Speculation: NHL trade deadline

[Pez68]

the message that would be sent is that we are in a process of rebuilding and we are not there just because we are knocking on the door of mediocrity and possibly in the playoffs...

there is no reason to not make a few deals at the deadline to acquire some assets that assist in the rebuild which is a marathon not a sprint...

if there is no intention to resign the likes of Soda and Carpenter, perhaps Dehaan you absolutely flip them at the deadline...

People really overvalue draft picks here. Unless you're getting back 1st or 2nd round picks, it's pretty much pointless. Are those guys bringing back 1st or 2nd round picks? Nah. Any team buying is likely looking to make a run. So those picks are going to be late picks in whatever round you pick. The odds of a 2nd round pick playing more than 100 NHL games is like 17%. The odds of a 3rd round pick is even lower yet. Not only that, but players in those rounds take YEARS to make it to the NHL. Yeah, the Hawks are "rebuilding" but this doesn't look like a 4-5 year rebuild timetable. This looks like a team that will be ready to compete as soon as next season...

Thinking anyone is going to give you anything of value for DeHaan or Soderberg is quite optimistic. A guy like Carpenter is worth way more to your team in leadership and veteran presence, than he is in a draft pick that you get in return(he's signed for next season). Unless the Hawks are way out of a playoff spot at the TDL, you stand pat and let this team play it out. Because if they're close to the playoffs at that point, they've earned that right.

The draft is still completely up in the air, by the way, because of the COVID impact on junior hockey. So you don't even know what you're looking at.

 

[featherhawk]

People really overvalue draft picks here. Unless you're getting back 1st or 2nd round picks, it's pretty much pointless. Are those guys bringing back 1st or 2nd round picks? Nah. Any team buying is likely looking to make a run. So those picks are going to be late picks in whatever round you pick. The odds of a 2nd round pick playing more than 100 NHL games is like 17%. The odds of a 3rd round pick is even lower yet. Not only that, but players in those rounds take YEARS to make it to the NHL. Yeah, the Hawks are "rebuilding" but this doesn't look like a 4-5 year rebuild timetable. This looks like a team that will be ready to compete as soon as next season...

Thinking anyone is going to give you anything of value for DeHaan or Soderberg is quite optimistic. A guy like Carpenter is worth way more to your team in leadership and veteran presence, than he is in a draft pick that you get in return(he's signed for next season). Unless the Hawks are way out of a playoff spot at the TDL, you stand pat and let this team play it out. Because if they're close to the playoffs at that point, they've earned that right.

The draft is still completely up in the air, by the way, because of the COVID impact on junior hockey. So you don't even know what you're looking at.

Here is a link and a snapshot to 3rd round picks in the NHL Draft, do note that there are MANY, MANY successful players drafted in the 3rd round and beyond and some Hall of Famers to boot...

I added the link to the 4th rounders too and you will see once again that getting 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks for the likes of Soda and Carpenter at the draft is worth a shot.

