Player Discussion: Nikolaj Ehlers

[KingBogo]

Ehlers is a superior player to what he was in 2017, and our team isn't even remotely the same as it was that year. Last 2 years imo are a more representative basis of stats given the current line up. Even Scheifele isn't the same player as 2017, in a very negative manner though.

maximizing production would be to give the most efficient (at goal scoring/reducing goals) and effective lines the lion share of the minutes

i am not sure how a line-up of

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Stastny-Wheeler

isn't maximizing production.

Go look at any chart you want, Scheifele is never even close to a negative. Historically Scheifele and Laine have not been an effective pair. Laine brings Scheifele's possession numbers down with a marginal increase to his own and Laine's GF% doesn't rise as much when he plays with Ehlers. Agreed when played together Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine are probably our best line but I'd argue the impacts to the 2nd line would result in a net negative for the team.

 

[KingBogo]

I think assuming he likes being on the 2nd is quite the stretch. I'd say he tolorates it. He has always said he wants to be the best player in the world (I know that won't happen). But I don't think anyone states that and is then happy about being on the 2nd line.

I think he understands the 2nd line running through him is best for the team. Similarly when the Hawks were dominant they rarely played Toews and Kane on the same line.

 

[KingBogo]

Ehlers is definitely our best forward so the 1st line would run through him anyways.

It would only run through him through the neutral zone, once in the offensive zone it would go through Scheifele as he is the better offensive catalyst.

 

[DRW204]

Go look at any chart you want, Scheifele is never even close to a negative. Historically Scheifele and Laine have not been an effective pair. Laine brings Scheifele's possession numbers down with a marginal increase to his own and Laine's GF% doesn't rise as much when he plays with Ehlers. Agreed when played together Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine are probably our best line but I'd argue the impacts to the 2nd line would result in a net negative for the team.

never said he is a negative, i said he's not the same player as he was in 2017 in a negative manner, as in, he's regressed significantly since then notably on the defensive side of the puck

not sure how ESL and a connor-stastny-wheeler line is a net negative.

 

[10Ducky10]

KC Scheif Ehlers
Perfetti Stastny Laine
Harkins Roslo Apples
Gus Lowry Copper
MP

JMo DeMelo
Slamberg Poink
Heinola Poolman
Forbort/Boolow ... maybe Niku

oops forgot Wheeler!!!!!!!!!!

 

[KingBogo]

never said he is a negative, i said he's not the same player as he was in 2017 in a negative manner, as in, he's regressed significantly since then notably on the defensive side of the puck

not sure how ESL and a connor-stastny-wheeler line is a net negative.

I think a lot of what you attribute to Scheifele's regression defensively is playing with a much inferior defensive group. As a center if you have a grossly inadequate defense you either play as if they are capable of getting and moving the puck, or you play defense for them instead of your offensive role or some combination between. I've looked up the best defensive centers in the league and even the very best start taking a traumatic hit on their underlying numbers once you start isolating them with below replacement level defenseman like Scheifele had to spend a good part of last season playing with.

 

[ps241]

Why don't we want Ehlers to carry the 2nd line? Laine is a great goal scorer, but a poor possession player. Nik helps him get to the offensive zone where he can score goals. Probably our most dynamic line would be Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine but this would go against the balanced scoring everyone says they want.

I like Nik on the second line with Laine and Hopefully Paul this year. My hopes are with Laine and Ehlers growth they challenge CSW for the best line.

I would like to see Nik used as a top minute option 3 on 3. We struggle maintaining possession and he would be our best asset to keep the puck away. I would also like to see him get more PP usage. He is one of the top zone entry assets in the NHL so use him to shake things up on nights the 1st unit is struggling.

PK nope.

In short I believe Nik has passed Blake to become our most dominant play driver. We need to figure out ways to up his usage in all situations as Blake sunsets. Blake is still good I just think Nik has passed him as the main driver.

 

[buggs]

I think a lot of what you attribute to Scheifele's regression defensively is playing with a much inferior defensive group. As a center if you have a grossly inadequate defense you either play as if they are capable of getting and moving the puck, or you play defense for them instead of your offensive role or some combination between. I've looked up the best defensive centers in the league and even the very best start taking a traumatic hit on their underlying numbers once you start isolating them with below replacement level defenseman like Scheifele had to spend a good part of last season playing with.

