Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[Liminality]

well, Pastrnak is a 21 yr old 80pt 1st liner and he got $6.67x5

age 20: 34-36-70 in 75
age 21: 35-45-80

75% production = 75% of the contract, so call it an even $5 mill per

Yes but what did he accomplish when he signed his contract? (Sept 14th, 2017)

 

[BigBadBruins7708]

Yes but what did he accomplish when he signed his contract? (Sept 14th, 2017)

34 goal season, 12 more than Nylander
70 points, 9 more than Nylander
0.93 ppg, vs 0.75 for Nylander

 

[Liminality]

34 goal season, 12 more than Nylander
70 points, 9 more than Nylander
0.93 ppg, vs 0.75 for Nylander

And the seasons before that?

 

[dirk41]

But I wasn’t allowed to use context when I brought up Kadri.

I was told players are judged in what they’ve done “right now”.

Nylander is a 60 point player with first line minutes and PP time, so should be paid as such.

You aren’t allowed to use “context” only when it supports your argument.

Stop bringing up Kadri. He signed coming off of seasons of 39 points (age 24) and 45 points (age 25), averaging more ice time than Nylander. And guess what, Kadri had more PP points in his contract year.

First-line minutes? If Nylander received first line minutes, why did he finish 133rd among forwads in minutes (note there can only be 93 first line forwards). Most first-liners get 18+, not 16+.

You do know that he was on the second PP unit most of the season?

 

[dirk41]

well, Pastrnak is a 21 yr old 80pt 1st liner and he got $6.67x5

age 20: 34-36-70 in 75
age 21: 35-45-80

75% production = 75% of the contract, so call it an even $5 mill per

The 80-point season is irrelevant as it happened AFTER the contract was signed. He would be getting $8+ million this off-season.
Before his 70-point season, Pasta's career high was 27 points.
Agents aren't forced to use just one comparable.

 

[Mess]

The longer this takes the more likely the 2 sides are further apart then one would hope.

Willie likely seeking > $7 mil long-term and Leafs more likely to be trying to get him < $7 mil to match his comparables IMO.

 

[The Man with a Plan]

Again its still summer and people who are not in the know having a lot to say about nothing. There is no rush on Leafs end to get something done until they know they can land both Matthews and Marner within cap. Nylander is in no rush unless his agent gets what he is asking for. Bottom line like it or not Tavares Matty and Marner are the core and they must get done. Whatever is left is what Nylander gets. Hockey is a ruthless game but thats the short strokes here. They cant give the world to Nylander because it puts them in a bad spot to get something done with Matty and Marner. If Nylander cant live within the parameters of a deal that works for the Leafs then he can sit. The Leafs have lots of backup on the wings and they still need to fix the defence. Like I said Nylander can hold out if he wants it is not that big a deal to the team. They already have a highly skilled guy who can play with Matty and everyone knows it. If Nylander had a solid playoffs and had not pissed off Shanny then this might have been done by now as Leafs might have had more flexibility but he crapped the bed against Boston and he must accept responsibility for his play. This is why I expect a bridge deal to get done here giving Nylander a chance to prove himself in the playoffs. He is a young guy and he can still recover next season. By the way you might also be surprised when Matthews gets his deal too because his playoff performance also pissed off Shanny but to a lesser degree but thats likely next summer and all will be forgotten if Matty steps up next year in playoffs. Also he was hurt for 2nd half of season and that may have impacted his play in playoffs. We will never know as he is keeping that stuff to himself. Clearly this is a complicated negotiation with many variables and those type of contracts take much longer to resolve. Time is on the Leafs side and the kids are young so it will be water under the bridge in the long run.

Are you serious?
Laughable that you sit there and write about Shanny being pissed off at Willie and then Auston...

You are seriously just making things up now. Nowhere has Shanny said to anyone that he's pissed at two of our young star core members. In any way shape or form.

But then again it's easier for #PotatoNation members to make up things like Shanny and Dubas being pissed off at players then it is to realize that things take time and that the cone of silence has not been lifted. This is how business gets done here now.

 

[Trapper]

And the seasons before that?

