Speculation: Nylander VII

[DanM]

HF Boards reacts day to day. If the Leafs were playing Boston tonight instead of the Wings. The need for Nylander will be more present. So we may be in for more the Leafs do not need Nylander after tonight, since the Wings are off to a rough start. But the season is long, and a team cannot rely on only their Center group scoring 80% of a team's goals. Wingers need to supply scoring for sustained success.

Agreed.

It is early in the season, but it is a long one, and wingers have to contribute throughout the schedule. I do think our wingers will catch up, but I really dislike when people say "we don't need Willie" because we do. You can't just get rid of a top line winger, and think you won't feel that loss. It pushes the whole lineup down into the best spots.

Oh HFBoards has a different opinion every 3.5 seconds lol

 

[Critical13]

Petry+Poehling+1st seems like the kind of overpayment I would be giddy about.

If it's a 2nd, I don't see the point.

 

[Just Rude]

I have to agree with this.

Our wingers will also normalize and score more, but Willie is needed for sure.

Meh. He is needed in the sense he will add to an already potent offense and will probably put up great numbers with AM34 this year. Don't get me wrong, Willie will be a welcome addition back to the fold, but a top-4, ideally top-2, RHD is more of a "need", IMHO.

 

[Boxscore]

Tavares is the 2nd highest cap hit, because he was the best open market UFA in a decade, right after a major cap increase. UFAs from the current year usually are some of the higher paid players during that year. As the cap rises and the contracts of elite players come up, especially UFAs, we will see his contract drop in ranking pretty fast.

He took at least 14 million less to play in Toronto, after taking less 6 years ago to play in New York.

Tavares is also a center and an open market UFA, as opposed to Kucherov, a winger and an RFA.

Again, Tavares gave up more money signing his contract than any of Matthews, Marner or Nylander will signing theirs, even if they sign at a discount. He also took a discount for a horrible team after his ELC.

Also again, Tavares was an open market UFA on his 3rd contract, who had shown consistency at an elite level for years. Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are all RFAs with no rights and more risk, coming up on their post-ELC contract.

For one, Kucherov was going to be a UFA next summer. He gave up his UFA status to sign long-term in Tampa. He was in the same situation Tavares was in last year and decided to re-sign at a discount.

And, what you say above is all true. Nobody is saying "Tavares didn't deserve the money", or at least I'm not. There are many players in the league who "deserve" more than what they're making... and there are some who deserve less. That's the business.

What people keep missing is this... and it's simple...

There's a hard cap in the NHL. Regardless of what players deserve, or even what teams are willing to spend, there is only so much a team can spend. It's up to the players individually to decide how much of that pie they are willing to accept in order to help their organizations ice a competitive team for the long haul. Period. It's cut and dry.

Are Stamkos, Hedman and Kucherov all worth more than they accepted? Of course. Did they all take less so Tampa could keep their team mostly in tact? Of course.

This has nothing to do with how much "Tavares is worth" - it has everything to do with how much cap hit Tavares was willing to command from the Leafs to play in Toronto. And he felt alright with being the 2nd largest cap hit in the NHL. No matter how you slice it, this prohibits the Leafs from signing their 3 young players to contracts that make both parties happy. We're seeing that now with Nylander.

My issue with the Tavares contract has never been that the Leafs signed him - I think it's amazing they did - it's that it set the precedent that the Leafs were willing to pay top dollar for an outsider. Once you do that, it's nearly impossible to ask your inner core to give discounts. It's just not fair.

But, let's say Tavares signed for a 9 or 9.5 mil cap hit. Then, the Leafs have leverage to say to Nylander, Marner and Matthews, "look, even Tavares is willing to give us cap flexibility so we can keep you all, can you work with us?" Lead by example.

But the Leafs can't guilt the kids into "settling" when they just proved they are willing to give a UFA the second largest cap hit in the NHL, then cry that they can't sign them because of the cap.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For the record, Leaf centers have scored 65% of their team's goals, not 80% as has been suggested.

Also for the record, Leaf centers are primarily shooters/goal-scorers, and it includes the best goal-scoring center in the league. They will score a higher percentage of goals than most team's centers.

Also for the record, it has been 4 games, and certain posters are talking about scoring trends.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Would love the Habs to grab him so we can shift domi to wing.