I don't disagree with you in that the driver was a substantial decrease in quality on the blue line this past season.

But I sit in the non-attack zone at about the dot. Based on conversations on this board (I have and continue to learn a lot from others), I was kind of torn on the Scheifele defensive question so for much of the last season (this was an issue a bit the year before as well as the Jets played quite poorly after Christmas the season prior) so I watched him a lot on the defensive end. There were an awful lot of times when he was at the blue line and not making much of a defensive effort at all (pinch back, fill a lane, etc.) when the other team scored. Honestly it looked like he was a 15 year old kid at times waiting for the cherry pick pass to head his way so he could be the hero. Now I know it's not a center's responsibility to pinch all the way down and dig in the corners on defense so I'm not advocating that level of extreme but he so rarely even got to the top of the faceoff circle that it was noticeable.

Maybe that's Maurice's system to have the center play top of circle and come no further down, but Lowry plays it very different and whoever was centering line 2 was playing deeper as well. If it's a design in the system, my uneducated mind says that needs to be addressed. But anecdotally based on observation, Mark looked disinterested in playing much D many times.

Basically I agree we shouldn't be villifying Mark for the team's defensive woes but I'm not convinced that he really provided all that much help defensively either, or at least not as much as I'd seen in earlier seasons.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I think a lot of what you attribute to Scheifele's regression defensively is playing with a much inferior defensive group. As a center if you have a grossly inadequate defense you either play as if they are capable of getting and moving the puck, or you play defense for them instead of your offensive role or some combination between. I've looked up the best defensive centers in the league and even the very best start taking a traumatic hit on their underlying numbers once you start isolating them with below replacement level defenseman like Scheifele had to spend a good part of last season playing with.

The last season we had our defence sheif was playing horribly the last half in particular.

I don’t know what it is but it’s happened with a good defence and bad.

 

[surixon]

I don't disagree with you in that the driver was a substantial decrease in quality on the blue line this past season.

But I sit in the non-attack zone at about the dot. Based on conversations on this board (I have and continue to learn a lot from others), I was kind of torn on the Scheifele defensive question so for much of the last season (this was an issue a bit the year before as well as the Jets played quite poorly after Christmas the season prior) so I watched him a lot on the defensive end. There were an awful lot of times when he was at the blue line and not making much of a defensive effort at all (pinch back, fill a lane, etc.) when the other team scored. Honestly it looked like he was a 15 year old kid at times waiting for the cherry pick pass to head his way so he could be the hero. Now I know it's not a center's responsibility to pinch all the way down and dig in the corners on defense so I'm not advocating that level of extreme but he so rarely even got to the top of the faceoff circle that it was noticeable.

Maybe that's Maurice's system to have the center play top of circle and come no further down, but Lowry plays it very different and whoever was centering line 2 was playing deeper as well. If it's a design in the system, my uneducated mind says that needs to be addressed. But anecdotally based on observation, Mark looked disinterested in playing much D many times.

Basically I agree we shouldn't be villifying Mark for the team's defensive woes but I'm not convinced that he really provided all that much help defensively either, or at least not as much as I'd seen in earlier seasons.

I noticed all of this as well, he was really cheating in his end a lot last year. Maybe that is the design for the first line but that contradicts how Woodcroft said the Jets centers are instructed to play:

'Second quick': How the Jets and assistant Todd Woodcroft build, coach and use their centres

Per Woodcroft:

Woodcroft believes the centre ought to be the most responsible player on the ice. For him, that means several things:

1. The centre must be conscientious.
2. The centre is a “puck transporter.”
3. The centre must be responsible down low.
4. The centre must understand the importance of defending.

In each way, Woodcroft refers to the centre as the “central nervous system on the ice.”

In a perfect world, that means the Jets’ centres are the low players in the defensive zone and the high players in the offensive zone

The excellent two-way centres are the ones that play between the dots in all zones.

He stressed that the Jets want their centres swinging to the top of their own goal crease defensively to make themselves available as that “transporter”

I like Mark, but he wasn't reading from the playbook a lot last year in his end. As I mentioned a bunch of times, yes the defense needs to be fixed but our star forwards need to do a significantly better job there as well. Blaming the defense is easy and we could have an all world dcore but if Mark isn't doing what he is supposed to do then it hurts the rest of the team.