Comparison of 3 players (same age, same draft year):
2014-15
Nylander (did not play in NHL)
Pastrnak: 46 games, 10 goals - 17 assists = 27 points
Ehlers: (did not play in NHL)

2015-16
Nylander: 22 games, 6 goals - 7 assists = 13 points
Pastrnak: 51 games, 15 goals - 11 assists = 26 points
Ehlers: 72 games, 15 goals - 23 assists = 38 points

2016-17
Nylander: 81 games, 22 goals - 39 assists = 61 points
Pastrnak: 75 games, 34 goals - 36 assists = 70 points
Ehlers: 82 games, 25 goals - 39 assists = 64 points

2017-18
Nylander: 82 games, 20 goals - 41 assists = 61 points
Pastrnak: 82 games, 35 goals - 45 assists = 80 points
Ehlers: 82 games, 29 goals - 31 assists = 60 points

 

[Svanstrom]

But I think his numbers (given 1st line and pp time) are pretty
mediocre.

Only about 5 or 6 wingers of his age or younger had better PPG than William Nylander. Given that his average TOI time is just over 16 min, I would not call that mediocre.
If Nylander scores as many PP point next season as he did in 2016-2017 season his number will have a good chance to be a lot closer to 1 PPG.

 

[Trapper]

Only about 5 or 6 wingers of his age or younger had better PPG than William Nylander. Given that his average TOI time is just over 16 min, I would not call that mediocre.
If Nylander scores as many PP point next season as he did in 2016-2017 season his number will have a good chance to be a lot closer to 1 PPG.

Again, judging by where Nylander sits in terms of other players that just signed, I would say 6.3 million per year is a very good offer.
Ehlers signed for 6, Pastrnak signed for 6.66. At this time, Pastrnak has pulled away as the better winger of the 3. I don't equate a million dollars (between when Ehlers/Pastrnak signed and Nylander's time) as the inflation bench mark either. The 6/6.3 mark is right where Nylander lies as a back to back 60 point winger.

 

[Erndog]

34 goal season, 12 more than Nylander
70 points, 9 more than Nylander
0.93 ppg, vs 0.75 for Nylander

They are/were the same age.

UP UNTIL PASTA'S CONTRACT WAS SIGNED:

Pastrnak (career): 172 games played, 59 goals, 64 assists, 123 points. PPG = 0.715

Anything that happened after the contract was signed is irrelevant. This should not have to be stated.

WILLY UP UNTIL NOW:

Nylander (career): 185 games played, 48 goals, 87 assists, 135 points. PPG = 0.729


Does this not resonate with you? Is this really that tough to explain or understand?

 

[PromisedLand]

Comparison of 3 players (same age, same draft year):
2014-15
Nylander (did not play in NHL)
Pastrnak: 46 games, 10 goals - 17 assists = 27 points
Ehlers: (did not play in NHL)

2015-16
Nylander: 22 games, 6 goals - 7 assists = 13 points
Pastrnak: 51 games, 15 goals - 11 assists = 26 points
Ehlers: 72 games, 15 goals - 23 assists = 38 points

2016-17
Nylander: 81 games, 22 goals - 39 assists = 61 points
Pastrnak: 75 games, 34 goals - 36 assists = 70 points
Ehlers: 82 games, 25 goals - 39 assists = 64 points

2017-18
Nylander: 82 games, 20 goals - 41 assists = 61 points
Pastrnak: 82 games, 35 goals - 45 assists = 80 points
Ehlers: 82 games, 29 goals - 31 assists = 60 points

This is a prime example why Nylander's contract should look similar to Pastrnak and Ehlers

 

[MyBudJT]

They are/were the same age.

UP UNTIL PASTA'S CONTRACT WAS SIGNED:

Pastrnak (career): 172 games played, 59 goals, 64 assists, 123 points. PPG = 0.715

Anything that happened after the contract was signed is irrelevant. This should not have to be stated.

WILLY UP UNTIL NOW:

Nylander (career): 185 games played, 48 goals, 87 assists, 135 points. PPG = 0.729


Does this not resonate with you? Is this really that tough to explain or understand?

Still different scenarios... The fact Pastrnak was younger when he resigned should not be understated.


I think the Leafs are going to start with internal comparisons. Nylander is going to have a tough time saying he deserves 1.5 mil more than Rielly and 2 mil more than Kadri on. 6 year term. If we sign him for 7 or 8 yrs, then the Leafs may be more whiling.

 

[Liminality]

Again, judging by where Nylander sits in terms of other players that just signed, I would say 6.3 million per year is a very good offer.
Ehlers signed for 6, Pastrnak signed for 6.66. At this time, Pastrnak has pulled away as the better winger of the 3. I don't equate a million dollars (between when Ehlers/Pastrnak signed and Nylander's time) as the inflation bench mark either. The 6/6.3 mark is right where Nylander lies as a back to back 60 point winger.

Is that accounting for the cap hit % difference? Cause 6.3m is 8.4% of 75m which equals 6.67m under a 79.5m cap.

