Post-Game Talk: Nolan Patrick, We're Coming

[Frk It]

The Penguins had 5 consecutive top-5 picks which they used to select

Crosby
Malkin
Fleury
Staal
Orpik

Which goes to show a) It takes more than one HOFer to build a winning team b) Sometimes all you get is an average NHLer


Meanwhile, watching the last few games, we suck so bad in our own end. You remember those highlight packages they used to show of inept NFL teams in the 90s? You know the ones, where they had Tampa Bay players in the peach uniforms fumbling the ball all over the place and unable to pull off the simplest plays? Yeah, that's what we look right now. Our D corps is a complete car crash. Jensen seems to have the skill of being a second late on absolutely everything.

Orpik was drafted 18th overall. About the expected return there. You're probably thinking of Ryan Whitney, who was pretty good but had some flukey injury problems.

 

[Wyzer Plan]

Patrick is still going to be the most dynamic player in this draft. He will easily be the best player on the team in a couple years. While he isn't a generational talent he is still pretty much a lock for the first line.

 

[golffuul]

Hischier will be really good as well. Outside of the top 2, the draft could go sideways in a hurry, with teams drafting what they need versus where someone sits in the Scouting Ranks.

 

[Mount Suribachi]

Orpik was drafted 18th overall. About the expected return there. You're probably thinking of Ryan Whitney, who was pretty good but had some flukey injury problems.

Yes, you're right, thanks for the correction

 

[Mount Suribachi]

How are any of those players "average NHLers?" Are we doing that what-have-you-done-for-me-lately thing? Because Fleury has been a #1 for most of his career and has had been top 10 seasons, Orpik was a legitimate top 3 for many, many years, and Staal is a 2C who puts up enough points to warrant that title while perennially getting Selke votes.

I stand by my assertion that Orpik and Staal are average. Orpik is a defensive defenceman who was tarred and feathered out of Pittsburgh he was that bad. Staal has a career high of 50 points.

If we pick 2nd overall and only get Filpulla 2.0 as our reward (40-50 point two-way C) that will be a massive disappointment.

 

[Frk It]

I stand by my assertion that Orpik and Staal are average. Orpik is a defensive defenceman who was tarred and feathered out of Pittsburgh he was that bad. Staal has a career high of 50 points.

If we pick 2nd overall and only get Filpulla 2.0 as our reward (40-50 point two-way C) that will be a massive disappointment.

Staal was a below average pick for where he was picked. Orpik is average for a defenseman taken in the late teens. The two should not really be grouped together.

#2 pick on average produces a .79 PPG player.
Staal is a .57 PPG player for his career.

If you're curious what to expect from top 5 picks on average (from forwards taken 1998-2010)

#1 - .92 ppg, or 75 pt player
#2 - .79 ppg, or 65 pt player
#3- .68 ppg, or 55 pt player
#4 - .60 ppg, or 50 pt player
#5-7 - .49 ppg, or 40 pt player

 

[obey86]

Ahhhh yes, the unintentional tank. The worst kind there is. Also known as just being bad.

Which is pretty much every team in the NHL who gets a high draft pick, outside of a Buffalo type every few years.

 

[Bench]

Which is pretty much every team in the NHL who gets a high draft pick, outside of a Buffalo type every few years.

No it's not. All kinds of teams aren't competing for a Cup in any particular season. Just because they aren't actively "tanking" doesn't mean they are also playing for today.

Every season a handful of teams are actively rebuilding and playing their next generation of players while minimizing short-term solutions. They know that they probably won't win that season, but it's OK, they are looking to the next few years.

Sometimes these teams surprise and might dance with making the playoffs. And that's an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Think Toronto this season. Toronto isn't tanking, but they are also completely committed to the future. If their team bottoms out and ends up with another top 10 pick, that's kind of an expected result. It's not them "just being bad." If they keep their playoff position, that's a surprising return to the post-season.

Meanwhile, foil that with the Wings, who have leveraged their entire plan around making the playoffs. If you can't see the difference, I don't know.

 

[obey86]

No it's not. All kinds of teams aren't competing for a Cup in any particular season. Just because they aren't actively "tanking" doesn't mean they are also playing for today.

Every season a handful of teams are actively rebuilding and playing their next generation of players while minimizing short-term solutions. They know that they probably won't win that season, but it's OK, they are looking to the next few years.

Sometimes these teams surprise and might dance with making the playoffs. And that's an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Think Toronto this season. Toronto isn't tanking, but they are also completely committed to the future. If their team bottoms out ends ends up with another top 10 pick, that's kind of an expected result. It's not them "just being bad." If they keep their playoff position, that's a surprising return to the post-season.

