Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[crump]

I think the Adam Henrique signing should help our cause when signing Nylander. $29.1 million, five-year contract. He is also a centre which adds value. A nice signing by The Ducks should help us a bit in negotiations.

Yes but he's 28 years old. He pretty much has shown his ceiling as a 25 goal 45 point centre. Only reaching 50 points once. He will start declining by the end of this deal. I am not sure what intangibles Henrique brings but I think Willy has already surpassed his offensive output and still just finishing his entry deal. Sure, I hope they use it to drive the price down, but I could see an agent actually using it to bump up his price.

 

[Sypher04]

Are we not allowed to have a civil debate...? Just because someone has a differing view point doesn't mean that their view point is 'stupid' or doesn't have merrit.

We need to save money next season when Matthews and Marner get their new contracts, so yes... we kind of do need it. I don't think Marleau is a garuntee to be gone, so we're going to need to prepare as if he's staying on our roster.

The concept of bridging isn't all that bad... Its taking a gamble... It could pay off, it could not. If it doesn't 'pay off', then that ultimately is a good thing, because that means that the said player is developing and improving. Briding also gives us a couple more value years of the player in their prime...

If we were to sign Nylander to a 6 year contract now at 6.5 million, he becomes a UFA at 28 years old. At 28 years old (if he's playing up to expectations), he will undoubtedly want more term at a higher rate, which means the latter half of his deal will be non-prime years. Not only that, he will have more leverage because he's a UFA.

If we were to sign Nylander to an 8 year contract now at 7 million, he becomes a UFA at 30 years old. At 30, he would still be looking for term at high cap hit, and has leverage to get what he wants.

If we were to sign Nylander to a 2 year contract at 4 million now, he is still an RFA at 24 years old. We will have a much better idea of they calliber of player he is, and what he's worth. We can THEN lock him up to the 8 year contract... Hypothetically, lets say its 8x8.5... So what if its 1-2 million higher for the first 4-6 years of that contract... the contract would still be good value on the latter half, and we retain him for all of his prime years as he wouldn't become a UFA until he's 32!


Look, its okay to dislike the bridge contract, but the concept certainly isn't 'stupid'. If we were to bridge any of our 'big 3', it should be Nylander IMO... Matthews and Marner are much more of a 'sure thing'.

I actually feel like we are having civil debate. My position is that a bridge would be stupid, so I've addressed it as such. Obviously, I'm not taking shots at you personally, because I don't believe in doing that, and because I don't think people should be belittled for having different ideas/thoughts. I will 100% belittle the idea though.

 

[Pi]

I actually feel like we are having civil debate. My position is that a bridge would be stupid, so I've addressed it as such. Obviously, I'm not taking shots at you personally, because I don't believe in doing that, and because I don't think people should be belittled for having different ideas/thoughts. I will 100% belittle the idea though.

Why would a bridge be stupid? Let’s say he’s bridged at 4.5M for three years and after that he becomes a superstar that gets paid 10M in a 88-90M cap (unlikely scenario but going high anyways).

That’s 93.5M over 11 years at a cumulative cap hit of 8.5M but with three years where we can add more players in his prime. It will be like the Kucherov contract. I’ll be more than happy to pay Nylander 10-11M if he suddenly becomes Kucherov in three years.

 

[Sypher04]

Why would a bridge be stupid? Let’s say he’s bridged at 4.5M for three years and after that he becomes a superstar that gets paid 10M in a 88-90M cap (unlikely scenario but going high anyways).

That’s 93.5M over 11 years at a cumulative cap hit of 8.5M but with three years where we can add more players in his prime. It will be like the Kucherov contract. I’ll be more than happy to pay Nylander 10-11M if he suddenly becomes Kucherov in three years.

We are going to have Matthews at probably 11. Tavares at 11. Marner at 7.5 maybe now if we sign him, if he breaks out this year with Tavares, he could costs us more like 8-9. Paying 8-10m for Nylander when you could have had him for probably ~6.5m now seems like pretty lousy cap management.

 

[crump]

8 years at 6.5 is what I am hoping for. Not my money at the end of the day, if they can make it work then we get 8 years of this....


Love how Ekblad's stick explodes off of Willy there at the end.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Who wasn’t? He was pretty soft.

So you are just guessing then. You should make that clear.

8 years at 6.5 is what I am hoping for. Not my money at the end of the day, if they can make it work then we get 8 years of this....


Love how Ekblad's stick explodes off of Willy there at the end.

