Observations XXVIII

[Pred303]

just forget this season already, it's time to think of salvaging next year.

 

[Adz]

I'll admit, I've sort of moved on from the 2019-20 season. I do feel for those teams/fans on the brink of a great run*, but at this point every game going forward in this season is prefaced by an asterisk. You can't claim "it's a marathon not a sprint" if every player has had months off to heal. You can't say a group has finally "gelled as a team" when they have to have another training camp before they can start playing again. The dream of the players is not to skate around an empty arena holding the Cup. Sure, they'll be happy to win, but it takes a lot from the experience. Just end it, take the financial loss, and start in October (or whenever).

If they decide to play, I'll watch and cheer for the Preds, of course. I'll even care about wins and losses. But this is a trash season, might as well go ahead and dump it.

*Honestly a little surprised the Preds aren't one of them with our luck.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Answers to all these questions: Follow the Money. Regular season needs to be finished due to structure of Regional Fox Sports TV contracts. If they don't finish, no more money this year and it reduces money for next year. Given the reality of fan-less games when they come back, TV is their only major revenue source. They need the Fox regular season money and the playoff money.

Salary caps being hard-wired into league revenues is a brutal reality for the players. They're like owners now. When revenues go down, costs must go down. Haven't seen the number yet, but if they don't come back this year, it's gonna be a hit. Then there's the mystery behind the 20-21 season. It'll start during flu season and the freakout mode we've normalized could cause a major drop in attendance, if not another shutdown. When people factor health concerns in with the high cost, it will result in lower attendance and lower revenues. With guaranteed contracts, fitting under a declining cap will be interesting.

We broke this things without taking into consideration it's full ramifications. As long as we're all hailing the Social-Distancing-Gods, sitting shoulder-to-shoulder in the stands of any sport, concert, play, show can't happen. Major league sports has already lost $12 Billion. Can't wait to see how they're gonna square this circle.

For the record, I'd open games up to the fans willing to take the risk. If you think that's crazy, you can keep yourself safe by stay home. If you think it'll bury the hospitals, it's debatable. Try it and see what happens. If it does, you can always reverse it. Major sports financing is not built for fan-less games, especially hockey.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

...
For the record, I'd open games up to the fans willing to take the risk. If you think that's crazy, you can keep yourself safe by stay home. If you think it'll bury the hospitals, it's debatable. Try it and see what happens. If it does, you can always reverse it. Major sports financing is not built for fan-less games, especially hockey.

The NHL finances part was good... but I still don't think you get it wrt to the shutdown situation. 20,000 of you and your friends going to a hockey game makes it more dangerous for EVERYBODY in the population. Nobody is staying completely at home. We go out to get groceries and some of us still work in some areas, even in the previous shutdown situation. So we still interact with people. But the population of carriers we might interract with is relatively low, and kept lower by the distancing measures, so the community transmission is minimized. Now you want to ramp that population of community carriers up significantly. And you can't "reverse it".

You can't have two sets of rules where some people go back to life as usual and others can choose not to. It's all or nothing. Once you open up, the cat is out of the bag for everybody, there is no option for anybody to keep themselves safe by just staying home from hockey games, not if they want to live the rest of their life relatively normally anyway.

Attending hockey games in person is just entertainment and a luxury item. It's one of the last things to place any value on when it comes time to phase things back to normal. We can do without hockey for a while longer yet.

 

[drwpreds]

For the record, I'd open games up to the fans willing to take the risk. If you think that's crazy, you can keep yourself safe by stay home. If you think it'll bury the hospitals, it's debatable. Try it and see what happens. If it does, you can always reverse it. Major sports financing is not built for fan-less games, especially hockey.

I may be in the minority but I think we should have sports WITH fans at least starting this Fall/Winter.

