Confirmed with Link: [NSH/NJ] Subban (No salary retention) for Santini, Davies, 2019 2nd, 2020 2nd

[Bringer of Jollity]

PKs turnovers were secondary to his lack of speed as his biggest flaw. He was constantly beat to pucks and around the edge. If not for Ekhom he would have been exposed more

Can't be overstated, which I think really become a poor fit for the more mobile and uptempo style we keep hearing Lavy wants to play. Ellis is slow too but is a generally more risk-averse player so it should theoretically be less an issue for him (honestly, between the lack of vision in the offensive zone--just firing off one-timers instead, and some of the baffling defensive play, I'm beginning to wonder how bad an influence PK's game was on Ellis ).

 

[Bringer of Jollity]

Agree with this. I don't think anyone would ever call him fast, but he has slowed. I noticed he was even falling more last year seemingly out of nowhere. Pretty strange to me. Obviously that's not really a measurable stat but observationally he looked like he was busting ass to keep up and was on the cusp of getting walked on an almost regular basis during transition play.

I would hazard to say slowest straight-line skater on the team.

 

[predhead1]

If nothing else, we need to keep our slower defenders from rushing into the O zone only to let the puck get past them on the boards. I can't remember how many times that led to an odd-man rush against us this year (usually because of Subban or Ellis). It seemed like a systemic problem, so hopefully the coaching staff will move away from having our D play so aggressively and letting the forwards do more of the work.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

I get ya and I was just using Ekholm vs. Josi as an example. Ultimately, I agree with you that they were our best defenseman last year pretty easily. Consequently, if you look at a stat like point share they were also the leaders in our teams in that category with Ekholm getting more of his point share from his defensive play and Josi more of his point share from his offensive play. In that case the advanced stats provide further illustration of the argument that I think we both agree on regarding which of our defenseman played best.

Ultimately, the things you listed are basically impossible to quantify but they should result in quantifiable things such as goals, scoring chances, etc. Obviously, they aren't a perfect indicator of performance because you can make a terrible play that doesn't lead to a goal or the right play that ends up a goal because of factors outside of your control, but given a large enough sample size those inefficiencies in the statistic should even out. The alternative is to just make abstract arguments about a players defensive instincts or positioning which you can point out in tape but doesn't really provide any indication of what a player is like over long time periods. Again I'm not saying that advanced statistics are a perfect quantification of how good a defenseman is but I don't think they should be dismissed as useless either just because they are imperfect.

If I said advanced stats were useless I was being dramatic, they are a tool for quantifying and confirming what you see with your eyes. I just haven't seen any that more well for d-men, not that I've done a lot of research either.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

If nothing else, we need to keep our slower defenders from rushing into the O zone only to let the puck get past them on the boards. I can't remember how many times that led to an odd-man rush against us this year (usually because of Subban or Ellis). It seemed like a systemic problem, so hopefully the coaching staff will move away from having our D play so aggressively and letting the forwards do more of the work.

This is something I've been talking about for a while now. Josi was the worst when he was trying to carry play. He would have extended periods of time when he was low in the zone and inevitably there would be a breakout against Ellis and a forward or the forward would get antsy and drop down low too leaving only Ellis to defend an odd man rush.
I'm not sure which scenario was more dangerous. At least in the odd man situation Ellis knew his job and could make a play without hesitation. In a 2v2 against with a forward the opponent would always attack the forward and most of the time Ellis would over play that situation because he had no confidence in the forward to make the play. That would leave too much room for the other attacker to get open and make a play to the net or to a third man in the Josi was trying to catch from behind. Not all of these situations wound up being goals but they almost always turned into and extended shift pinned in the d-zone because everyone was scrambling around like mites.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Yeah, there were soooo many issues with those types of plays. I really want to like it when Josi carries the puck and joins the rush because he has the talent to do it, for sure. But there needs to be some awareness from the rest of the team when he does. He could be a more effective weapon. But so often it just went against us instead. Part of it is Ellis is the wrong partner for him. Part of it is our forwards (or the ones he tended to jump up with anyway) didn't seem to know who, if anybody, should try to cover for him.

 

[LCPreds]

What would you rather have in a top 4 d man? And which do you think we actually have on the roster now that Subban is gone?

Ability to drive offense?

Ability to shut down opposition and exit the d zone under duress?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

What would you rather have in a top 4 d man? And which do you think we actually have on the roster now that Subban is gone?

Ability to drive offense?

Ability to shut down opposition and exit the d zone under duress?

Well right now I'd take Door #2 --- somebody like that to put on the pairing with Josi.

Which at his best, Subban was capable of doing. Just they never really ran it that way them as a pair, to our eternal consternation.

 

[triggrman]

The NHL in the last 2 seasons has gone to a more chip and go breakouts from defenders. We can do that, Ekhom especially. This is also safer and the faster way of breaking out if you have speed up front. I don’t know if we do right now

 

[Arthur Morgan]

With PK gone, what are the chances Freddy Allard gets a view at the NHL level?

