News Article: Nuge (Oilers-Senators)

[Drivesaitl]

Nobody is bringing up that you aren't a fan. Pay attention.
You took exception to the very fair and honest point that RNH has been the beneficiary of some EN goals, own goals and fluke deflections.
I pointed out, with examples, that you are the last guy on the board who gets to cry foul when someone suggests that some goals are less worthy than others.
Laughably you are now suggesting that bringing up examples like Gagner and Eberle is taking the thread OT when your original post that I responded to was bringing up Ryan Smyth.
As usual, its do as I say, not as I do in naboob's world.

Its like he doesn't even know when he does this. Its like posting and you don't even know what you posted.

 

[Spawn]

I am not sold one bit on trading RNH for Hoffman.

What happens if Hoffman doesn’t click with Mcdavid? There is no guarantee that he will one bit.

I would rather keep RNH with Mcdavid for the rest of the season. IMO RNH can be more effective with Mcdavid than Hoffman. Even if Hoffman did put up 35 goals with Mcdavid, his hockey IQ (ability to make a play/pass) drops Mcdavid 10+ goals a season vs playing with RNH.

Why it took this long to try our 2 highest hockey IQ players on the same line is just mind baffling. For this reason alone TMac should be canned. He is so stubborn with playing his garbage vets like Letestu that it quickly yanked our season.

This being said I truly believe RNH is a +80 point player per season playing with Mcdavid. Get these guys a half decent d-core and we are contenders again.

10+ goals from Nuge having a higher IQ? What a load of nonsense.

Since they've both been full time NHLers

Hoffman: 300GP 103G 114A 217P
Nuge: 265GP 73G 96A 169P

Hoffman not only scores goals at a substantially higher rate, he also earns assists at a higher rate.

Oh and he also happens to be able to stay healthy.

 

[Raab]

I would rather have a winger problem than a RD problem or a C problem. Winger problem is the easiest to fix and should not require giving up a player like RNH.

Chia used the wingers to fix the problems in net and on D ... The C depth was inherited and I am glad he didnt touch it.
Lets not forget that RNH was the best C we had since Weight. Young quality Cs are very hard to acquire outside of drafting. See Oilers history for proof or ask MTL , CBJ, OTT management.

This is very debatable, I'd argue prime Horcoff, Comrie, and Stoll were all better then RNH's best to this point.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I am not sold one bit on trading RNH for Hoffman.

What happens if Hoffman doesn’t click with Mcdavid? There is no guarantee that he will one bit.

I would rather keep RNH with Mcdavid for the rest of the season. IMO RNH can be more effective with Mcdavid than Hoffman. Even if Hoffman did put up 35 goals with Mcdavid, his hockey IQ (ability to make a play/pass) drops Mcdavid 10+ goals a season vs playing with RNH.

Why it took this long to try our 2 highest hockey IQ players on the same line is just mind baffling. For this reason alone TMac should be canned. He is so stubborn with playing his garbage vets like Letestu that it quickly yanked our season.

This being said I truly believe RNH is a +80 point player per season playing with Mcdavid. Get these guys a half decent d-core and we are contenders again.

For Nuge to be an 80pt player would require divine intervention at this point. That would be 24pts higher than his alltime high and that had playing for several seasons with allstar players that were very good producers.

I'm not sure if people just assume Nuge could even handle 82 games of first line sledding with the likes of McD. This is balls to the wall hockey McD plays. No shortcuts, no games off, no resting on certain nights or taking periods off. Its admirable Nuge has risen to this short term, really it is. But to parlay 3-4 games to thinking that Nuge can handle this level of pace and punishment for a complete season is another thing. I think he could do stints with McD. But not a season. I don't think he could do that pace, pressure, and pounding for 82 games and he would have to be better than he's ever been all of those games.

Heres an interesting thing. Over last 3 seasons Hoffman has been AVERAGING higher pt totals than Nuge has ever put up. yet you figure Hoffman wouldn't fit, despite having the exact one time tools to fit with McD (speed, one timer, and is also a good passer) but you think Nuge could get 80.

That's simply a leap of faith.

 

[Aerrol]

huh?

Eberle is in my view worth more than Nuge and less than Hoffman.

Hoffman has a one time shot Eberle could only dream about. With no disrespect to eberle who when on finds different ways to score close in. But Hoffman scores more and with his one timer is obviously a better McD fit. Eberle really struggled with McD because he doesn't have an NHL level one timer shot.