I won't get into it too deeply because it is a better conversation for the corona thread, but more and more evidence continues to point to this Virus being much, less deadly than anticipated. My thing is this- this Virus did not just hit in March when everything was shut down. It was almost certainly here in January and February- we just didn't know it. We had a severe sickness break out in our office in February- flu like symptoms. All went to doctor and were tested for flu- all came back negative. No doubt in our minds they all had Covid 19. They all recovered in a few days. So despite us all working very close with them in the same building during February and part of March, not one person in our office has tested positive for Corona.

My point is- this virus was here in January and February when all of us were going on with normal life. I bet anything that if everyone in the US could be tested, we would find that millions have or have had the virus, making the death rate way, way lower than it appears to be right now (and even now it is low)

It is time to open back up and start getting back to normal.

 

[drwpreds]

The NHL finances part was good... but I still don't think you get it wrt to the shutdown situation. 20,000 of you and your friends going to a hockey game makes it more dangerous for EVERYBODY in the population. Nobody is staying completely at home. We go out to get groceries and some of us still work in some areas, even in the previous shutdown situation. So we still interact with people. But the population of carriers we might interract with is relatively low, and kept lower by the distancing measures, so the community transmission is minimized. Now you want to ramp that population of community carriers up significantly. And you can't "reverse it".

You can't have two sets of rules where some people go back to life as usual and others can choose not to. It's all or nothing. Once you open up, the cat is out of the bag for everybody, there is no option for anybody to keep themselves safe by just staying home from hockey games, not if they want to live the rest of their life relatively normally anyway.

Attending hockey games in person is just entertainment and a luxury item. It's one of the last things to place any value on when it comes time to phase things back to normal. We can do without hockey for a while longer yet.

See my post above. What we should be doing is a targeted quarantine- elderly/those with serious underlying issues should definitely quarantine. Everyone else?? No- at some point this has to end. It HAS TO. We are destroying our economy- now over 30 million people out of a job. It is incredible to me that this is barely even mentioned anywhere. It is just as big a problem as the virus itself. It is going to lead to thousands of deaths, suicides, violence, domestic abuse, drug abuse, etc. etc. etc.

It is so easy to say, "just stay at home, how hard is that?" But if you are being told you cannot work or that your business is ruined because of the shutdown, what are those millions of people supposed to do??

What if we can't completely get rid of this virus ever- what is the end game? Keep the 98% of the country who have no danger from the virus shut down forever?? it just cannot be. We need to get back to living and do everything to help and protect those 2% who are at risk- and that can be done without shutting down and destroying our entire country.

 

[drwpreds]

As far as the season goes, and I can't believe i am saying this because the Preds and NHL hockey is pretty much my favorite thing in life- I am also almost to the point where i would just rather just move on and start next season on time. Especially if we won't get started again until July or August.

Then you have 2 seasons that are pretty well messed up

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

I respect your opinion but disagree with the premise. You are assuming an unacceptable death rate if we ramp up the population of potential community carriers. The facts are changing that narrative. The mortality rate is dropping under 1% now that we understand the much larger asymptomatic population, heading toward a bad flu rate. Look at that Trousdale prison. Perfect example: 2,450 total tests. 1,246 tested positive. 98% were asymptomatic. 2 were hospitalized. That is astounding! Instead of the slow merging of the population over a 6-12 month period, whereby we're destroying the livelihoods of millions of people, inform people of preventive measures (wash hands, don't touch face, wear face covering if you want, etc), allow freedom of choice and personal risk-taking, and condense the "spread" similar to what happened at the prison when nobody was paying attention and the "experts" were not dictating terms. IF hospitals overflow, you can temporarily tighten regulations. If you believe thousands of deaths from a virus is not tolerable, than you need to keep this shutdown in place until next Summer and through every flu season because even with a vaccine (which are far from sure things), 30,000-to-80,000 people die because they catch the virus from someone else and can't fight it off.

