Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[Liminality]

You are factoring in a season (last yr) that was not actually factored into the contract that was signed.

Edit: What we are doing, and discussing/debating is exactly what both Nylanders camp and Dubas are doing. So there is technically no right or wrong answer here, just various degrees and an eventual compromise somewhere.

I think everyone essentially agrees that Nylander should get something around 6m. Some on the lower end and some on the higher end for different reasons and depending on how many years.

 

[MyBudJT]

Re:

- Kadri, Nazem
- Rielly, Morgan
- Andersen, Freddy (say what you will, but many teams have goalies $6M+)

This. JT was a unique case and a UFA. Rest were RFAs

 

[PromisedLand]

You also have to factor in that if you want to compete with the NAS and the TBL of the league, you’re going to have to get your players to sign Team friendly deals.

11 million for Tavares isn't as "team friendly" as it is made out to be. he is the 2nd highest cap hit after McDavid; and has not produced anything close to McDavid numbers.

Second, 7 million is a fair deal for both the Leafs and Nylander. If you think Nylander is going to be signed for anything less than 6M for long term it is not happening.

 

[Mess]

Re:

- Kadri, Nazem
- Rielly, Morgan
- Andersen, Freddy (say what you will, but many teams have goalies $6M+)

Its looking like Leafs top 3 of JT, AM and MM are going to occupy the highest combined AAV % of any teams cap particularly all the contending teams.

Then sign Nylander.

Leafs team cup competitiveness will tied greatly to these upcoming signings.

Team friendly discounts are going to be needed to keep the competitive balance in tact for Leafs or their depth will be greatly tested.

 

[Erndog]

Its looking like Leafs top 3 of JT, AM and MM are going to occupy the highest combined AAV % of any teams cap particularly all the contending teams..

Yes, for the next few years that's likely what its going to look like.

Eventually, with cap increases and new deals signed the Leafs will have their core locked into "reasonable" deals. Will take a few years though. It's a cycle, you of all people understand that.

 

[MyBudJT]

11 million for Tavares isn't as "team friendly" as it is made out to be. he is the 2nd highest cap hit after McDavid; and has not produced anything close to McDavid numbers.

Second, 7 million is a fair deal for both the Leafs and Nylander. If you think Nylander is going to be signed for anything less than 6M for long term it is not happening.

First - look at the post above your post

Second - 7 mil is not fair for the leafs... it’s top dollar, and to remain competitive, we can’t give out top dollar to our rfas.

 

[diceman934]

11 million for Tavares isn't as "team friendly" as it is made out to be. he is the 2nd highest cap hit after McDavid; and has not produced anything close to McDavid numbers.

Second, 7 million is a fair deal for both the Leafs and Nylander. If you think Nylander is going to be signed for anything less than 6M for long term it is not happening.

JT contract was team friendly as he was offered more money by the Islanders and the Sharks. It is the true definition of team friendly as he could have went elsewhere for more. Connor McDavid was over paid by a bad management group that followed it up with another over payment contract. RFA vs UFA is a vast difference

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Its important the Leafs get their key players on team friendly deals now also as JT is now #2 highest AAV in the league, so unless there are going to be cap savings elsewhere this could become a problem real quick. IMO

In light of what has been written so frequently by so many here, this is something that I have wondered about. It seems that the feedback is often we won't have any cap problems ever, not in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years or X years.

The thinking seems to be that all the other teams all lacked true (superb) cap experts and the strongest management team, so hence, they ultimately found themselves with cap issues.

But, it is a little odd to think that somehow we will avoid all cap issues forever even though all teams so far, even the most successful cup winning ones have not.

Maybe I am mistaken and have categorized this sentiment incorrectly, but I wonder what the disconnect here is, if there is one? Comments and opinions are most welcome. It just seems a little perplexing.

 

[diceman934]

You are factoring in a season (last yr) that was not actually factored into the contract that was signed.

Edit: What we are doing, and discussing/debating is exactly what both Nylanders camp and Dubas are doing. So there is technically no right or wrong answer here, just various degrees and an eventual compromise somewhere.

