterans for prospects. Essentially, I think the Jays direction in the next 10 years will look something like:

3 years - true contenders
4 years - middle of the pack, restocking the prospect cupboards, trading vets for prospects
3 years - true contenders

What situation are the Phillies in exactly? They won 102 games 2 years ago and finished 81-81 last year with Utley and Howard missing a lot of time and Halladay having an off-season.

I would bet they win 90+ games this year.
 

McDeepika

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Aug 14, 2004
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Now I admit I am ignorant, but what the hell is so special about Beane. Yes I understand that he has built playoff teams with a low budget but isn't his whole moneyball philosophy about scoring runs? When is the last time the A's had a good offense? The last time they were top 5 in runs scored in the A.L was 2001. That was the last year they had Giambi (Not exactly some secret moneyball find).

Their credit should go to having a great development system for producing good pitchers shouldn't it?
 

LloydChristmas*

Guest
What situation are the Phillies in exactly? They won 102 games 2 years ago and finished 81-81 last year with Utley and Howard missing a lot of time and Halladay having an off-season.

I would bet they win 90+ games this year.

Meh, aging core, not many prospects to look forward to. They still have a great looking team and very well may win 90+ this year. But the future beyond the next couple years seems a little bleak. Not to harp on them, my initial post was actually defending them. Just saying, farm system is slightly depleted. Vets like Utley, Rollins, Howard losing their edge. Halladay and Lee included. Lots of guys spending time on DL, as is expected when your core guys start to hit a certain age. Things definitely aren't on the upswing (like us) anymore.
 
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with respect, your analogy doesn't make sense. baserunning has to do with investing in the home, and something about kitchen and bathroom renovations and people that do nothing not adding value. I'm really not sure what direction you're trying to take it. A more apt homebuyer/baseball player analogy would be something like different improvement/value boosting aspects for renovations represent different skills each contributing to the overall value of the home, and you could say that something like garage renos are baserunning/stealing because they're not something everyone looks for, but they can add a lot of value to someone for whom that part of the house is valuable (a person who works on cars a lot) similarly steals aren't something that every team values high in their acquisitions compared to contact, power, defence, etc, but they're highly valuable to someone that wants to add speed. But even then it's still a clumsy analogy. I don't even like making this "you could use the analogy like this:" statement because it's so clunky.

It's not like baserunning ability is ignored in stats, it's just not featured in SLG/OPS because those stats aren't meant for baserunning. What you're saying is akin to saying that strikeouts should be factored into WHIP because a high ability to strike guys out makes the guys that get on base less of a concern since strikeouts don't give them a chance to advance like outs in the field to. But like this stealing/SLG suggestion, it ignores that the stat (WHIP in this case, SLG/OPS in the other) was created specifically for another purpose not tied to the element that's proposed to effect it (strikeouts or steals).

If you want to judge someone's ability to impact the game with steals, look at their baserunning stats and look at their on base stats and use both. There's a point where continuing to streamline stats doesn't serve any useful purpose.

What? Billy Beane didn't make WAR nor do I imagine he has his own framework for WAR. And I imagine that they have a wide net in terms of the stats they use to analyze players that includes steals and baserunning. I like WAR, but it's a conversation piece first and foremost. If you're going to start pulling out a mass of stats (as would be smart for something as important as actual baseball decision making), WAR becomes less valuable since you're going to be including many of WAR's components and WAR essentially starts doubling up on analysis.

and FWIW, steals have traditionally been a low-priority target for the A's and Beane because it's something that is valued so highly around the rest of baseball. Teams around the league tend to pay a premium for fast players that rack up steals, so it makes no sense for hte A's to spend money there when they can more efficiently use that money to purchase other undervalued skillsets and get more mileage out of their dollar. Maybe eventually speed on the basepaths will become a cheaper option the way defence has to some degree, but it hasn't really happened yet.

Best of luck. Bomber will challenge your abillities in a unique way.


My self I am looking at Reyes, ???, Bautista, EncArnacion, Lawrie and on the other side of the ball Romero going from #1 to the #5 and I am loving this offseason. If his "injury" in 2012 was real and he returns to 2011 form, there is a good chance as a caller suggested that he might win 20 games facing the #4-5 of other teams as opposed to the #1 on a regular basis.

As the fan 590 guy. put it, "This became a baseball town again."

I never thought I would say this but **** the NHL season and let's get started on the MLB season. I am excited about his Blue Jays team.
 

Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
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3,351
Milton
I think Josh Johnson is going to have a huge year. He will likely pitch 2nd in the rotation behind Dickey and hitters would have a hard time catching up to his fastball after going against Dickey's knuckleball. Remember he got better as the season went along last year. He could put Greinke type numbers with an era around 3.30 - 3.50. Brandon Morrow will be going up against number 4's so he should have a great year too. There are some questions for sure but thats just the nature of starting pitching. It could be the best rotation in baseball if everything goes right.
 

Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,151
3,351
Milton
Angels problem is pitching. After Weaver there isn't much. Great offence though.

I agree I would say there offence is the best in all of baseball - Jays 2nd, Dodgers third. Reds and Tigers have solid line ups too.
 
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