Confirmed Trade: [NJD/EDM] Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson ‎- Part 3

[McFlyingV]

You realize there were several threads that were basically dedicated to bashing him and calling him a bust right? If anything, he's underrated. Kid will never truly get his due because he's under 5'10 and people refuse to believe a player of his stature could ever succeed in this league.

Right... because everyone was in a coma the last decade when MSL won 2 art ross trophies, a heart, and a Stanley cup.

 

[zar]

SHHHHH!!!! Oilerbear will show up to call you a "mathphobe" and then use his analytics to "prove" how Larsson is better than Subban. Of course, since he claimed that Ference and Nikitin were better defensemen than Subban due to his "analytics", well....lol

The problem with the analytics crowd is the lack of context going hand in hand with the numbers. Raw data without any kind of contextualization can be manipulated to say anything. Data is easily manipulated without any context behind it. It is why I love oilerbear's posts. Comic gold, let me tell you.

I do not know why we need so many pages to say what everyone knows:

The Oilers overpaid. Simple.

Now, the interesting part is not if they overpaid (they did), it is whether or not they improved their team. I honestly think they did. As great as Hall is, Larsson was the bigger need. Lucie coming in to replace Hall and adding Larsson makes the Oilers a better team going forward. Size, strength, and being able to stand up for each other were all elements that Edmonton was missing. Lucie and Larsson (along with a year more mature Nurse) will make this Oilers team playoff bound. As long as McDavid avoids injury, of course.

Good post from a non-Oiler poster. That about sums it up.

Please show me anywhere on HF where the following exists...

Condition A - Most of the Oilers fanbase agrees (and many Oiler fans agreed, myself included, that we overpaid to get Larsson) that this specific Dman is better than Larsson.
Note: Don't even mention Shattenkirk - the Oilers are not trading Hall for a Dman with 1 year before being an UFA.

- AND -

Condition B - most of the fanbase of this specific Dman agree they would trade the Dman for Hall one for one.

... but yet somehow Chiarelli was supposed to pull this magical Dman, GM. and trade out of his ass.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Hey I mean that's all great, just keep repeating "Adam Larsson is a first pairing defenceman." to help you sleep at night. I did the same for half a season with Dougie Hamilton .

I don't even think the trade is that awful, Hall being the million dollar talent with a ten dollar brain. Doesn't change the fact that Chia just put his hopes for fixing a blueline that's been in disarray for 10 years on a 23 year old with a career high of 24 pts. Just kind of seems like half measures to me when a Weber or Subban were apparently on the market, ridiculous package or not. Now if he can get a Shattenkirk or Barrie back there as well I'll retract all criticism and applaud the bald moves.

I actually kind of respect Chia for taking a big swing at it with this and the Lucic signing, more than the last couple clowns did anyway.

We don't need to say it to ourselves. New Jersey fans have told us.

 

[bucks_oil]

Hey I mean that's all great, just keep repeating "Adam Larsson is a first pairing defenceman." to help you sleep at night. I did the same for half a season with Dougie Hamilton .

I don't even think the trade is that awful, Hall being the million dollar talent with a ten dollar brain. Doesn't change the fact that Chia just put his hopes for fixing a blueline that's been in disarray for 10 years on a 23 year old with a career high of 24 pts. Just kind of seems like half measures to me when a Weber or Subban were apparently on the market, ridiculous package or not. Now if he can get a Shattenkirk or Barrie back there as well I'll retract all criticism and applaud the bald moves.

I actually kind of respect Chia for taking a big swing at it with this and the Lucic signing, more than the last couple clowns did anyway.

Hmmm... not sure you read my post that closely. Especially where I said:

And most others (incl many cautious Oiler fans) are saying he's more of a 2nd pairing guy with an outside shot at a #2.

My point was that the expected return for Hall was a current #2D (all else, contract $$, length, etc being equal).

If you ask NJ fans, that's what we got...

More cautiously (that's where I am): What we got was a 2nd pairing D on a cheaper contract, signed for longer, still with #2 upside.

ON PAPER Chia definitely got a notch down that what was expected or fair... though those that said the desperation would pull the value down a notch expected that too.

And no... it's not half measures when:
1) there is no indication that Weber was available for anything other than a top-10 Dman in the league... we don't have one of those
2) All indications are that Subban was on the market and that Chia was trying to make it work... rumored package as ALOT... Drai or Hall + Klefbom or Nurse + #4. Are you saying that was a better option for us? To eviscerate Drai + #4OA just to upgrade from Klefbom to Subban? Yikes!

As for how I sleep at night... I'm a lot more comfortable with this:

Lucic McD Eberle
Pouliot RNH Pulju
Maroon Drai Yak

Klef xxx
Sekera Larsson
Davidson Fayne

Than I would be with:

Maroon McD Eberle
Hall RNH XXX
Pouliot XXX Yak

XXX Subban
Sekera XXX
Davidson Fayne

In the former situation we have only Larsson and Fayne playing a notch above their current abilities. In the latter we have a lot more holes to fill and limited cap space to do it... Subban would be nice, but we don't have the depth to compensate.

