Odds the Leafs actually keep this year’s first round pick?

Will the Leafs actually have a 1st round pick this year heading into the draft?


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    157

kb

Registered User
Aug 28, 2009
15,283
21,717
From 1996-2008 the Red Wings traded 7 first round picks in total.

1996 Detroit traded Paul Coffey, Keith Primeau and a 1997 1st round pick for Brendan Shanahan and Brian Glynn.
1999 Detroit traded Anders Eriksson, 1999 and 2001 1st round picks for Chris Chelios.
2001 Detroit traded Vyacheslav Kozlov and a 2002 1st round pick for Dominik Hasek.
2003 Detroit traded Sean Avery, Maxim Kuznetsov, 2003 1st round pick and 2004 2nd round pick for Mathieu Schneider.
2004 Detroit traded Tomas Fleischmann, 2004 1st round pick and 2006 4th round pick for Robert Lang.
2006 Detroit traded 2006 1st round pick and 5th round pick for two 2nd round picks. (Just a draft trade)

Was actually surprised how often they did end up trading their first round picks but they did end up with huge core pieces for their 4 cups in that time frame. Winning in 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2008.

I'm not sure if we're ready to give up 1st rounders yet but I can definitely see it happening to try and push us over the top when the time comes.

Granted this was partially during a different time where first round picks were not quite as valuable imo.
They actually traded away their first round pick in 10 out of 20 seasons. And occasionally their 2nd those years too.
 

Liminality

Registered User
Oct 22, 2008
13,366
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They actually traded away their first round pick in 10 out of 20 seasons. And occasionally their 2nd those years too.
10? I must have missed some trades, I did notice they traded their 2nd quite a bit too.
 
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PromisedLand

I need more FOOD
Dec 3, 2016
42,705
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Hogwarts
I like Tampa's execution. They've done a great job of balancing present and future.

because they found a guy like Kucherov in the second round; if Leafs can do that as well it will only make things better

like how wings found lindstrom, zetterberg and datsyuk in later rounds
 
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Mckay

I find your lack of gravy disturbing.
Mar 5, 2014
659
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Canada
IF they are ever going to trade it for an upgrade a D. This would be the year. I vote they trade it.
 
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Judas Tavares

S2S (Sundin2Sandin)
Sponsor
Feb 9, 2007
10,188
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I'd be surprised. Windows aren't 2 years and done. Ask washington. Its been 15 years since they drafted ovie. Lets be competitive in 2030-2031 as well.
 

Antropovsky

Registered User
Jun 2, 2007
14,157
5,192
"Barely opened?"

Nah man when you Matthews Tavares and Kadri down the middle your window is WIDE open

I should have been more clear, because you are misinterpreting my words.

"Barely opened" Meaning them being a Stanley Cup favourite, has now just opened. I don't have a small open, medium open, and a wide open. It's just open.
 

NightTrain1

Registered User
Oct 20, 2013
532
579
Let's look at a team that built itself through the draft primarily and then focused on building itself into a 12 year cup contender by trading its picks. This was done with more than just 1st round picks of course but thats all im looking at.

Pittsburgh essentially finished building its first cycle of a cup contender in 2006 with Jordan Staal in the first round.

Over the next 12 years they chose to draft 6 of their own 12 first round choices but also traded for 1 extra in 2012 when they moved Staal . Of those 7 only 3 are currently playing in the NHL right now and only 1 is with the Penguins on 3rd line duty.

The Penguins used some of these picks to acquire superstar Marion Hossa on a rental who was instrumental in the Penguins 2008 playoffs which eventually led to a game 6 defeat to Detroit. The following year he left but Pittsburgh traded one of its own former 1st round picks Whitney to bring in Chris Kunitz who has been a catalyst for their 3 cup victories.
Aging star Jarome Iginla who helped them to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2013
Superstar Phill Kessel who has been integral part of the team and both their cup victories in 2015 and 2016.

The final total for the Penguins since they built their original team of Crosby, Malkin, Fleury, Whitney and Staal
12 years of first round picks
6 traded away
1 traded in
1 currently playing for Pittsburgh in a bottom 6 role.

12 straight years of playoffs
29 playoff rounds
4 first round exits
3 second round exits
1 conference final exit
1 stanley cup exit
3 Stanley Cup victories.

