Value of: Nolan Patrick

[Mick Jagr]

Think it’s safe to say that when and if he is ready to play again, he will likely get a conditioning stint in the AHL before jumping back to the NHL.

I'm saying keep him there for the entire year... dude has missed an entire year and didn't exactly light up the league in his first two years. Let him dominate and return to the NHL with newfound confidence. I'm pulling for the guy!

 

[Tripod]

I’d say 4,5-5
Some Flyers fans thought he will be Couturier-before-2017 type of a player at worst case scenario. But not even close, absolutely different cases. For me Patrick is more poor man Tavares type of a player.
Remember how one scout said before the draft, something like “Patrick without a puck remind me Phil Esposito and it’s not a compliment”. I was absolutely agree with this report and agree now

But remember, you also wanted the Flyers to draft Lawson Crouse over Provorov.

 

[Starat327]

But remember, you also wanted the Flyers to draft Lawson Crouse over Provorov.

Needs more Heavy.

 

[harrisb]

So that's a yes? You'd take 10th or 12th?
Moving on to the Sens 18th (nyi)...

If there is nobody on the board that lights our hair on fire and we just picked up Laf plus one of Byfield/Stutzle I’d think about it

down the middle for young depth we’d have Byfield/Stutzle, Norris, Patrick, Brown, Pinto, White, chlapik...Never a bad thing to have too many centre options, trade or move them to the wing.

 

[CapnZin]

I'm saying keep him there for the entire year... dude has missed an entire year and didn't exactly light up the league in his first two years. Let him dominate and return to the NHL with newfound confidence. I'm pulling for the guy!

I don't know if I would say that Patrick's game is predicated upon confidence and swagger. I would save that as a way to describe Shayne Gostisbehere's game. Patrick is a minute force; one that you notice only when he wants to be seen. Honestly, I think that's a lost art in today's skill-based NHL (Pitt has a similar player in Bryan Rust who I think fits the same description). Everyone needs to be an expert dangler and flashy, but Patrick just isn't that type of player. Of course, he'll pull out some skill-based moves, but he's sort of a 'master of the basics'.
----
I know most people throw the excuse of poor coaching to divert from the fact that maybe he's been disappointing, however, I think Patrick is a special case. He played under the worst coach in Flyer's history.

Patrick does most of his damage in the slot or near the HDCF% area - as most do. He's not much of a threat on the outside. Most of his 5v5 heat map scoring chances come from high-danger areas, but Hakstol's offense is a perimeter offense. The puck moves along the boards to defenders who then throw the puck on net. You can look at Gudas' metrics to see just how much Hakstol relied on the defense to create offense.

Patrick was also used as a shutdown center... yes, and we have Sean Couturier. Ranking TOI against these are some of the players where he played against the most:
1) Phil Kessel, 4) Josh Bailey, 5) David Krejci, 7) Jake DeBrusk, 11) Mika Zibanejad, 12)Evgeni Malkin, 22) Sidney Crosby, 24) Chris Kredier.
***Patrick played 3% of his total 2018-2019 TOI against Crosby and that is the 22nd forward ranked for TOI against. That's crazy considering the Flyers and Penguins only play 4 times a year. I didn't even list the top defenders he played against like Seth Jones, Rasmus Dhalin, Morgan Reilly, Nick Leddy, and more.***
Asking a 19/20 year old with an injury history as deep as his to come in and dominate getting more defensive usage than offensive usage (and against competition like this) is incredibly hard.


Hopefully he can return, but again, value is moot. Sorry for the book-long response, but people (not you) seem to cherry pick based on normative stats like +/- and raw data points. Context is key.

 

[LEIFey]

I'm saying keep him there for the entire year... dude has missed an entire year and didn't exactly light up the league in his first two years. Let him dominate and return to the NHL with newfound confidence. I'm pulling for the guy!

I would be ok with that. Whatever is best for his development. Though playing in the AHL means that he would be getting coached by Scott Gordon, who is not exactly a brilliant teacher. I think people over exaggerate about how bad he is, but he does leave much to be desired.

 

[bernmeister]

1. Flyers do not have incentive to deal him at all, given everything already discussed. Simply, most profit appears to be to hope any medical, both cumulative concussions and history of migranes, can be dealt with, via medication or otherwise. Taking less does not make sense for PHI unless/until cap maybe forces reconsideration.

2. One thing I don't remember seeing before in this thread is a conditional trade. I again refer to #1, there will/should be NO trade.
That said, the middle approach that addresses/alleviates/defeats risk is to say he gets a 4th, which can be upgraded by and add based performance availability, up to 1st/1st+ at some later date based on what NP produces.

 

[Flyer lurker]

1. Flyers do not have incentive to deal him at all, given everything already discussed. Simply, most profit appears to be to hope any medical, both cumulative concussions and history of migranes, can be dealt with, via medication or otherwise. Taking less does not make sense for PHI unless/until cap maybe forces reconsideration.

2. One thing I don't remember seeing before in this thread is a conditional trade. I again refer to #1, there will/should be NO trade.
That said, the middle approach that addresses/alleviates/defeats risk is to say he gets a 4th, which can be upgraded by and add based performance availability, up to 1st/1st+ at some later date based on what NP produces.

For record I get the conditions trade and there are so many way to circumvent the conditions if you are the other team. As sixer fan I remember back in the day Jayson Williams being traded for a conditional 1 related to time played and stats. And Nets made sure conditions were never met and made trade 2 2's. Very LEERY of any such a move.

 

[bernmeister]

For record I get the conditions trade and there are so many way to circumvent the conditions if you are the other team. As sixer fan I remember back in the day Jayson Williams being traded for a conditional 1 related to time played and stats. And Nets made sure conditions were never met and made trade 2 2's. Very LEERY of any such a move.