Facets of our lives involving being with groups of people in close proximity are not luxuries, in my opinion. Social interaction is a core purpose of living. Very short terminations of it for emergencies is of course warranted, assuming it doesn't cause a worse outcome than what you are trying to prevent. That's not where we are right now. The principles and goals of social distancing have morphed and have no logical end. They are unsustainable and toxic to our humanity in ways we don't even understand yet. That said, opening society up again does not force people to take on high risk activities. People can choose their level of risk. In a free society, it's not up to the collective to decide, within reason, what's for my own good. Nobody is smart enough to know all the unintended consequences of imposing "emergency" restrictions on personal freedoms, no matter how well intended. Especially when there is no end date.

We all love sports. If we continue to buy into the fear factor of imminent death caused by irresponsible proximity to other human beings, then these sports and teams and experiences we love are over.

 

[PredsV82]

See my post above. What we should be doing is a targeted quarantine- elderly/those with serious underlying issues should definitely quarantine. Everyone else?? No- at some point this has to end. It HAS TO. We are destroying our economy- now over 30 million people out of a job. It is incredible to me that this is barely even mentioned anywhere. It is just as big a problem as the virus itself. It is going to lead to thousands of deaths, suicides, violence, domestic abuse, drug abuse, etc. etc. etc.

It is so easy to say, "just stay at home, how hard is that?" But if you are being told you cannot work or that your business is ruined because of the shutdown, what are those millions of people supposed to do??

What if we can't completely get rid of this virus ever- what is the end game? Keep the 98% of the country who have no danger from the virus shut down forever?? it just cannot be. We need to get back to living and do everything to help and protect those 2% who are at risk- and that can be done without shutting down and destroying our entire country.

There are approximately 68 million people over age 60 in the US and a huge number more of people like me who are under 60 but have chronic illnesses like asthma.

I dont know where you get your 2% number but its wildly inaccurate. There is no feasible way to "protect the at risk" and let everyone else just do as they please.

States are starting to slowly and deliberately reopen. Let's see how that goes and react accordingly. And pray for an effective vaccine sooner rather than later.

 

[PredsV82]

I respect your opinion but disagree with the premise. You are assuming an unacceptable death rate if we ramp up the population of potential community carriers. The facts are changing that narrative. The mortality rate is dropping under 1% now that we understand the much larger asymptomatic population, heading toward a bad flu rate. Look at that Trousdale prison. Perfect example: 2,450 total tests. 1,246 tested positive. 98% were asymptomatic. 2 were hospitalized. That is astounding! Instead of the slow merging of the population over a 6-12 month period, whereby we're destroying the livelihoods of millions of people, inform people of preventive measures (wash hands, don't touch face, wear face covering if you want, etc), allow freedom of choice and personal risk-taking, and condense the "spread" similar to what happened at the prison when nobody was paying attention and the "experts" were not dictating terms. IF hospitals overflow, you can temporarily tighten regulations. If you believe thousands of deaths from a virus is not tolerable, than you need to keep this shutdown in place until next Summer and through every flu season because even with a vaccine (which are far from sure things), 30,000-to-80,000 people die because they catch the virus from someone else and can't fight it off.

Facets of our lives involving being with groups of people in close proximity are not luxuries, in my opinion. Social interaction is a core purpose of living. Very short terminations of it for emergencies is of course warranted, assuming it doesn't cause a worse outcome than what you are trying to prevent. That's not where we are right now. The principles and goals of social distancing have morphed and have no logical end. They are unsustainable and toxic to our humanity in ways we don't even understand yet. That said, opening society up again does not force people to take on high risk activities. People can choose their level of risk. In a free society, it's not up to the collective to decide, within reason, what's for my own good. Nobody is smart enough to know all the unintended consequences of imposing "emergency" restrictions on personal freedoms, no matter how well intended. Especially when there is no end date.

We all love sports. If we continue to buy into the fear factor of imminent death caused by irresponsible proximity to other human beings, then these sports and teams and experiences we love are over.

No. They are not. When an effective vaccine is available life will approach normal again. But you cherry picking one situation (a prison??) and acting like you can extrapolate that to the whole US population is just wrong.

