Player Discussion Nick Suzuki Part X

[CHfan1]

How much more can he want though by having him play out next season? He is already coming off hype playoff run of people calling him a star and being on pace for 60+ points. If he puts up another 60ish points, the contract won't really be that much higher than a 60ish point player. Now if he breaks out with 70-80 points, we're basically looking at Barzal to Aho money. 90+ points (which he really hasn't shown to be that level) then we got ourselves a legit top 10 forward and he deserves his payday.

Big factor compared to pre-covid is players are screwed by fixed cap. We don't really have to worry as much, especially with Kotkaniemi/Romanov developing slowly and no one else outside Caufield looking for pay raises. In 2 years, lot more cap will be available to deal with it, Alzner's dead cap will be gone too.

He could be in line for $8 million + long term if he breaks out and it would not surprise me if he’s close to 75-80 points next season. Yeah that sounds high but in the 30 games he played with Caufield this season he had 13 goals and 29 points. Can he keep up that pace next season?

 

[Garbageyuk]

Oh I'll confidently predict he's in that 70 range going forward. He's only going to get better. Koivu had injuries and Pleks never looked as skilled as Suzuki did even at his best. And he sure as hell never played this well in the playoffs.

More than 7 would kind of seem pointless to me but 7 would be just fine. He could easily be worth more. 5 million seems impossible to me. 6 would be amazing.

What you don't understand is the gambling part. You wait then your chance at locking him up cheaper is gone. Anyone with eyes can see he's going to be a star. He's only 22. I don't know how much better he can be but I'd wager a pretty decent amount.

I'd bet on him with 8 years, 7M AAV no problem. He has ppg+ potential in his best years. I expect him to be in the 70-80 point range, mostly. Lock him up long term.

 

[Wats]

If we wait or bridge him, it will bite us in the ass, like with Subban.

Bridging Subban was mostly dumb because Bergevin literally did nothing with all the cap savings. It was horrible management. Either lock him up or maximize your cap with the savings. He did neither and I still can't forgive him for messing that core up.

I'm not saying don't sign Suzuki longterm, just don't think throwing 7+M after his first 2 years is actually cheap. That's the number he'd still get if he puts up 60-70 points next season based off of what other players are getting off their ELC. Only way it's saving is if he becomes a 80-100 point C.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

My point is more that 7M isn't really all that cheap. Aho signed for 8.45M x 5yrs offersheet after getting 83 points on his final year on his ELC (49/65 in 2 years before). Barzal for 7.0M x 3 yrs bridge after getting 85/62/(on pace for 71) on his ELC. With the cap not going up, not sure how 7.0M long term now for Suzuki will actually be a steal when the going rate if he does end up with 70 points next season is around 7M.

well 7 wouldn't be a 'steal' but it would be pretty damn solid. I don't know enough about Barzal and Aho but you also have to factor Suzuki's Bergeron-like D play which was in full display. Caufield's a potential top 5 goal scorer in this league (I'd even wager higher) he could put up really gaudy numbers next year with CC riding shotgun.

 

[McGees]

those are big numbers you guys are throwing around. Something around 6x6 I think is more appropriate

 

[Wats]

well 7 wouldn't be a 'steal' but it would be pretty damn solid. I don't know enough about Barzal and Aho but you also have to factor Suzuki's Bergeron-like D play which was in full display. Caufield's a potential top 5 goal scorer in this league (I'd even wager higher) he could put up really gaudy numbers next year with CC riding shotgun.

Aho is also high end defensively. Personally don't see them that good yet to give that huge cap hit. Would rather bridge them both when time comes and wait for Price to go the LTIR route in 3-4 years and then sign them longterm. Obviously if Suzuki wants 5-6M lock it down.

If they are superstars at the end of the bridge, so be it but it will likely mean Habs just had 3-4 years with underpaid Suzuki/Caufield covering overpaid Price making roster competitive. Hopefully Bergevin actually takes advantage of the cheap years.

