GDT: NYI at Caps. 7PM. 4.4.2013: Playoffs?!

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I remember in the late 80s to thru the mid 90s we'd routinely outshoot the Pens heavily when we played them. The Pens were an east west team and really didn't rack up SOG. But the looks they got combined with their immense skill would translate for a rough save percentage for the opposing goalie.

I remember at the begining of 87-88 season (in the offseason we grabbed Hunter) we were struggling mightily to score goals. I remember a home game vs Detroit where we lost 1 or 2-0 while throwing up some 40 SOG. The fans were booing the team off the ice and throughout the 3rd when it was getting late.

The next day they were analyzing as they do on ESPN and I recall there was an expanded discussion about the Caps and why the couldn't score despite all those shots (it was a recurring trend throught the beginning of the season for that years Caps). Clement basically said its either their lack of finish or you have to question the quality of their shots.
The 09-10 team was different. Not only did they put up a ton of shots they got great looks and chances too. Much like the 91-92 team.

Yeah, I'd agree with this assessment. SOG is mostly a worthless stat. Give me a team that gets 15 scoring chances on 22 shots vs 9 chances on 33 shots any day of the week. For a case study, see the Montreal series.

I played goalie in lacrosse in college. I'd always tell my defense that I'd take 15 shots from 15 yards out over 5 shots from 5 yards out any day of the week (obviously no shots is most desirable). Goalies get in rythym when they're able to see shots clearly and from a reasonable distance.

 

[BobRouse]

Yeah, I'd agree with this assessment. SOG is mostly a worthless stat. Give me a team that gets 15 scoring chances on 22 shots vs 9 chances on 33 shots any day of the week. For a case study, see the Montreal series.

I played goalie in lacrosse in college. I'd always tell my defense that I'd take 15 shots from 15 yards out over 5 shots from 5 yards out any day of the week (obviously no shots is most desirable). Goalies get in rythym when they're able to see shots clearly and from a reasonable distance.

I agree with everything you say here except for one thing that I'll get to. You are correct that goalies definitely like to see a ton of shots to keep them in the flow.

I'm one of the few who think that the Montreal series was an abberation. I personally thought that not only did we get alot of shots but that we got a lot of scoring chances as well. Halak really did play that good and made insane saves during the last 3 games.

But in general I do concur.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's not the be all tell all, as with any stat, but SOG is not worthless. Can't shoot if you don't score. 100mph slapper, or dribbling deflection off 3 guys...doesn't matter.

SOG still tells you a lot...

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

It's not the be all tell all, as with any stat, but SOG is not worthless. Can't shoot if you don't score. 100mph slapper, or dribbling deflection off 3 guys...doesn't matter.

SOG still tells you a lot...

I get that. Michael Jordan, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." I think the offense stats in ranking of importance are:

1. Scoring Chances


2. Zone Time





3. SOG

 

[Langway]

Completely disagree. The Caps fundamentals look better this year than they have in many years, perhaps in as long as I've followed the team (15 years).

They're making progress but they only seem fundamentally sound when they're winning races all over the ice, which is more about system play and work ethic than execution with the puck. When it's at a much more competitive pace they resemble the same old one-gear team that can't really elevate their game or play with greater urgency when needed.

We'll find out more about them in the final eleven games as the strength of schedule picks up. The two vs. TB will be big and five of their last six games are against playoff teams.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I get that. Michael Jordan, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take." I think the offense stats in ranking of importance are:

1. QUALITY Scoring Chances


2. SOG


3. Zone Time

I'd go with this ....you don't see a lot of teams holding the puck in the offensive zone and not shooting. Even if that were to happen, the other team isn't getting shots either if your side is dominating puck possession/zone time, so SOG will still point to you outplaying the opposition. Scoreboard could still be reversed obviously...

 

[RandyHolt]

What I remember from that Montreal series were many quality scoring chances that were not shots on goal. Green Ovi and Semin picking top corners and missing the net entirely, over and over. Semin on a great deflection early in game 7 rang the post.

I have heard it many times - what Rouse said - goalies want to see shots, they get in the zone - a rhythm. It's more than that thought, as the other goalie is stone cold.

Quality scoring chances for and against is good measuring stick for how well a team is doing. Of course, fluky goals, rebounds onto a stick, off a dman's skate bad angle goals etc do happen. In low scoring games, even quality scoring chances can be meaningless compared to garbage goals.

Sometimes, you need to give a garbage goal a chance, and not worry about getting Locker cute.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Shots NOT on goal are NOT quality scoring chances...A post...sure, I'll give you that. The Montreal series was an aberration that happens from time to time in hockey. Sometimes the goalie can steal an entire series....it happens.

 

[tycoonheart]

That Montreal series had more to do with Jacques Martin coming up with an excellent strategy to counter what Bruce was trying to do. And Bruce being stubborn and not changing anything on our end. He tried to use brute force to run through the Montreal wall over and over again w/o any success. Halak played well no doubt though.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

I'd go with this ....you don't see a lot of teams holding the puck in the offensive zone and not shooting. Even if that were to happen, the other team isn't getting shots either if your side is dominating puck possession/zone time, so SOG will still point to you outplaying the opposition. Scoreboard could still be reversed obviously...

Is there a difference in statistics between scoring chances and quality scoring chances? Isn't a scoring chance by definition considered a quality scoring chance?