Estimated death toll WITH all of the measures we have been taking was just revised upward to 135,000. Even the Trump admin expects the death toll to jump as reopening gets going. Just saying "f*** it" and opening the floodgates would make that number dramatically higher.

 

[Legionnaire11]

States are starting to slowly and deliberately reopen.

It's important to add, that there is presently no change in the risk for contracting the virus and no change in the recommended guidelines on how to protect yourself and others from it.

I'm afraid too many people will see the reopening process as a sign that things are improving and will let their guard down.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

No. They are not. When an effective vaccine is available life will approach normal again. But you cherry picking one situation (a prison??) and acting like you can extrapolate that to the whole US population is just wrong.

Estimated death toll WITH all of the measures we have been taking was just revised upward to 135,000. Even the Trump admin expects the death toll to jump as reopening gets going. Just saying "f*** it" and opening the floodgates would make that number dramatically higher.

Estimates for any vaccine, effective or not, is 8-to-18 months away. Lets say it's a year. How do we stay shutdown for a year. We've been doing it for 6 weeks and it's cost $5 trillion and 30 million jobs. We have isolated and demoralized people. There's not enough money in the world to backstop another 12 months. The floodgates didn't open in January and February when it was here and we didn't know it. If living normal but careful lives opens the floodgates, then it has to happen and run it's course. Absent an effective vaccine, there is no exit strategy for this trap that's been laid. Fearing imminent death from unmasked people at Kroger is no way I want to live life.

Drop the puck. I'll wear fang fingers and a goalie mask.

 

[sparkle twin]

2017 Playoffs, Round 1, Game 3 vs Chicago tonight.

The series moves to Smashville with the Preds leading 2-0.

Fox Sports TN 7pm Central.

Replays at 11pm, 5am (Wed.), 12pm (Wed.)

Post-Game Talk: - WIN!! - WCQF - Game 3 - Chicago at Nashville - NSH leads 3-0

 

[sparkle twin]

Also, I think these games are available on the Fox Sports Go App.

I think I saw someone tweet that, but of course now I can't find it.

Edit: they ARE available on the app. I checked and it was on there! So now, even you all that don't live in the viewing area can re-live these games!

 

[PredsV82]

Estimates for any vaccine, effective or not, is 8-to-18 months away. Lets say it's a year. How do we stay shutdown for a year. We've been doing it for 6 weeks and it's cost $5 trillion and 30 million jobs. We have isolated and demoralized people. There's not enough money in the world to backstop another 12 months. The floodgates didn't open in January and February when it was here and we didn't know it. If living normal but careful lives opens the floodgates, then it has to happen and run it's course. Absent an effective vaccine, there is no exit strategy for this trap that's been laid. Fearing imminent death from unmasked people at Kroger is no way I want to live life.

Drop the puck. I'll wear fang fingers and a goalie mask.

Nobody says we stay shut down for a year. NOBODY. Stop throwing that out there because it's just not true. Every state is going to slowly reopen. Andy Beshear has been as strict as any governor and we have an plan to reopen. But in person sporting events where people sit 3 inches from each other will not(or should not) be coming back until there is a vaccine no matter how many crazy people like you demand it.

 

[hockey diva]

I watched the game 3 overtime. Never should have let Fiala go.

 

[sparkle twin]

2017 Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4 vs Chicago is tonight.



Preds lead 3-0, can they get a most glorious and epic sweep?



Fox Sports TN, 7pm Central.
Replays at 11pm, 5am (Fri.), 2pm (Fri.)

Also available on the Fox Sports Go App. (times are the same as above)!




GDT: - WCQF - Game 4 - Chicago at Nashville - NSH SWEEPS!



Edit: today's replay is at 2pm, not noon!

 

[bdub24]

2017 Playoffs, Round 1, Game 4 vs Chicago is tonight.



Preds lead 3-0, can they get a most glorious and epic sweep?



Fox Sports TN, 7pm Central.
Replays at 11pm, 5am (Fri.), 12pm (Fri.)

Also available on the Fox Sports Go App. (times are the same as above)!