FINAL IMPORTANT POINT: Chia said in his presser that there was a reason the trade had to happen on the day that it did... several hours after Hall was traded, MTL for Weber happened. My take was Montreal informed him that they were going another way with Subban... maybe NSH/MTL took a little longer notifying players and making it public. If Chia waits longer, Shero can extract even more from him.

 

[stavs*]

so 3 threads of repeating how badly EDM got fleeced.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

so 3 threads of repeating how badly EDM got fleeced.

should hit 5 or 6 easy

 

[IranCondraAffair]

If it is any consolation Edmonton fans, I remember Ottawa got ****ing eviscerated by HFboards when they traded "Future franchise defenseman" Rundblad + 2nd for Turris.

 

[McShogun99]

If it is any consolation Edmonton fans, I remember Ottawa got ****ing eviscerated by HFboards when they traded "Future franchise defenseman" Rundblad + 2nd for Turris.

This is different. Hall is already established as one of the top forwards in the NHL. Larsson is trending upwards but it is still unclear on what he will become.

 

[IranCondraAffair]

This is different. Hall is already established as one of the top forwards in the NHL. Larsson is trending upwards but it is still unclear on what he will become.

The point isn't to show the similarities of the players or their development levels, just that the "value" of players is so susceptible to change and that getting bogged down in the "here and now" is so pointless as a result

Hall blows a tire next season and Edmonton makes the playoffs and Oilers look like geniuses even if the trade was a bad one at the time.

If you want a better example of a team trading a "star" forward like Hall in exchange for a young player in a position of need go look up the Barry Pederson trade.

Sometimes things work out in unexpected ways.

 

[jabes]

Let's say if these two trades of past two years are deemed fair

Myers, Armia, Lemieux, Stafford, 1st rounder(Jack Roslovic) = E.Kane, Bogosian, Kasdorf

and

Larsson = T. Hall

Maybe Bogosian and Kasdorf cancel Stafford and Lemieux so that leaves us with

Myers, Armia, 1st rounder (Roslovic) for E.Kane

Now where Hall > E.Kane, for these trades to all balance, Larsson would have to be better than the value of Myers, Armia and a 1st which happens to be Jack Roslovic.

No matter what way you put it, it's safe to say Buffalo heavily overpaid and New Jersey heavily underpaid.

 

[Hictor Vedman*]

You realize there were several threads that were basically dedicated to bashing him and calling him a bust right? If anything, he's underrated. Kid will never truly get his due because he's under 5'10 and people refuse to believe a player of his stature could ever succeed in this league.

So that's why you praise him? Because nerds raged and said he would amount to nothing because of where he got drafted?

Sorry, weak excuse to hold someone onto a pedestal. I don't care what people thought of him. Same as how I don't care how people think of him now.

In my own opinion, he's not the god tier player that people on this forum think he is.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Hall is elite and there is no doubt he breaks 70 points this season, if not 80+

He is the #3 LW with the ability to be #2. #3 ES scorer in the league since he came in, and is ONLY turning 25 this November.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Let's say if these two trades of past two years are deemed fair

Myers, Armia, Lemieux, Stafford, 1st rounder(Jack Roslovic) = E.Kane, Bogosian, Kasdorf

and

Larsson = T. Hall

Maybe Bogosian and Kasdorf cancel Stafford and Lemieux so that leaves us with

Myers, Armia, 1st rounder (Roslovic) for E.Kane

Now where Hall > E.Kane, for these trades to all balance, Larsson would have to be better than the value of Myers, Armia and a 1st which happens to be Jack Roslovic.

No matter what way you put it, it's safe to say Buffalo heavily overpaid and New Jersey heavily underpaid.

Who is Kasdorf? Is he a decent player? IMO value wise Bogo was >> Stafford as he was much younger and had a high draft pedigree. IMO Myers and Kane were the 2 biggest pieces in the deal with Bogo #3, the rest were just picks/prospects to even things out except for Stafford who IIRC was to be an UFA at years end and could just have easily have walked from Winnipeg as re-signed there.

 

[Larry44]

should hit 5 or 6 easy

Only question left is whether Shero held back any of the negatives to blackmail ChiaPet again.

 

[Roof Daddy]

Hall is elite and there is no doubt he breaks 70 points this season, if not 80+

He is the #3 LW with the ability to be #2. #3 ES scorer in the league since he came in, and is ONLY turning 25 this November.

Really? Because he didn't manage to do that with a supporting cast of forwards that included McDavid, Draisaitl, Eberle and Nuge. He now goes to a team where the top 2 guns are Henrique and Palmeiri, and the system is more defensive. I would be shocked if he duplicates last year's numbers.

 

[MikeK]

Really? Because he didn't manage to do that with a supporting cast of forwards that included McDavid, Draisaitl, Eberle and Nuge. He now goes to a team where the top 2 guns are Henrique and Palmeiri, and the system is more defensive. I would be shocked if he duplicates last year's numbers.

Have to agree here. If anything, playing in NJ will hurt his production. I will be shocked if he matches his production of years past. Not bashing NJ, they just don't play an offensive system and Hall will not have the same talent to play with.