Pretty good example of why he was top five in the league in adjusted takeaways.

 

[Pi]

8 years at 6.5 is what I am hoping for. Not my money at the end of the day, if they can make it work then we get 8 years of this....


Love how Ekblad's stick explodes off of Willy there at the end.

Nylander would have to get really bad advice to sign for 6.5M for 8 years. That would pay him less than JvR at the same age with a cap that will likely be $100M and Nylander >>> JvR.

Pastrnak signed for 6 years, Ehlers signed for 7. To get Nylander for 8 years, the Leafs would have to go at least 7M if not more. I think he's going to sign for either 6 years at around Pastrnak money or 8 years above Ehlers and Pastrnak around 7-7.25M.

 

[Nineteen67]

So you are just guessing then. You should make that clear.

I was actually asking a question

 

[Sypher04]

Nylander would have to get really bad advice to sign for 6.5M for 8 years. That would pay him less than JvR at the same age with a cap that will likely be $100M and Nylander >>> JvR.

Pastrnak signed for 6 years, Ehlers signed for 7. To get Nylander for 8 years, the Leafs would have to go at least 7M if not more. I think he's going to sign for either 6 years at around Pastrnak money or 8 years above Ehlers and Pastrnak around 7-7.25M.

Except he simply doesn't have the leverage to ask for that.

If he signs for 7 years, the same term as Ehlers, he's worth about the same in cap percentage (Ehlers actually outproduced him in their respective contract years by 9 goals, and 3 points)

Ehlers got 8% of a 75 million dollar cap... 8% of a 79.5 million dollar cap for Nylander is only 6.36m

1 extra year obviously increases that AAV, but not that significantly. Even if they paid him at 10m for year 8, it brings the AAV up less than 500k

 

[613Leafer]

Dont know but can it have someting to do with taking percentage of the cap?

Ehlers contract starts this season, same as Nylanders. % of the cap is the exact same if Nylander gets 6M.

 

[ZEBROA]

Ehlers contract starts this season, same as Nylanders. % of the cap is the exact same if Nylander gets 6M.

ok 6M sounds fair then.

 

[moon111]

what about nylander makes you think he is not humble?

I just get this, "I know I'm good' attitude coming from him. He'll be Nylander all day, every day and have a great hockey career.
Does he want to score or win? Someone who wants to win covers the point in his defensive zone. They'll dig in the boards to
get a puck. They'll take a hit to make a play. I recently was talking about +/- to someone and pointed out, it doesn't tell you
how many minutes a player was on the ice cheating trying to score. When you're not on a great team, how many times does a
player make a more risky play to try and tie up a game? Bozak is a career - 78, Tavares is a career -42. These players might
have an excuse for their risky plays made for the benefit of the team. Nylander plays like he needs to even up the score even
when the team is winning though. Think there's a reason his +/- winds up being lower then his line-mates. His overall game
is not that of a leader, but that of a really good offensive support player. Can he be coached? Personally I think the Leafs
need to consider the entire package. If he comes out with really bad one-sided contract negotiations, there's deals to be
made. Nylander, Leivo, Gardiner for Karlsson, Brady Tkachuk, and Mark Stone? I'm no G.M. or scout, but it really moving
him wouldn't be difficult.

 

[JuanSnow]

Dont know but can it have someting to do with taking percentage of the cap?

I think Nylander is a little bit underrated. If leafs dont want him maby some other team will want Will.

0,5 more or less... i dont care. But ok let Will have 6.5 that seems ok.

Ehlers' deal and Nylander's deal would exist in the same 7 seasons (with the same cap levels). Ehlers' deal would already have future cap increase projections baked into it. So the only way Nylander should get more (and it would be slightly more) would be if the cap went up more this year then it was anticipated to go up 12 months ago.

 

[Sypher04]

Ehlers contract starts this season, same as Nylanders. % of the cap is the exact same if Nylander gets 6M.

Comparing percentage of the cap is in reference to signing date of the contract. Ehlers contract was 8% of the cap when it was at 75 million. To pay Nylander equally we would need to pay him 8% of the new cap which is 79.5 million. So $6,360,000

 

[JuanSnow]

Comparing percentage of the cap is in reference to signing date of the contract. Ehlers contract was 8% of the cap when it was at 75 million. To pay Nylander equally we would need to pay him 8% of the new cap which is 79.5 million. So $6,360,000

I have to assume that long term contracts aren't based on the present value of the cap. If I was an agent I would project what the cap is going to be in the mid-way point of the deal (in this case year 4), and then say I want X% of that number. So the player is overpaid for the first 3 seasons and underpaid in the last 3 seasons.

