Speculation: Nylander XII - The Saga Continues (ALL NYLANDER DISCUSSION HERE)

[Boutette]

Why is Marleau waiving his NMC to go play for some basement team rather than staying with Toronto and trying to win a cup?

Because he'll get paid all the money the leafs promised him, and likely be able to return with his family a year early to San Jose for a chance to win a cup there and retire a Shark.

 

[socko]

Yes I would easily give up that for Nylander. You can pretty much eliminate the first rd pick. Because in order to get a player like Nylander you would have had to use a first rd pick anyways. Toronto themselves is losing a high pick so the first rd selection they get as compensation cancels itself out. So in reality a team is giving up an extra 2nd and third rd pick. Not bad for a guarantee.

You're giving up cheap ELC assets for an overpaid asset. And you really don't know if Willy can score 60 points without Auston Matthews. So there is no guarantee either.

 

[Liferleafer]

Shhhhhhhh...let’em run with it some more. It’s fun to watch in a sad three legged dog going down the stairs kind of way.

You make it sound like we're chomping at the bit and just hoping to trade Nylander to Carolina.....we aren't.

 

[typicalsavage]

Why is Marleau waiving his NMC to go play for some basement team rather than staying with Toronto and trying to win a cup?

Did you even read what I said? The plan is to trade him then he gets bought out. I legit said at the end Marleau can sign back in Toronto for 1.5m or whatever and end up taking ore money than he was originally owed. Jesus Christ I don't think people read on here.

 

[Leaf Fans]

1. and 2. True & true.

To use an analogy, what is being reported is often like the tip of an iceberg. What's happening is often beneath the surface.

I agree with that, but it becomes nonsensical when we speculate on what has not been said," negotiated or whatever.

 

[MinJaBen]

You make it sound like we're chomping at the bit and just hoping to trade Nylander to Carolina.....we aren't.

Nah, I’m talking about all the reasonable proposals that “all in” is generating such as Pesce, Turbo, and a 1st.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

Did you even read what I said? The plan is to trade him then he gets bought out.

NMC stands for No Movement Clause

 

[NoName]

leafs insta match any offer that only gives them a 1st,2nd,3rd. they match any 5 year deal 8.1 and under

willy is looking for long term, 6-8 years though so i doubt he agrees to 5 just to screw the leafs out of the best possible compensation

to sum up there is 0 chance the leafs let nylander walk for 7.5-8 and take only a last 1st,2nd,3rd. rather have a guy overpaid by a mil then take that pittance

Leafs matching $8.1 million for 5 years would be incredibly dumb. That is offering Nylander way more then his comparable in terms of AAV and not even buying UFA years as well. Nylander wants a 7 to 8 year contract... at a high AAV. Teams pay more to buy UFA years and Nylander wants the Leafs to offer him more in exchange for keeping him through most of his prime. If a team was willing to offer him the same over-market value AAV and walk him all the way to UFA status as early as possible he would be mad not to take such an excellent deal (from a player's perspective).

 

[Drew311]

I guarantee you the Leafs would match 5x7.5 in a nanosecond. They'd be pissed, but that won't get it done.

Especially since the cap hit would be closer to 7M in years 2 - 5.

 

[NoName]

Yes I would easily give up that for Nylander. You can pretty much eliminate the first rd pick. Because in order to get a player like Nylander you would have had to use a first rd pick anyways. Toronto themselves is losing a high pick so the first rd selection they get as compensation cancels itself out. So in reality a team is giving up an extra 2nd and third rd pick. Not bad for a guarantee.

That reasoning is rather convoluted, but sure. If a GM feels similar to you he can probably get William Nylander on an offer-sheet.

 

[NoName]

I guarantee you the Leafs would match 5x7.5 in a nanosecond. They'd be pissed, but that won't get it done.

$7.5 million for Nylander is about 1 million above market value and they are buying minimal UFA years as well. With Marner and Matthews coming up next off-season this is an offer I don't think is a guaranteed match, especially as a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is far from a crappy return, particularly if that 1st ends up being reasonably high.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

$7.5 million for Nylander is about 1 million above market value and they are buying minimal UFA years as well. With Marner and Matthews coming up next off-season this is an offer I don't think is a guaranteed match, especially as a 1st, 2nd and 3rd is far from a crappy return, particularly if that 1st ends up being reasonably high.

