Confirmed Trade: [NYR/OTT] Rangers trade Vlad Namestnikov ($750k retained) to Senators for Nick Ebert, '21 4th

[TGWL]

It's almost worthless due to the fact that the chances of drafting an NHL caliber player, let alone a superstar, is very low. Not saying it doesn't happen, but it's rare.

Johnny Gaudreau

You're right, it's rare, but it's still a shot we rather have. Keeping Namesnikov on our current team was going to provide him with 3rd/4th line minutes and chances are he wasn't putting up more than 30 points, so even at trade deadline I'm not sure what realistic expectations would be.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Well Namestnikov and JT Miller are both gone from their teams. I still say probably TB wins that one since they gained a 1st rounder for Miller.

 

[Halla]

Well Namestnikov and JT Miller are both gone from their teams. I still say probably TB wins that one since they gained a 1st rounder for Miller.

and vancouvers 1st rd pick at that....the lightning handily won both miller trades lol

 

[Eisen]

Really? Lol the king was a 7th round pick. Tom Brady was a 6th round pick. There are hidden gems all over drafts. It's a shot in the dark but no pick iin a draft is worthless

That's why I said almost. Good chance a fourth doesn't get you a lot.

 

[Eisen]

Ryan Callahan was a 4th round pick

The pick traded for Mark Messier when was traded to the Sharks. View attachment 262055

Chances of getting a regular player in the fourth are very low. Certainly worth trading a fourth for an established player.

 

[CauZuki]

Chances of getting a regular player in the fourth are very low. Certainly worth trading a fourth for an established player.

I wouldn't bother as many have issues comprehending that just because something can happen , doesn't make it a good idea to plan around. Probability matters , most elite players come from the 1st round , it doesn't mean they don't exist beyond the first 31 picks...

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Nothing about this makes sense, the timing, return, etc..

 

[BoltSTH]

I wouldn't bother as many have issues comprehending that just because something can happen , doesn't make it a good idea to plan around. Probability matters , most elite players come from the 1st round , it doesn't mean they don't exist beyond the first 31 picks...

Not true for TB. Vasilevskiy is the only 1st round pick on the Bolts since Hedman on 2009.
Connolly, Namestnikov, Koekkoek, Drouin, Deangelo, Howden all traded and too soon for Foote brothers to make it to the NHL
Bolts do a lot better in letter rounds or undrafted players. Kucherov was bottom of the 2nd, Point 3rd, Palat bottom of the 7th, and Johnson (undrafted).

 

[The Macho King]

Namestnikov is one of the lowest IQ players I've ever seen. He just didn't know what was going on during a game. Decent skill level, but a mouth breather.

 

[CauZuki]

Not true for TB. Vasilevskiy is the only 1st round pick on the Bolts since Hedman on 2009.
Connolly, Namestnikov, Koekkoek, Drouin, Deangelo, Howden all traded and too soon for Foote brothers to make it to the NHL
Bolts do a lot better in letter rounds or undrafted players. Kucherov was bottom of the 2nd, Point 3rd, Palat bottom of the 7th, and Johnson (undrafted).

So once again the minority case (one that is nearly impossible to replicate) is what others should be pointing to as a model of predictable success? Everybody trade your 1st round picks , you can find a 100+ point player in the 2nd round! What a simple (and inaccurate) way of looking at things , especially when you used J.T Miller (1st round pick) to get McDonaugh(another 1st round pick) , Sergachev is a top 10 pick (which you used your 3rd overall selection to acquire) , Stamkos/Hedman are both 1st overall picks...I don't understand what point you are trying to make? Good job Tampa is much better at finding gems , still doesn't change the fact that the 1st rounder will turn into an NHLer a lot more times than the other rounds (there are exceptions to nearly any rule , pointing that out is meaningless).

 

[LTIR Trickery]

So once again the minority case (one that is nearly impossible to replicate) is what others should be pointing to as a model of predictable success? Everybody trade your 1st round picks , you can find a 100+ point player in the 2nd round! What a simple (and inaccurate) way of looking at things , especially when you used J.T Miller (1st round pick) to get McDonaugh(another 1st round pick) , Sergachev is a top 10 pick (which you used your 3rd overall selection to acquire) , Stamkos/Hedman are both 1st overall picks...I don't understand what point you are trying to make? Good job Tampa is much better at finding gems , still doesn't change the fact that the 1st rounder will turn into an NHLer a lot more times than the other rounds (there are exceptions to nearly any rule , pointing that out is meaningless).

IIRC when doing internal research we actually found that most players that were in the top 20% of players based on production came from picks 20-45ish, don't remember the exact. So... you're both right, and wrong.

