Speculation: Nylander contract discussion

[hullsy47]

rumor has it ,nylander is asking more per year than kadri ..
kadri is a second line center on most teams ,
the leafs ,have a salary structure in place ,I think nylander bridges at 5.5 x 3

 

[Liminality]

rumor has it ,nylander is asking more per year than kadri ..
kadri is a second line center on most teams ,
the leafs ,have a salary structure in place ,I think nylander bridges at 5.5 x 3

Least surprising thing I've heard all offseason.

 

[Walshy7]

rumor has it ,nylander is asking more per year than kadri ..
kadri is a second line center on most teams ,
the leafs ,have a salary structure in place ,I think nylander bridges at 5.5 x 3

Wow what insider info this is. So with that pay structure marner comimgnin under kadri too will be a massive help, he can’t get paid more than kadri because marner is only a winger and therefore can’t be paid more than a 2C on most teams (not this team by the way)

 

[hullsy47]

Wow what insider info this is. So with that pay structure marner comimgnin under kadri too will be a massive help, he can’t get paid more than kadri because marner is only a winger and therefore can’t be paid more than a 2C on most teams (not this team by the way)

marner can carry a line ....nylander isn't a center ,im just saying don't be surprised if nylander bridges in somewhere between kadri and larkin .
these 8 mill a year proposals are ludicrous ,but if he gets offer sheeted" then so be it ,
and where I heard this rumor was at a junior b camp .
not everyone thinks nylander will be as good as tavaras ,marner or Mathews ,so lets just leave it at that .
kadri is a good hockey player ,and has been for awhile .

 

[Menzinger]

rumor has it ,nylander is asking more per year than kadri ..
kadri is a second line center on most teams ,
the leafs ,have a salary structure in place ,I think nylander bridges at 5.5 x 3

All relevant contract comparisons have him making more money than Kadri, this shouldn’t be any surprise.

Nylander put up as many points as a rookie as Kadri did during his best season so far...

 

[Walshy7]

marner can carry a line ....nylander isn't a center ,im just saying don't be surprised if nylander bridges in somewhere between kadri and larkin .
these 8 mill a year proposals are ludicrous ,but if he gets offer sheeted" then so be it ,
and where I heard this rumor was at a junior b camp .
not everyone thinks nylander will be as good as tavaras ,marner or Mathews ,so lets just leave it at that .
kadri is a good hockey player ,and has been for awhile .

No where is there proof nylander is asking for $8m it is being spouted by the anti nylander leaf supporters in order to tear him down a bit. I am quite aware nylander isn’t a center I was using tor logic as to point out why marner would be underpaid too. Marner may well be able to run a line but Jt will be running his line so its kind of irrelevant marner running being able to run a line.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

All relevant contract comparisons have him making more money than Kadri, this shouldn’t be any surprise.

Nylander put up as many points as a rookie as Kadri did during his best season so far...

Was Kadri ever given the first line minutes/PP time with a star like Matthews that Nylander had on his rookie year?

 

[Menzinger]

Was Kadri ever given the first line minutes/PP time with a star like Matthews that Nylander had on his rookie year?

No - but that also doesn’t change the fact that Kadri hadn’t topped 50 points when he signed his current contract (and had just came off a 39 point season).

It’s not a good comparison.

 

[IPS]

Nylander's contract has zero relevance to what Kadri is being paid. His comparables are Ehlers, Pastrnak, and Larkin.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Nylander's contract has zero relevance to what Kadri is being paid. His comparables are Ehlers, Pastrnak, and Larkin.

????????

Pasternak got 35 goals and 80 points last year.

What are you talking about?

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

????????

Pasternak got 35 goals and 80 points last year.

What are you talking about?

What are you talking about? Look at the season he had when he signed his contract

 

[Throw More Waffles]

What are you talking about? Look at the season he had when he signed his contract

My bad.
Thought he was saying Nylander was comparable to Pasternak last year.

Though Pasternak 34 goal year is still not exactly comparable to Nylander.

