Speculation: Nylander contract talk (All Nylander talk here)

[lifelonghockeyfan]

Pasta might/could be better than Nylander. But he has played Bergerorn and Hart finalists Marchand, while Nylander's has played with rookie and sophomore Matthews and rookie sophomore Hyman.
Gee, although both sides may want a long term deal, it sure looks like a bridge might be the only solution. I'd be licking my lips if I was the Leaf negotiators , when Reinhart just signed for 3.625m for two years. Seems like Nylander doesn't have much leverage for a 7m plus long term deal or a 4.5m plus short term deal.

 

[NotOpie]

We're not in seller mode. We're not moving a core young, proven asset for the best realistic trade value unless that return also helps us now.

This isn't about being a seller, it's about managing assets properly. You can get players that help now that are the exact need. Making the best trade you can without getting exactly what you want happens often. What if you could get back another young NHL forward who is a proven 45-50 point scorer and a nice RHD prospect (plus whatever necessary adds makes the value right). If he's not going to sign and/or if he is it will be for much more money than the organization wants to spend, then you get the best deal you can. It doesn't have to be for futures; it's for whatever assets can help.

 

[StreetHawk]

Take the long term deal the leafs are offering and play for a winning organization with all your buddies.

Or

Take the 2 year bridge deal and get your ass traded to some off brand market when your contract demands are too high.

I know what I’d pick.

There is no guarantee that he remains on the Leafs with option 1. In fact option 1 makes him more likely to be moved since the team getting him would have term.

Leaf fans want him on a cap friendly deal yet are more than willing to include him in a trade for a Dman.

Nylander can’t get trade protection in his deal until his ufa years. So, he may end up taking a discount only to be moved this he ends up in options 2 but making less than he could and not playing worth his buddies.

He signs when he signs. I don’t think any player should take a discount during their RFA years. Wait until you can have some control in your contract before you think about discounts.

 

[bukwas]

It's weird but the closer the season gets the less interest i have in this whole situation.

 

[StreetHawk]

It's weird but the closer the season gets the less interest i have in this whole situation.

I think we went through last off season without a big name RFA missing games before they can to terms.

prior year, it was Trouba, Lindholm, who missed time to start the year.

This year it's Nylander, Theodore who have missed the first week of pre-season. And to a lesser extent Ritchie.

This is what happens when you don't give younger players arbitration rights until they reach a certain age/service time. Only way they play is for the 2 sides to come to terms on either a bridge or long term deal.

Any player who can still take their offensive game up another level should take a bridge unless they get numbers that they are comfortable with. There's security vs betting on yourself.

Nylander has put up good enough numbers that he can go term. But, he knows that Mathews will set the bar for the rest of the younger players, so he doesn't want to be the guy to be that much lower than his counterparts.

He'll get signed as he won't want to miss out on the season. Just a matter of when.

 

[Liferleafer]

It's weird but the closer the season gets the less interest i have in this whole situation.

If we hadn't signed Tavares...i would be really concerned, but right now....if Nylander was traded for an upgrade at RHD....it wouldn'y upset me.

 

[bukwas]

I think we went through last off season without a big name RFA missing games before they can to terms.

prior year, it was Trouba, Lindholm, who missed time to start the year.

This year it's Nylander, Theodore who have missed the first week of pre-season. And to a lesser extent Ritchie.

This is what happens when you don't give younger players arbitration rights until they reach a certain age/service time. Only way they play is for the 2 sides to come to terms on either a bridge or long term deal.

Any player who can still take their offensive game up another level should take a bridge unless they get numbers that they are comfortable with. There's security vs betting on yourself.

Nylander has put up good enough numbers that he can go term. But, he knows that Mathews will set the bar for the rest of the younger players, so he doesn't want to be the guy to be that much lower than his counterparts.

He'll get signed as he won't want to miss out on the season. Just a matter of when.

But he has to understand that completely hypothetical numbers in the future can have no bearing on his current situation. Management would dismiss them out of hand as they should and there's no compelling reasoning for him to expect them to give unknown scenarios any consideration.
He's welcome to contemplate those what ifs and maybe's if he chooses to but there's absolutely no reason to allow them to impact these talks today.

 

[Confucius]

There is no guarantee that he remains on the Leafs with option 1. In fact option 1 makes him more likely to be moved since the team getting him would have term.