Meanwhile, foil that with the Wings, who have leveraged their entire plan around making the playoffs. If you can't see the difference, I don't know.

Uh yes, if a team is not tanking and ends up with a top 5- top 10 pick then they just ended up being bad. Either you are tanking and trying to be bad or you aren't.

Toronto isn't tanking this year, so they obviously just ended up being bad. Now, you can say that it's ok given where they are in their rebuilding phase, and i'd agree, but that's an entirely different conversation. Make no mistake, the Leafs would like to make the playoffs this year and are trying to make the playoffs, but (if they do miss the playoffs) they just ended up being bad.

As for this part, the Wings weren't competing for a cup either this season.

 

[Bench]

You have a binary evaluation criteria I don't agree with.

As for this part, the Wings weren't competing for a cup either this season.

Now that's interesting. Because if you're not competing for a Cup, but you're also signing veterans to long deals and leaning on said veterans with a really lean stockpile of prospects in the system...

What the hell are you doing?

 

[Pavels Dog]

No it's not. All kinds of teams aren't competing for a Cup in any particular season. Just because they aren't actively "tanking" doesn't mean they are also playing for today.

Every season a handful of teams are actively rebuilding and playing their next generation of players while minimizing short-term solutions. They know that they probably won't win that season, but it's OK, they are looking to the next few years.

Sometimes these teams surprise and might dance with making the playoffs. And that's an unexpected and pleasant surprise. Think Toronto this season. Toronto isn't tanking, but they are also completely committed to the future. If their team bottoms out and ends up with another top 10 pick, that's kind of an expected result. It's not them "just being bad." If they keep their playoff position, that's a surprising return to the post-season.

Meanwhile, foil that with the Wings, who have leveraged their entire plan around making the playoffs. If you can't see the difference, I don't know.

Toronto is a bad example because they spent about a decade before this season hovering between borderline playoff team and "just being bad". No team has ever committed to a tank before simply being bad first.

 

[RedWingzz]

I seriously doubt Wings are picking top 3. They'll probably be around #8. In 5 years you can prove me wrong, but I doubt the BPA at #8 is better than Sheahan who was taken 21 in a deeper draft.

What are you talking about? How can you make a statement such as "I doubt the BPA at #8 is better than Sheahan who was taken 21 in a deeper draft". That is one of the most ridiculous things I've read on HF in a while. If you are going to make a bold statement like this at least follow it up with some insight as to why this is your point of view.

 

[Bench]

Toronto is a bad example because they spent about a decade before this season hovering between borderline playoff team and "just being bad". No team has ever committed to a tank before simply being bad first.

What they did before tanking doesn't change the fact they are rebuilding this year, and that if they drafted in the top 10, it would not be a failure.

The Wings drafting in the top 10 is completely unintentional, they are not rebuilding, and it's a failure.

THIS IS THE FOIL.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Nolan Patrick, we comin for you...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RfFBnoCL2qU

 

[jkutswings]

You have a binary evaluation criteria I don't agree with.

Exactly.

Are there exactly 16 good teams and 14 bad teams each year?

If Team A and Team B are fighting for the last playoff spot, down to the last day of the regular season, and Team A loses in regulation, but Team B loses in a shootout, does that mean Team A is bad and Team B is good?

Or if three teams each finish with 90 points. One was completely healthy, and stacked with veterans at the end of their career; one was filled with superb talent, but had 600 man-games lost to injury; and one was filled with developing ELC players.

I just don't understand why some fans think the destination is the only thing that matters, and the road traveled there is irrelevant.

 

[Flowah]

Exactly.

Are there exactly 16 good teams and 14 bad teams each year?

It's more like 23-25 bad teams and 7-5 good teams every year.

Uh yes, if a team is not tanking and ends up with a top 5- top 10 pick then they just ended up being bad. Either you are tanking and trying to be bad or you aren't.

Toronto isn't tanking this year, so they obviously just ended up being bad. Now, you can say that it's ok given where they are in their rebuilding phase, and i'd agree, but that's an entirely different conversation. Make no mistake, the Leafs would like to make the playoffs this year and are trying to make the playoffs, but (if they do miss the playoffs) they just ended up being bad.

A lot of the fans in Toronto, just check their message boards, know they're still rebuilding. Would they like playoffs? Some do and some don't. Some still want to tank this season and shore up their blue line, which isn't in great shape.

But it's not either tank or compete mode. There are "we're in the rebuilding process" modes. Do you really think any significant number of people in the Toronto organization or even among their fans expects to compete for the cup this season? They're all pretty cognizant of the fact they aren't contenders. That doesn't mean they're gonna be bottom of the heap though.