When comparing players of the same age you have to make a full comparison as to do otherwise is just a attemp to distort the facts

 

[Mess]

Yes, for the next few years that's likely what its going to look like.

Eventually, with cap increases and new deals signed the Leafs will have their core locked into "reasonable" deals. Will take a few years though. It's a cycle, you of all people understand that.

Going to take more then a few years against some teams.

TB: (Top team in the East)
Stamkos $8.5 mil X 6 years remaining
Kucherov $9.5 mil X 8 years
Hedman $7.88 mil X 7 years

Total $ 25.88 mil combined for the next 6 years minimum)

Leafs:
Tavares $11 mil X 7 years
Matthews $ ??
Marner $ ??
+
Nylander $ ?? (If Leafs overpay Nylander its only going to act as a base/floor to drive AM and MM even higher thereafter.

JT and AM could very well = $22 mil combined, without AM and WN.

It's a cycle alright, you of all people understand that. But this isn't going to change anytime soon in Leafs favour, which also needs to be understood as well..

When do you see this cycle favouring the Leafs in 7 years from now when Stamkos is up again?

 

[luvdahattymatty]

Heh Man With a Plan. Gramps here. I would venture to guess you don't know Shanny? Unlike you I would never be presumptuous enough to make your comments without first asking. I have known Shanny since he was a twinkle in Rose's eye. Donal (RIP buddy) and I both owned homes on Hillcrest and smelled more Campbell Soup than we would ever care to remember. I coached Shanny for 3 years after my minor league playing career and he and my son are still friends. If i tell you Shanny was not pleased with Nylanders play in playoffs i did not say it for shits and giggles. Now both he and I like Nylander as a player so dont misinterpret what I am saying here. All I am saying was no one was happy with his playoff performance. I think even Willy would probably say so if he was being 100% honest. I will find out and let you know. One of my grandsons played junior with Alex so I will find out eventually. The hockey world in toronto is very very small.

 

[Mess]

In light of what has been written so frequently by so many here, this is something that I have wondered about. It seems that the feedback is often we won't have any cap problems ever, not in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years or X years.

The thinking seems to be that all the other teams all lacked true (superb) cap experts and the strongest management team, so hence, they ultimately found themselves with cap issues.

But, it is a little odd to think that somehow we will avoid all cap issues forever even though all teams so far, even the most successful cup winning ones have not.

Maybe I am mistaken and have categorized this sentiment incorrectly, but I wonder what the disconnect here is, if there is one? Comments and opinions are most welcome. It just seems a little perplexing.

I agree with you fully.

To me it seems like the general position taken by many in these cap matter discussions appears to be.

Hear no Evil, See no Evil, Speak no Evil and Admit no Evil.

Perhaps once all the Leafs 3 Amigos are signed with hindsight it might appear clearer as opposed to using foresight to see the potential Evil coming in terms legitimate Cap concerns and team competitiveness.

I'm personally holding out hope that Leafs can get some cap friendly deals to offset what appears to be a pending tipping point cap problem to remain Cup competitive.

 

[Notsince67]

You also have to factor in that if you want to compete with the NAS and the TBL of the league, you’re going to have to get your players to sign Team friendly deals.

This is an important point.
If Tavares took a discount, one would imagine that everyone should take a discount.
Paying Nylander what Pasta got is an overpay let alone inflation adjusted pasta. He didn't get Pasta numbers. Now Pasta over performed his contract and it is considered a great deal. Good on the Bruins but Pasta got to play with 2 of the best forwards in the game.
There are no more hypothetical performance scenarios to be considered with Nylander. He elected to wait until now to see what he could get. His ELC is done. He deserves Ehlers contract 6MM x 7 years. The inflation can be part of his discount.

Now for every person who has their nose out of joint with Marner wanting more money, Marner has yet to play out his ELC. He knows he can play better that the whole of last year combined because he did in the latter part of the year. Why would he sign at close to the same numbers? If he puts up more than 90 points next year he is due for a win fall. If he doesn't the same process given to Nylander will apply and a discount will be expected.
Here is the question. What is the comparable to a player who posts numbers like 61, 69, 98 vs 61, 69, 90? If the numbers we are discussing are unpalatable either way, the leafs had better find a number that would incent Marner to sign early...or they can take a risk and do nothing. People should not cry if the discount begins from the 9.5 to 10MM mark....and it wont be a lot more than Nylander took.
It just seems that the Nylander fans want to fit his salary close to Marner's. IMO, that only happens if they wait a year to sign Marner and he regresses from Last year's numbers.

