Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[DRW204]

Ehlers isn't bad defensively:

Connor is quite bad, though...by both the eye test and fancies:

So they score about the same, but one of them far worse defensively. And some people are gung-ho to keep the defensive liability?

Source:
Ehlers WPG 1819
Connor WPG 1819

 

[Halberdier]

If you wanted to extend Ehlers sample size to playoffs to make it more fair in those 6 games he added zero points so 27 5v5 in 68.

I think there is a difference if you are playing with two biggest stars of the team in a line that works and has the biggest priority by coach when compared to playing in infamous ELL line combination that has never worked.

You are just comparing apples to oranges here.

Linemates, TOI, deployment does matter. A lot. Ehlers is a prime example of that. If #55&#26 really have to play together (they really shouldn't), Ehlers is simply the guy to use as an LW before Laine and obviously before Connor.

 

[Ippenator]

I think there is a difference if you are playing with two biggest stars of the team in a line that works and has the biggest priority by coach when compared to playing in infamous ELL line combination that has never worked.

You are just comparing apples to oranges here.

Linemates, TOI, deployment does matter. A lot. Ehlers is a prime example of that. If #55&#26 really have to play together (they really shouldn't), Ehlers is simply the guy to use as an LW before Laine and obviously before Connor.

The thing is really, that although I’m not the biggest fan of Ehlers, because of him having too often the blinders on in my opinion, he is still clearly the best fit to play with Scheifele and Wheeler at the same time. He really seems to work pretty well with them, so I really just don't get it why Maurice refuses to play Ehlers with them much, if he is so damn tied up in having Scheifele and Wheeler glued to each other from the hip anyway? This has been again and again a very strange thing about Maurice and his approach to the game.

Ehlers is honestly the most dependant on a real top class center out of the young talented winger trio of Laine, Connor and Ehlers. Then would come in my opinion Laine, so this is why I would still like to see ESL at least tried together for some good amount of games. Could be also interesting to see if CLW would really work well too. But these are combinations that Maurice just absolutely refuses to try, which is really a pity, as I think they could really have the potential of making the Jets a much better team with a clearly better top 6 than they have had for the last two seasons.

 

[Sperss1997]

Ehlers is honestly the most dependant on a real top class center out of the young talented winger trio of Laine, Connor and Ehlers. Then would come in my opinion Laine, so this is why I would still like to see ESL at least tried together for some good amount of games.

This is simply so wrong that I had to comment on this. EVERYBODY on the team is better off with Ehlers on the ice. Without exception! Whereas Ehlers is better off without most of his team mates it seems. Especially Laine. Ehlers should NEVER EVER be on the same line as Laine. And this also shows that Ehlers really do not give a f... whether Scheifele is his center or not. It also shows that Little is not the problem with the ELL line. It is Laine. Ehlers is doing quite well with Little as a center. Better than with Scheif.

 

[Sperss1997]

You cant say that about Connor and Laine. If Laine was a veteran he should not be on the ice 5v5, he is below replacement level as of now. Huge upside if he can learn how to play though with his off-the-charts-shot. Also always have Morrissey on the ice to watch his back (or Buff)!

 

[Sperss1997]

Ehlers did not have a good season offensively though compared to last season - BUT his total outcome was similar due to better defense. Unfortunately people tend to only award offense in the public opinion. No matter what, Ehlers should improve his offensive game next year.

 

[Sperss1997]

Connor and Laine in comparison
Easy to see where they get the points. They are on PP1 and Ehlers is on PP2. Both are net negative EV. Being on PP1 is something you earn though. Right now I do not see any room for Ehlers on PP1. Scheifele or Wheeler are both mandatory and with these stats for Kyle and Patrik they deserve their spot. PP1 line-up is mandatory with Buff as the 5th.

 

[Ippenator]

This is simply so wrong that I had to comment on this. EVERYBODY on the team is better off with Ehlers on the ice. Without exception! Whereas Ehlers is better off without most of his team mates it seems. Especially Laine. Ehlers should NEVER EVER be on the same line as Laine. And this also shows that Ehlers really do not give a f... whether Scheifele is his center or not. It also shows that Little is not the problem with the ELL line. It is Laine. Ehlers is doing quite well with Little as a center. Better than with Scheif.


View attachment 221713

Cool graphs, although no use to present me anything like Corsi in any form, as that stat has nothing to do with how well a player has played after all in reality.

I value only real game decisive end results like goals, assists, points and 5 on 5 goal difference when judging how well forwards have played after all. And when you really want to understand how Laine and Ehlers have played with different lines, you should see through all the seasons that they have been in the NHL at the same time, and you definitely need to add the most important and meaningful games, which are of course the playoffs games that they have played for the past two seasons. Zero goals in two playoffs and 0+0 from the last playoffs tells pretty much the story of the level of play, no matter who have been the linemates.

Sure Laine had a career low season, and so did Ehlers for sure too. Hopefully they both can bounce back next season. But for sure Ehlers has needed Scheifele to really produce well with his 5 on 5 play. That’s how it’s been for Laine too, but at least with Connor as the other winger and Little as the center Laine has had some pretty good stints even though they haven’t lasted long. But by the eye test they have clearly better chemistry and potential for having much better production than Laine and Ehlers playing together. With Laine’s and Connor’s productive shortish stints there was Little as the center, but there hasn’t been anything like that when ELL has been playing. Just a consistent offensive black hole.