 

[CristianoRonaldo]

those are big numbers you guys are throwing around. Something around 6x6 I think is more appropriate

If we sign Danault, good luck convincing Suzuki to only take a bit more than him, I would love it, but it's not realistic.

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Aho is also high end defensively. Personally don't see them that good yet to give that huge cap hit. Would rather bridge them both when time comes and wait for Price to go the LTIR route in 3-4 years and then sign them longterm. Obviously if Suzuki wants 5-6M lock it down.

If they are superstars at the end of the bridge, so be it but it will likely mean Habs just had 3-4 years with underpaid Suzuki/Caufield covering overpaid Price making roster competitive. Hopefully Bergevin actually takes advantage of the cheap years.

This is actually solid logic if they can be bridged.

 

[canucklover123]

I'd bet on him with 8 years, 7M AAV no problem. He has ppg+ potential in his best years. I expect him to be in the 70-80 point range, mostly. Lock him up long term.

he’ll be in his prime midway through that deal, that would be sweet

 

[KevSkillz4]

“The habs have no superstar” bro Nick Suzuki is literally the best player in the league

 

[dackelljuneaubulis02]

Aho is also high end defensively. Personally don't see them that good yet to give that huge cap hit. Would rather bridge them both when time comes and wait for Price to go the LTIR route in 3-4 years and then sign them longterm. Obviously if Suzuki wants 5-6M lock it down.

If they are superstars at the end of the bridge, so be it but it will likely mean Habs just had 3-4 years with underpaid Suzuki/Caufield covering overpaid Price making roster competitive. Hopefully Bergevin actually takes advantage of the cheap years.

but also as I think about it, It really depends on what kind of bridge contracts we're talking about.

What would you propose?

 

[KevSkillz4]

“The habs have no superstar” bro Nick Suzuki is literally the best player in the league

But more seriously, he is going to be a superstar C. No doubt about that.

 

[habdynasty]

He is just going to get stronger and faster, he has that elite hockey vision. Suzuki and Caufield is going to be a deadly pair. They won’t be cheap.

 

[tooji]

those are big numbers you guys are throwing around. Something around 6x6 I think is more appropriate

it all depends on how he does next season. If he breaks out to near ppg or better he will demand big $ and deservedly so considering his trajectory

 

[Archijerej]

If Danault walks, I don't expect a big breakout season offensively next year, but he's going to be our best forward for the next decade. Signing him long-term to a cap friendly deal is a priority.

I'd be much more careful with Caulfield's deal. The hype train is gaining too much steam for my liking.

 

[Habs Halifax]

those are big numbers you guys are throwing around. Something around 6x6 I think is more appropriate

There is no easy answer on this. But I do feel we need to get the deal in place before this next season starts.

The 23/24 season might be the season where the NHLPA pays off their outstanding balance due to Covid (or half way through that season). That's 3 more years according to the numbers I've been tracking. Then consider this... before Covid, the projected revenue indicated a $86 - $88M cap.

Then add:
- New US TV deals
- Seattle revenue

Here is what's likely to happen. Cap grows substantially after 3 years and good luck getting Suzuki signed past that 6 years when he is 28. I would absolutely engage on the 8 year term and $7M cause the value you will get from years 4-8 will be very good.

Risks apply in all situations.
- Bridge him for 2 years and the next one might be more than $7M
- Sign him to 6 years at $6M and the next one might be over $10M
- Sign him to 8 years at $7M and does he live up to it?

 

[Habs Halifax]

“The habs have no superstar” bro Nick Suzuki is literally the best player in the league

 

[Habs Halifax]

If Danault walks, I don't expect a big breakout season offensively next year, but he's going to be our best forward for the next decade. Signing him long-term to a cap friendly deal is a priority.

I'd be much more careful with Caulfield's deal. The hype train is gaining too much steam for my liking.

Does any Habs forward put up pt/game numbers next year? I still have my doubts even if I love how Suzuki and Caufield are looking.