 

[hullsy47]

Nylander's contract has zero relevance to what Kadri is being paid. His comparables are Ehlers, Pastrnak, and Larkin.

hes the 4th best forward so maybe in pasternaks case ,,,but larkin is the no 1 guy ,ehlers is no 2
don't worry it ll work out in the leafs favour 1 way or another

 

[Sypher04]

Pastrnak's last year and the year before are extremely similar production wise. Slight higher goal pace in contract year, slightly higher point per game last season

Either way I don't see Pastrnak as Nylander's comparable. Nylander scored 20 goals in his final ELC year. Pastrnak scored 34 and was on pace for 37.

It's very clearly Ehlers.

 

[A1LeafNation]

7 years 6m per. Done.

 

[Byron Bitz]

5.5 x 7 years, bonus heavy lockout proof

 

[Menzinger]

Pastrnak's last year and the year before are extremely similar production wise. Slight higher goal pace in contract year, slightly higher point per game last season

Either way I don't see Pastrnak as Nylander's comparable. Nylander scored 20 goals in his final ELC year. Pastrnak scored 34 and was on pace for 37.

It's very clearly Ehlers.

Though Pasta only has 1 high scoring season when he signed that deal - Nylander will have 2. And Pasta likely took a slight discount for getting 6 years (and thisbquicker to full UFA status) - if he had signed a 7 year deal like Elhers he likely would have made 7 million per

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Either way I don't see Pastrnak as Nylander's comparable.

Nylander has skills but Pastrnak is a tremendous asset to Boston. I think most GMs would pay more for Pastrnak than Nylander.

Nice pickup by Boston at 25.
Kapanen was drafted higher

 

[Liminality]

Nylander has skills but Pastrnak is a tremendous asset to Boston. I think most GMs would pay more for Pastrnak than Nylander.

Nice pickup by Boston at 25.
Kapanen was drafted higher

You can't really compare players after their contract has signed imo, you've got to use the stats of what they did before that contract.

Pastrnak had these stats when he signed his contract on Sept 14th, 2017.

2014-15
NHL 46gp 10g 17a 27p
AHL 25gp 11g 17a 28p

2015-16
NHL 51gp 15g 11a 26p
AHL 3gp 1g 3a 4p

2016-17
NHL 75gp 34g 36a 70p

Total
AHL 28gp 12g 21a 34p
NHL 172gp 59g 64a 123p

Nylander has these stats currently for his contract negotiations

2014-15
AHL 37gp 14g 18a 32p

2015-16
AHL 38gp 18g 27a 45p
NHL 22gp 6g 7a 13p

2016-17
NHL 81gp 22g 39a 61p

2017-18
NHL 82gp 20g 41a 61p

Total
AHL 75gp 32g 45a 77p
NHL 185gp 48g 87a 135p

Nylander stayed in the AHL for longer but has stayed around Pasternak's average point total in the NHL at the time of their potential signings. Even though they are the same age, Boston signed Pastrnak early and banked on him continuing his breakout season. It worked out in the end for them obviously. I think Nylander's contract should be comparable to Pastrnak's contract as I think Nylander has the potential to break out like Pasternak has. Could be anywhere from 6-7m imo.

 

[Sypher04]

I'm prepared for anything between 6 and 7 million, but I do think is should be in the lower half of the 6's even if it reaches to 8 years.

I still don't think they compare well though. As you mentioned, Nylander has been consistent since coming in, while Pastrnak had 2 seasons lower points with less opportunity, then broke out in his final ELC year to a level Nylander hasn't come close to yet. Again I point to the fact that he was nearly on pace to double Nylander's goal production (contract year vs contract year)

I just don't see a lot in common

 

[justafan22]

I'll predict 7 x 6.7 on september 15th or so

 

[Liminality]

I'm prepared for anything between 6 and 7 million, but I do think is should be in the lower half of the 6's even if it reaches to 8 years.

I still don't think they compare well though. As you mentioned, Nylander has been consistent since coming in, while Pastrnak had 2 seasons lower points with less opportunity, then broke out in his final ELC year to a level Nylander hasn't come close to yet. Again I point to the fact that he was nearly on pace to double Nylander's goal production (contract year vs contract year)

I just don't see a lot in common

Fair enough. Even if you compare him to Ehlers years leading up to his contract signing, Nylander has the upper hand there imo.

