Observations XX

[Scoresberg]

Being bored while I'm smoking some ribs, I came across a thread about duos that excite me which got me thinking, if all things stay the same with this team moving in to camp, who would are top 9 AND which line combos would you like to se moving forward? Reason this intrigues me is I think we need some improvement from the Turris line come the playoffs and while they are pretty good during the regular season, was the playoffs a bad few weeks or is that the way they'll play moving forward in the playoffs? Also, make two sets of our top 9, one with and without Tolvanen.

Arvidsson-Johansen-Tolvanen
Fiala-Turris-Forsberg
Smith-Bonino-Hartman

OR

Arvidson-Johansen-Smith
Fiala-Turris-Hartman
Forsberg-Bonino-Jarnkrok

Not sure I like any of these to be honest but I had to start somewhere. Honestly, I'd love to see what Fiala and Forsberg could do as a combo.

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Fiala - Turris - Hartman
Tolvanen - Bonino - Smith
Jarnkrok - Sissons - Watson
Brickley

Tolvanen gets sheltered minutes in a 3rd line role and gets to play with two defensively responsible vets. I'd like to see us try to find Hartman's 20 goals again rather than just start using him in a bottom-6 grinder role. I don't think you touch JOFA they've proven that they need to be together.

OR

Forsberg - Johansen - Arvidsson
Fiala - Turris - Hartman
Jarnkrok - Bonino - Smith
Brickley - Sissons - Watson

 

[King Weber]

Anybody used this Player Similarity Tool yet? Looks pretty useful. Pick a player and you see 5 players who are most like him offensively and defensively.

Tableau Public

Lets take Josi as an example:

His Top 5 most similar players offensively;
Klingberg Barrie Parayko Pietrangelo Gardiner

and defensively:
Scandella, Fowler, Hedman, Dumoulin, Ellis


If you wanna know how he calculated these things, press the "Data Info + Methodology" button.

 

[GoldOnGold]

That's an interesting tool.

Forsberg's most similar offensively:
Pastrnak, Marchessault, Ehlers, Scheifele, Schwartz

Forsberg's most similar defensively:
Pastrnak, Drouin, Hall, Huberdeau, Kuznetsov

Arvidsson's similar offensively:
W. Karlsson, Point, Sheary, Toffoli, Landeskog

Arvidsson's most similar defensively:
Johansen, Stepan, Seguin, Pearson, Silfverberg

 

[PredsV82]

That sit said Ryan Ellis was the second best defensive comparable to Shea Weber.

I like Ellis but I think that may be slightly inaccurate

 

[King Weber]

That sit said Ryan Ellis was the second best defensive comparable to Shea Weber.

I like Ellis but I think that may be slightly inaccurate

both have missed considerable amount of games the past two seasons combined so it probably messes things up a bit.

 

[101st_fan]

Dumba's deal is going to make signing Ellis at a reasonable rate a lot more difficult. 5 yrs, $30 mil total for Dumba.

 

[ILikeItILoveIt]

A sobered look at Ellis's stats doesn't match our perception of his worth to the Preds. His best full season was 16-17 with 16 goals and 22 assists, 38 points. His previous full season's average is 11 goals and 22 assists, 33 assists. He's had 2 seasons where he hasn't stayed on the ice, missing 24 games in 14-15 and 38 games in 17-18. The only statistical way you get to a big money, long term contract is to prorate last season over 82 games. That's an approach but when a player has never done it at that level for a full season, it's sketchy to do the math and proclaim him to be that player.

I love Ellis. Our record with him versus without him last year was huge, but he didn't show up in the playoffs last year (0-5 5 points in 13 games) and his all-time playoff stats are middle of the road (5-22 27 points in 58 games).

I wonder if the return we could get on him if we traded him now wouldn't be worth more than his worth to us if we have to pay 6-to-7 mil a year for 6 years to keep him. The problem with trading him is, it would violate what seems to have been Poile long term to plan to keep the Big-4 together. If he planned to move Ellis instead of resign him, then trading Samuel Girard was a big time mistake. Girard is a mini-me Ellis with many more years before he hits big money.