 

[Mr Positive]

I think the coach in NJ will give Hall more free reign, and btw Hall will eat up those defenses in the east. I bet a breakdown of his scoring would show he was a lot more productive vs the east than the west. In general this was true for the Oilers as a whole. I hope Hall does really well for the Devils

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Really? Because he didn't manage to do that with a supporting cast of forwards that included McDavid, Draisaitl, Eberle and Nuge. He now goes to a team where the top 2 guns are Henrique and Palmeiri, and the system is more defensive. I would be shocked if he duplicates last year's numbers.

Prepare to be shocked

And you mean the same Palmieri and Henrique that had more points than everyone in Edmonton except Hall?

Thanks for the baseless opinion though!

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Have to agree here. If anything, playing in NJ will hurt his production. I will be shocked if he matches his production of years past. Not bashing NJ, they just don't play an offensive system and Hall will not have the same talent to play with.

Thanks for the insight, its quite clear you havent watched the Devils in a while because this isnt 2003 and they arent some defensive stalwart who lacks offense anymore.

I cant wait till Hall produced top 10 in scoring again and everyone goes 'but how? NJ is old and has no offense!!'

Wecome to 2016 my friends

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

I think the coach in NJ will give Hall more free reign, and btw Hall will eat up those defenses in the east. I bet a breakdown of his scoring would show he was a lot more productive vs the east than the west. In general this was true for the Oilers as a whole. I hope Hall does really well for the Devils

its sort of like...if NJ does well out of the gate....look out.

IF they don't......then mind...."the shoulders".

I think Hall gets them to playoffs if schneider holds. If not that room could get fugly.

 

[BeastoftheEast85]

This trade is a good match actually. You have the worst ES scoring team in the league picking up the 3rd highest ES scorer in the league. And one of the worst defensive teams in the league picking up a young Dman who performed well while having one of toughest assignments (in terms of match ups and zone starts) in the league. And is on his way to becoming one of the best defenders at defending in the league (which is what wins cups).

Devils maybe got better value but realistically if they added a few decent picks, those decent picks would most likely turn into roll players or busts anyway. Edmonton needed to make moves and for all intensive purposes they got what they wanted for what they wanted to give up.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

This trade is a good match actually. You have the worst ES scoring team in the league picking up the 3rd highest ES scorer in the league. And one of the worst defensive teams in the league picking up a young Dman who performed well while having one of toughest assignments (in terms of match ups and zone starts) in the league. And is on his way to becoming one of the best defenders at defending in the league (which is what wins cups).

Devils maybe got better value but realistically if they added a few decent picks, those decent picks would most likely turn into roll players or busts anyway. Edmonton needed to make moves and for all intensive purposes they got what they wanted for what they wanted to give up.

yep.

The Oilers offseason has basically been exactly what everyone has been saying they need to do for 3 years.

It was expensive but again......its exactly what everyone has been saying they need to do for 3 years. (trade a 1stOA for defense, add a big gritty veteran)

 

[Roof Daddy]

Prepare to be shocked

And you mean the same Palmieri and Henrique that had more points than everyone in Edmonton except Hall?

Thanks for the baseless opinion though!

Henrique 50 pts. Draisaitl 51 pts. Is there a new system for counting I'm unaware of? You may also want to consider ppg avg, considering McDavid and Drai both had a higher ppg avg than either of those guys, and Eberle was slightly behind Palmeiri (KP .69; JE .68). In this instance though, it would be unfair if I didn't mention Cammaleri for the Devils, but either way, you would have to be insane to suggest those guys somehow compare to McDavid/Drai/Ebs/Nuge.

Thanks for the insight, its quite clear you havent watched the Devils in a while because this isnt 2003 and they arent some defensive stalwart who lacks offense anymore.

I cant wait till Hall produced top 10 in scoring again and everyone goes 'but how? NJ is old and has no offense!!'

Wecome to 2016 my friends

2013-14: GF 27th GA 6th
2014-15: GF 28th GA 14th
2015-16: GF 30th GA 8th

Tell me more.

 

[Group Chat Legend*]

Henrique 50 pts. Draisaitl 51 pts. Is there a new system for counting I'm unaware of? You may also want to consider ppg avg, considering McDavid and Drai both had a higher ppg avg than either of those guys, and Eberle was slightly behind Palmeiri (KP .69; JE .68). In this instance though, it would be unfair if I didn't mention Cammaleri for the Devils, but either way, you would have to be insane to suggest those guys somehow compare to McDavid/Drai/Ebs/Nuge.



2013-14: GF 27th GA 6th
2014-15: GF 28th GA 14th
2015-16: GF 30th GA 8th

Tell me more.

Oh and here let me use defensive stats from past years to prove why Edmonton will be the worst defensive team in the league this year even though they improved the defense (kind of like how NJ did with offense)

The defense rests your honor.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I see everyone focusing on whether Halls offence will decline in NJ.
I think what people are missing is that he may very well become a better all round player in a system with more structure and where forwards are coached to play both ways.
I could see a slight drop in offence but I also expect Hall to improve as a player.
Heck, watching Kessel back check in Pitts is a pretty good indication of what a change can do even for a purely offensive player. This could help Hall take his overall game even higher.