I disagree with this. It may be a million too high but in two years it will be average and a bargain by year four of five. If Nylander stays 20-40 he's pretty much worth the contract...and that's if you think he's reached his ceiling, which I think no one believes is the case.

Even if you give up a 10th overall, 41st overall and 72nd overall (or whatever) you're winning the trade short-term and most likely long-term.

I'd match it if it was offered. Those picks do nothing for the Leafs now and probably long-term, imo.

 

[mouser]

Yeah, my bet is $5million x 4 years. Leafs aren’t going to want shorter term and to avoid having the same fight in the future, but this time with Nylander being able to get an arbitrator and thus have substantially more leverage. Nylander will get his UFA payday in his absolute prime here, and if he gets traded by Toronto anyway (which is his big fear apparently), he at least knows he won’t be stuck with a team not of his choosing for very long. This isn’t the deal either side ideally wants (particularly Nylander) but I think it is what will ultimately happen before December 1 because it should be tolerable for all sides.

I could see 3 x $4.75m-$5m. I think if you go four years there should be a healthy bump in AAV. While Nylander would still be a RFA after four years, at this point we’re skipping the idea of “take a bridge contract to show you deserve a bigger long term deal”. Four years turns into more of a “let’s lock you up for most of your RFA years” in my opinion.

 

[indigobuffalo]

I've been saying bridge deal for quite some time now. Seems to be the middle ground and path of least resistance. I'd think the Nylander camp want to maintain some leverage in the future to negotiate better contracts. I think we all know what the Leafs would like i.e., long term deal and lowest $s.

I dunno. Both sides have maintained that they want long-term deals. Seems odd to compromise in that way. The bridge-deal speculation is just that, speculation by the media and fans.

Not to mention that on a bridge deal Nylander is getting hosed for the next two years based on what he’s lost so far this year and not making very much on a bridge deal, which would be probably in the $4.5 to $5.25M range.

 

[57special]

Yep, except given what he is asking option 1 is really more likely to be “Nylander doesn’t sign a reasonable offersheet so the Leafs don’t have to match in the first place”. Reports are Nylander wants Draisaitl money, which means $8 million, well anove his market value. If a more resaonable Pasternak deal was all it would take to sign Nylander then this would long since be done. Any team willing to offer him the contract he is actually willing to sign is definitely falling more into thw realm of option 2 or 3. On that note, I don’t think any team eould ever give up three extra 1st rounders just to offer Nylander a longer term deal and eat up some UFA years. The only offersheet I think has any sort of possibility of happening is option 3, which is likely $7.5-8 million x 5 years; I could definitely see Toronto balking to match that and Nylander signing that.


So I ask fans of other teams here: If you were your teams GM, would you be willing to offer Nylander $7.5 million x 5 years and send Toronto a 1st, 2nd and a 3rd as compensation?

For a playoff team(later 1st round pick), especially a team that is near the top of the standings(picking 25-31), those picks would represent less of a loss than a lot of the players that have been proposed going other way in a deal with TOR. Offer sheet makes more sense. For TOR, a late 1st, 2nd, and 3rd wouldn't be bad, but would have no certainty of having an NHL player, let alone an impact NHL player, and even there said player might not arrive for another 3-5 years, which i'm guessing would not be cool with TOR fans.

I think an offer sheet makes a ton of sense for teams like NSH, VGK, SJS, MN, WAS, MTL( assuming their present play isn't a mirage...getting Nylander would increase their odds of having a good season), etc..
The big challenge for most teams is clearing cap space, as most contending teams are at or near the cap.

I would be fine with my team, the Wild, tendering an offer sheet, but they simply don't have the cap room. The payback when Granlund's contract comes around would be a bitch, also.

 

[mouser]

If you want to get rid of Marleau, trade him to a team needing to get to the cap floor and have them. buy him out. Marleau is on a 35+ contract but gets paid 4.25m with only 1.25m of it being paid in salary. A team like Arizona can pay 3.8m and take a 6.25m cap hit just for this year or you can trade him after July first if Arizona can buy him out during the 2nd buyout period but I don't know how that works. But if the second option is possible Arizona takes a 6.25m cap hit for only .833m I believe. With how Marleau's contract is structured I assumed this was the plan all along. The Leafs could just re-sign Marleau for like 1.5m like the Caps did with Orpik.