Much delayed now, but this raised an interesting point that I wanted to address.

Let's compare the raw numbers:

Hoffman's stats since settling into the NHL full time:
2014-15: 79GP 27G 48P
2015-16: 78GP 29G 59P
2016-17: 74GP 26G 61P
2017-18: 69GP 21G 49P

Eberle's stats since making it full time in the NHL:
2010-11: 69GP 18G 43P
2011-12: 78GP 34G 76P
2012-13: 48GP 16G 37P
2013-14: 80GP 28G 65P
2014-15: 81GP 24G 63P
2015-16: 69GP 25G 47P
2016-17: 82GP 20G 51P
2017-18: 68GP 24G 48P

So, looking at these breakdowns, I'd say that they're definitely comparable players. However, Eberle has the longer and IMO slightly better overall track record, both in overall points and in goal scoring. The interesting point you raise, however, is the idea of a specific skillset - Hoffman's One-Timer - which makes him more valuable than Eberle.

I disagree, but I think it's an interesting point. Certain types of skills definitely have value around the league - look no further than RHD Dmen right now. So, do you have any evidence for one-timer skills giving Hoffman more value around the league? I tend to think that GMs look more at overall points for scoring wingers.

 

[Drivesaitl]

10+ goals from Nuge having a higher IQ? What a load of nonsense.

Since they've both been full time NHLers

Hoffman: 300GP 103G 114A 217P
Nuge: 265GP 73G 96A 169P

Hoffman not only scores goals at a substantially higher rate, he also earns assists at a higher rate.

Oh and he also happens to be able to stay healthy.

I was going to post the bolded in response to some of the fiction here. Yes, Hoffman is a better scorer, better passer, better speed, better shot, and has the key one time shot. He would be the best possible addition we could get for McD in that such one time shooters are seldom available. AS I mentioned before I think most people on this board didn't even see Bill Guerin's stint here. They don't know what Hoffman is.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

If we deal Nuge it had better be in a package that returns Karlsson.

 

[Asiaoil]

I would rather have a winger problem than a RD problem or a C problem. Winger problem is the easiest to fix and should not require giving up a player like RNH.

Chia used the wingers to fix the problems in net and on D ... The C depth was inherited and I am glad he didnt touch it.
Lets not forget that RNH was the best C we had since Weight. Young quality Cs are very hard to acquire outside of drafting. See Oilers history for proof or ask MTL , CBJ, OTT management.

This....

The Eberle trade is a non-issue to me. Ebs had 2 more goals than Strome has now with 12 games left to play last year (mostly playing with McDavid or RNH). Big deal. Plus Strome can play 3C and his PK work has stabilized a huge hole on the roster. We traded winger for center and it was a good deal as far as I'm concerned. Hall for our 1RD was painful but few options unless you think having a right side of Russell, Benning and Gryba is anything but a awful. Non-drafting of RHD was an organizational disaster for the OBC.

RNH did everything critics like myself asked this season. There is no reason to deal him without a signficant overpay and certainly not for an older winger like Hoffman. Play RNH with McDavid regualrly and likely he has a career year, especially if you can get those guys a faster version of Maroon on RW. I don't see any deals with OTT I like except something like RNH and Sekera or Lucic for Karlsson. Maybe Hoffman PLUS their #1 round pick for RNH - that's the minimum. They can pound sand or pay with blood for a young center like everyone else.

 

[nabob]

Get real. Drai has been put on that line at times that the first line isn't scoring. Its as much that as the other. Drai can carry his own line. He's even done that with Cammy, Khaira, Strome, as hard sledding as that is.

Most teams that have Centers of the caliber of Drai or McD have at least one quality winger for each. You need the one, You can't do it without any.

So you're trying to say that Drai gets moved up to the top line to get McDavid going? Yeah don't think I'm the one who needs to "get real".

There you go putting Drai in te same category as McDavid again. McDavid doesn't need a great winger.

 

[Raab]

Much delayed now, but this raised an interesting point that I wanted to address.