It is pretty easy to identify when someone isn't doing their job on the ice when you have the assistant coach give a very detailed explanation on how that positional player is expected to play.

 

[Adam da bomb]

In order for this team to work with the forwards we have no winger can earn 10 mil and 9.5 is pushing it because our forwards need to be supported by strong D and can’t make up for this shortcoming.

 

[surixon]

In order for this team to work with the forwards we have no winger can earn 10 mil and 9.5 is pushing it because our forwards need to be supported by strong D and can’t make up for this shortcoming.

Or maybe we should shift to an offensive strategy instead of a bunker defensive strategy. Maybe for this team the best defense is a good offense.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Or maybe we should shift to an offensive strategy instead of a bunker defensive strategy. Maybe for this team the best defense is a good offense.

We don’t have the horses for that either. Teams who do that like Tb who still had Hedman and mcdonagh the penguins with Sid and Malkin. Stastny and Schief are not that caliber. Fortunately we haven’t broke the bank with our forwards like TO has as long as they don’t get dumb with Laine.

 

[surixon]

We don’t have the horses for that either. Teams who do that like Tb who still had Hedman and mcdonagh the penguins with Sid and Malkin. Stastny and Schief are not that caliber. Fortunately we haven’t broke the bank with our forwards like TO has as long as they don’t get dumb with Laine.

We have never tried a more high event system under Maurice that focuses on properly exploiting our shooting talent in the ozone. It may not work but I think we would have more success then what we ran last year.

That or this team needs to make some foundational moves by trading some impact players to reshape the team. If you don't believe you can win with this core then you need to alter it.

 

[Adam da bomb]

We have never tried a more high event system under Maurice that focuses on properly exploiting our shooting talent in the ozone. It may not work but I think we would have more success then what we ran last year.

That or this team needs to make some foundational moves by trading some impact players to reshape the team. If you don't believe you can win with this core then you need to alter it.

But either way Ehlers is a keeper. Him, Helly and Schief.

 

[surixon]

But either way Ehlers is a keeper. Him, Helly and Schief.

I just think that our forwards especially Mark are capable of much better then what they have shown recently defensively. I tend to think that there is some tooning out of the coach going on here and Maurice can't seem to hold his vets accountable any longer.

But yes Ehlers is a stud and shouldn't be going anywhere.

 

[Weezeric]

I noticed all of this as well, he was really cheating in his end a lot last year. Maybe that is the design for the first line but that contradicts how Woodcroft said the Jets centers are instructed to play:

'Second quick': How the Jets and assistant Todd Woodcroft build, coach and use their centres

Per Woodcroft:

Woodcroft believes the centre ought to be the most responsible player on the ice. For him, that means several things:

1. The centre must be conscientious.
2. The centre is a “puck transporter.”
3. The centre must be responsible down low.
4. The centre must understand the importance of defending.

In each way, Woodcroft refers to the centre as the “central nervous system on the ice.”

In a perfect world, that means the Jets’ centres are the low players in the defensive zone and the high players in the offensive zone

The excellent two-way centres are the ones that play between the dots in all zones.

He stressed that the Jets want their centres swinging to the top of their own goal crease defensively to make themselves available as that “transporter”

I like Mark, but he wasn't reading from the playbook a lot last year in his end. As I mentioned a bunch of times, yes the defense needs to be fixed but our star forwards need to do a significantly better job there as well. Blaming the defense is easy and we could have an all world dcore but if Mark isn't doing what he is supposed to do then it hurts the rest of the team.

It is pretty easy to identify when someone isn't doing their job on the ice when you have the assistant coach give a very detailed explanation on how that positional player is expected to play.

Good analysis.

My view is that in his role as “transporter”, Scheifele is relying on passes from the defenceman to breakout effectively and if that pass doesn’t come then he’s left out of position, looking like an idiot. The Jets didn’t have the puck movers to breakout which makes everyone look bad.

Ehlers doesn’t rely on the defence, he’s a one man breakout.

 

[scelaton]

I get all that and all I am saying is we can't do the same things again this year. The dcore is improved but its still not great so is Mauroce going to double down on trying to tighten the hatches at the expense of everything else again or is he going to try to incorporate something based around the talent we actually have on this team.

I remain on convinced on this and I remain unconvinced the star players are really listening to him all that much at this point. Well maybe he isnt saying much to them given he doesn't coach them anymore.

