Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[The Best Leafs Ever]

You guys know who else wants 8 though? Trouba, none of them is getting that for sure.

 

[Tavares to Marner]

Or perhaps they should not overreact to an opening ask and actually negotiate, like a competent management team would.

Jeez.

well duh but I'm implying if he doesnt want to settle for below 8

 

[kindalaidback]

‘grandson source’ hmm, sure

 

[Nithoniniel]

well duh but I'm implying if he doesnt want to settle for below 8

I don't think that's something we need to worry about. Something like that happen very rarely, and Willy doesn't have a case for 8.

 

[diceman934]

I know a close friend of Nylander's girlfriend and apparently hes holding out for 8x8M

He will have a long wait. Not happen any time soon.

Taking the coilers and buffalo out of the equation are those numbers really that out of line? Buffalo and Edmonton are outliers, not the norm. Kucherov just gave up 7 ufa years on a 8 year deal for 9.5 after a 4.6 bridge deal. He’s coming off back to back ppg+ seasons
Nylander and Marner comps are ehlers pasta Johnny hockey MacK forsberg tarasenko, or Kucherov if you’re talking about bridge deals. Factor in cap increase compared to when those guys signed and 7m is probably the +/- for Marner and Nylander (6.5-7.5aav 6-8 Years) and 5ish for a 2-3 year deal.
Matthews is trickier as he’s in another tier of player all together and they don’t come around as often. The last guys who Matthews compares to all took 5 year deals (Geno Kopi Toews JT Stamkos) with cap % that were pretty high, but there was expectations for a fast rising cap which never materialized. I also think it’s hard to give an rfa in Matthews more than a big ufa like JT. I see Matthews getting between 10-11. If the big 3 get locked in long term for 25ish, add jt @ 11 and Kadri for 4.5 that’s about 40m you have you’re core 5 guys up front locked in long term. Kadri’s steal of a contract really lets us make this group possible. A core that consists of two top ten centres, and another 1c quality guy with two ppg capable wingers to compliment them. Zaitsev and Rielly clock in at 9.5 combined, with Andersen at 5 make that 55m for your core 5 forwards, two top 4 pairing guys and a top ten goalie. Cap expected to rise to 80-85m over the next few years makes it very doable.
I’m also a huge fan of staggering the expiration date of the forward group by going 6 years for Nylander 7 for Marner and 8 for Matthews so then only one of the big four forwards come up in a single year in the future. It really hamstrings you when there’s two big deals to negotiate in a singular off season, just see our situation next summer with both Marner and Matthews in need of new deals, if you ask the general fan base it’s impending cap hell.

You can stagger by giving Nylander 7 years and Marner 7 years and Mathews 8 years. Nylander contract would start this year and Marner and Mathews the following year.

I see us signing Nylander to a 3 year deal or a 7 year deal with a short term deal most likely. 2 to 3, years at 5m per or 7 years at 6.75 per.

Marner if he signs this season is looking at 7.5 per. Mathews can sign this year or next summer he is getting 10.5 to 11m per. Marner is the one we need to sign this summer between him and Mathews as he will get a lot more next summer after a great season.

 

[diceman934]

I dont think Nylander will settle for anything less then Marner. His Father and Agent will see to that.
Michael Nylander made a fair point when he played in Calgary. - I am commodity, why should I pretend playing for the Team if not even the Owners do it?
You guys should prepare for at least 6M or he will leave.

His father was and still is an idiot. He was not a well liked player.

As for your opinion that he will not sign for less than Marner well it holds no merit at all as Nylander needs to sign a contract to play this year and Marner is still under contract until after this coming season. So Nylander will sign his contract before knowing what Marner gets in all likelihood and even if Marner signs first, he is worth more and will get more.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Marner is the one we need to sign this summer between him and Mathews as he will get a lot more next summer after a great season.

Yeah. Problem is, Marner knows this too. I doubt he's going to sign a year early.

 

[diceman934]

Yeah. Problem is, Marner knows this too. I doubt he's going to sign a year early.

I would have said that before we signed JT but now I am think that if the money is right he will sign this year. 7.5 @ 7 years may be the deal.

 

[Notsince67]

Clearly Michael wants a lot more for his kid long term than Leafs are prepared to pay so you will a 2-4 year bridge deal. The real issue is Shanny was really quite pissed at young Nylanders play in playoffs. It will get resolved but may go close to camp.