Petry + Poeling + 2019 2nd

Domi - Nylander - Gallagher
Drouin - kotka- Armia
Lehks - danault - Byron

Trading a top 3D, an A center prospect and a possible high 2nd round pick for a soft winger? hell no

And Nylander is not a center.

 

[DanM]

Meh. He is needed in the sense he will add to an already potent offense and will probably put up great numbers with AM34 this year. Don't get me wrong, Willie will be a welcome addition back to the fold, but a top-4, ideally top-2, RHD is more of a "need", IMHO.

True. A true number 1 or 2 RHD would be a massive upgrade, but they are never available. I say we wait for our prospects, who I like, and just keep adding to an offence that will murder other teams.

But you are right though,top RHD is biggest need

 

[waitin425]

Your giving up a 1st for Nylander.

You are absolutely right. Poehling was a first rounder who in every way has lived up to that billing so far. He will be top 15 maybe 10 from
that draft in about a years time if he isn’t already.

 

[robertocarlos]

Ehler for Nylander? Jets need a possible center.

 

[Boxscore]

True. A true number 1 or 2 RHD would be a massive upgrade, but they are never available. I say we wait for our prospects, who I like, and just keep adding to an offence that will murder other teams.

But you are right though,top RHD is biggest need

Dan,

The problem is, getting #1 or #2 Dmen are nearly impossible. I don't see Nylander commanding a young equivalent on D, simply due to supply and demand - there are none to go around. Especially when you're trying to narrow the field even further, looking for strictly a RH defenseman.

Logically, who is out there? Justin Faulk? That could be the route the Leafs go if this drags out and they are pressed.

The price for Adam Larsson was Taylor Hall. It's not like Florida is going to offer the Leafs Ekblad for Nylander. Believe it or not, I could see PK Subban as a "possibility" but not with a 9 mil cap hit. That will be even worse than paying Nylander 7.

The Leafs are on the hook for 11 in Tavares, probably 10 in Marner and at least 12 in Matthews. That's 33 mil committed to THREE forwards! If they trade Nylander for a D, it has to be someone who comes in at 6 mil or less long-term. What top D are you getting long-term for that money? The Leafs will either be looking for a very young D with upside... who could play way above his salary for the next few years (aka Travis Sanheim) or they will target a solid (not spectacular) 2nd pairing defenseman who adds depth and strengthens their back-end. But they won't be getting a Werenski, McAvoy, Sergachev, Ekblad, Ellis type chip. Those guys don't get traded, except in extreme cases.

 

[The Winter Soldier]

For the record, Leaf centers have scored 65% of their team's goals, not 80% as has been suggested.

Also for the record, Leaf centers are primarily shooters/goal-scorers, and it includes the best goal-scoring center in the league. They will score a higher percentage of goals than most team's centers.

Also for the record, it has been 4 games, and certain posters are talking about scoring trends.

I thought we were talking about wingers? Leafs wingers have scored 4 goals this season, 3 with a goalie in net.

I will maintain, a team cannot rely on 81% actually with a goalie in net of it's goals to come from its Center group and 19 % of production from its wingers. Which Nylander is. So the answer is yes he will be missed if and when the stats normalize.

 

[SnizzNasty88]

I mean I wouldn't say no but that's not what I had in mind.

Subban + Hartman for Nylander + Zaitsev.

Where do I sign?

 

[Rob Brown]

Would love the Habs to grab him so we can shift domi to wing.

Petry + Poeling + 2019 2nd

Domi - Nylander - Gallagher
Drouin - kotka- Armia
Lehks - danault - Byron

This is pretty underwhelming.

 

[Boxscore]

I thought we were talking about wingers? Leafs wingers have scored 4 goals this season, 3 with a goalie in net.

I will maintain, a team cannot rely on 81% actually with a goalie in net of it's goals to come from its Center group and 19 % of production from its wingers. Which Nylander is.

Right now, the Leafs are the Pens. Sid and Geno carry that team offensively. The difference is, the Leafs have better toys to surround Matthews/Tavares than the Pens do. Marner is better than Kessel and Kadri is equivalent to the Pens next best offensive contributor. The Leafs kids also have younger legs. With a happy Nylander, the Leafs are even more dangerous up front. Yes, it's an embarrassment of riches, but there's nothing wrong with beating teams 6-4 if that's what it takes. The Edmonton Oilers built a dynasty out of beating teams in 8-5 games.