GDT: - WCQF - Game 4 - Chicago at Nashville - NSH SWEEPS!

Dang it! Wish I could watch this on in California

 

[sparkle twin]

Dang it! Wish I could watch this on in California

Can you not watch it on the app?

 

[sparkle twin]

I forgot about the actual series thread itself.

Series Thread - WCQF - Nashville wins 4-0 - SWEEP!!!



SWEEP!
SWEEP!
SWEEP!
SWEEP!
What a series! That was an incredible night!

 

[bdub24]

Can you not watch it on the app?

Ahhhhhhh! I didn't think of that. Dammit!

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

Nice article in the Athletic by Adam below. Put me down as someone who thought we should have protected Nealer. As we look back at seasons when we had a legit chance to win the Cup, 17-18 was one of those years. When you get as far as we did, it comes down to 1 or 2 games in the playoffs, and guys like Neal can be the difference whereas guys like Calle don't. Calle was the smarter play given 5 more years on his payroll-friendly contract, but we've got other guys who can play Calle's role. Neal had a sniper talent we needed more of, plus his physical presence. The Jets series wore us down. If Neal helps us win Game 7, that could have been the year. He scored 25 for Vegas that year and they almost did it. Plus, by cutting bait on him with a year left, it made the Neal-Horny trade that much worse.

What if the Predators had protected James Neal in the 2017 expansion draft?

But what if the Predators had taken the risk of retaining Neal instead of Jarnkrok, who, by the way, might not have even been the Golden Knights’ choice had he been exposed? (Colton Sissons, for example, was coming off a breakout performance as the Predators’ fill-in No. 1 center when Johansen got hurt.)

Based on the premise that Neal would have produced the same numbers with the Predators that he did with the Golden Knights during the 2017-18 season, his underlying metrics at five-on-five were not much better than Jarnkrok’s. (Neal’s 0.24 five-on-five goals per game would have tied for the Predators’ lead, though.)

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Nice article in the Athletic by Adam below. Put me down as someone who thought we should have protected Nealer. As we look back at seasons when we had a legit chance to win the Cup, 17-18 was one of those years. When you get as far as we did, it comes down to 1 or 2 games in the playoffs, and guys like Neal can be the difference whereas guys like Calle don't. Calle was the smarter play given 5 more years on his payroll-friendly contract, but we've got other guys who can play Calle's role. Neal had a sniper talent we needed more of, plus his physical presence. The Jets series wore us down. If Neal helps us win Game 7, that could have been the year. He scored 25 for Vegas that year and they almost did it. Plus, by cutting bait on him with a year left, it made the Neal-Horny trade that much worse.

What if the Predators had protected James Neal in the 2017 expansion draft?

By Adam Vingan May 8, 2020

17

The mere mention of it still irritates Predators fans three years later.
In June 2017, the pain of losing in the Stanley Cup final was still very fresh for the Predators, but they had to get back to work. Less than a week after the deciding game, protection lists for the upcoming Vegas expansion draft were due.

The Predators’ list was fairly easy to predict. Pekka Rinne had a no-movement clause. Their quartet of dynamic defensemen — Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm and P.K. Subban — was going nowhere. Neither were Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, who were in the beginning stages of becoming a dominant combination.

That left one spot for two forwards.

James Neal had just reached the 20-goal mark for the ninth consecutive season. He scored six goals in the playoffs, half of which came after he suffered a broken right hand at the start of the Western Conference finals.

The following active players have scored at least 20G in each of their first nine NHL seasons:
Jagr
Vanek
Ovechkin
Kane
Toews
Neal
— Adam Vingan (@AdamVingan) June 21, 2017​

Calle Jarnkrok had a career-high 31 points in the first year of a six-year, $12 million contract. He was 25 at the time, four years younger than Neal, who had one season left on his $30 million deal.