I agree and conditional deals are not nec limited to NP.
Obv, on a conditional like any other deal, both sides negotiate to agreement but if things not spelled out to nth degree. scenarios as you describe are not imaginary.

 

[Starat327]

1. Flyers do not have incentive to deal him at all, given everything already discussed. Simply, most profit appears to be to hope any medical, both cumulative concussions and history of migranes, can be dealt with, via medication or otherwise. Taking less does not make sense for PHI unless/until cap maybe forces reconsideration.

2. One thing I don't remember seeing before in this thread is a conditional trade. I again refer to #1, there will/should be NO trade.
That said, the middle approach that addresses/alleviates/defeats risk is to say he gets a 4th, which can be upgraded by and add based performance availability, up to 1st/1st+ at some later date based on what NP produces.

a conditional trade on games played or performance makes no sense for the flyers because the value of a 3rd or 4th round pick is absolutely minuscule in value in relation to what Patrick could be. If the Flyers can't recoup anywhere close to his real value, their best bet is to just continue to give him great medical care and hope for the best. By the time that 4th round pick amounts to anything, if at all, Patrick will have either began playing again and hopefully proven why he was a top 2 pick, or hes retired from hockey, and the Flyers opportunity loss was a 4th round pick. The only way this works is if the Flyers gets a teams first round pick now, and additional picks in following years based off of games played. And even then, no ones offering up a 1st rounder high enough (if at all) to make it worthwhile.

 

[Curufinwe]

I would be ok with that. Whatever is best for his development. Though playing in the AHL means that he would be getting coached by Scott Gordon, who is not exactly a brilliant teacher. I think people over exaggerate about how bad he is, but he does leave much to be desired.

I doubt Gordon will be around whenever the AHL resumes.

 

[Starat327]

I doubt Gordon will be around whenever the AHL resumes.

From your keyboard to god's screen.

 

[FlyguyOX]

Anyone saying he has no value is competely moronic. There is no risk in the Flyers keeping him, only High end 2C upside.

But hey, no value.

 

[CapnZin]

Anyone saying he has no value is competely moronic. There is no risk in the Flyers keeping him, only High end 2C upside.

But hey, no value.

I agree, but the sentiment is there. Right now, the risk analysis is too large to extend value since there isn’t accessible concrete information regarding his future.

That’s why a lot are saying it’s a moot point. Given Phillys investment in him, we have no reason to trade him. Given that there isn’t really anything concrete about his future, no other teams have a reason to trade for him.

He has value, just none worth exercising at the moment.

 

[bernmeister]

a conditional trade on games played or performance makes no sense for the flyers because the value of a 3rd or 4th round pick is absolutely minuscule in value in relation to what Patrick could be. If the Flyers can't recoup anywhere close to his real value, their best bet is to just continue to give him great medical care and hope for the best. By the time that 4th round pick amounts to anything, if at all, Patrick will have either began playing again and hopefully proven why he was a top 2 pick, or hes retired from hockey, and the Flyers opportunity loss was a 4th round pick. The only way this works is if the Flyers gets a teams first round pick now, and additional picks in following years based off of games played. And even then, no ones offering up a 1st rounder high enough (if at all) to make it worthwhile.

1. Just to be clear, I emphasized NP stays and is not, nor should be dealt.

2. As to an entirely hypothetical analysis, the whole point of the conditional is that the value of the asset now cannot be reasonably estimated as to its current AND near term potential. In the case of certain players, highly talented ones, there is the potential that like a flip of a switch, there can be a night and day dif between a talented scorer at full tilt and one playing at less than full ability.

The trading partner wants insulation, that is why there is only a minimal downpayment now. The afterpayment is made only after sufficient time can measure a player's actual production.

No one will give a 1st for NP as is now.
Certainly, no one will give a 1st down AND something later.

A measly 4th or similar mid pick is all PHI would get now. How much time a trading partner would want and how much they would pay once NP checks out is a matter of negotiation. But logic suggests it would be something like a min of a 1st after 2 years, with something further additionally possible another 2 or 3 years after that. But NP will have to, perhaps not actually play, but at least be available to be playing, x number of games per season (50?). Then on top of that, assists, goals and other measures have to be agreed upon beforehand and then tabulated. Games played alone is not enough.

So we are in agreement.
Even pushing it to fullest extrapolation, it is possible but implausible to construct even a hypothetical conditional deal for NP, as there are too many unwieldy variables, and even if you have an agreement as to, say points scored, any F could be played on third line rather than first to keep his totals down.

And besides again, PHI wants to keep NP unless overwhelmed and no one is going there.

 

[Tripod]

I believe....and someone can correct me if they know the exact info, that 2nd rounders have approx a 20-25% chance of ever becoming a NHLer.

So to me, would I rather have that 20-25% chance my pick becomes an NHLer, or are Patricks odds of coming back to be a NHLer more or less than that 20-25%? We already know he is an NHLer when healthy, so it's just the health.

Personally, I think Patrick has a better than 20-25% chance of coming back, so would never trade him for a 2nd...let alone a 3rd or 4th.

 

[ValeriKamensky]

But remember, you also wanted the Flyers to draft Lawson Crouse over Provorov.

you hurt me ((

 

[Mosby]

Bumping this. Has there been any progress at all with Patrick? Are the Flyers more/less likely to trade him now?

 

[Perennial]

3way deal...

Jets out: #10, #40
Jets in: Strome, Patrick

Flyers out: #26, Patrick
Flyers in: #10

Hawks out: Strome
Hawks in: #26, #40


Jets land a couple of young centers with upside... one of which is from Winnipeg

Flyers get the 10th pick in a strong draft

Hawks get a 1st and a 2nd to help restock their system

 

[Hunter368]

5 month old thread......no thx. Closed