And, let's not forget, there are ALWAYS injuries. If Marner, Matthews or Tavares were to go down for any extended period of time, the wheels could start to fall off the cart a bit. That's where a happy Nylander could really prove his worth. I feel/felt as if this was a breakout year for Willy... I saw him scoring 70-75 points with Matthews getting 85.

 

[robertocarlos]

Nylander has made a horrific miscalculation. He can't win this. He can't lose a year at age 22 and make 0.

He would be right there with the scoring leaders riding Auston's wing.

What's wrong with a few years in the KHL?

 

[TheBeastCoast]

You are absolutely right. Poehling was a first rounder who in every way has lived up to that billing so far. He will be top 15 maybe 10 from
that draft in about a years time if he isn’t already.

Yeah that isn't enough.

 

[The Podium]

Would love the Habs to grab him so we can shift domi to wing.

Petry + Poeling + 2019 2nd

Domi - Nylander - Gallagher
Drouin - kotka- Armia
Lehks - danault - Byron

I rather have Nylander sit out for the next 5 years than take that underwhelming return, especially from Montreal

 

[DanM]

Dan,

The problem is, getting #1 or #2 Dmen are nearly impossible. I don't see Nylander commanding a young equivalent on D, simply due to supply and demand - there are none to go around. Especially when you're trying to narrow the field even further, looking for strictly a RH defenseman.

Logically, who is out there? Justin Faulk? That could be the route the Leafs go if this drags out and they are pressed.

The price for Adam Larsson was Taylor Hall. It's not like Florida is going to offer the Leafs Ekblad for Nylander. Believe it or not, I could see PK Subban as a "possibility" but not with a 9 mil cap hit. That will be even worse than paying Nylander 7.

The Leafs are on the hook for 11 in Tavares, probably 10 in Marner and at least 12 in Matthews. That's 33 mil committed to THREE forwards! If they trade Nylander for a D, it has to be someone who comes in at 6 mil or less long-term. What top D are you getting long-term for that money? The Leafs will either be looking for a very young D with upside... who could play way above his salary for the next few years (aka Travis Sanheim) or they will target a solid (not spectacular) 2nd pairing defenseman who adds depth and strengthens their back-end. But they won't be getting a Werenski, McAvoy, Sergachev, Ekblad, Ellis type chip. Those guys don't get traded, except in extreme cases.

Agree with everything you said. They are nearly impossible. Great post!

The only thing I would add is that I believe the numbers in the end will play out this way:

Marner 7-7.5
Willie 6.5-7 max
Matty 10.25-11

We read on here everyday that these guys will be all breaking the bank, but we don't know. We hear media people saying all kinds of stuff, but they still don't really know. What we have heard is Orr come out and say Matty wants to win, not just make money (Bobby is a class act, not a BSer), and JT come out and say they are all on the same page, and want to just win. We have heard more credible sources say the exact opposite of what the media clowns are saying.

Matty comments on his agent taking care of things, HFBoards takes it as "Matty wants all the money" I believe he just doesn't want to talk about it lol

My point is nobody knows anything, but I get that we all want to share opinions on it, same with the media, but I have a really hard time believing Marner or Matty don't want to win, and only want to get paid, I mean why break up a team that is close to that? especially with Lilly, Sandin, SDA, and a host of prospects that will be helping this team down the road.

However, I did not expect Willie to be out this long, I think he just want's a contract that does not allow him to be traded so easily.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

We usually agree Skinny. But I think Toronto needs him. It is very early in the season, so to be fair things can change. But Leafs wingers have scored 4 goals this season, and one was into an empty net. When the law of averages even out, and the scoring normalizes where Centers do not score 4 goals a game. Nylander not in the line up will be felt.

I agree with you, I think that Matthews is missing Nylander right now.
Nylander is usually responsible for offensive zone enteries, where he is elite, thanks to his skating/puck handling.
I can't wait to see this years new and improved Matthews with Nylander on his line shouldering some of the load and providing him with an offensive upgrade on the right wing.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

We usually agree Skinny. But I think Toronto needs him. It is very early in the season, so to be fair things can change. But Leafs wingers have scored 4 goals this season, and one was into an empty net. When the law of averages even out, and the scoring normalizes where Centers do not score 4 goals a game. Nylander not in the line up will be felt.

