Player Discussion: Nikita Kucherov - Part 2

[DFC]

Palat needs 200 more

Do you mean points? I mean games. Palat's at 480.

 

[Zwui21]

Over/Under 99.5 points for Kuch?

His pace gets him 99.3 over 81 since he missed a game.

I am going to take the over on that personally. He has 24 in 16 since the new year

Kucherov will get 105+ this season IMO.
He's getting 2 points a game and the PP isn't working.
Once the PP gets his shit together, he'll have multiple 4 point nights

 

[VinikToWinIt]

The biggest variance this year is in the amount of games where he has truly piled on points. Last year he had 18 games of 3+ points. Those 18 games accounted for a full half of his points - 64 of his 128.

This year he has 5 games of 3+ points, and none above 4.

Below are the percentages of games he played each year with 1, 2, and 3+ points.

Games with:	1 point	2 points	3+ points
This year	72%	38%	9%
Last year	76%	46%	22%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Sky04]

The biggest variance this year is in the amount of games where he has truly piled on points. Last year he had 18 games of 3+ points. Those 18 games accounted for a full half of his points - 64 of his 128.

This year he has 5 games of 3+ points, and none above 4.

Below are the percentages of games he played each year with 1, 2, and 3+ points.

Games with:	1 point	2 points	3+ points
This year	72%	38%	9%
Last year	76%	46%	22%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

There was a narrative on the last page that he is more consistent this year, that's not true. He went pointless in only 20 games last year, he's currently at 15 which paces out to be slightly higher this year, the major difference is as you pointed out is magnitude of those 3+ point games.

 

[The Macho King]

There was a narrative on the last page that he is more consistent this year, that's not true. He went pointless in only 20 games last year, he's currently at 15 which paces out to be slightly higher this year, the major difference is as you pointed out is magnitude of those 3+ point games.

And a lot of that is on the PP being a) more balanced than last year (second unit gets more ice and is effective), and b) slightly less ice time. And I'm fine with it. I don't really need him to score 128 in the regular season.

I mean - look we went 0-5 on the PP last night. We're 1 for our last like 30 or some nonsense. And we're on a 5 game winning streak and have lost three total games in the past 20. Our PP dried up in the postseason and our offense couldn't compensate 5 on 5. I'd rather win games like this than get dominated 5 on 5 all night but score 3 PP goals to pull out a win.

 

[DFC]

The biggest variance this year is in the amount of games where he has truly piled on points. Last year he had 18 games of 3+ points. Those 18 games accounted for a full half of his points - 64 of his 128.

This year he has 5 games of 3+ points, and none above 4.

Below are the percentages of games he played each year with 1, 2, and 3+ points.

Games with:	1 point	2 points	3+ points
This year	72%	38%	9%
Last year	76%	46%	22%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

At least part of that has to be the team clamping down on small leads rather than trying to run up the score. Last year we buried more than a few teams. And there were nights where we needed 6 goals to win. So I think part of it is situational.

 

[Sky04]

At least part of that has to be the team clamping down on small leads rather than trying to run up the score. Last year we buried more than a few teams.

It's not like they purposely ran up the score last year by sacrificing defense last year either, besides in a blow out game a player like Kucherov sees less time towards the end of it. They were still better defensively and gave up less goals last year than this.

The team just isn't as well oiled this year and we're seeing a lot hiccup games whereas everyone was just in sync last year.

 

[Zwui21]

There was a narrative on the last page that he is more consistent this year, that's not true. He went pointless in only 20 games last year, he's currently at 15 which paces out to be slightly higher this year, the major difference is as you pointed out is magnitude of those 3+ point games.

You may want to include that 8 of those 15 pointless games happened in the first month and a half of the season, where he was playing abysmal.

 

[Sky04]

And a lot of that is on the PP being a) more balanced than last year (second unit gets more ice and is effective), and b) slightly less ice time. And I'm fine with it. I don't really need him to score 128 in the regular season.

I mean - look we went 0-5 on the PP last night. We're 1 for our last like 30 or some nonsense. And we're on a 5 game winning streak and have lost three total games in the past 20. Our PP dried up in the postseason and our offense couldn't compensate 5 on 5. I'd rather win games like this than get dominated 5 on 5 all night but score 3 PP goals to pull out a win.

Yeah, we didn't score 5v5 in the playoffs but that's not because they didn't in the regular season, they were 1st in 5v5 goals last season along with a dominant PP, 2nd this year and even with a PP drought are still top-5. I guess if anything it'll teach them to be less reliant on the PP but at the end of the day it'll come down to if their RS play can translate into the playoffs.

 

[Sky04]

You may want to include that 8 of those 15 pointless games happened in the first month and a half of the season, where he was playing abysmal.

Which really doesn't matter cause it's still part of the season in whole...

 

[DFC]

It's not like they purposely ran up the score last year by sacrificing defense last year either, besides in a blow out game a player like Kucherov sees less time towards the end of it. They were still better defensively and gave up less goals last year than this.