 

[Menzinger]

A couple things kept the Pasta dealnlower than it should be - only 6 years in length got him to UFA sooner than others (ie Elhers) and only one highs coring season. Bruins management got very lucky signing him when they did.

I suspect Nylander will end up just below that, at around 6.5 per. Though he can end up anywhere in the 6-7 mil range depending on the particulars of the contract.

 

[Drew311]

11 million for Tavares isn't as "team friendly" as it is made out to be. he is the 2nd highest cap hit after McDavid; and has not produced anything close to McDavid numbers.

Second, 7 million is a fair deal for both the Leafs and Nylander. If you think Nylander is going to be signed for anything less than 6M for long term it is not happening.

I agree 11M is not a team friendly deal and not indicative of his production in the league, but to be fair to Tavares, he's been surrounded by players his entire career that needed him to elevate their games (i.e. Moulson, Okposo, Bailey, Lee). So I don't think we've seen the best out of Tavares yet, considering he's never had a linemate that makes him appreciably better. Having players like Marner, Matthews (on the PP) and Nylander around him will help to elevate his game and take the pressure off of him, especially as he ages and the kids enter their respective primes.

 

[rent free]

JT contract was team friendly as he was offered more money by the Islanders and the Sharks. It is the true definition of team friendly as he could have went elsewhere for more. Connor McDavid was over paid by a bad management group that followed it up with another over payment contract. RFA vs UFA is a vast difference

jt's contract is not cap friendly at all. its the 2nd highest cap in the league and the highest on the leafs by far. another thing that you got incorrect is saying mcdavid us overpaid. mcdavid is underpaid. he is worth more than 12.5 million dollars a season.

 

[Drew311]

A couple things kept the Pasta dealnlower than it should be - only 6 years in length got him to UFA sooner than others (ie Elhers) and only one highs coring season. Bruins management got very lucky signing him when they did.

I suspect Nylander will end up just below that, at around 6.5 per. Though he can end up anywhere in the 6-7 mil range depending on the particulars of the contract.

Bruins management didn't get lucky, they played hardball and Pasta took the deal because he didn't have any other choice (expect sit out, which never benefits the player in the end). Exactly the route Leafs management should and I think will take with Nylander.

 

[Notsince67]

Going to take more then a few years against some teams.

TB: (Top team in the East)
Stamkos $8.5 mil X 6 years remaining
Kucherov $9.5 mil X 8 years
Hedman $7.88 mil X 7 years

Total $ 25.88 mil combined for the next 6 years minimum)

Leafs:
Tavares $11 mil X 7 years
Matthews $ ??
Marner $ ??
+
Nylander $ ?? (If Leafs overpay Nylander its only going to act as a base/floor to drive AM and MM even higher thereafter.

JT and AM could very well = $22 mil combined, without AM and WN.

It's a cycle alright, you of all people understand that. But this isn't going to change anytime soon in Leafs favour, which also needs to be understood as well..

When do you see this cycle favouring the Leafs in 7 years from now when Stamkos is up again?

It will happen earlier than that. Dahlin will likely break the bank when his ELC is up.

 

[ZEBROA]

Heh Man With a Plan. Gramps here. I would venture to guess you don't know Shanny? Unlike you I would never be presumptuous enough to make your comments without first asking. I have known Shanny since he was a twinkle in Rose's eye. Donal (RIP buddy) and I both owned homes on Hillcrest and smelled more Campbell Soup than we would ever care to remember. I coached Shanny for 3 years after my minor league playing career and he and my son are still friends. If i tell you Shanny was not pleased with Nylanders play in playoffs i did not say it for ****s and giggles. Now both he and I like Nylander as a player so dont misinterpret what I am saying here. All I am saying was no one was happy with his playoff performance. I think even Willy would probably say so if he was being 100% honest. I will find out and let you know. One of my grandsons played junior with Alex so I will find out eventually. The hockey world in toronto is very very small.