All three, Laine, Connor and Ehlers need much more consistency to their play. But at least Laine and Connor have very impressive short span of production even with Little as their center, which hasn’t happened when Ehlers has played with Little.

 

[QuietContrarian]

NHL Trade Rumor: Nikolai Ehlers is on his way out of Winnipeg

Ehlers won’t be a Jet come season opener.

I am almost 100% sure.

 

[Mud Turtle]

NHL Trade Rumor: Nikolai Ehlers is on his way out of Winnipeg

Ehlers won’t be a Jet come season opener.

I am almost 100% sure.

No! Just no!

 

[Jets 31]

This article also says McJesus wants out of Edmonton and will be traded .

 

[MardyBum]

If we're going to trade Ehlers for Risto to improve our defense why not just put Ehlers at D

 

[QuietContrarian]

This article also says McJesus wants out of Edmonton and will be traded .

The original Ehlers trade quote comes from Friedman.

 

[jetsforever]

We better not trade Ehlers (although I don't think we will)

 

[Whileee]

NHL Trade Rumor: Nikolai Ehlers is on his way out of Winnipeg

Ehlers won’t be a Jet come season opener.

I am almost 100% sure.

I highly doubt it.

 

[Board Bard]

Trade Ehlers and keep Maurice. That's a surefire path to success. Or failure, I can't remember which.

I just remembered -- it's failure.

 

[Jets4Life]

This article also says McJesus wants out of Edmonton and will be traded .

It's well known that McDavid never wanted to play in Edmonton in the first place. Lucic desperately wants out of Edmonton, and where there is smoke, there is usually fire. There is no doubt in my mind that McDavid almost certainly would want to play for just about any organization other than the Oilers, if given the chance.

Having said that, I don't think Edmonton will let go of their franchise player anytime soon.

 

[10Ducky10]

A trade centering around Ehlers and a re-signed Spurgeon sounds good to me.

 

[Neuf]

I'd rather have Ehlers, Connor, Laine for the next five years than 2/3 of those + Wheeler.

 

[TS Quint]

The fix for Ehlers is going to be pretty simple. When he gets all that speed and gains the zone he needs to stop going around the other teams goal. Same problem Buff used to have.

Players similar to Ehlers often do one of two things to be effective. They either stop at the half boards and set up the offense from there or they use their speed to back off the D and cut into the middle of the ice. Once a player goes around the net and is facing his own goal it's over. Once a player is facing the wrong way he's about as safe as a defender can make him.

 

[TS Quint]

Ehlers isn't bad defensively:

Connor is quite bad, though...by both the eye test and fancies:

So they score about the same, but one of them far worse defensively. And some people are gung-ho to keep the defensive liability?

Source:
Ehlers WPG 1819
Connor WPG 1819

I'm a little slow with these graphs still. Help me out. When Connor is on the ice The Jets give up a lot of shots around the goal?

 

[MardyBum]

I'm a little slow with these graphs still. Help me out. When Connor is on the ice The Jets give up a lot of shots around the goal?

Yep. There are (for) ones, which are ozone ones, and (against) ones, which are dzone ones.

Those two are Dzone ones for Ehlers and Connor. Blue = good, red = bad, especially the closer you get to the net.

 

[Whileee]

This fascination / enthusiasm for trading Ehlers is puzzling and troubling.

Ehlers should be considered a core player, going forward. Talent, speed and on-ice effectiveness are very high, especially considering his contract.

I think too many are forgetting how great he was in the first half of the season. He was less effective after coming back from a substantial shoulder injury, but that might be due to getting back from injury and getting bounced all over a chaotic line-up late in the season and in the playoffs.

 

[WPGChief]

Trading Ehlers would turn this team from a year-by-year contender to a bubble team.

I'm glad this rumour is only stemming from a random Freidman thought - let's look at it, shall we?:

15. I think Winnipeg is going to try and find a way to keep Brandon Tanev. It won’t be easy. He’s an unrestricted free agent who has worked hard to become an important player for them. They will also try to keep Ben Chiarot, another UFA. Then it gets tricky. It sure sounds like a bridge deal is coming for Patrik Laine. They want term for Kyle Connor — and the sense is he prefers that, too, but restricted free agent negotiations are a grind, now.

They’ve dangled Mathieu Perreault to ease their cap issues and are expected to do so again. The question is going to be, do they move someone else with a bigger salary? They really like Nik Ehlers, but he’s never scored in 21 playoff games. They’ll take time and think, because they do like his skill-set. But that could be a conversation. Jack Roslovic wants more of an opportunity, whether there or elsewhere. This may have changed, but up until late in the season, there were no talks with Tyler Myers.

I hope the internal conversation goes something along the lines of "should we trade a 23-year-old winger so we can have a better chance of keeping Tanev and Chiarot, and maybe bringing another defenceman? ...nah that's bloody stupid."

 

[TS Quint]

Yep. There are (for) ones, which are ozone ones, and (against) ones, which are dzone ones.

Those two are Dzone ones for Ehlers and Connor. Blue = good, red = bad, especially the closer you get to the net.

Thank you

I have a hard time making a direct link between the left winger and giving up shots where the centre and defensemen are typically responsible for. This is a case of something else happening.