Nerdlinger
Hockey Noob
First off, please note that I have no personal investment in any hockey team or league or even in the sport itself. My main interests are in (1) organizing teams into geographic conferences and divisions and (2) trying to realistically and objectively anticipate league and franchise changes, regardless of the sport. When predicting, I make no claim that "this is how things will be." I'm just going for plausibility. So do not take it personally if your team relocates or anything like that in the scenario(s) I present.
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In this scenario, Las Vegas for whatever reason doesn't pan out as an NHL site, and Seattle and Quebec receive expansion teams instead. Also for whatever reason, the Coyotes and Panthers end up relocating to Hamilton and Milwaukee, respectively. I dare not go into detail as to how these changes happened, but ultimately it came down to money, as it always does.
With the NHL at 32 teams, the AHL and ECHL expand to 32 in kind. Following the recent trend, additional AHL franchises are purchased and relocated to sites closer to their new owners. Most vacated AHL sites receive ECHL franchises as compensation. A cascades of affiliation changes occur in concert with this, leading to a one-to-one correspondence between NHL parent, AHL affiliate, and ECHL affiliate by 2025.
So, without further ado, I present below how the three leagues could look as of 2025.
~~~~~~
Key:
() = NHL affiliate in parentheses
* = NHL parent team owns minor league franchise
All relocation notes [in brackets] are relative to the expected 2015-16 league composition.
~~~~~~
NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques [expansion]
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Columbus Blue Jackets
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Hamilton Bulldogs [was Arizona]
Milwaukee Admirals [was Florida]
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Totems [expansion]
Vancouver Canucks
~~~~~~
AMERICAN HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Binghamton Senators (OTT)
Laval Canadiens (MTL*) [was St. John's]
Providence Bruins (BOS)
Rochester Americans (BUF*)
Springfield Falcons (NJD*) [was Albany]
Syracuse Crunch (HAM)
Toronto Marlies (TOR*)
Trois-Rivieres Draveurs (QUE) [expansion]
Atlantic Division
Atlanta Gladiators (NSH*) [was Portland]
Bridgeport Sound Tigers (NYI*)
Charlotte Checkers (CAR)
Hartford Wolf Pack (NYR*)
Hershey Bears (WSH)
Lake Erie Monsters (CBJ)
Lehigh Valley Phantoms (PHI)
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (PIT*)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Wolves (CHI*)
Grand Rapids Griffins (DET)
Green Bay Gamblers (MIL*) [was Milwaukee]
Iowa Wild (MIN*)
Peoria Rivermen (STL*) [was Rockford]
San Antonio Rampage (TBL)
Texas Stars (DAL*)
Thunder Bay Bombers (WPG*) [was Manitoba]
Pacific Division
Bakersfield Condors (EDM*)
Fresno Firebirds (VAN*) [was Utica]
Las Vegas Wranglers (COL*) [was Springfield]
Oakland Seals (SJS*) [was San Jose]
Ontario Reign (LAK*)
Reno Renegades (SEA) [expansion]
San Diego Gulls (ANA*)
Stockton Heat (CGY*)
~~~~~~
"ECHL"
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Manchester Monarchs (NYI*) [was Idaho]
Portland Pirates (NJD) [expansion]
St. John's IceCaps (QUE) [expansion]
Worcester Bruins (BOS*) [was Brampton]
Empire Division
Adirondack Wildcats (MTL*) [was Rapid City]
Albany Senators (OTT) [expansion]
Elmira Jackals (BUF)
Utica Blizzards (TOR*) [was Gwinnett]
Atlantic Division
Norfolk Admirals (CAR*) [was Tulsa]
Reading Royals (PHI)
Toledo Walleye (DET)
Wheeling Nailers (PIT)
Southeast Division
Florida Everblades (TBL)
Greenville Road Warriors (NYR)
Orlando Solar Bears (NSH)
South Carolina Stingrays (WSH)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Midwest Division
Cincinnati Cyclones (CBJ)
Fort Wayne Komets (WPG)
Indy Fuel (SJS)
Kalamazoo Wings (HAM)
Central Division
Evansville IceMen (MIL)
Missouri Mavericks (STL)
Quad City Mallards (MIN)
Rockford IceHogs (CHI*) [was Alaska]
Southwest Division
Allen Americans (DAL)
Houston Aeros (LAK*) [was Manchester]
Tulsa Oilers (EDM*) [was Norfolk]
Wichita Thunder (VAN)
Mountain Division
Colorado Eagles (COL)
Idaho Steelheads (SEA) [expansion]
Rapid City Rush (CGY*) [was Adirondack]
Utah Grizzlies (ANA)
~~~~~~
Questions, comments, and constructive criticism as to the plausibility of the changes in this scenario are welcome and encouraged! I'm certainly willing to revise the scenario based on such feedback (and have already done so several times).