When both Nylander and Matthews was in a slump. Did he have any sugestions on how to deal with that? Its Babs job, but he could have ideas anyway. My hope is that it will be harder to shut a line down this season, when there is two first lines.

 

[Notsince67]

Heh Man With a Plan. Gramps here. I would venture to guess you don't know Shanny? Unlike you I would never be presumptuous enough to make your comments without first asking. I have known Shanny since he was a twinkle in Rose's eye. Donal (RIP buddy) and I both owned homes on Hillcrest and smelled more Campbell Soup than we would ever care to remember. I coached Shanny for 3 years after my minor league playing career and he and my son are still friends. If i tell you Shanny was not pleased with Nylanders play in playoffs i did not say it for ****s and giggles. Now both he and I like Nylander as a player so dont misinterpret what I am saying here. All I am saying was no one was happy with his playoff performance. I think even Willy would probably say so if he was being 100% honest. I will find out and let you know. One of my grandsons played junior with Alex so I will find out eventually. The hockey world in toronto is very very small.

You coached in Faustina?

 

[Walshy7]

no one actually believed "gramps" son was friends with JT right? it was just a bit of a fun thing to do while we waited and hoped JT would sign.

hell I bet he isn't even a grandpa, such is the world today

 

[Stephen]

I would be comfortable locking him into something a shade under to up to $7 million, but the mid $6 million range would be ideal. The trouble is Marner. There seems to be an implication that he's closer to Matthews than Nylander, but I disagree with this on a fundamental level in terms of what a scoring winger can do for you as well as the narrow gap between 29 and 16. If Marner gets dragged up because of Matthews, and Nylander dragged up because of Marner, that would create a ton of headaches that shouldn't be there.

 

[IBeL34f]

In light of what has been written so frequently by so many here, this is something that I have wondered about. It seems that the feedback is often we won't have any cap problems ever, not in 1 year, 2 years, 3 years or X years.

The thinking seems to be that all the other teams all lacked true (superb) cap experts and the strongest management team, so hence, they ultimately found themselves with cap issues.

But, it is a little odd to think that somehow we will avoid all cap issues forever even though all teams so far, even the most successful cup winning ones have not.

Maybe I am mistaken and have categorized this sentiment incorrectly, but I wonder what the disconnect here is, if there is one? Comments and opinions are most welcome. It just seems a little perplexing.

I agree with you fully.

To me it seems like the general position taken by many in these cap matter discussions appears to be.

Hear no Evil, See no Evil, Speak no Evil and Admit no Evil.

Perhaps once all the Leafs 3 Amigos are signed with hindsight it might appear clearer as opposed to using foresight to see the potential Evil coming in terms legitimate Cap concerns and team competitiveness.

I'm personally holding out hope that Leafs can get some cap friendly deals to offset what appears to be a pending tipping point cap problem to remain Cup competitive.

Those concerned about the Leafs cap issues as a result of having a few star contracts on our roster should take a look at our long-term veteran contracts in the $4/5/6M range relative to the rest of the League, and you will start to see why most Leafs fans aren't all that worried.
The Leafs only have Marleau, Gardiner, Zaitsev, Rielly, and Kadri in that range now, and the latter 2 are steals for the next 4 years, while the former 2 are expiring in the near future, and the remainder is admittedly a question mark right now (though I have faith in Z's ability to be a solid top-4 guy for us moving forward).
The Leafs also have a veritable bounty of depth pieces and prospects on the blueline, and a solid pipeline of wingers as well - As long as they continue to draft and develop with speed, skill and smarts in mind, we have everything we need to keep the cupboards stocked while cycling through middle-tier pieces, as all sustainably good teams must do.
Paying your stars is not where many teams will end up running into cap trouble (unless you overpay, of course), but those middle-tier contracts for players who are not core assets are the ones that can really bite you in the ass.
With the cap structure that we currently have in place, there really isn't any reason why we should lose any player more valuable than Connor Brown due to cap purposes over the next few years. (Obviously I can't project what guys like Johnsson, Kapanen, Dermott, Liljegren or Sandin will make once they've proven themselves at the NHL level, but having more talent than you are able to afford is better than the alternative, and there's several years of hockey and development that likely needs to happen before we ever get to that point. If we draft and develop well, then the hope is that you can replace Brown with an NHL-ready Bracco or Grundstrom, and repeat the process as necessary.)
Much scarier than losing talent due to cap reasons is not being able to replace that lost talent - Until I see that we're stuck losing talent that we have no hope of replacing, I'm certainly not going to stress out about it.