Players don't tank. GMs tank. You don't just flip a switch and go from tank to contender mode in an off season. The roster right now is too good to be last like we are. But they're still not good enough to compete. Shanahan isn't going to blow it up and undo all the progress he's made and the players aren't going to play worse intentionally. That means a limbo of sorts. Too good to be last, not good enough to compete. Rebuilding mode. They've got a few years now to swing some trades or get lucky with some d-men, hold that group together, and go from rebuilding to contending.

 

[obey86]

It's more like 23-25 bad teams and 7-5 good teams every year.



A lot of the fans in Toronto, just check their message boards, know they're still rebuilding. Would they like playoffs? Some do and some don't. Some still want to tank this season and shore up their blue line, which isn't in great shape.

But it's not either tank or compete mode. There are "we're in the rebuilding process" modes. Do you really think any significant number of people in the Toronto organization or even among their fans expects to compete for the cup this season? They're all pretty cognizant of the fact they aren't contenders. That doesn't mean they're gonna be bottom of the heap though.

Players don't tank. GMs tank. You don't just flip a switch and go from tank to contender mode in an off season. The roster right now is too good to be last like we are. But they're still not good enough to compete. Shanahan isn't going to blow it up and undo all the progress he's made and the players aren't going to play worse intentionally. That means a limbo of sorts. Too good to be last, not good enough to compete. Rebuilding mode. They've got a few years now to swing some trades or get lucky with some d-men, hold that group together, and go from rebuilding to contending.

Dont see how thats different from the Red Wings. Ken Holland has admitted multiple off-seasons in a row that the Wings aren't really cup contenders and they may not even make the playoffs in the coming season.

 

[obey86]

What they did before tanking doesn't change the fact they are rebuilding this year, and that if they drafted in the top 10, it would not be a failure.

The Wings drafting in the top 10 is completely unintentional, they are not rebuilding, and it's a failure.

THIS IS THE FOIL.

Why is it a failure if the Wings draft top 10 but not the Leafs?

Either team would be a bottom 10 team and trying to rebuild to be something better at that point. Leafs draft player A at #5, he's a young good prospect and part of their rebuild to become better. If the Wings draft player B at #3, he's a young good prospect and part of their rebuild to become better. Both teams suck and are drafting top 10, both teams are attempting to rebuild with their top 10 pick. I don't see the difference, other than the fact the Leafs may be farther along in the rebuild.

 

[obey86]

Toronto is a bad example because they spent about a decade before this season hovering between borderline playoff team and "just being bad". No team has ever committed to a tank before simply being bad first.

This message board seems to continually miss this point. Teams like Buffalo and Toronto started "tanking" for picks because they were already really bad.

The Wings are finally to the point Buffalo/Toronto were at before they started their tank (i.e. REALLY BAD) and i'd imagine starting this offseason the Wings will approach things differently now that they aren't a playoff team. Just like Buffao did. And just like Toronto did.

 

[Flowah]

Dont see how thats different from the Red Wings. Ken Holland has admitted multiple off-seasons in a row that the Wings aren't really cup contenders and they may not even make the playoffs in the coming season.

Umm.. Because Toronto is clearly on the upswing while we were holding steady at best and due for a steep decline to anyone paying attention.

When you're on the upswing, blowing it up because you didn't flip the switch from last to contender is dumb. You just undid all the hard work you did to assemble something that might compete soon.

When you're on the decline, blowing it up makes sense. Your best players are older and getting worse. You don't have anyone in the pipeline that can replace them. You need picks and prospects to restock. That's the perfect time to tank.

 

[Frk It]

This message board seems to continually miss this point. Teams like Buffalo and Toronto started "tanking" for picks because they were already really bad.

The Wings are finally to the point Buffalo/Toronto were at before they started their tank (i.e. REALLY BAD) and i'd imagine starting this offseason the Wings will approach things differently now that they aren't a playoff team. Just like Buffao did. And just like Toronto did.

This is why I think talking about how we should have started re-building (sorry I don't consider "re-building on the fly" an honest attempt at re-building) 2, 3, 4, or 5 years ago is pointless. Besides the fact that we can't change any of that.

But it seems like some people are even fighting re-building now, when we are already bad. Which is the more confusing part to me.

 

[Birko19]

Nolan Patrick is not happening folks, we're not bad enough.

 

[TheMule93]

Nolan Patrick is not happening folks, we're not bad enough.

Any team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at first overall

 

[TheMule93]

Colorado will only have a 20% at 1OA

 

[Birko19]

Any team that doesn't make the playoffs has a chance at first overall

Yes, but what are the percentage chances?