Ehlers before he signed his contract on Oct 4th 2017.

2014-15
QMJHL 51gp 37g 63a 100p

2015-16
NHL 72 15g 23a 38p

2016-17
NHL 82gp 25g 39a 64p

So more than Ehlers, less than Pastrnak for Nylander which could be fair.

6m cap hit in 2017 is 6.36m in 2018 with the 79.5m cap ceiling.
6.66m cap hit in 2017 is 7.06m in 2018.

Something between 6.36m-7.06m over 6-7 years. Maybe a little more for 8 years.

 

[Sypher04]

Fair enough. Even if you compare him to Ehlers years leading up to his contract signing, Nylander has the upper hand there imo.

Ehlers before he signed his contract on Oct 4th 2017.

2014-15
QMJHL 51gp 37g 63a 100p

2015-16
NHL 72 15g 23a 38p

2016-17
NHL 82gp 25g 39a 64p

So more than Ehlers, less than Pastrnak for Nylander which could be fair.

6m cap hit in 2017 is 6.36m in 2018 with the 79.5m cap ceiling.
6.66m cap hit in 2017 is 7.06m in 2018.

Something between 6.36m-7.06m over 6-7 years. Maybe a little more for 8 years.

The two things I'd say to that may be why the deal isn't done yet. I actually think you could argue Nylander should get less than that.

1) Ehlers reaches UFA 1 year earlier than Nylander does.
2) Ehlers has played 3 NHL seasons at the end of his ELC to Nylander's 2 plus, so Ehlers rookie season more directly compares to Nylander's first 22 game stint. That 22 vs Ehlers 72 that year, Nylander outpaced him 0.59 to 0.53... not a huge gap. Winnipeg had to reason to expect any significant regression in year 3.
3) While Ehlers averaged 20 goals through his first 2 seasons, and Nylander 21, Ehlers actually scored 25g to Nylander's 20 in the last year prior to extending showing a progression of 10 goals from year 1 to 2, which he ultimately continued to build on reaching 29 this past season
4) Cap inflation surely was factored into the Ehlers signing by his agency, so even if you assume it grew more than they anticiplated the actual non-factored increase is probably only a couple percent tbh

For these reasons, some more important than others, I actually think the exact same 7 years, 6m per contract is entirely fair.

 

[hullsy47]

If you think Marner is a core player, I dont know why you'd say Nylander isnt.

4th best forward are core is tavaras ,Mathews ,and marner

 

[diceman934]

You can't really compare players after their contract has signed imo, you've got to use the stats of what they did before that contract.

Pastrnak had these stats when he signed his contract on Sept 14th, 2017.

2014-15
NHL 46gp 10g 17a 27p
AHL 25gp 11g 17a 28p

2015-16
NHL 51gp 15g 11a 26p
AHL 3gp 1g 3a 4p

2016-17
NHL 75gp 34g 36a 70p

Total
AHL 28gp 12g 21a 34p
NHL 172gp 59g 64a 123p

Nylander has these stats currently for his contract negotiations

2014-15
AHL 37gp 14g 18a 32p

2015-16
AHL 38gp 18g 27a 45p
NHL 22gp 6g 7a 13p

2016-17
NHL 81gp 22g 39a 61p

2017-18
NHL 82gp 20g 41a 61p

Total
AHL 75gp 32g 45a 77p
NHL 185gp 48g 87a 135p

Nylander stayed in the AHL for longer but has stayed around Pasternak's average point total in the NHL at the time of their potential signings. Even though they are the same age, Boston signed Pastrnak early and banked on him continuing his breakout season. It worked out in the end for them obviously. I think Nylander's contract should be comparable to Pastrnak's contract as I think Nylander has the potential to break out like Pasternak has. Could be anywhere from 6-7m imo.

They are not comparable unless you count the stats of them both last season.

One signed early and the other choose not to. Pasternak signed as a year younger player and they are not on the same devolopment path. The stats are slanted in Nylander favour in a big way.