I'm curious. It this your opinion or do you know this for a fact?

 

[A1LeafNation]

I would have said that before we signed JT but now I am think that if the money is right he will sign this year. 7.5 @ 7 years may be the deal.

I don't see why Marner gets more than Nylander.

They both (Marner and Nylander) should sign 7x7. A little more than Ehlers/Pastrnak but much less than Kucherov.

No sense in playing favourites in one over the other when they are considered in the same tier.

 

[diceman934]

I don't see why Marner gets more than Nylander.

They both (Marner and Nylander) should sign 7x7. A little more than Ehlers/Pastrnak but much less than Kucherov.

No sense in playing favourites in one over the other when they are considered in the same tier.

Only they are not similar players or in the same Tier.

Marner is a year younger and with less pro hockey experience produced more points and still has a year more before he has to sign. His contract value is currently higher and I can only see the gap getting bigger. His play this past season after Jan and in the playoffs seperated himself from Nylander and put himself in the tier that I said he would be in when we drafted him. A franchise player something that Nylander will not be.
This takes nothing away from Nylander but to say they are in the same tier is wrong as one is a top line winger and the other a franchise player.
We need to pay Marner this year for a 8 year deal at around 7.5 per or after next year it will be at 9m plus per . That extra 1.5 to 2m a year will help us keep good supporting players.

 

[The Best Leafs Ever]

Voted he will be traded, I mean how the **** do we know when he will sign lmao..

 

[Sypher04]

No offence to Gramps and others in the know, but in reality we don't really know what is being negotiated because there are 2 sides to the equation. What one source says is being considered is one perspective...and third hand at best. A bridge deal worked well with Kadri. Don't see any reason why it wouldn't work for Nylander as a compromise if he's asking for the moon. If it gives him motivation to become a complete player and prove he can be a true scorer in this league then all the power to him. I think Marner is almost a Franchise player so I would try to lock up Marner and Matthews for 8 years, you pretty much know what you're going to get and both are essential moving forward. Nylander has yet to solidify his place imho.

A bridge deal worked with Kadri because his career started out slow. You don't bridge a kid with back to back 20g/60pt seasons to open his career.

As for Marner vs Nylander. They are both terrific. Marner has a slight edge maybe at this moment due a bit higher career high in points, but it's to early still to call which one is going to be the better of two. Even if it's likely Marner.

 

[crump]

Y

A bridge deal worked with Kadri because his career started out slow. You don't bridge a kid with back to back 20g/60pt seasons to open his career.

As for Marner vs Nylander. They are both terrific. Marner has a slight edge maybe at this moment due a bit higher career high in points, but it's to early still to call which one is going to be the better of two. Even if it's likely Marner.

You could argue Kadri didn't have a player of Matthews quality on his lines when he started, also, Nylander didn't start his career with back to back 20 goal seasons..if you want to cherry pick stats let's look at their first full seasons including the lockout shortened season. Kadri on pace for over 30 goals in 12/13 and followed it up with a 20 goal season....it's not as far fetched as you make it out to be.

 

[4thline]

Bridging Nylander is viable IF (and only if) they expect to lock up both Kap and AJ and budget deals and have them grow into only slightly less than what Willy is today, and they're prepared to trade Nylander at the end of the bridge.

 

[Sypher04]

Y


You could argue Kadri didn't have a player of Matthews quality on his lines when he started, also, Nylander didn't start his career with back to back 20 goal seasons..if you want to cherry pick stats let's look at their first full seasons including the lockout shortened season. Kadri on pace for over 30 goals in 12/13 and followed it up with a 20 goal season....it's not as far fetched as you make it out to be.

How am I cherry picking? His first 2 seasons in the NHL he scored 20 and 22 goals. If you wanna say his first season in NHL was the 22 games the previous year, you're wrong, and you're also nitpicking to the utmost degree. Not only that, but if you wanna talk about pace, that 22 games he played the end of the previous season to his rookie year he scored 6 goals in 22 games, which is *GASP* over 20 goals pace.

 

[JuanSnow]

Didn't Ehlers and Pastrnak go well into September before signing?