 

[PredsV82]

With PK gone, what are the chances Freddy Allard gets a view at the NHL level?

Only in the circumstance of multiple injuries I would think. 8 defensemen currently on 1 way deals as it is

 

[Tysonson3]

At least now we can say the trade was Subban for Santini AND Duchene

 

[PredsV82]

Not that it means anything regarding the trade, but PK and Lindsey Vonn are engaged

 

[bdub24]

Who is this Subban everybody's talking about? You mean that dude on the NJ Devils? Sure, he's gonna bring more marketability to that team. That's about half his value to an org.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Are there any newer system prospect rankings that includes Davies? I'm a little out of the loop on the farm stats.

 

[FilthyScoresberg]

Are there any newer system prospect rankings that includes Davies? I'm a little out of the loop on the farm stats.

I’m with you on that.. every Devils fan I saw held high praise for him and expected him to make the opening night roster for them, so I believe he’s kinda a sleeper prospect for us, at the moment.

 

[triggrman]

I’m with you on that.. every Devils fan I saw held high praise for him and expected him to make the opening night roster for them, so I believe he’s kinda a sleeper prospect for us, at the moment.

Yeah, before the trade he was one of the top defensive prospects. After the trade he's looked at as a throw in.

 

[GoldOnGold]

Davies numbers are better than Fabbros and he played on a worse team IIRC.

 

[triggrman]

On paper they look identical.

 

[JimEIV]

I’m with you on that.. every Devils fan I saw held high praise for him and expected him to make the opening night roster for them, so I believe he’s kinda a sleeper prospect for us, at the moment.

Me being a Devil fan and a Northeastern grad, I certainly had high hopes for Davies but I don't think anyone considered him to be on the opening night roster. I think most Devil fans would have said it's Ty Smith's spot to lose.

If Davies was in New Jersey today he would be in a battle with Ty Smith for 1 left handed D spot. With Greene and Butcher being locks on the left side, only one spot was really open for potentially Smith, Mueller or Davies..

I think Davies is better than a good prospect he has been able to put up numbers everywhere he has played and leading a good Northeastern team in scoring last season was quite the accomplishment. He skates extremely well and has has excellent puck handling skills...no one ever really knows how a player is going to develop but I think Davies has all the necessary tools to be successful.

Good article talking about some of his positive attributes.

BURKE: What will the New Jersey Devils get from Jeremy Davies?

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Early reviews...

Davies... looks like he needs some time? Which is totally fair.

Santini... not even looking great in the AHL? I pegged him as a mini-cap-dump initially but he might not be doing even as well as I was hoping?

Subban... haven't watched a Devils game yet but I get the sense he's a little more like the version we had last season than the resurrected star Subban Devils fans were hoping for? He doesn't usually keep a low profile but do things seem a little quieter than normal from him?

Afanaseyev... seems to be settling in decently on a balanced and young-ish team in Windsor?

And then of course the rest of our team is flying and PP is 22% and the whole Duchene attack is working. D is a little suspect but it's more fun to be the top scoring team in the league. Fabbro is stepping up beautifully.

Early consensus...

Nobody here has any complaints! Everything seems to be going right according to Poile's plans on this, right?

 

[GoldOnGold]

Early reviews...

Davies... looks like he needs some time? Which is totally fair.

Santini... not even looking great in the AHL? I pegged him as a mini-cap-dump initially but he might not be doing even as well as I was hoping?

Subban... haven't watched a Devils game yet but I get the sense he's a little more like the version we had last season than the resurrected star Subban Devils fans were hoping for? He doesn't usually keep a low profile but do things seem a little quieter than normal from him?

Afanaseyev... seems to be settling in decently on a balanced and young-ish team in Windsor?

And then of course the rest of our team is flying and PP is 22% and the whole Duchene attack is working. D is a little suspect but it's more fun to be the top scoring team in the league. Fabbro is stepping up beautifully.

Early consensus...

Nobody here has any complaints! Everything seems to be going right according to Poile's plans on this, right?

I have to admit it's working out real well so far

 

[LaP]

I’m with you on that.. every Devils fan I saw held high praise for him and expected him to make the opening night roster for them, so I believe he’s kinda a sleeper prospect for us, at the moment.

The chances of a 7th round prospect to become a relevant NHL player are probably the same as winning the Powerball. I'm exaggerating of course but ...

 

[Adz]

The chances of a 7th round prospect to become a relevant NHL player are probably the same as winning the Powerball. I'm exaggerating of course but ...

We got a little relevance from Hornqvist (last overall pick--7th round) and Rinne (8th round). Maybe we should play the lottery more.

 

[triggrman]

The chances of a 7th round prospect to become a relevant NHL player are probably the same as winning the Powerball. I'm exaggerating of course but ...

Karlis Skrastins 8th round, 832 games played
Martin Erat 7th round 881 games played
Pekka Rinne 8th round, 628 games played (and counting)
Patrick Hornqvist 7th round 727 games played (and counting)
Those are David Poile’s 7th and up draft picks with the Predators.


That's a lot of PowerBall wins....