Luckily for us, our blueline looks to be quite cheap for the foreseeable future, even though we should still see tons of in-house improvement in that regard over that time.

Outside of the looming crunch in 2019/20 (which we could still navigate without a scratch, if the cap raises ~$4-5M again this year), we really do seem to be in an excellent situation cap-wise moving forward, especially if the Seattle expansion has a similar effect as the Vegas one did.

Let's all hope Dubas stays away from the Okposos and Erikssons of the world, and sticks to a sustainable draft and develop approach that allows us to surround our core players with cheap talent and RFAs. As long as we can do that, there's really no reason for anyone to be worried or concerned about our ability to pay and keep our stars.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The Leafs also have a veritable bounty of depth pieces and prospects on the blueline, and a solid pipeline of wingers as well - As long as they continue to draft and develop with speed, skill and smarts in mind, we have everything we need to keep the cupboards stocked while cycling through middle-tier pieces, as all sustainably good teams must do.

Let's all hope Dubas stays away from ...... and sticks to a sustainable draft and develop approach that allows us to surround our core players with cheap talent and RFAs. As long as we can do that, there's really no reason for anyone to be worried or concerned about our ability to pay and keep our stars.

So, have all these other teams not discovered or latched on to the idea of drafting and finding talented ELCs to stock the cupboards so to speak and to manage the cap accordingly? This seems to be an obvious enough idea for it to escape all of these other teams. Have all the other teams reduced their drafting to such an extent that they don't have the depth of young talent?

I'm still a little confused. Do we believe that we invented this whole approach and are the first team to implement it?

 

[Jack Bauer]

I agree with you fully.

To me it seems like the general position taken by many in these cap matter discussions appears to be.

Hear no Evil, See no Evil, Speak no Evil and Admit no Evil.

Perhaps once all the Leafs 3 Amigos are signed with hindsight it might appear clearer as opposed to using foresight to see the potential Evil coming in terms legitimate Cap concerns and team competitiveness.

I'm personally holding out hope that Leafs can get some cap friendly deals to offset what appears to be a pending tipping point cap problem to remain Cup competitive.

People take that position because there's no reason not to take it.

I'm convinced people spend more time watching the salary cap then they do the sport these days.

We have $ 16mil in cap space today with Horton on the roster and need to sign 1 of the big 3 which leaves almost $10mil to cover another one AFTER this season meaning we can really load up at the deadline if we want to.

Next off-season we use our depth in youth and picks to dump Marleau and there's the final big 4 member pretty much signed after the cap increases again.

If this cap crunch isn't costing us our primary veterans and is covered by older players retiring and Horton's disappearing from the cap in 2020 then isn't that a normal cap situation?

For all this cap crunch talk the biggest crunch will be getting from July 2019 to October 2019 as once that season starts Horton's LTIR'd for the final time and we're getting near a $86-$90mil cap by the summer of 2020.

The only issue we will have after 2018-19 is bringing in another upper echelon salary for the long term. That's an awful long ways away to be worrying about a situation that may never be needed and may never present itself anyway due to the changes between now and then.

There's no team in the league who can afford to keep a 23 man roster together. We appear set with our big guys having lots of money to share and our middle tier guys being locked up at a $5mil or $2.2mil or so price point.

Add in 2-3 Tyler Ennis' type of guys for 4th line/#6dman duty and your bottom 4 guys on your roster are making like $2.5 combined. Give $40mil to the big 4 and that's 8 guys making $42mil. Leaving $42mil for 13-14 players. Hard to see a cap crunch there. Unless you really want to make one for yourself. Which likely means you're still a contender which in reality is the only goal. There's zero incentive for not spending to 100% of the salary cap for a franchise like this.