I'm really torn on this. The longer it goes without resolution, the more Suter Flashbacks I experience. We can not let it ride, have him play next year, and then not sign him. There's not much out there on the market right now. Ryan would be the hottest Prom date available. Maybe we can get a high pick and a Top 6 prospect or a Top 6 winger today with one year left on his contract like Ryan. Or just sign him and hope Poile can wave the timepiece back-and-forth in front of his face and hypnotize him into signing a a cheaper contract.

 

[Mortiest Morty]

Dumba's deal is going to make signing Ellis at a reasonable rate a lot more difficult. 5 yrs, $30 mil total for Dumba.

Dumba just had a fully healthy 50 point season, his point totals have increased every single year in the league and he's only 23. Ells has a career high of 38 points and he turns 28 in January. Ellis is a bit better defensively, but Dumba is also probably getting some of that money based on potential and the fact that he has improved every season. Yes, Ellis had a great 40ish games after coming off of a pretty serious injury, but then he followed it up with an abysmal playoff performance.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Dumba just had a fully healthy 50 point season, his point totals have increased every single year in the league and he's only 23. Ells has a career high of 38 points and he turns 28 in January. Ellis is a bit better defensively, but Dumba is also probably getting some of that money based on potential and the fact that he has improved every season. Yes, Ellis had a great 40ish games after coming off of a pretty serious injury, but then he followed it up with an abysmal playoff performance.

Yeah, to me the Dumba contract should set a cap on what Ellis can ask for. He's not better than Dumba, and certainly does not have any more upside relative to Dumba. Give Ellis the Dumba contract, and I'll think it's "fair"-ish... I'd rather have Dumba as an asset overall on that contract than Ellis on the same contract.

 

[BigFatCat999]

I've always had a theory, that players that are playing for a contract will almost always play their best. Look at Vegas, they had a bunch of guys who were soon to be FAs. The players I expect to step up this year:

Fiala
Sissons
Hartman
Ellis
Bitetto
Rinne

If the rest of the team can play to their potential and these guys step up, this could be a great year.

 

[jumb0]

I've always had a theory, that players that are playing for a contract will almost always play their best.

This is true across every professional sport.

 

[BigFatCat999]

This is true across every professional sport.

But imagine a team full of them

 

[Softball99]

Vegas would be that answer

 

[FossilFndr]

Don't think it deserves a new thread but how do you think the new chest pad regulations will affect each of our goalies?

 

[Legionnaire11]

Don't think it deserves a new thread but how do you think the new chest pad regulations will affect each of our goalies?

It's an interesting question, in theory I'd think it would hurt the shorter goalies more. So Saros definitely comes to mind. But I also don't think he had shoulder pads that were exceptionally oversized to begin with, so hopefully it doesn't affect him much at all.

 

[Nharris31]

Wild fan coming in peace Where do you see the Wild finishing in the division 1-7? Just need a number

 

[hockey diva]

4th

 

[PredsV82]

I wish for 7th, I'm expecting 5th. Dallas and Colorado both should be better than last year. Not sure the Wild have done anything to get better. Of course if Dubnyk is amazing it could be as high as 3.

 

[jumb0]

I'll say 4th as well. Anywhere between 3rd-7th wouldn't surprise me though.

 

[Aardvarksson]

Wild are very difficult to predict. You know they won't be complete poo with Boudreau coaching and Dubnyk in net, so i say they'll secure 4th and a wildcard spot this year.

 

[PredsV82]

I really hate the trade forum. There are two threads suggesting Calgary is going after Saros, which we all know is silly barring an extreme overpayment.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I really hate the trade forum. There are two threads suggesting Calgary is going after Saros, which we all know is silly barring an extreme overpayment.

We should probably get used to it. Every fanbase that perceives a need for a future starter is going to turn to Saros now with that contract in place. Until the Rinne/Saros inversion is complete, anyway.

 

[triggrman]

I'm starting to hate idiot ass CBJ fans again....

 

[PredsV82]

I'm starting to hate idiot ass CBJ fans again....

Specifics?

 

[adsfan]

I'm starting to hate idiot ass CBJ fans again....

All 38 of them?