~~~~~~
In this scenario, Las Vegas for whatever reason doesn't pan out as an NHL site, and Seattle and Quebec receive expansion teams instead. Also for whatever reason, the Coyotes and Panthers end up relocating to Hamilton and Milwaukee, respectively. I dare not go into detail as to how these changes happened, but ultimately it came down to money, as it always does.
With the NHL at 32 teams, the AHL and ECHL expand to 32 in kind. Following the recent trend, additional AHL franchises are purchased and relocated to sites closer to their new owners. Most vacated AHL sites receive ECHL franchises as compensation. A cascades of affiliation changes occur in concert with this, leading to a one-to-one correspondence between NHL parent, AHL affiliate, and ECHL affiliate by 2025.
So, without further ado, I present below how the three leagues could look as of 2025.
~~~~~~
Key:
() = NHL affiliate in parentheses
* = NHL parent team owns minor league franchise
All relocation notes [in brackets] are relative to the expected 2015-16 league composition.
~~~~~~
NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division
Boston Bruins
Buffalo Sabres
Detroit Red Wings
Montreal Canadiens
Ottawa Senators
Quebec Nordiques [expansion]
Tampa Bay Lightning
Toronto Maple Leafs
Metropolitan Division
Carolina Hurricanes
Columbus Blue Jackets
New Jersey Devils
New York Islanders
New York Rangers
Philadelphia Flyers
Pittsburgh Penguins
Washington Capitals
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Blackhawks
Dallas Stars
Hamilton Bulldogs [was Arizona]
Milwaukee Admirals [was Florida]
Minnesota Wild
Nashville Predators
St. Louis Blues
Winnipeg Jets
Pacific Division
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
Colorado Avalanche
Edmonton Oilers
Los Angeles Kings
San Jose Sharks
Seattle Totems [expansion]
Vancouver Canucks
~~~~~~
AMERICAN HOCKEY LEAGUE
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Binghamton Senators (OTT)
Laval Canadiens (MTL*) [was St. John's]
Providence Bruins (BOS)
Rochester Americans (BUF*)
Springfield Falcons (NJD*) [was Albany]
Syracuse Crunch (HAM)
Toronto Marlies (TOR*)
Trois-Rivieres Draveurs (QUE) [expansion]
Atlantic Division
Atlanta Gladiators (NSH*) [was Portland]
Bridgeport Sound Tigers (NYI*)
Charlotte Checkers (CAR)
Hartford Wolf Pack (NYR*)
Hershey Bears (WSH)
Lake Erie Monsters (CBJ)
Lehigh Valley Phantoms (PHI)
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (PIT*)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division
Chicago Wolves (CHI*)
Grand Rapids Griffins (DET)
Green Bay Gamblers (MIL*) [was Milwaukee]
Iowa Wild (MIN*)
Peoria Rivermen (STL*) [was Rockford]
San Antonio Rampage (TBL)
Texas Stars (DAL*)
Thunder Bay Bombers (WPG*) [was Manitoba]
Pacific Division
Bakersfield Condors (EDM*)
Fresno Firebirds (VAN*) [was Utica]
Las Vegas Wranglers (COL*) [was Springfield]
Oakland Seals (SJS*) [was San Jose]
Ontario Reign (LAK*)
Reno Renegades (SEA) [expansion]
San Diego Gulls (ANA*)
Stockton Heat (CGY*)
~~~~~~
"ECHL"
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Northeast Division
Manchester Monarchs (NYI*) [was Idaho]
Portland Pirates (NJD) [expansion]
St. John's IceCaps (QUE) [expansion]
Worcester Bruins (BOS*) [was Brampton]
Empire Division
Adirondack Wildcats (MTL*) [was Rapid City]
Albany Senators (OTT) [expansion]
Elmira Jackals (BUF)
Utica Blizzards (TOR*) [was Gwinnett]
Atlantic Division
Norfolk Admirals (CAR*) [was Tulsa]
Reading Royals (PHI)
Toledo Walleye (DET)
Wheeling Nailers (PIT)
Southeast Division
Florida Everblades (TBL)
Greenville Road Warriors (NYR)
Orlando Solar Bears (NSH)
South Carolina Stingrays (WSH)
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Midwest Division
Cincinnati Cyclones (CBJ)
Fort Wayne Komets (WPG)
Indy Fuel (SJS)
Kalamazoo Wings (HAM)
Central Division
Evansville IceMen (MIL)
Missouri Mavericks (STL)
Quad City Mallards (MIN)
Rockford IceHogs (CHI*) [was Alaska]
Southwest Division
Allen Americans (DAL)
Houston Aeros (LAK*) [was Manchester]
Tulsa Oilers (EDM*) [was Norfolk]
Wichita Thunder (VAN)
Mountain Division
Colorado Eagles (COL)
Idaho Steelheads (SEA) [expansion]
Rapid City Rush (CGY*) [was Adirondack]
Utah Grizzlies (ANA)
~~~~~~
Questions, comments, and constructive criticism as to the plausibility of the changes in this scenario are welcome and encouraged! I'm certainly willing to revise the scenario based on such feedback (and have already done so several times).
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