The Predators made the financially prudent decision by choosing Jarnkrok over Neal, who became an inaugural
“It came down to more of a business decision,” Predators general manager David Poile said at the conclusion of the expansion draft. “We signed Jarnkrok to a six-year deal last year. I think he’s an improving player, plays multiple positions. I think his career is clearly on the upside.

ames had a much bigger contract, and he only had one year left before he was an unrestricted free agent. We didn’t have any negotiations, but there (were) no guarantees that we would be able to keep him. It really was a business decision. It was as simple as that.”

Record-wise, the Predators were fine without Neal. They won the Presidents’ Trophy the following season with 117 points and were seventh in the NHL in scoring.

Jarnkrok was on pace for around 40 points when he suffered an injury that sidelined him for the final few weeks of the regular season. Neal had 25 goals and 44 points for the Golden Knights and participated in the Stanley Cup final again.

“You just put your heart and your soul and everything you had into a team and tried to do everything you could to try to win a Stanley Cup,” Neal said before returning to Nashville with the Golden Knights in December 2017. “And a couple of weeks later, a week later, you’re on a new team.”

But what if the Predators had taken the risk of retaining Neal instead of Jarnkrok, who, by the way, might not have even been the Golden Knights’ choice had he been exposed? (Colton Sissons, for example, was coming off a breakout performance as the Predators’ fill-in No. 1 center when Johansen got hurt.)

Based on the premise that Neal would have produced the same numbers with the Predators that he did with the Golden Knights during the 2017-18 season, his underlying metrics at five-on-five were not much better than Jarnkrok’s. (Neal’s 0.24 five-on-five goals per game would have tied for the Predators’ lead, though.)

Had both players appeared in 82 games that season, the Predators would have added around five goals to their total at five-on-five if they had kept Neal instead of Jarnkrok.

James Neal vs. Calle Jarnkrok in 2017-18

Goals	0.24	0.18
Expected Goals	0.21	0.14
Points	0.41	0.38
Slot Shots	1.24	0.79
Inner Slot Shots	0.41	0.32
Time On Ice (EV)	14:42	12:56

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Other than his knack for scoring goals, Neal is a Grade-A pain in the ass who has never hesitated to push the envelope physically. In the second round of the 2018 playoffs, the Predators were bullied by the beefier Winnipeg Jets and their cast of antagonists, headlined by Dustin Byfuglien.

Would Neal have evened the odds, or at least closed the gap in that department? At one point in the series, Peter Laviolette replaced Kevin Fiala with Scott Hartnell, sacrificing skill for bulk. Neal would have provided both.
It would be too simplistic to assume that Neal alone would have altered the outcome of the series. He would not have stopped Rinne from imploding in the first period of Game 7. But it is easy to imagine Neal making a difference. (Maybe he would have cracked his stick across Connor Hellebuyck’s mask?)

In all likelihood, the Predators would not have re-signed Neal in the summer of 2018, when he was approaching 31. Ellis and Juuse Saros were the team’s priorities. Jarnkrok has continued to be a steady and versatile contributor.
But it is interesting to wonder what kind of effect a hungry Neal in a contract year might have had on the best team in franchise history.

Well just keeping Horny in the first place certainly would have helped us... on both sides of the ledger...

And unlike most things, you can't even trace this back much further in the 20/20 hindsighting department... couldn't have picked somebody better than Horny in the draft, since he was the last pick!

 

[sparkle twin]

2017 Playoffs Round 2, Game 1 vs St. Louis is tonight.


Fox Sports TN 7pm (Central)
Replays at 11pm, 5am (Wed), 12pm (Wed).

**Also available on the FSGo App**


Series Thread
GDT: - Series Thread - WCSF - (C3) St. Louis Blues 2 vs (WC2) Nashville Predators 4


Game 1 GDT
Post-Game Talk: - WIN!! - WCSF - Game 1 - Nashville at St. Louis - NSH leads 1-0

 

[drwpreds]

2017 Playoffs Round 2, Game 1 vs St. Louis is tonight.

So much fun watching these games. Man Subban was an absolute beast in this game

But that Fiala injury though- just awful