NYI holds the 5th pick; June 1st drop-dead date on conditional 1st – Part II

[Woodhouse]

I've thrown 2015 names out there before, but if you know little about the 2015 draft, look at a thread like this for instance. I'm not saying every bit of that analysis or rankings are in line with my early thoughts and/or consensus reports, but when you're debating 2014 #5 vs 2015 #__, you can at least get a feel for some of the pre-draft year notes and stats on the 2015 class and compare that to the 2012-13 years of your favorite 2014 targets. There are going to be a number of 'A' 2015 kids who will just continue with their development curve, some will level out, and others will rise from lesser grades. What I've always maintained with my 2015 preference is that I think the gap between the 2013 #5 and lets say 2015 #14-16 is going to be minimal enough that I'd prefer to take the chance that the Isles will still be a lottery team. Personally, I'd have to see more of a talent gap to be actually worried about this, as there's plenty of skill in 2015.

 

[1972]

When you see kids like Marner and Sprong who may have been their teams best players in the playoffs ranked outside of the top 10 you know it's going to be a good draft.

 

[Weltschmerz]

I really don't know what to think about Halak, he looked great at times and could be that big improvement the Islanders need.
On the other hand he is not a workhouse like Miller with multiple seasons of 60+ starts. And when Halak came close to 60 games played his SV% went down to .910.

 

[haseoke39]

Hes also just coming into his prime. It's not unusual for goaltenders to hit their zenith late twenties, early thirties.

Isles will be better next year with just this change. Wishful thinking from anyone who doesn't think so.

 

[SundherDome]

The goalie no one is talking is Anders Nilsson. He is said to be exploring going to Europe to play. A team looking for a decent back-up could make a pitch for a late round pick to keep him here.

 

[Woodhouse]

The goalie no one is talking is Anders Nilsson. He is said to be exploring going to Europe to play. A team looking for a decent back-up could make a pitch for a late round pick to keep him here.

I wouldn't call Nilsson a decent backup. He's pretty mediocre, poor even. His and Poulin's numbers were both in the bottom-10 among goalies with at least 10 GP this season. I don't think that's in high demand around the league.

 

[MagnumForce2]

I guess time will tell if Neuvirth was worth what appears to be an upper 3rd round pick in 2015 and a conditional 4th.

 

[La Cosa Nostra]

The Neuvirth trade was the only Murray move I didn't like at all. No reason we should have had to include a 3rd with Halak AND take a cap dump. Reto Barra returned a 2nd and Halak is 5x the goalie he is. It's not like Neuvirth has multiple years of us controlling his rights or that he has untapped potential. He's 26 and a UFA after this year. It's not a big deal really about the 3rd Moreso that its a 3rd + whatever the return we could have got for Halak if we moved him elsewhere. If Berra got a 2nd Halak should have too.

As for the Isles getting his rights, I'm hoping Halak pulls an Ehrhoff and refuses to sign with the Islanders. This is bad bad news for our 2015 1st, If they add a solid blue liner or two I can see that pick be in the 10-16 range instead of the sure fire top 10 pick everyone was adamant about.

 

[Sabresfansince1980]

Hes also just coming into his prime. It's not unusual for goaltenders to hit their zenith late twenties, early thirties.

Isles will be better next year with just this change. Wishful thinking from anyone who doesn't think so.

Halak will most likely be an improvement over Nabakov, but there's other factors in play - offensive production to replace, and their d-corps is a big question. It's still all guesswork on our part. We'll get what we get.

 

[Zip15]

Halak will most likely be an improvement over Nabakov, but there's other factors in play - offensive production to replace, and their d-corps is a big question. It's still all guesswork on our part. We'll get what we get.

They'll sign at least one top-6 forward. They'll also get better production from young guys like Strome and Nelson, and Lee can score goals at this level (11 goals in final 22 games, without Tavares).

 

[MagnumForce2]

I am hoping we get a top 10 pick next year from the Isles....its a crapshoot....they could be a bubble team to make the playoffs or they could finish bottom 5. So I am assuming the pick will fall somewhere in between.

 

[MagnumForce2]

The Neuvirth trade was the only Murray move I didn't like at all. No reason we should have had to include a 3rd with Halak AND take a cap dump. Reto Barra returned a 2nd and Halak is 5x the goalie he is. It's not like Neuvirth has multiple years of us controlling his rights or that he has untapped potential. He's 26 and a UFA after this year. It's not a big deal really about the 3rd Moreso that its a 3rd + whatever the return we could have got for Halak if we moved him elsewhere. If Berra got a 2nd Halak should have too.

As for the Isles getting his rights, I'm hoping Halak pulls an Ehrhoff and refuses to sign with the Islanders. This is bad bad news for our 2015 1st, If they add a solid blue liner or two I can see that pick be in the 10-16 range instead of the sure fire top 10 pick everyone was adamant about.

I wasn't crazy about the trade at all either...Our 3rd in 2015 should be close to a low 2nd round pick next year. Its odd that Halak was somewhat of a throw in as part of our deal with St Louis and a throw in to the Washington deal and now he could end up hurting or improving our draft position next year with 2 of our picks.

 

[DazedandConfused]

Why's everyone so worried about Halak. Guy hasn't been a horse for a team his whole career. He plays 40-50 games tops. Say he gets hurt, back to the dumpster quality they have now.

What if Strome slumps in his 2nd pro season, I know he didn't play much of this one but still. Okposo had a career year whose to say he even comes close to that. That defense is still very young. We've seen with Myers young development the ups and downs he's had in the pros. More than likely De Haan falls off for parts of the season.