Let's compare the raw numbers:

Hoffman's stats since settling into the NHL full time:
2014-15: 79GP 27G 48P
2015-16: 78GP 29G 59P
2016-17: 74GP 26G 61P
2017-18: 69GP 21G 49P

Eberle's stats since making it full time in the NHL:
2010-11: 69GP 18G 43P
2011-12: 78GP 34G 76P
2012-13: 48GP 16G 37P
2013-14: 80GP 28G 65P
2014-15: 81GP 24G 63P
2015-16: 69GP 25G 47P
2016-17: 82GP 20G 51P
2017-18: 68GP 24G 48P

So, looking at these breakdowns, I'd say that they're definitely comparable players. However, Eberle has the longer and IMO slightly better overall track record, both in overall points and in goal scoring. The interesting point you raise, however, is the idea of a specific skillset - Hoffman's One-Timer - which makes him more valuable than Eberle.

I disagree, but I think it's an interesting point. Certain types of skills definitely have value around the league - look no further than RHD Dmen right now. So, do you have any evidence for one-timer skills giving Hoffman more value around the league? I tend to think that GMs look more at overall points for scoring wingers.

Not to mention Eberle's age... People are in lala land with the value we got for Eberle. I gave Chia a pass for the Hall and Reinhart deals as they at least made some semblance of sense. He literally gave Eberle away for next to nothing, for no reason. A fireable offence IMO

 

[Drivesaitl]

Much delayed now, but this raised an interesting point that I wanted to address.

Let's compare the raw numbers:

Hoffman's stats since settling into the NHL full time:
2014-15: 79GP 27G 48P
2015-16: 78GP 29G 59P
2016-17: 74GP 26G 61P
2017-18: 69GP 21G 49P

Eberle's stats since making it full time in the NHL:
2010-11: 69GP 18G 43P
2011-12: 78GP 34G 76P
2012-13: 48GP 16G 37P
2013-14: 80GP 28G 65P
2014-15: 81GP 24G 63P
2015-16: 69GP 25G 47P
2016-17: 82GP 20G 51P
2017-18: 68GP 24G 48P

So, looking at these breakdowns, I'd say that they're definitely comparable players. However, Eberle has the longer and IMO slightly better overall track record, both in overall points and in goal scoring. The interesting point you raise, however, is the idea of a specific skillset - Hoffman's One-Timer - which makes him more valuable than Eberle.

I disagree, but I think it's an interesting point. Certain types of skills definitely have value around the league - look no further than RHD Dmen right now. So, do you have any evidence for one-timer skills giving Hoffman more value around the league? I tend to think that GMs look more at overall points for scoring wingers.

Excellent post as always. But the bolded is the key in how I see it. Again with no disrespect to Eberle.

Its not that Hoffman is innately more valuable than Eberle. His scoring toolset would just better fit with McD or Drai who are passing built to have one timers to work with. When you have pure as driven snow passers you should have a quality one time gun in the mix.

But thanks again for an actual well thought out response.

 

[harpoon]

If we deal Nuge it had better be in a package that returns Karlsson.

Would you be willing to swap Lucic for Ryan as part of that deal?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

What would they offer up for Drai? Unsigned Karlsson ++? Drai + Klefbom for a signed Karlsson and Hoffman? I doubt that we'd move Leon fwiw.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Would you be willing to swap Lucic for Ryan as part of that deal?

I'd have to look at the contract situations for both guys.

 

[Aerrol]

Would you be willing to swap Lucic for Ryan as part of that deal?

Personally, 100%. I'm sure we have to add a bunch of other stuff too so that's where I might draw the line. But hell yes I take on some cap to get Karlsson. THAT'S the kind of move you clear cap space for... not this phantom fear of a Draisaitl offersheet this summer. Boy I'm sure glad we have Pouliot's buyout on the books and lost Eberle for zip!

 

[Aerrol]

Excellent post as always. But the bolded is the key in how I see it. Again with no disrespect to Eberle.

Its not that Hoffman is innately more valuable than Eberle. His scoring toolset would just better fit with McD or Drai who are passing built to have one timers to work with. When you have pure as driven snow passers you should have a quality one time gun in the mix.

But thanks again for an actual well thought out response.

Hum. I agree that the team is clearly starving for a one-timer. If you glance over at the draft thread you'll see almost all of my preference for the prospects there include at least in part some kind of nice shot from far out.

I just don't like the idea of losing a trade, or, to not get into Nuge's value since I don't really want to argue that with you, valuing a player extra, solely because our team needs the skillset more. That type of thinking is how we ended up with Hall for Larsson. We can't afford to keep losing trades to get skillsets we like at this point. Chia's bled too many assets for that.

 

[Drivesaitl]

So you're trying to say that Drai gets moved up to the top line to get McDavid going? Yeah don't think I'm the one who needs to "get real".

