Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[DannyGallivan]

As Murat pointed out in his article today about who stays and goes this offseason, Ehlers had better G/60 and P/60 production that Connor at 5v5 this year, despite Connor playing on the top line the majority of the time. And this was widely considered a disappointing year for Ehlers.

Playoff performance will also weigh heavily on what our team looks like next year.

 

[Gm0ney]

Playoff performance will also weigh heavily on what our team looks like next year.

Oh, I wouldn't be surprised if small-sample performance plays an oversized role in the decision making this summer.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Oh, I wouldn't be surprised if small-sample performance plays an oversized role in the decision making this summer.

small sample with much more importance. Some players up their games when there is actually something on the line.

 

[Channelcat]

Maybe he had a hairline fracture on his leg or fractured a hair on his leg

Probably broke while transitioning time zones.

 

[DashingDane]

small sample with much more importance. Some players up their games when there is actually something on the line.

Sample sizes are a thing... Look at some of the vets playoff production throughout the years. Ehlers is right on par to be as good of a playoff player as the captain.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sample sizes are a thing... Look at some of the vets playoff production throughout the years. Ehlers is right on par to be as good of a playoff player as the captain.

Which didn't you show in a previous chart isn't saying much. As wheeler as only been good in the playoffs the last 2 years. So how that helps Ehlers case I'm not sure.

 

[DashingDane]

Which didn't you show in a previous chart isn't saying much. As wheeler as only been good in the playoffs the last 2 years. So how that helps Ehlers case I'm not sure.

It shows just because you weren't good in a couple of playoffs that doesn't necessarily = that player never becoming a good PO performer.

 

[DRW204]

Blake Wheeler first 25 PO games 7 points in similar ATOI as Ehlers.

I am not ready to dump on Ehlers just yet....there are similarly skilled/style/sized players that have done well in the POs recently (Marner and Barzal come to mind). Eberle went 0-fer in 13 games with EDM a few years back and was labelled a no-show/soft, he had 4 goals in the sweep against PIT

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Judging players performance off of small samples in the playoffs is how teams make huge mistakes (Pisani, Bickell, Bolland etc.).

 

[Adam da bomb]

P/60 is a limited stat. After all the more you play the lower your p/60 will be. If you score 5 pts it's going to look better if you only played 20 min. It's easier to get a pt in 15 min but since only a number of goals are goin to be scored you can't maintain that rate for 30 min. Connor logged a lot of minutes this year doubt Ehlers got as many 5v5 minutes. so of course his p/60 was higher. But doubt if his total number of goals was higher.

 

[DRW204]

P/60 is a limited stat. After all the more you play the lower your p/60 will be. If you score 5 pts it's going to look better if you only played 20 min. It's easier to get a pt in 15 min but since only a number of goals are goin to be scored you can't maintain that rate for 30 min. Connor logged a lot of minutes this year doubt Ehlers got as many 5v5 minutes. so of course his p/60 was higher. But doubt if his total number of goals was higher.

KC - 35 5v5 pts (18 goals) in 82 games
Ehlers - 27 5v5 pts (16 goals) in 62 games.. Ehlers over 82 paced out at 35 points, but in slightly less minutes (per game) and id argue a worse lineup mix for the year

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

P/60 is a limited stat. After all the more you play the lower your p/60 will be. If you score 5 pts it's going to look better if you only played 20 min. It's easier to get a pt in 15 min but since only a number of goals are goin to be scored you can't maintain that rate for 30 min. Connor logged a lot of minutes this year doubt Ehlers got as many 5v5 minutes. so of course his p/60 was higher. But doubt if his total number of goals was higher.

P/60 is less limited than raw points because at least it takes ice time into account. That being said, I agree that an increase in ice time won't equal an equivalent increase in points, obviously it would be foolish to suggest it doesn't play a part though.

Scoring 10 points in 200 minutes is much more impressive than scoring 10 points in 400 minutes.

 

[Adam da bomb]

P/60 is less limited than raw points because at least it takes ice time into account. That being said, I agree that an increase in ice time won't equal an equivalent increase in points, obviously it would be foolish to suggest it doesn't play a part though.

Scoring 10 points in 200 minutes is much more impressive than scoring 10 points in 400 minutes.

Yep there are also other factors like you are more likely to score if your team is pushing down 1 and less likely if your team is defending. But what you say is sound logic.

 

[Adam da bomb]

KC - 35 5v5 pts (18 goals) in 82 games
Ehlers - 27 5v5 pts (16 goals) in 62 games.. Ehlers over 82 paced out at 35 points, but in slightly less minutes (per game) and id argue a worse lineup mix for the year

If you wanted to extend Ehlers sample size to playoffs to make it more fair in those 6 games he added zero points so 27 5v5 in 68.