 

[abo9]

If Danault walks, I don't expect a big breakout season offensively next year, but he's going to be our best forward for the next decade. Signing him long-term to a cap friendly deal is a priority.

I'd be much more careful with Caulfield's deal. The hype train is gaining too much steam for my liking.

doesn't Caufield have two more years left? I think we'll have a much better picture then.

As far as Suzuki goes, idk if we can compare to the Aho contract. Wasn't that contract designed to bring him to UFA super fast?
A long term contract to Suz might be pretty good especially if the cap goes back up in a couple years, but a bridge also makes sense with the state of the team

 

[26Mats]

doesn't Caufield have two more years left? I think we'll have a much better picture then.

As far as Suzuki goes, idk if we can compare to the Aho contract. Wasn't that contract designed to bring him to UFA super fast?
A long term contract to Suz might be pretty good especially if the cap goes back up in a couple years, but a bridge also makes sense with the state of the team

Suzuki has only out up 41 points as a career high.

He's going to have to put up a lot of points this year to hit the jack pot like Aho did. Aho had 30 goals and 83 points the year before his deal, more than double Suzuki's career high.

 

[abo9]

Suzuki has only out up 41 points as a career high.

He's going to have to put up a lot of points this year to hit the jack pot like Aho did. Aho had 30 goals and 83 points the year before his deal, more than double Suzuki's career high.

Oh yeah, but Aho also signed a contract that could bring him to ufa the fastest if I recall correctly. Signing players into UFA years has a cost.

Draisatl had one 51 pts, and one 77 pts seasons before signing his big contract. Everyone thought t was ridiculous. Now itms a steal. Not saying Suz is Drai, but management needs to look at his potential if they want to make a shrewd deal

 

[Archijerej]

doesn't Caufield have two more years left? I think we'll have a much better picture then.

Yes he does.

As far as Suzuki goes, idk if we can compare to the Aho contract. Wasn't that contract designed to bring him to UFA super fast?
A long term contract to Suz might be pretty good especially if the cap goes back up in a couple years, but a bridge also makes sense with the state of the team

I don't think we are going to see Aho-like production next season. Quality of the players aside, Aho had a hard matchups security blanket in Staal, Suzuki might not have that luxury if Danault walks. He will have his hands full trying to contain high end centers in our division. Next offseason might be an opportunity to sign him long-term below his future market value.

 

[McGuires Corndog]

Suzuki has only out up 41 points as a career high.

He's going to have to put up a lot of points this year to hit the jack pot like Aho did. Aho had 30 goals and 83 points the year before his deal, more than double Suzuki's career high.

You’re leaving out an important part, in 56 games. He was at a 60 point pace over 82, a pace he also maintained all through the playoffs this year as well.

Aho had 65 points in his 2nd season, and he played with better wingers (no doubt about that). They are on very similar trajectories.

I agree Suzuki needs a big year this season to get a similar contract, but he’s on a similar path.

 

[26Mats]

You’re leaving out an important part, in 56 games. He was at a 60 point pace over 82, a pace he also maintained all through the playoffs this year as well.

Aho had 65 points in his 2nd season, and he played with better wingers (no doubt about that). They are on very similar trajectories.

I agree Suzuki needs a big year this season to get a similar contract, but he’s on a similar path.

I wouldn't call Suzuki on a similar trajectory as Aho at all. It's a big jump to go from 60 points to 80bpoints. Just because Aho did it, doesn't mean Suzuki will do it or is on a trajectory to do it.

At any rate, I'll personally only be interested in discussing what cap hit Suzuki will be about to get after we see the numbers he puts up this upcoming season.

 

[26Mats]

Oh yeah, but Aho also signed a contract that could bring him to ufa the fastest if I recall correctly. Signing players into UFA years has a cost.

Draisatl had one 51 pts, and one 77 pts seasons before signing his big contract. Everyone thought t was ridiculous. Now itms a steal. Not saying Suz is Drai, but management needs to look at his potential if they want to make a shrewd deal

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