 

[MyBudJT]

This is a prime example why Nylander's contract should look similar to Pastrnak and Ehlers

I would say it’s a reason why it should be slightly less, since both Ehlers and Pastrnak had better seasons. Ehlers was very close though.

 

[PromisedLand]

I would say it’s a reason why it should be slightly less, since both Ehlers and Pastrnak had better seasons. Ehlers was very close though.

gotta factor in the inflation and salary cap increase so around 7 to 7.5 per is very reasonable IMO

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Not true I think most of us truly appreciate him. The truth hurts. The older I get the more the truth comes into focus. I really love watching Nylanders skill. When he brings his A game and competes he is a real force. But again truth comes into focus in playoffs when he chose not to compete. Like I said it will all be water under the bridge if next playoffs he brings his A game. But right now he knows the Leafs position and he has to accept the truth. Folks a bridge deal is going to get done here but it will take some time and may even require a holdout. Dubie knows the blueprint and his salary cap people know what it takes to make it all work. When all is said and done my opinion is Matty will wait to next summer and let his playoff run speak for him. Marner may get a long term deal done this summer I'd put it at slightly better than 50/50. The Leafs were happy with his playoff compete and plan to play him with Tavares so thats why I feel this way.

I just love your posts.

 

[MyBudJT]

gotta factor in the inflation and salary cap increase so around 7 to 7.5 per is very reasonable IMO

You also have to factor in that if you want to compete with the NAS and the TBL of the league, you’re going to have to get your players to sign Team friendly deals.

 

[56 Years No Cup]

Are you serious?
Laughable that you sit there and write about Shanny being pissed off at Willie and then Auston...

You are seriously just making things up now. Nowhere has Shanny said to anyone that he's pissed at two of our young star core members. In any way shape or form.

But then again it's easier for #PotatoNation members to make up things like Shanny and Dubas being pissed off at players then it is to realize that things take time and that the cone of silence has not been lifted. This is how business gets done here now.

Are you connected to the Leafs' Front Office?

 

[Trapper]

Is that accounting for the cap hit % difference? Cause 6.3m is 8.4% of 75m which equals 6.67m under a 79.5m cap.

No I used only dollars to put Nylander between Ehlers and Pastrnak.
I don't know how management has allocated % of cap so I only stick to the salary range at present.
They could have players at different percentages.

 

[MyBudJT]

There is no doubt in my mind that some NHL teams would give Nylander top dollar (7+ mil). But The best teams in the League tend to get their top players on team friendly deals...

 

[diceman934]

They are/were the same age.

UP UNTIL PASTA'S CONTRACT WAS SIGNED:

Pastrnak (career): 172 games played, 59 goals, 64 assists, 123 points. PPG = 0.715

Anything that happened after the contract was signed is irrelevant. This should not have to be stated.

WILLY UP UNTIL NOW:

Nylander (career): 185 games played, 48 goals, 87 assists, 135 points. PPG = 0.729


Does this not resonate with you? Is this really that tough to explain or understand?

So did suddenly Pasternak age a year after he signed his contract as that is what you are attempting to sell.
Same age comparison is relevant the above is not as Willy was not playing in the NHL as a 18 year old rookie and omitting last season to suit a narrative is misleading and wrong.



He is not worth the same money. When you compare apples to apples.

 

[Erndog]

So did suddenly Pasternak age a year after he signed his contract as that is what you are attempting to sell.
Same age comparison is relevant the above is not as Willy was not playing in the NHL as a 18 year old rookie and omitting last season to suit a narrative is misleading and wrong.

You are factoring in a season (last yr) that was not actually factored into the contract that was signed.

Edit: What we are doing, and discussing/debating is exactly what both Nylanders camp and Dubas are doing. So there is technically no right or wrong answer here, just various degrees and an eventual compromise somewhere.

 

[Mess]

There is no doubt in my mind that some NHL teams would give Nylander top dollar (7+ mil). But The best teams in the League tend to get their top players on team friendly deals...

Its important the Leafs get their key players on team friendly deals now also as JT is now #2 highest AAV in the league, so unless there are going to be cap savings elsewhere this could become a problem real quick. IMO

 

[Erndog]

Its important the Leafs get their key players on team friendly deals now also as JT is now #2 highest AAV in the league, so unless there are going to be cap savings elsewhere this could become a problem real quick. IMO

Re:

- Kadri, Nazem
- Rielly, Morgan
- Andersen, Freddy (say what you will, but many teams have goalies $6M+)