The best part of Pittsburgh constantly reloading is that one of their first round picks brought Freddie Anderson to us, and the other is Kasperi Kapanen on our first line right now.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The counterpart to the Penguins is of course Washington

They finished their first cycle load in 2007 drafting Karl Alzer.

Washington chose a different direction for their path. Not only did they keep most of their first round choices, they also chose to trade for more.
in 11 draft years they traded away 2 first round picks but still drafted 11 total by doubling up on two occasions.

Wahington struck gold twice with two very late first round choices in 2008 and 2010, Kuznetsov and Carlson who are keys to Washingtons current success.
Washington also has 3 other of their 1st round picks playing roles on their team currently.
Washington only made one significant 1st round deal for Shattenkirk in 2015 that didnt go anywhere.


In 11 seasons
1 did not qualify for playoffs
3 first round exits
6 second round exits
no conference finals exits
1 Stanley Cup victory
 

Menzinger

Kessel4LadyByng
Apr 24, 2014
41,168
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St. Paul, MN
Deadline deals are dumb. Rentals rarely seem to make an impact. And it’s a time where it’s almost always a market that favours sellers over buyers.

Would potentially be worth moving at the draft though if though could use it to get a. Clear cut 2nd pairing guy. Leafs need to seriously take advantage of JT playing like he is, because he’s probably only going to sustain this level of play for like another 2-3 seasons beyond this one before he starts to inevitably decline

Edit:

Picks are also in general worth more st the draft or during the lead up period
 

7even

Offered and lost
Feb 1, 2012
18,643
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North Carolina
because they found a guy like Kucherov in the second round; if Leafs can do that as well it will only make things better

like how wings found lindstrom, zetterberg and datsyuk in later rounds

I was more talking about how they stockpiled young talent, which let them make a play for McDonagh and JT Miller last year.
 

socko

Registered User
Nov 26, 2013
7,495
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Martinez, GA
The Red Wings didn't make the playoffs for 25 years straight by giving away their draft picks. Many teams, including the Leafs, tried to buy their way to the Cup pre-salary cap, it seldom worked. Are you guys/gals too young to remember that?
 

Marmoset

Registered User
Apr 4, 2015
712
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GTA
I don't think the comparisons to past teams like the Red Wings, Penguins and Caps are entirely valid.

Many of those teams were operating in a different financial universe than the one the NHL has now. A key difference is that the 'cap circumvention' contracts were used to sign players to lower cap hits than you can under the current CBA. Therefore, being able to bring up young players on ELCs who can contribute is more critical now than it was in the past. The recent Penguin cup teams demonstrated how important this is with guys like Sheary, Rust, Guentzel, etc. Of course, many of those guys were drafted with late round picks, which goes to show it doesn't really matter where the young guys on ELCs come from as long as you find them. Perhaps the Leafs bringing in top players from Europe to play can fill that same role; however, first round picks are still a more likely way to find those guys that the late round picks the Pens did it with.

I also agree with a point already made that trading a first rounder for an impact guy like Kessel is very different from trading for a rental at the deadline who will play a couple of months for you.

If you are a contender and trading your first rounder could make the difference in bringing the cup here, you have to seriously consider it. We won't know where we are on this front until much later in the season. Last year, the guy we needed was already in our system in Travis Dermott. Perhaps something similar happens this year, where by mid-season we have someone on the Marlies who is obviously ready to step in. I don't really have any evidence, but my gut is that this front office will be averse to trading the first rounder unless it's for a true impact player who is not just a rental.
 

Taluss

Registered User
Jul 28, 2018
8,250
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NYC
Because at some point they have to, you can't keep every 1st round pick

I’d wait another year or 2. Look at the team now, imagine once those players listed develop (the post you responded to) That’s when I feel like there is little to no question about a cup and a first would be handy to give up
 

darrylsittler27

Registered User
Oct 21, 2002
6,653
1,125
Im not saying they will but Im not ruling it out. Depends how they see the draft. For example if say 25 to 60 is close they may trade it in a package but demand a 2nd rounder back. If it becomes the deciding factor on getting a top 2 dman they just might do it.
 

Stephen

Moderator
Feb 28, 2002
78,722
53,257
If by personally, you mean you are itching to trade the pick, then yes.

In reality, it's pretty normal for a contender to keep their first rounder, and years down the line it becomes more obvious. Imagine if the Washington Capitals had traded their Kuznetsov pick for some short term playoff rental.

If the Leafs keep drafting well, those higher profile prospects also are better trade chips than low first round picks anyway.
 

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