Confirmed with Link: [NSH/NJ] Subban (No salary retention) for Santini, Davies, 2019 2nd, 2020 2nd

[triggrman]

Nothing I see in Santini's stats makes me actually have any hope for him, sadly. Davies is more interesting, but I gotta think he needs to get his feet wet in Milwaukee as a pro first. Milwaukee should be a more fun team to watch now with more prospects there than has lately been the case.

You could be right, I just caution about using stats to judge stay at home defensemen. Shot based metrics aren’t useful for those types. Pairings make a difference too.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

I work with a big Devils fan in the office. He's saying that Davies is the true return in the trade and should be a great player for the Preds.

Honestly, we'll have better opinions on this trade after seeing what we do in FA and those $$$. The cap relief was just as big a return.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

Where does Davies play this year?

 

[LCPreds]

Good read on the d man market.

The market for NHL defencemen is fundamentally broken

Put another way: It does not make sense that an NHL team sees Subban as a total write-off at $9 million for three more seasons a week and a half before someone gives Myers $8 million for seven. These guys are separated in age by eight and a half months.

But it just goes to show how poor NHL GMs remain at player valuation, and how much the idiotic vagaries of the game play a role in the eye test. A pure shutdown guy can appear to be effective even when he’s not, and in fact hasn’t been since his sophomore season. Meanwhile, they’re ready to pull the chute on a former Norris winner after a single bad season because he didn’t put up 50 points for a below-average offensive team.
It’s tough to argue that trading Subban was a fireable offense, but I don’t think it was advisable either, given the return. On the other hand, the GM that gives Myers a contract even vaguely resembling $50 million-plus should be out of a job before the ink dries.

 

[PredsV82]

Good read on the d man market.

The market for NHL defencemen is fundamentally broken

Of course this writer talks about Subban in a vacuum not in the context of how badly we need additional offense, not to mention how many other good defenders we have, and that's not even factoring in any assessment of his larger than life personality on the rest of the room. So the author is talking out his ass when he implies that trading Subban is almost a fireable offense. He makes solid points otherwise but hes off the mark regarding the specifics of the Subban situation

 

[GeauxPreds1]

Nothing I see in Santini's stats makes me actually have any hope for him, sadly. Davies is more interesting, but I gotta think he needs to get his feet wet in Milwaukee as a pro first. Milwaukee should be a more fun team to watch now with more prospects there than has lately been the case.

Fabbro didn't get his feet wet in Milwaukee either. When playing 3 years in college I think you might be better to jump right into the nhl. Devil fans were hoping he'd make the jump next year so that's what I'm hoping.

 

[Sens]

Davies was playing 30 minutes a night in every key situation at both ends of the ice his final college season to... he led the team in scoring while playing shutdown defense

 

[Gh24]

It's gonna be interesting to see what the opening night roster looks like for defense. Hopefully Davies is ready to take over Hamhuis on 3rd pair. Not because I think Hamhuis is bad, but because I hope Davies is good.

Josi - Fabbro
Ekholm - Ellis
Davies - Santini

Still have veterans Hamhuis and Weber to step up in case of growing pains or simply bad play. Keeping a decent cushion on cap space allows to upgrade on the fly if needed.

 

[LCPreds]

Of course this writer talks about Subban in a vacuum not in the context of how badly we need additional offense, not to mention how many other good defenders we have, and that's not even factoring in any assessment of his larger than life personality on the rest of the room. So the author is talking out his ass when he implies that trading Subban is almost a fireable offense. He makes solid points otherwise but hes off the mark regarding the specifics of the Subban situation

He specifically mentioned the poor offensive situation as well as acknowledging that this was a cap dump to free up cash (doesn’t take specific highlighting to understand that cash would be used for offense). He also didn’t talk about him in a vacuum. He made sure to comment on Josi having a similarly bad season in 5v5 (something I admittedly did not fact check.)

Plus this article wasn’t all about Subban. It was about the jacked up valuation of d men.

By the way, how would he even reference this? Did something come out about this or is it the same old tired dialogue about what people think they know?

and that's not even factoring in any assessment of his larger than life personality on the rest of the room

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Fabbro didn't get his feet wet in Milwaukee either. When playing 3 years in college I think you might be better to jump right into the nhl. Devil fans were hoping he'd make the jump next year so that's what I'm hoping.

I just can't see our situation being ideal for breaking in a rookie LD right now. Having one rookie in Fabbro getting forcefed elevated responsibilities on RD isn't as bad, because we have the #7 and #10 Norris-voting guys on LD to potentially pair him with. Our 3rd pair is a wasteland, and I can't see how it would be ideal for Davies' development to play in that situation, limited minutes, very likely a weak partner, sheltered the way our 3rd pair is.

Even if Davies shows in camp that he's ready-ish/borderline ready, it is probably best for his development to go down to Milwaukee and get a full turn as a top-pairing all-situations guy there. Call him up occasionally as a reward for good play, or if Josi or Ekholm get injured, that is always an option. But putting him in and out of the lineup sharing starts with Hamhuis and paired with our existing 3rd pair muppets isn't going to be a very smart development approach.

 

[Armourboy]

Only way I think he stays up is if he comes in like Girard and basically forces them to play him. Otherwise I think he goes to Milwaukee.