I agree with you, I think that Matthews is missing Nylander right now.
Nylander is usually responsible for offensive zone enteries, where he is elite, thanks to his skating/puck handling.
I can't wait to see this years new and improved Matthews with Nylander on his line shouldering some of the load and providing him with an offensive upgrade on the right wing.

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

For one, Kucherov was going to be a UFA next summer. He gave up his UFA status to sign long-term in Tampa. He was in the same situation Tavares was in last year and decided to re-sign at a discount.

And, what you say above is all true. Nobody is saying "Tavares didn't deserve the money", or at least I'm not. There are many players in the league who "deserve" more than what they're making... and there are some who deserve less. That's the business.

What people keep missing is this... and it's simple...

There's a hard cap in the NHL. Regardless of what players deserve, or even what teams are willing to spend, there is only so much a team can spend. It's up to the players individually to decide how much of that pie they are willing to accept in order to help their organizations ice a competitive team for the long haul. Period. It's cut and dry.

Are Stamkos, Hedman and Kucherov all worth more than they accepted? Of course. Did they all take less so Tampa could keep their team mostly in tact? Of course.

This has nothing to do with how much "Tavares is worth" - it has everything to do with how much cap hit Tavares was willing to command from the Leafs to play in Toronto. And he felt alright with being the 2nd largest cap hit in the NHL. No matter how you slice it, this prohibits the Leafs from signing their 3 young players to contracts that make both parties happy. We're seeing that now with Nylander.

My issue with the Tavares contract has never been that the Leafs signed him - I think it's amazing they did - it's that it set the precedent that the Leafs were willing to pay top dollar for an outsider. Once you do that, it's nearly impossible to ask your inner core to give discounts. It's just not fair.

But, let's say Tavares signed for a 9 or 9.5 mil cap hit. Then, the Leafs have leverage to say to Nylander, Marner and Matthews, "look, even Tavares is willing to give us cap flexibility so we can keep you all, can you work with us?" Lead by example.

But the Leafs can't guilt the kids into "settling" when they just proved they are willing to give a UFA the second largest cap hit in the NHL, then cry that they can't sign them because of the cap.

But it goes both ways and it’s really not that simple. Market value, for Tavares, was over $13M, which San Jose offered him. He took over 15% off when he signed in Toronto.





If Nylander is worth $8M, he should be taking roughly $6.8M. If Marner is worth $10M, he should be taking roughly $8.5M. If Matthews is worth $12M, he should be taking roughly $10.2M. These would all be in line with the discount that Tavares took.

 

[Dekes For Days]

For one, Kucherov was going to be a UFA next summer. He gave up his UFA status to sign long-term in Tampa. He was in the same situation Tavares was in last year and decided to re-sign at a discount.

Nope, he would have been an RFA at the expiry of his current contract. Signed a 3-year contract at the end of his ELC.

And he felt alright with being the 2nd largest cap hit in the NHL.

Yes, he felt alright taking 14m+ less than he could have gotten, and less than most would have taken in his situation, after already giving up a ton of money on his previous contract. Being the best UFA in a decade after a major cap increase, he should have been #1.

His ranking in cap hit dollars at the time of signing is irrelevant. It's actually less in cap hit percentage at time of signing than many UFA re-signings in recent years.

No matter how you slice it, this prohibits the Leafs from signing their 3 young players to contracts that make both parties happy. We're seeing that now with Nylander.

No, it doesn't. If it prohibits anything, it prohibits the Leafs from drastically overpaying their young RFAs, which is a good thing.

8 million for Nylander was never going to make the Leafs happy, Tavares or not.

My issue with the Tavares contract has never been that the Leafs signed him - I think it's amazing they did - it's that it set the precedent that the Leafs were willing to pay top dollar for an outsider. Once you do that, it's nearly impossible to ask your inner core to give discounts. It's just not fair.

Except they didn't pay out top dollar, and they're not asking for discounts. They are asking for him to take what his comparables make, like every GM that isn't stupid.