Leaf fans want him on a cap friendly deal yet are more than willing to include him in a trade for a Dman.

Nylander can’t get trade protection in his deal until his ufa years. So, he may end up taking a discount only to be moved this he ends up in options 2 but making less than he could and not playing worth his buddies.

He signs when he signs. I don’t think any player should take a discount during their RFA years. Wait until you can have some control in your contract before you think about discounts.

We've long since accepted Willie is giving us no discount. Now its just hoping he signs for market value 6 million. I'm hoping its not him wanting us to overpay.

 

[StreetHawk]

We've long since accepted Willie is giving us no discount. Now its just hoping he signs for market value 6 million. I'm hoping its not him wanting us to overpay.

It’s then likely coming down to what both sides think he can produce which impacts the expected value.

Does nylander fancy himself as an 80 point guy? What do the leafs expect from him 70 points? 2 years at 60 at his age gives you what kind of expectation going forward?

I’m a realist, so I would be negotiating with the target that I think he’ll be a 70 point guy in average over the next 6 years. I would be basing my numbers off that target. But see what the 2 sides think. Cause you’re paying him for his upcoming production using his elc production to set your level of comfort of your expectation for him.

 

[Confucius]

It’s then likely coming down to what both sides think he can produce which impacts the expected value.

Does nylander fancy himself as an 80 point guy? What do the leafs expect from him 70 points? 2 years at 60 at his age gives you what kind of expectation going forward?

I’m a realist, so I would be negotiating with the target that I think he’ll be a 70 point guy in average over the next 6 years. I would be basing my numbers off that target. But see what the 2 sides think. Cause you’re paying him for his upcoming production using his elc production to set your level of comfort of your expectation for him.

I saw a stat a couple of years ago where almost all forwards have their most productive seasons by age 23. After that it just levels out. Willie is 22, not old but its not like some phenom that made the team at 18 and had two 60 point season by age 20.
So this season may well be Willies best whatever that may be.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

I saw a stat a couple of years ago where almost all forwards have their most productive seasons by age 23.

That seems far-fetched.

Link ?

 

[FrozenJagrt]

That seems far-fetched.

Link ?

Once you start to think about it, for high end talent that actually sounds about right. I can't think of too many guys playing right now who were better at 28/29 than 23/24.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Nylander at 2.75 for 4 years...I'll take that.

 

[Confucius]

That seems far-fetched.

Link ?

like I remember. However a quick check of stats I found it held true for Stamkos, Crosby and Ovechkin. The only 3 I checked

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

Once you start to think about it, for high end talent that actually sounds about right. I can't think of too many guys playing right now who were better at 28/29 than 23/24.

Quite a chasm between 23 and 29...

 

[BLONG7]

Nylander at 2.75 for 4 years...I'll take that.

And Marner for 4M and Matthews at 6M also would work................lol

Maybe the salary cap issues was what Babs was talking about, there is pain coming...

 

[bukwas]

And Marner for 4M and Matthews at 6M also would work................lol

Maybe the salary cap issues was what Babs was talking about, there is pain coming...

I doubt at that time he was thinking there would be so much talent that the cap space would be tight.
Even Babcock with his ego wouldn't credit himself with having as high a level of foresight as you think he does.

 

[A1LeafNation]

And Marner for 4M and Matthews at 6M also would work................lol

Maybe the salary cap issues was what Babs was talking about, there is pain coming...

Well if ppl only want to quote the high end, why not be fair and quote the low end too.

 

[north49er]

Saw this speculation on another site. Since Dallas was in on Tavares and Karlsson they might consider Nylander. What would Dallas have to give up?

 

[Brock Radunske]

Saw this speculation on another site. Since Dallas was in on Tavares and Karlsson they might consider Nylander. What would Dallas have to give up?

Heiskanen+ is the logical place to start.

 

[Ori]

Heiskanen+ is the logical place to start.

I really doubt Stars will do that.

 

[LT]

Too much. Not moving Heiskanen, and we don’t have anything else worth enough to get Nylander.

He’d be great to have but is an unrealistic trade target.

 

[Ori]

Yes you don`t move your top ELC players in exchange of a guy who will more likely get paid this year.

 

[Nizdizzle]

Then case closed, no deal to be made.

 

[LeafGrief]

Dallas would have to give Heiskanen. Understandably, they want him on their own blueline. I don't think there is anything else that the Leafs would be interested in as a return for Nylander.