 

[101st_fan]

Of course this writer talks about Subban in a vacuum not in the context of how badly we need additional offense, not to mention how many other good defenders we have, and that's not even factoring in any assessment of his larger than life personality on the rest of the room. So the author is talking out his ass when he implies that trading Subban is almost a fireable offense. He makes solid points otherwise but hes off the mark regarding the specifics of the Subban situation

The offense we need is called the powerplay. A league median PP last season and the Preds put up a top four historical franchise total.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

Good read on the d man market.

The market for NHL defencemen is fundamentally broken

So the basis of his argument is that we should use "WAR" (what ever that is) to compare a defender we can move to help our offense to a free agent that has no effect on our team. Stupid click bait article that was poorly written.

 

[LCPreds]

So the basis of his argument is that we should use "WAR" (what ever that is) to compare a defender we can move to help our offense to a free agent that has no effect on our team. Stupid click bait article that was poorly written.

You don’t know what WAR means and then call it click bait? Do you use ‘fake news’ in real life conversation?

I fully understand not agreeing with the article but calling out WAR and equating it to click bait makes you seem rather ignorant here. It’s solved with a quick google search.

 

[Predsanddead24]

So the basis of his argument is that we should use "WAR" (what ever that is) to compare a defender we can move to help our offense to a free agent that has no effect on our team. Stupid click bait article that was poorly written.

WAR refers to wins against replacement and is a stat estimating how many more wins a player provides above average in his position. His point is only that the market for the defenseman is illogical considering a perennial Norris candidate who even in a down year was in the top 30 defenseman by WAR had such little value but mediocre defenseman like Myers with a very low WAR is going to get so much in free agency and a mediocre defenseman like Braun got a proportionally better return than Subban did.

I don't think saying we sold quite low on Subban should really be all that controversial. Whether it was worthwhile for Duchene is arguable, but I don't think saying this is going to be a bad deal for us overall is all that crazy.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

You don’t know what WAR means and then call it click bait? Do you use ‘fake news’ in real life conversation?

I fully understand not agreeing with the article but calling out WAR and equating it to click bait makes you seem rather ignorant here. It’s solved with a quick google search.

Yay, I'm ignorant because I don't care about an analytic that is a derivative of other analytics.
What was the substantive part of the article? What can you teach my ignorant self from the article?

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

So the basis of his argument is that we should use "WAR" (what ever that is) to compare a defender we can move to help our offense to a free agent that has no effect on our team. Stupid click bait article that was poorly written.

Fancy baseball stat that seems a bit out of place in hockey.

 

[TK]

WAR refers to wins against replacement and is a stat estimating how many more wins a player provides above average in his position. His point is only that the market for the defenseman is illogical considering a perennial Norris candidate who even in a down year was in the top 30 defenseman by WAR had such little value but mediocre defenseman like Myers with a very low WAR is going to get so much in free agency and a mediocre defenseman like Braun got a proportionally better return than Subban did.

I don't think saying we sold quite low on Subban should really be all that controversial. Whether it was worthwhile for Duchene is arguable, but I don't think saying this is going to be a bad deal for us overall is all that crazy.

You read it wrong, he was nowhere near top 30 last year. He's is exactly 30th overall total over that stretch of years, which includes the Norris season where he was top 5. Advanced stats are not very kind to Subban for last season.

 

[TitansVolsPreds615]

Yay, I'm ignorant because I don't care about an analytic that is a derivative of other analytics.
What was the substantive part of the article? What can you teach my ignorant self from the article?

Yeah WAR is a trash stat in hockey.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Yeah WAR is a trash stat in hockey.

Is it really trash? Flawed certainly but its just an attempt to quantify the impact of a player into a single number using a variety of stats. Obviously thats impossible but it does give you something as a starting point when comparing players.

In any case the ultimate point is that Subban got a phenomenally low return even considering his high cap hit when you consider that Tyler Myers may get $7 million or more in free agency, which really shouldn't be that controversial in my opinion.

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Is it really trash? Flawed certainly but its just an attempt to quantify the impact of a player into a single number using a variety of stats. Obviously thats impossible but it does give you something as a starting point when comparing players.

In any case the ultimate point is that Subban got a phenomenally low return even considering his high cap hit when you consider that Tyler Myers may get $7 million or more in free agency, which really shouldn't be that controversial in my opinion.

It's not really controversial per se, but is a bit devoid of context and nuance. Neither of these transactions are occurring in a vacuum.

 

[GoldOnGold]

What do we think of Davies as a prospect? 71 points in 73 games across the last two seasons, including this past season when he led the team in points. His production is actually better than Fabbro's was.

 

[AdmiralsFan24]

What do we think of Davies as a prospect? 71 points in 73 games across the last two seasons, including this past season when he led the team in points. His production is actually better than Fabbro's was.

I could see his ceiling being a top 4 defenseman.

 

[GoldOnGold]

I could see his ceiling being a top 4 defenseman.

Do you think he'd be 1D for the Admirals?

 

[Predsanddead24]

It's not really controversial per se, but is a bit devoid of context and nuance. Neither of these transactions are occurring in a vacuum.

He provides the context of why we would have traded Subban since we need forward help and also that Myers is getting overpaid because it doesn't take any other assets to get him. That still doesn't mean that it isn't kind of crazy that the market for Subban was so non-existent but the one for Myers is so high.