If that is how this was done you would just need marginal adjustments to the Ehlers 6 mil number to account for this past years cap increase (vs. whatever was projected last year).

But even if the agents and GMs were somehow too stupid to do that and based everything off the current cap limit, I would be ok was a 7x6.36 deal for Nylander.

 

[dirk41]

Ehlers only had one 60-point season at the time of the signing. There's more risk from the team's standpoint that it was a fluke season (as small as that still is). A team should be more confident that 60 points is the floor when a player does it twice in his first two full seasons than if he just does it once.

It's funny that Ehlers signed for the exact same deal that Hopkins signed for in September of 2013, after a 4-goal and 20-assist 40-game season. I guess that speaks to the ineptitude of the Oilers.

 

[613Leafer]

Comparing percentage of the cap is in reference to signing date of the contract. Ehlers contract was 8% of the cap when it was at 75 million. To pay Nylander equally we would need to pay him 8% of the new cap which is 79.5 million. So $6,360,000

No it's not. Contracts are signed based on a presumption of cap growth.

They knew the cap in the year Ehlers contract started wasn't going to be 75M. Heck public reports last December were that the cap was expected to rise to 78-82M. It rose to 80M, which is right in the middle of what was expected.

They may not have known exactly what the cap was going to be, but they knew it'd be ~3-5M higher than last year, and made the contract accordingly.

 

[Sypher04]

No it's not. Contracts are signed based on a presumption of cap growth.

They knew the cap in the year Ehlers contract started wasn't going to be 75M. Heck public reports last December were that the cap was expected to rise to 78-82M. It rose to 80M, which is right in the middle of what was expected.

They may not have known exactly what the cap was going to be, but they knew it'd be ~3-5M higher than last year, and made the contract accordingly.

Yeah. It actually is and that's always how cap percentages are compared. By signing date.

As for the estimates it would be 78-82 those were, if memory serves, announced well after Ehlers extension was signed

 

[Menzinger]

Why would a bridge be stupid? Let’s say he’s bridged at 4.5M for three years and after that he becomes a superstar that gets paid 10M in a 88-90M cap (unlikely scenario but going high anyways).

That’s 93.5M over 11 years at a cumulative cap hit of 8.5M but with three years where we can add more players in his prime. It will be like the Kucherov contract. I’ll be more than happy to pay Nylander 10-11M if he suddenly becomes Kucherov in three years.

I’d rather pay a guy 6.5ish mil than 8-10.

 

[cannucky]

If they figured the new cap into Ehlers contract then he got less than 8% of the projected cap making Nylanders comp value less than 8% of the projected cap , so again just a few hundred thousand over what Ehler signed for . Funny how math works eh ?

 

[MyBudJT]

Ehlers' deal and Nylander's deal would exist in the same 7 seasons (with the same cap levels). Ehlers' deal would already have future cap increase projections baked into it. So the only way Nylander should get more (and it would be slightly more) would be if the cap went up more this year then it was anticipated to go up 12 months ago.

This.

Even 12 months ago I think most expected the cap would go up to about 80 mil with the Vegas expansion. We knew it wasn’t going to stay flat.

 

[AngryScotsman]

I'd like to see what kind of an upgrade on decence a package of Nylander+Gardiner could get us.

 

[Legion34]

Comparing percentage of the cap is in reference to signing date of the contract. Ehlers contract was 8% of the cap when it was at 75 million. To pay Nylander equally we would need to pay him 8% of the new cap which is 79.5 million. So $6,360,000

Meh the cap was rumoured to be 80 before ythe season started

 

[Schooner]

Quiet day in TO, sounds like a good day to sign Willy

 

[Duke Silver]

Except he simply doesn't have the leverage to ask for that.

If he signs for 7 years, the same term as Ehlers, he's worth about the same in cap percentage (Ehlers actually outproduced him in their respective contract years by 9 goals, and 3 points)

Ehlers got 8% of a 75 million dollar cap... 8% of a 79.5 million dollar cap for Nylander is only 6.36m

1 extra year obviously increases that AAV, but not that significantly. Even if they paid him at 10m for year 8, it brings the AAV up less than 500k

Except Ehlers wasn't paid for what he did in his contract year. He signed his deal before year 3 of his ELC.

Ehlers had a 0.66ppg up to that point in his career. Nylander has 0.75 over his last two seasons (same sample size as Ehlers).