There you go putting Drai in te same category as McDavid again. McDavid doesn't need a great winger.

Actually its the well McLellan goes to when the team needs a goal or has trouble producing on topline or on the PP. What you fail to realize is McD is also better with Draisaitl (and Maroon) than anybody else he's played with.

I'm sure you'll respond with a means nothing sample saying Nuge/McD are defeating the NHL /60mins in a 3-4 game sample..


But we know your take. You're the guy saying that Leon was the one benefitting from playing with Strome and Khaira. People in the thread might want to know you were stating that. You said that in the respective threads and yet you say conversely that Drai can't produce without McD. Oh man, which hole do you want to dig?

When the reality is its amazing that Drai can produce with the likes of Cammy, Cagg, Strome, Khaira as much as he does. Which nobody else seems to be able to do very well with these wingers.

 

[Fourier]

Hoffman would be gold with McDavid I think....As much as I dont want to trade Nuge, I think it would be worth it. And as has been said on here already, we need someone with a good one timer.

This tends to be the way people think. But it is not a given that his numbers will automatically rise if he plays with McDavid. Hoffman score a lot of his goals on the pp playing with Karlsson. Karlsson is also the defensemen he has played most often with. His centers has often been Turris and his other line mate has often been Stone. So its not like he has played with plugs.

 

[Spawn]

This tends to be the way people think. But it is not a given that his numbers will automatically rise if he plays with McDavid. Hoffman score a lot of his goals on the pp playing with Karlsson. Karlsson is also the defensemen he has played most often with. His centers has often been Turris and his other line mate has often been Stone. So its not like he has played with plugs.

His numbers wouldn't have to rise for the deal to be worthwhile.

 

[harpoon]

I'd have to look at the contract situations for both guys.

Ryan has four years left (till age 33) at 7.25 cap hit.
Lucic has five years left (till age 33) at 6.0 cap hit.

Ryan can't possibly be worse than Lucic. Ryan has almost the same point totals this season in about half the games of Lucic. At this point I agree with @Aerrol , its something the team should look at if it gives us a chance at Karlsson. Problem is we have Chiarelli negotiating the deal.

 

[Fourier]

His numbers wouldn't have to rise for the deal to be worthwhile.

You are probably in the minority here at this point but at least you are consistent. Hoffman is a shooter but he is not a guy that does much else. He's played 12 minute on the pk since 2012. That will tell you a lot about how trusted he has been defensively. He also gives you no flexibility in your line-up.

As I said people have him pencilled in as the McDavid winger but he is a left shot RW. His one timer is neutralized to a great deal playing with a LH C. A lot of his success in Ottawa has come playing with Turris who is not only a great passer but is also right handed.

 

[bobbythebrain]

So let me get this straight. We traded a one dimensional winger in Ebs who produces more than Hoffman, but some people want to trade Nuge for a one dimensional Hoffman cuz he one-times some his goals?

What did I miss?

 

[Soundwave]

Hoffman just isn't good enough to move the needle enough for the Oilers. You're better off keeping RNH for when some better player is available. Until then let Pulju and Yamamoto develop.

A young-ish center is always going to have decent value especially if you can put him on McDavids wing now and again to boost his production.

 

[Aerchon]

Trading Nuge for a winger is a huge step back for this organization. Nuge getting traded for anyone right now is most likely a step back.

 

[CupofOil]

You are probably in the minority here at this point but at least you are consistent. Hoffman is a shooter but he is not a guy that does much else. He's played 12 minute on the pk since 2012. That will tell you a lot about how trusted he has been defensively. He also gives you no flexibility in your line-up.

As I said people have him pencilled in as the McDavid winger but he is a left shot RW. His one timer is neutralized to a great deal playing with a LH C. A lot of his success in Ottawa has come playing with Turris who is not only a great passer but is also right handed.

He's actually a pretty underrated passer so he does more than just shoot the puck. He's not Brandon Pirri.

Sure he gives the Oilers flexibility. He gives the Oilers a legit top line sniper so Drai doesn't have to be moved up to the top line everytime McDavid's wingers fail him. He gives you the option to put Drai at #2C full time like he should have been all along.

Also, Drai succeeded on McDavid's RW so why couldn't Hoffman? It doesn't matter which side he plays on, McDavid will find him because McDavid is THAT good. If he doesn't work with McDavid then he can play alongside Draisaitl. That's the luxury of having two elite skilled centers, any winger with some speed and any semblance of hands can succeed with either of them.