What they did with Tavares only strengthens their position. They told Tavares what they could pay, which was a significant discount, and they didn't budge, even when significantly better offers were out there.

But, let's say Tavares signed for a 9 or 9.5 mil cap hit. Then, the Leafs have leverage to say to Nylander, Marner and Matthews, "look, even Tavares is willing to give us cap flexibility so we can keep you all, can you work with us?" Lead by example.

They already can say that, because Tavares did give the Leafs cap flexibility by taking significantly less than he could have. He also took less on his post-ELC contract that these players are now looking for.

But the Leafs can't guilt the kids into "settling" when they just proved they are willing to give a UFA the second largest cap hit in the NHL, they cry that they can't sign them because of the cap.

They can sign them perfectly fine, but overpaying for your young players when you have all of the leverage and comparables does not make any sense, regardless of the financial situation you find yourself in.

 

[Pi]

I love Nylander but I don't think Toronto necessarily needs him anymore.

After 4 games you don't think the Leafs need Nylander? Believe it or not, they have actually scored fewer goals this season so far than last year.

Nylander is a very important part of the Matthews line. Kapanen is doing well right now but he's not Nylander.

I don't understand the holdout from his point of view because I feel like his agent is negotiating based on what if scenarios. If the had the same luck on the PP as the year before, he's likely around 70-75 points, but the fact is, he didn't have that.

He's really good at putting up points on ES. The Leafs do need someone to run that second PP. If injuries occur to any one of Kadri, Tavares, Matthews etc, he can slot in at centre because he's played C every so often on Matthews' line.

Toronto needs him. Just at a reasonable price. I feel like we're likely headed for a 3-4 year deal if they stay at an impasse for another month. Toronto doesn't need him right now but they do need him before Dec 1st otherwise we've just wasted an extremely cheap year of Matthews and Marner for nothing. Leafs have cap space to add a big rental at the deadline even after signing Nylander. If Nylander isn't signed by Dec 1st, then we just swapped Tavares for Nylander, which is an upgrade but not the substantial one as having both in the lineup.

D problems of the Leafs are highly exaggerated. Babcock just needs to get his head out of his ass and stop playing Hainsey with Rielly. Rielly is carrying the D with tough minutes but he doesn't really have to if he had a half decent partner. Hainsey should be in a role similar to Polak's from last year.

But it goes both ways and it’s really not that simple. Market value, for Tavares, was over $13M, which San Jose offered him. He took over 15% off when he signed in Toronto.





If Nylander is worth $8M, he should be taking roughly $6.8M. If Marner is worth $10M, he should be taking roughly $8.5M. If Matthews is worth $12M, he should be taking roughly $10.2M. These would all be in line with the discount that Tavares took.

Marner and Nylander will come around 15M combined IMO but you're not getting a discount on Matthews.

Marner demanding 10M would be funny unless he's winning the Art Ross this year. His only comparable for that is Eichel and Eichel plays a more valuable position.

If we can see that Matthews is better than Tavares, I am sure his agents at the Orr group can see that as well. They negotiated the McDavid contract and I don't see him getting anything less than 11M or more than 12.5M.

 

[Evgeny Oliker]

To me the team that needs Nylander the most is NYR.

NYR has a ton of centers but none of them are nearly as talented as Nylander. For a team that is trying to rebuild, developing a #1 Center is one of the keys.

NYR will likely have to give up Skjei here. But to me Skjei is going to be a good top 4, not elite #1 Dman. Also, they still have Pionk, Diangelo, etc. They should get a decent 1st round pick with which to draft a Dman as well.


Maybe something like this:
Nylander, 2nd, 5th in 2019
for
Skjei, Zuccarello


This would give the Rangers an actual #1 Center:
Kreider - Nylander - Buchnevich
Vesey - Hayes - Spooner
Namestnikov - Chytil - Fast
McLeod - Zibanejad - Howden

Pionk - McQuaid
DeAngelo - Staal
Smith - Claesson

In the off-season, or at the deadline, they should also trade Zibanejad or Hayes since they just have too many Centers after this trade.

 

[BHFAN92]

Center-Nick Schmaltz & D-Gustav Forsling plus 3rd rd pick for William Nylander..who says no