 

[TheBigThree]

I have a feeling they are working on matthews, marner and nylander together. They all will take some kind of hometown discount to make it work

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Gramps here. I am greedy now in old age. I want Leafs to sign all 3 plus get a couple rock solid dmen who know how to protect the net. We need our Cup back. Let the rock stars like Dubie and co figure out the math. And the sooner the better. I have always said I believe it today even thought the game has changed as you guys point out that a couple big boys who play mean on the back end can free up and really help out guys like Nylander shine. I realize Chara is near the end but he is so big and strong that he intimidates many players. It takes a really big man to stand up to that guy and trade. Again I realize it is old school but there is truth that everyone plays bigger when Chara is there. Now back him up with McQuaid and there is another bad dude that makes Boston work. Wait and see when Chara retires the Bruins will hit the skids and may not even be a playoff team. And i hate the Bruins and Habs like dog sh*t.

 

[Cobra777]

Gramps here. I am greedy now in old age. I want Leafs to sign all 3 plus get a couple rock solid dmen who know how to protect the net. We need our Cup back. Let the rock stars like Dubie and co figure out the math. And the sooner the better. I have always said I believe it today even thought the game has changed as you guys point out that a couple big boys who play mean on the back end can free up and really help out guys like Nylander shine. I realize Chara is near the end but he is so big and strong that he intimidates many players. It takes a really big man to stand up to that guy and trade. Again I realize it is old school but there is truth that everyone plays bigger when Chara is there. Now back him up with McQuaid and there is another bad dude that makes Boston work. Wait and see when Chara retires the Bruins will hit the skids and may not even be a playoff team. And i hate the Bruins and Habs like dog sh*t.

Its old school Gramps but sooo true, the big guys make you keep your head up and on a swivel and they also breathe confidence in the rest of your team, they must be decent skaters with a good tape to tape 1st pass as well, big physical defense quells the other teams cycle because they are strong enough to knock guys down and off the puck take 2 strides and make a nice outlet pass. when Chara, Ekblad etc. are on the ice there are alot of guys knocked down on their arses

 

[MyBudJT]

Doesn’t really matter when, it matters how much!

I’m starting to wonder if a 2x4.5 bridge is worth it. Allows you to give Nylander a raise when Marleau comes off the books!

 

[Sypher04]

You definitely want some sandpaper defensively, but it has little to do with them "making the team play bigger" which is simply not a thing. It's more that you need people who can battle in corners and not be out muscled.

 

[Sypher04]

Doesn’t really matter when, it matters how much!

I’m starting to wonder if a 2x4.5 bridge is worth it. Allows you to give Nylander a raise when Marleau comes off the books!

1) There is no way Nylander signs a bridge at 4.5m. He's already worth ~1m more than that AAV based purely on current production
2) It wouldn't be in our favour anyway

Some comparables for Nylander:

Drouin signed jun 15 2017, 6 years, 5.5m = 5.83m with 6% cap increase
Ehlers signed oct 4 2017, 7 years, 6m = 6.36m with 6% cap increase
Huberdeau signed sep 6 2016, 6 years, 6.3m = 6.82m with 8.18% cap increase
Forsberg signed jun 27 2016, 6 years, 6m = 6.49m with 8.18% cap increase
Gaudreau signed oct 10, 2016, 6 years, 6.75m = 7.3m with 8.18% cap increase
Pastrnak signed sep 14 2017, 6 years, 6.66m = 7.06m with 6% cap increase

Of these, Forsberg, Gaudreau & Pastrnak all scored 30+ in their final ELC year. And 2 of the 3 were near a point per game. They represent the absolute ceiling for where a Nylander contract could go, but Gaudreau/Pastrnak are both likely above.

If you average Drouin, Ehlers, Huberdeau, & Gaudreau's adjusted cap you'll get 6.375m slighty adjust for the fact that Nylander has been a bit more productive over 2 first seasons then Drouin/Ehlers were and make it 6.5m

If people think saving 1m on this contract is worth lopping off 5 years, idk what to tell you. The folly in that logic will become very clear when Nylander puts up near a point per game, the cap goes up another 4-5m dollars, and we're looking down the barrel off of an 8m+ extension in 2 years.

 

[SHANNYPLAN]

July 17 at 2pm.

I may be wrong, but I’ve heard 2:30

 

[Walshy7]

Didn't Ehlers and Pastrnak go well into September before signing?

Pastrnak sat out for a bit too, it may have been training camp/pre season games I cant remember but I do remember they were making a big deal out of it