Why would Arizona buy him out? Surely Marleau playing with the Coyotes for $1.25m is much better for Arizona then paying $833k to buy him out plus paying $1m or more for the player to replace his roster slot on the team?

 

[indigobuffalo]

Why would Arizona buy him out? Surely Marleau playing with the Coyotes for $1.25m is much better for Arizona then paying $833k to buy him out plus paying $1m or more for the player to replace his roster slot on the team?

Backroom deals? I guess it’s discretionary for Marleau, if he decides he doesn’t want to play next year then the Leafs can go this route.

Otherwise he holds the power.

And by god hopefully Toronto learned a lesson about how to handle future HHOF players in their final season.

 

[Newsworthy]

That reasoning is rather convoluted, but sure. If a GM feels similar to you he can probably get William Nylander on an offer-sheet.

Free agents are getting overpaid regardless. William is probably worth $6 million now but on the open market he would get $7 million easily from a team with cap room. A lot has to do with age and skill. He may also be a Center. What I'm saying is the return the Leafs get by allowing an offer sheet won't be worth it. They would be better off trying to trade him. I doubt a team with a top five overall pick is making him an offer. More like a team outside the top 15 which lowers the first rd value. Since he hasn't asked to be traded yet the best course of action is for Dubas to continue negotiations. Nylander is losing money and doesn't have leverage but at the same time he's hurting the team. The longer this drags on the worse it is in terms of future dealings with the player.
I'm not sure whether Leaf fans are siding with player or owner.

 

[mouser]

Leafs matching $8.1 million for 5 years would be incredibly dumb. That is offering Nylander way more then his comparable in terms of AAV and not even buying UFA years as well. Nylander wants a 7 to 8 year contract... at a high AAV. Teams pay more to buy UFA years and Nylander wants the Leafs to offer him more in exchange for keeping him through most of his prime. If a team was willing to offer him the same over-market value AAV and walk him all the way to UFA status as early as possible he would be mad not to take such an excellent deal (from a player's perspective).

I don’t expect it to happen, but if somehow Nylander and another team did agree on a 5x $8.1m offer sheet then Toronto has to match. Nylander overpaid at $8.1m is still worth more then a 1st/2nd/3rd. Worst case the Leafs should be able to move him somewhere in the future (after the 1 year matching limit) for a better value then those picks.

 

[mouser]

Especially since the cap hit would be closer to 7M in years 2 - 5.

Nah, any offer sheet would min the salary and max year 1 signing bonus. Making the year 2-5 cap hit very close to $7.5m.

 

[Setec Astronomy]

According to CapFriendly the Leafs are sitting on 11M cap space at the moment. Does matching mess up things for next year? Absolutely, but as it stands this very minute, the Leafs hold all the cards.

This year is not the issue. If it were, he’d be signed by now. The reason Nylander hasn’t signed is because the Leafs can’t give him the money he’s looking for and be able to fit in Matthews and Marner next year. It’s very hard to have $30 million plus in cap space in three players, which is what the Leafs are looking at with Tavares, Matthews and Marner. It’s pretty much impossible to have half your available cap space in four players, which is what they’re looking at if they sign Nylander for around $7.5 million AAV. And then they may need to pay for some defensemen.

 

[DougGilmour93]

I read somewhere that Minnesota was one of the teams interested in Nylander. I also heard they might be offering up a package of Greenway and Brodin.
What do both fanbases think of a deal like that?

 

[The List Of Jericho]

With the Leafs money muscle, it wouldn’t be smart for any team to offer sheet Nylander. The team would catch the clap back eventually

 

[Bazeek]

I read somewhere that Minnesota was one of the teams interested in Nylander. I also heard they might be offering up a package of Greenway and Brodin.
What do both fanbases think of a deal like that?

If Nylander is really set on getting $8m I'd hope Minnesota isn't offering anything.

 

[Do Make Say Think]

I surprised he remains un-signed!

 

[TheDoldrums]

We need to get Willy and Lewis Gross in an Uber together.