 

[DRW204]

Agreed. Not all minutes are the same and it's obviously tough to predict how future minutes are distributed.

However I do think if Ehlers was given more minutes we'd be a superior transition team and spend less time in the def zone and more time up ice creating scoring chances.

P/60 is less limited than raw points because at least it takes ice time into account. That being said, I agree that an increase in ice time won't equal an equivalent increase in points, obviously it would be foolish to suggest it doesn't play a part though.

Scoring 10 points in 200 minutes is much more impressive than scoring 10 points in 400 minutes.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Trading Ehlers would be dumb. Maybe our system doesnt suit him, but does everyone want to see even more dump and chase? Maybe the major issue with the team overall is the system we play, dump and chase for zone time. Chip and chase the puck out of our own end too.

Ehlers would thrive playing under a coach who focuses on creating chances off the rush.

If we stick with a dump and chase system Ehlers may never succeed here so then go ahead and trade him, however our team likely gets worse as soon as he is gone.

Most of our players would do better off the rush. Ehlers, Laine, Connor, Scheif, Wheeler, Roslovic. We have a talented speedy team, but play a grinding game of dump, chase and cycle.

 

[Howard Chuck]

This is a player issue - not coaching.
Ehlers is a Low hockey IQ speedster that cannot not drive a line.
He's able to gain access to the O zone but he doesn't have the hockey smarts or creativity to get it to his open wingers.
He always seems to be ragging the puck - likely because he doesn't know what to do with it.

This nothing against the player - he appears to have a great attitude and is always positive -
But, I don't see him as the line driver that some on here believe he is -

As a non-NHL player nor coach, I have always wondered how hard it would be to say to Ehlers and his linemates "Ok, Nik is going to skate the puck in, and you know he's probably going to be successful, so linemates follow in a second wave. When Nik is behind the net I want both other linemates available out front. Nik, look for them immediately as you pass behind the net."

Why would that be so difficult? Yet we almost never see it.

Sometimes I think I should coach ..... Not really

 

[Board Bard]

As Murat pointed out in his article today about who stays and goes this offseason, Ehlers had better G/60 and P/60 production that Connor at 5v5 this year, despite Connor playing on the top line the majority of the time. And this was widely considered a disappointing year for Ehlers.

Yes, but what was his zone time? That's what important to Maurice.

 

[Gm0ney]

Ehlers isn't bad defensively:

Connor is quite bad, though...by both the eye test and fancies:

So they score about the same, but one of them far worse defensively. And some people are gung-ho to keep the defensive liability?

Source:
Ehlers WPG 1819
Connor WPG 1819

 

[Board Bard]

P/60 is a limited stat. After all the more you play the lower your p/60 will be. If you score 5 pts it's going to look better if you only played 20 min. It's easier to get a pt in 15 min but since only a number of goals are goin to be scored you can't maintain that rate for 30 min. Connor logged a lot of minutes this year doubt Ehlers got as many 5v5 minutes. so of course his p/60 was higher. But doubt if his total number of goals was higher.

I sense a Nobel Prize for mathematics coming soon. For some guy living in China.

 

[buyinnow]

Most of our players would do better off the rush. Ehlers, Laine, Connor, Scheif, Wheeler, Roslovic. We have a talented speedy team, but play a grinding game of dump, chase and cycle.

every team in the nhl would rather be a "off the rush " team.

Every team in the nhl plays a defensive structure at their blue line to limit puck carriers to a dump.

turnovers at the blue line are gifting the other team a scoring chance. Hockey 101.

 

[Eyeseeing]

Probably broke while transitioning time zones.

Or shaving

 

[Tommigun]

P/60 is a limited stat. After all the more you play the lower your p/60 will be. If you score 5 pts it's going to look better if you only played 20 min. It's easier to get a pt in 15 min but since only a number of goals are goin to be scored you can't maintain that rate for 30 min. Connor logged a lot of minutes this year doubt Ehlers got as many 5v5 minutes. so of course his p/60 was higher. But doubt if his total number of goals was higher.

That... makes no sense. Whatsoever.
You sure your Connor fanboyism isn’t playing tricks with your mind right now?

 

[Adam da bomb]

That... makes no sense. Whatsoever.
You sure your Connor fanboyism isn’t playing tricks with your mind right now?

Maybe??

 

[Howard Chuck]

every team in the nhl would rather be a "off the rush " team.

Every team in the nhl plays a defensive structure at their blue line to limit puck carriers to a dump.

turnovers at the blue line are gifting the other team a scoring chance. Hockey 101.

Ehlers is very good at it though. You either break through or you draw a penalty.