The team just isn't as well oiled this year and we're seeing a lot hiccup games whereas everyone was just in sync last year.

There's definitely more attention to clamping down on leads though, much like the 2016 - 2018 versions of the team. Last year we would go up by 3 or 4 by the halfway point and put it on cruise control. This year we seem to tighten up with any lead at all, regardless of how much time is left.

 

[The Macho King]

There's definitely more attention to clamping down on leads though, much like the 2016 - 2018 versions of the team. Last year we would go up by 3 or 4 by the halfway point and put it on cruise control. This year we seem to tighten up with any lead at all, regardless of how much time is left.

I don't know... I'm not sure I buy this. Like look - yeah we're playing well, and we can all pretend everything is different and yadda yadda yadda, but the fact is, I won't believe shit until April. That's where this team needs to prove its balls.

Regular season is meaningless right now beyond qualifying. I don't care if they sneak in as WC2 and have to play Washington in round one - my level of "I guess they really changed" isn't going to be answered until it's best of 7.

 

[DFC]

I don't know... I'm not sure I buy this. Like look - yeah we're playing well, and we can all pretend everything is different and yadda yadda yadda, but the fact is, I won't believe **** until April. That's where this team needs to prove its balls.

Regular season is meaningless right now beyond qualifying. I don't care if they sneak in as WC2 and have to play Washington in round one - my level of "I guess they really changed" isn't going to be answered until it's best of 7.

I'm not saying it's any different at all. In fact, I think it's something we've done before--our playoff issue is always the offense drying up at the worst possible time.

Just talking about Kucherov. I just don't think we did it very much last year (the "We're up 2-1, let's just hold this" mentality), and I think that, along with the other things mentioned, has contributed to Kuch not seeing so many 3 and 4 point games.

 

[RussianGuyovich]

The kucherov paradigm on this board is so ridiculously dynamic.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I don't know... I'm not sure I buy this. Like look - yeah we're playing well, and we can all pretend everything is different and yadda yadda yadda, but the fact is, I won't believe **** until April. That's where this team needs to prove its balls.

Regular season is meaningless right now beyond qualifying. I don't care if they sneak in as WC2 and have to play Washington in round one - my level of "I guess they really changed" isn't going to be answered until it's best of 7.

Yea the team will likely play well enough to get in and maybe even well enough to overtake Boston for first in the division. Its important but at the same time, they need to get everything right for the playoffs and that is something we just cant know for sure until the time comes. We knew this season would feel long because of this. Good news is April isnt too far away and we will find out for sure how this team will do then.

I will say this if I was a betting man, you cant put your money on them to just figure it out. That is just hope and nothing more. They need to prove it first before its a bet that anybody I think would feel comfortable making. Like if I was a betting man, I would say that the chances are way higher that a team that has recently won one will take it home again this year. That has been the reality in the decade. Far more likely a team like Wash, Pitt, St Louis, or even Boston (who won it within the last decade) will win it over TB. As far as betting goes in my opinion.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

The kucherov paradigm on this board is so ridiculously dynamic.

and lazy, like those good for nothing russians.

 

[BowDownToVasilevskiy]

Pretty sure he's talking about games played and not points. In which case Palat needs 20 more.

Do you mean points? I mean games. Palat's at 480.

I have no idea why I said 200, I meant 20

 

[Zwui21]

Which really doesn't matter cause it's still part of the season in whole...

It does if you are talking about consistency. He hasn't been as consistent in the first month and a half, what about from mid november till now?

 

[Sky04]

It does if you are talking about consistency. He hasn't been as consistent in the first month and a half, what about from mid november till now?

No it doesn't, that's cherry picking data to make something look better than it is. Btw he only had 6 pointless games in October, he had another 6 in November, you're telling me to remove 1.5/4 months of the season to show that he's been more consistent than he actually is? I'm not sure removing 40% of the sample size of anything to reach a conclusion accurately paints the picture...

 

[LightningStrikes]

The kucherov paradigm on this board is so ridiculously dynamic.

We hatelove him!

 

[Zwui21]

No it doesn't, that's cherry picking data to make something look better than it is. Btw he only had 6 pointless games in October, he had another 6 in November, you're telling me to remove 1.5/4 months of the season to show that he's been more consistent than he actually is? I'm not sure removing 40% of the sample size of anything to reach a conclusion accurately paints the picture...

If you wanna prove a point about consistency you have to look at the trend too. The trend says that he's gotten very consistent since mid november.

But yeah, if you wanna simply shit on Kucherov and just look at the data as a whole, and not dig deeper, it's okay.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

 

[JoVel]

I assume that's a typo on Malkin unless they've played just three seasons in a decade in Pittsburgh.

 

[LightningStrikes]

6th in scoring now. Just like that.

 

[The Macho King]

6th in scoring now. Just like that.

Achoo.