I don't see anyway they get out of the bottom 10. Far too many ???'s for me to really consider them a threat to finish high over a full season.

 

[Zman5778]

Why's everyone so worried about Halak. Guy hasn't been a horse for a team his whole career. He plays 40-50 games tops.

The Islanders were 16-15-8 last year in games started by a goaltender (Nabokov) with a .905 SV%. That's an 84-point pace with well below league-average goaltending. That alone puts their pick between 8th-10th.

Zip's already answered your question -- they were an 84-point pace team with Nabokov in net and Halak is a fair bit better than Nabokov. Let's say they re-sign Nabokov to backup Halak....and now assume that Nabby plays the same way he did this year and doesn't actually improve back to something closer to his career numbers.

It's not a big leap to think that they'll be at least in the fringe of the playoff race up until the end, especially if they snag another D and a top 6 forward.

 

[DazedandConfused]

It's not going to plan out like a perfect little math equation, real games are played. The equation changes far too often to predict. Be happy folks, it's going to be a top-10 selection. Embrace it.

 

[ZeroPT*]

Zip's already answered your question -- they were an 84-point pace team with Nabokov in net and Halak is a fair bit better than Nabokov. Let's say they re-sign Nabokov to backup Halak....and now assume that Nabby plays the same way he did this year and doesn't actually improve back to something closer to his career numbers.

It's not a big leap to think that they'll be at least in the fringe of the playoff race up until the end, especially if they snag another D and a top 6 forward.

You've been telling us this for weeks. It doesn't work that way, every single game is different and it's impossible to calculate it perfectly.

I find it next to impossible to think the Isles will beat out the other teams in the metro, Washington,Carolina were awful this year and still beat out the Isles. Devils are the only team I could see being near the Isles quality and even they have a great starter in Schneider. Pitt,NYR and Philly are going to be competing and CBJ will likely take a step forward.

 

[Weltschmerz]

Zip's already answered your question -- they were an 84-point pace team with Nabokov in net and Halak is a fair bit better than Nabokov. Let's say they re-sign Nabokov to backup Halak....and now assume that Nabby plays the same way he did this year and doesn't actually improve back to something closer to his career numbers.

It's not a big leap to think that they'll be at least in the fringe of the playoff race up until the end, especially if they snag another D and a top 6 forward.

There is talk about the islanders adding defense every offseason and they never add some real help.
The free agent class doesn't look great and the top guys might prefer other teams.
And Nabokov will be 39, he could decline as well.

I still wouldn't bet it will be a top ten pick, but it's possible.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Hes also just coming into his prime. It's not unusual for goaltenders to hit their zenith late twenties, early thirties.

Isles will be better next year with just this change. Wishful thinking from anyone who doesn't think so.

Most goalies are a product of their defense. If the Isles defense doesn't improve, the isles don't improve.

 

[EichHart]

Most goalies are a product of their defense. If the Isles defense doesn't improve, the isles don't improve.

 

[boredmale]

What if Strome slumps in his 2nd pro season, I know he didn't play much of this one but still.

Regin was our 3rd line center to start last season, I don't think Strome will be as much a downgrade(at least offensively). All that being said if he really is having issues we can always send him to Bridgeport and let Nelson take over 3rd line center duties.

Best case scenario Strome starts scoring at a pace that makes Nielsen our 3rd line center(a spot I think would suit his skillset much better).

 

[Zip15]

Most goalies are a product of their defense. If the Isles defense doesn't improve, the isles don't improve.

Which is why Miller's and Halak's numbers were markedly better away from St. Louis. Right? Because they were products of Buffalo's and Washington's superior defensive play relative to St. Louis.

 

[boredmale]

Which is why Miller's and Halak's numbers were markedly better away from St. Louis. Right? Because they were products of Buffalo's and Washington's superior defensive play relative to St. Louis.

Both goalies had a better GAA but worse save percentage in St Louis

If Halak signs with the Islanders I would expect his GAA to go above 2.5, but to have a save percentage above .920

 

[EichHart]

Which is why Miller's and Halak's numbers were markedly better away from St. Louis. Right? Because they were products of Buffalo's and Washington's superior defensive play relative to St. Louis.

The same counter argument could be used for Scrivens and many, many others. You really cannot debate that a teams defense is more important than a goalies individual skill. A team concept of accountability and defensive acumen for each individual player can mask a myriad of faults in goltending prowess. I've never agreed with this sentiment until recently after doing some research on it. Jame got me thinking, and I fully agree with him now.

Another thought. Halaks and Millers sample size was far to small last year to justify using them as an example. When you have a full season or two to compare you can use there examples. We will see how Miller does in a full season next year after getting acclimated to whatever team he goes to system.

 

[EichHart]

Both goalies had a better GAA but worse save percentage in St Louis

If Halak signs with the Islanders I would expect his GAA to go above 2.5, but to have a save percentage above .920

I'd bet quite a bit he is around .915 next season. Your expecting Halak who has been tossed around from Montreal, St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington, and the NYI in a few seasons to be that good? Are all those other teams not seeing something you are? If he was actually good he wouldn't have been tossed around so much in such a short amount of time.

 

[boredmale]

I'd bet quite a bit he is around .915 next season. Your expecting Halak who has been tossed around from Montreal, St. Louis, Buffalo, Washington, and the NYI in a few seasons to be that good? Are all those other teams not seeing something you are? If he was actually good he wouldn't have been tossed around so much in such a short amount of time.

His Save percentage was .917 in St Louis, .930 in Washington, so to say he could get above .920 isn't that much a stretch(given his career save percentage is .918)