Last year just pissed .e off something fierce and I have little face in coach.

Agree the D core is still not contention-level and I suspect there is another move in the cards before the season starts.
I am not at all pissed off about last season, as it was clearly not the Jets' year from the moment Buff walked away. There is nothing meaningful the team could have done to fully compensate for the wholesale loss of the strongest group of RDs in the league, so a mediocre playoff showing was my expectation. The fact that we got Perfetti at the end of it was an absolute gift--he has the potential to be the best player this team has drafted, and a reason for Laine to stay on. That remains a hope and prayer but so does Laine's upside.

IMO, people are blaming Maurice for a complex interplay of factors over which he has limited control or impact. And the consensus remains that he is a superb communicator, even if you disagree with, eg, his public airing Ehlers' deficiencies. Interestingly, it does not seem to have affected Nikolai's attitude, which underlines the point that, for a real professional, it's much more about the player himself than the coach.

 

[LowLefty]

Agree the D core is still not contention-level and I suspect there is another move in the cards before the season starts.
I am not at all pissed off about last season, as it was clearly not the Jets' year from the moment Buff walked away. There is nothing meaningful the team could have done to fully compensate for the wholesale loss of the strongest group of RDs in the league, so a mediocre playoff showing was my expectation. The fact that we got Perfetti at the end of it was an absolute gift--he has the potential to be the best player this team has drafted, and a reason for Laine to stay on. That remains a hope and prayer but so does Laine's upside.

IMO, people are blaming Maurice for a complex interplay of factors over which he has limited control or impact. And the consensus remains that he is a superb communicator, even if you disagree with, eg, his public airing Ehlers' deficiencies. Interestingly, it does not seem to have affected Nikolai's attitude, which underlines the point that, for a real professional, it's much more about the player himself than the coach.

Good post -
Always refreshing to touch on reality once in awhile -

 

[SCP Guy]

Yeah but I hear he is a small playoff no show so we should trade him for a gritty player and a late pick to improve our chances of winning the cup

 

[mondo3]

I wonder if Ehlers has the potential to play as a center? He's fast, can move from defensive to offensive zone better than most, and can score.

 

[JetsUK]

b/c chipman meddles

Yeah, that seems a strong possibility, especially given that weird announcement at the lunch thing.

I'd also say, "stubborn, with significant blind spots," rather than "dummy" (@Jets 31). All coaches have them, but some coaches have fewer and less impactful ones, and maybe the combination of blind spot + team matters more than we tend to think.

I don't think there's any world in which PoMo would agree that Ehlers is the Jets' best winger -- although he for sure offers praise where it's due on some aspects of Nik's play.

 

[TS Quint]

because no1 is able to carry the 1st line as it stands. id be a proponent of leaving ehlers on the 2nd line if we had a top line that performs magnificently, however that's not the case. they get outshot/outchanced constantly, and if it wasn't for Vezina goaltending last year, likely outscored heavily (as we saw in 2018).

over the past couple years, the top line has performed at it's best when it was ESW in 2018 (comparing top line combos over a large sample size of mins). I know efficiency stats are not always 100% predictive or a guaranteed, but ehlers produces shots/scoring opps/pts/and draws PP at a higher rate than any of our fwds, and should get a majority of the mins as top line wing to make this team overall better.

How exactly would ESL go against balanced goal scoring? our top goal scorer is KC and he'd be on Line 2 with Stastny and Wheeler. If Ehlers or KC can play RW could even roll with Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers. But Laine and Connor are basically the same analytically so i don't think it's a big difference.

How does the 2nd line perform when ESW are together?

 

[DRW204]

How does the 2nd line perform when ESW are together?

think the 2nd line was Connor-Little-Laine when ESW was together in 2018-2019. Laine had that great November on that line.

just want to clarify; not an advocate of ESW being the top line. Just using that as an example of Ehlers' effectiveness on the top line when he's been given that opportunity. If you have ESW as a top-line, I don't think Connor and Laine together on a second line is a good mix of play-styles. Yes, i know Laine had the great November 2018 but other than that i haven't been a huge fan of those together (pretty sure even with that great november CLL was under 50% in the GF% at 5v5)

i'd like to see

Ehlers-Scheifele-Laine
Connor-Stastny-Wheeler

 

[SUX2BU]

So, how about this Ehlers character...