 

[CauZuki]

IIRC when doing internal research we actually found that most players that were in the top 20% of players based on production came from picks 20-45ish, don't remember the exact. So... you're both right, and wrong.

Nothing you've provided goes agaisnt what I've said...Especially since you didn't elaborate which part of the 20 to 45 produced more of the 20% and even if I take that statistic at face value it still doesn't disprove that most of the NHL talent comes from the 1st round...

 

[LTIR Trickery]

Nothing you've provided goes agaisnt what I've said...Especially since you didn't elaborate which part of the 20 to 45 produced more of the 20% and even if I take that statistic at face value it still doesn't disprove that most of the NHL talent comes from the 1st round...

"Nothing goes against what I said"
Players in the top 20 percentile came from picks positioned at the end of the first round and the front half of the second... but i'm afraid i'm no longer with the club and don't have access to those stats anymore.

What i'm getting at is you're arguing a very arbitrary point of "first round" when you should really look at it as picks 1-90, 91-120, etc.

 

[SpezDispenser]

It's funny, I dont dislike the trade, the value is there, but I just dont get it from Ottawa's POV.

 

[Vitto79]

wow what a garbage return, don't like this deal, Namestnikov was playing well don't really get why they were that desperate to trade him.

4th line demotion well?

He had no future in NY ... now that he’s gone they have space to do something else or just play the kids

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

4th line demotion well?

He had no future in NY ... now that he’s gone they have space to do something else or just play the kids

I am not saying we should not have traded him, but that return we got was brutal. It's as if after Zibanejad scored a hat trick against them they called up crying demanding for some compensation for getting screwed in that trade.

 

[supsens]

"Nothing goes against what I said"
Players in the top 20 percentile came from picks positioned at the end of the first round and the front half of the second... but i'm afraid i'm no longer with the club and don't have access to those stats anymore.

What i'm getting at is you're arguing a very arbitrary point of "first round" when you should really look at it as picks 1-90, 91-120, etc.

But is there more players from1-20 then 21 - 41? Because the numbers you show seem like a random start place wheer a few players would skew the stats for a good ten years.
The gap of production from 1-10 vrs 31-41 is probably huge
Just like the gap of 1-31 vrs 32-63 is probably larger
There is zero reason to give props to the 90th pick just because the first 40 guys picked were good.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Ebert give this trade a thumbs up?

 

[Altimus]

if Vlad does well and produces, he could end up on a contender come tdl, or he has some offers next off season. Or its just proof he belongs in the khl. Its just sad hes a better option then what we have in the minors. another teams 4th liner.

 

[Langdon Alger]

Namestnikov is one of the lowest IQ players I've ever seen. He just didn't know what was going on during a game. Decent skill level, but a mouth breather.

Mouth breather? Are we in a movie from the 80’s?

 

[I am Canadian]

Mouth breather? Are we in a movie from the 80’s?

The saying has become popular with the success of the show "Stranger Things" which happens to take place during the 80's

 

[pld459666]

I will concede that a 4th rounder is a long shot to be anything special.

The issue isn't what the Rangers got back in assets.

The biggest get here is freeing up over 3 million in cap space by moving a player that was not in their short or long term plans.

What that player was initially acquired for is irrelevant today.

 

[TGWL]

I am not saying we should not have traded him, but that return we got was brutal. It's as if after Zibanejad scored a hat trick against them they called up crying demanding for some compensation for getting screwed in that trade.

If the compensation was Namestnikov, they need to work on their puppy eyes and do better. Namestnikov looked engaged in the first 2 games but were you expecting him to start dominating games and putting up points with us on the 3rd or 4th line, upping his trade value? There's no point in having him in a bottom role. If this was the off-season I would have done this trade for a 6th just to gain some cap space, he's that irrelevant to us. Hopefully he has a bigger role with the Sens and gets himself a decent contract.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

It's funny, I dont dislike the trade, the value is there, but I just dont get it from Ottawa's POV.

Ottawa is going to apply a new coat of paint, do some landscaping, and perhaps remodel a bath room for a flip at TDL. And maybe sucking a bit less in the process.

 

[SpezDispenser]

if Vlad does well and produces, he could end up on a contender come tdl, or he has some offers next off season. Or its just proof he belongs in the khl. Its just sad hes a better option then what we have in the minors. another teams 4th liner.

That's not entirely accurate. We don't know how Batherson or Brown or Norris or Davidsson or Paul or Formenton etc. would do with an extended look in the NHL. He's a better option because Ottawa is in no rush to promote their youth (I assume).