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

There's certainly a difference. A routine wrister on net going 40mph from the point with no screen is a scoring chance. A shot at a gaping wide open net from 5 ft away where the goalie makes a miraculous scrambling save is a quality scoring chance....

 

[ChibiPooky]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scoring_chance

 

[Ajax1995]

I get that. Michael Jordan, "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take."

That was Gretzky who said that. Jordon may have said it also but Gretzky said it first...

 

[Liberati0n*]

That was Gretzky who said that. Jordon may have said it also but Gretzky said it first...

Michael Scott said it best though.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/6/26/sho...ation-between-scoring-chances-and-shot-totals

Not a math guy....but looks interesting...

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

They're making progress but they only seem fundamentally sound when they're winning races all over the ice, which is more about system play and work ethic than execution with the puck. When it's at a much more competitive pace they resemble the same old one-gear team that can't really elevate their game or play with greater urgency when needed.

We'll find out more about them in the final eleven games as the strength of schedule picks up. The two vs. TB will be big and five of their last six games are against playoff teams.

You don't think the break-out looks light years better this year than it has in the past? I'll also disagree with your second point. I've seen the Caps turn on the heat and come back from 1-2 goals numerous times during this stretch, often late in the game.

I will agree 100% with your second paragraph. 4 points in regulation (at least on Saturday) this weekend in Florida would be huge.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

I like what I'm seeing and at the right time. Sorry, I've been down on GM for a while, and I wasn't against tanking if things had gotten just a little more bleak than they were, but the only issue with this team is a very young D needing to sure things up. I don't know if it's a coaching problem or what but the talent is here. My only complaint (now that everyone is healthy) is Orlov sitting. Maybe he's hurt. If not, benching him for any of the Hillen/Kund/Poti/Sarge mess is beyond brain dead. Fixing the awful PK would do a great deal of good.

It pains me to say this because I liked Calle Johansson as a player, but I don't think he is the guy for assistant coach. I'm giving him more time though.

 

[BobbyCarpenter]

It pains me to say this because I liked Calle Johansson as a player, but I don't think he is the guy for assistant coach. I'm giving him more time though.

What is your namesake up to these days? With a team of puck-moving defensemen, maybe he is the guy we need behind the bench.

 

[BobRouse]

It pains me to say this because I liked Calle Johansson as a player, but I don't think he is the guy for assistant coach. I'm giving him more time though.

I feel the same way. He just comes across as awkward to me for some reason. I guess we'll see if things work out.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

What is your namesake up to these days? With a team of puck-moving defensemen, maybe he is the guy we need behind the bench.

Last I heard he has his own hockey stick business and living the good life. Such a shame his career was cut short with those nasty injuries. I don't think he would have the patience with some of the players as a coach. I can just see him telling GMGM, "Wtf did you draft Jeff Schultz".

Speaking of him and having the TDL a few days ago, I think back to 1994. I remember coming home from work on the TDL and Bill Pito stating, "The Caps have sent the Wild Thing Al Iafrate to Boston for Joey Juneau". Outside of losing Stevens in the 1990 offseason that left a huge pit in my stomach. I cursed Poile and ranted on an on about why couldn't it been Hatcher. Juneau went on to save our 95 season with Bondra and the GWG in the ECF in 1998. Not to mention we won our first playoff series since 1991 and upsetting the Penguins in 94. I am keeping optimism the Erat/Latta for Forsberg trade will work like that trade in 94. At least I'm hoping it will.

As for Hatcher, he ended up getting Tinordi. Pretty cool when the Caps were able to get him. Tinordi was a beast for the North Stars in 1991 playoffs. When I saw Pitkanen get injured the other night, that reminded me of Tinordi's injury back in 1992. He was still a great player, but never the same after that. I will say one thing, Poile will make the trades and he seemed to try and get defensemen I liked growing up, (Iafrate, Tinordi, Johansson and he almost had Dave Manson). For some reason GMGM just can't fathom building a defensive corps like Poile put on the ice.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Calle does come off pretty terribly in interviews, whereas Jim Johnson appeared extremely competent in them. It's easy to get enamored (or not) with those appearances, but they ultimately may not mean much. The defense hasn't been good, but knowing the assistant coach's role/impact there is difficult, and the personnel is questionable at best. I certainly wouldn't be sad to see him go, but I think it's kind of pointless for us to speculate on his performance.

 

[Halpysback*]

The defense was all Johnson.

His man to man scheme that he was able to implement successfully gave absolutely no space for other teams to get creative in our zone. Right now everyone stands around and loses the play after 10 seconds. Much softer in front of the net as well.

 

[Foy]

What I remember most about the Montreal series was the goaltender interference call in the 3rd period of game 7 in which no one touched the goaltender and no one was in the crease.

 

[PuckBuddy]

Last I heard he has his own hockey stick business and living the good life.

It's up in a Vancouver suburb. He and Cliff Ronning are also "shot consultants", which I think means you pay a bunch of money to watch a video of your sad-ass slapshot and hang out with one of them for an hour. I kind of want to go up and do it at some point, actually, since those were two of my favorite players.

 

[PuckBuddy]

What I remember most about the Montreal series was the goaltender interference call in the 3rd period of game 7 in which no one touched the goaltender and no one was in the crease.

Mike Knuble's reputation was in the crease. That still bugs me.