Third round NHL draft picks - Active games played leaders

Rk	Name	Born	Pos	GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-	PPG	SHG	GWG	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP
1		Zdeno Chara	1977	D	1565	207	453	660	1964	294	93	8	35	0.132	0.289	0.422
2		Valtteri Filppula	1984	F	1029	192	324	516	340	-5	28	5	25	0.187	0.315	0.501
3		Frans Nielsen	1984	F	909	166	303	469	166	-36	34	20	20	0.183	0.333	0.516
4		Alexander Edler	1986	D	889	99	306	405	625	-33	46	1	9	0.111	0.344	0.456
5		Kris Russell	1987	D	855	46	191	237	261	-9	11	0	7	0.054	0.223	0.277
6		Cal Clutterbuck	1987	F	836	121	120	241	616	-23	12	15	22	0.145	0.144	0.288
7		Kristopher Letang	1987	D	819	127	415	542	586	63	43	4	24	0.155	0.507	0.662
8		Andrej Sekera	1986	D	770	47	197	244	194	4	10	3	6	0.061	0.256	0.317
9		Brad Marchand	1988	F	764	298	364	662	760	228	54	28	57	0.390	0.476	0.866
10		Adam Henrique	1990	F	679	189	193	382	208	-8	47	14	34	0.278	0.284	0.563
11		Jonathan Quick	1986	G	650	0	19	19	58		0	0	0	0.000	0.029	0.029
12		Craig Anderson	1981	G	649	0	18	18	54		0	0	0	0.000	0.028	0.028
13		Craig Anderson	1981	G	649	0	18	18	54		0	0	0	0.000	0.028	0.028
14		Alex Killorn	1989	F	597	133	184	317	343	82	24	3	26	0.223	0.308	0.531
15		Cody Eakin	1991	F	596	103	135	238	242	-3	11	10	17	0.173	0.227	0.399
16		Reilly Smith	1991	F	588	147	212	359	150	105	32	6	20	0.250	0.361	0.611
17		Tyson Barrie	1991	D	570	83	275	358	179	-70	23	1	19	0.146	0.482	0.628
18		Yannick Weber	1988	D	499	28	66	94	195	-28	12	0	5	0.056	0.132	0.188
19		Radko Gudas	1990	D	490	26	95	121	621	32	1	0	5	0.053	0.194	0.247
20		Brayden McNabb	1991	D	473	18	72	90	367	60	1	1	4	0.038	0.152	0.190
21		Vincent Trocheck	1993	F	437	118	177	295	276	-22	27	7	15	0.270	0.405	0.675
22		Adam Lowry	1993	F	421	61	71	132	215	6	6	3	11	0.145	0.169	0.314
23		Joakim Nordström	1992	F	411	31	37	68	75	-39	0	2	6	0.075	0.090	0.165
24		Colton Parayko	1993	D	400	40	127	167	117	58	16	0	9	0.100	0.318	0.418
25		Nick Deslauriers	1991	F	391	34	33	67	365	-59	0	1	5	0.087	0.084	0.171
26		Robert Bortuzzo	1989	D	381	16	42	58	378	38	0	0	2	0.042	0.110	0.152
27		Frederik Andersen	1989	G	381	0	9	9	26		0	0	0	0.000	0.024	0.024
28		Anthony Duclair	1995	F	363	79	89	168	117	1	23	2	10	0.218	0.245	0.463
29		Brett Pesce	1994	D	361	21	88	109	107	54	1	0	4	0.058	0.244	0.302
30		Shayne Gostisbehere	1993	D	347	51	149	200	123	-25	22	0	11	0.147	0.429	0.576
31		Nick Cousins	1993	F	337	42	61	103	152	-17	6	0	4	0.125	0.181	0.306
32		Bryan Rust	1992	F	320	81	99	180	104	38	10	5	13	0.253	0.309	0.563
33		Esa Lindell	1994	D	319	28	73	101	95	48	7	3	5	0.088	0.229	0.317
34		Jimmy Vesey	1993	F	318	61	52	113	84	-25	7	1	16	0.192	0.164	0.355
35		Mattias Janmark-Nylén	1992	F	312	51	67	118	80	-16	7	5	7	0.163	0.215	0.378
36		Brayden Point	1996	F	307	122	156	278	79	81	40	3	27	0.397	0.508	0.906
37		Evgeny Dadonov	1989	F	295	94	113	207	42	-15	26	0	12	0.319	0.383	0.702
38		Thomas Greiss	1986	G	294	0	3	3	12		0	0	0	0.000	0.010	0.010
39		Oliver Bjorkstrand	1995	F	261	69	76	145	58	29	10	0	11	0.264	0.291	0.556
40		Pavel Buchnevich	1995	F	260	62	93	155	75	-8	17	0	7	0.238	0.358	0.596
41		Adam Pelech	1994	D	259	12	52	64	84	29	0	0	1	0.046	0.201	0.247
42		Blake Coleman	1991	F	257	60	42	102	210	-13	4	9	8	0.233	0.163	0.397
43		Jake Guentzel	1994	F	255	102	107	209	100	17	21	1	10	0.400	0.420	0.820
44		Jujhar Khaira	1994	F	225	23	34	57	158	-36	0	2	5	0.102	0.151	0.253
45		Chandler Stephenson	1994	F	220	26	36	62	28	27	2	3	7	0.118	0.164	0.282
46		Oscar Sundqvist	1994	F	215	30	36	66	78	-5	0	3	4	0.140	0.167	0.307
47		Matt Murray	1994	G	211	0	5	5	8		0	0	0	0.000	0.024	0.024
48		Matt Grzelcyk	1994	D	203	10	47	57	134	45	2	0	1	0.049	0.232	0.281
49		Josh Leivo	1993	F	181	31	36	67	60	6	5	0	3	0.171	0.199	0.370
50		Anthony Cirelli	1997	F	180	44	60	104	74	70	2	6	10	0.244	0.333	0.578

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Fourth round NHL draft picks - Active games played leaders

 

[ClydeLee]

I'm fairly shocked so many people went with "be sellers" already... If this team is in playoff contention around the TDL, selling sends a bad message to the players. With how they are playing this season, and how hard they are working, I think that's a terrible idea. Selling off when they are close to a playoff spot may undermine progress being made.

Already?

Since September/ October it's been to be sellers. The entire offseaon of adding Janmark and Soderberg was for them to be sold off. To convince otherwise is the option. Default was not go in or stay status quo.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

I want them to move Strome. I've about had it with him. He's completely useless when not scoring and he's not scoring enough.

 

[Pez68]

Here is a link and a snapshot to 3rd round picks in the NHL Draft, do note that there are MANY, MANY successful players drafted in the 3rd round and beyond and some Hall of Famers to boot...

I added the link to the 4th rounders too and you will see once again that getting 3rd, 4th, 5th round picks for the likes of Soda and Carpenter at the draft is worth a shot.

Third round NHL draft picks - Active games played leaders

Rk	Name	Born	Pos	GP	G	A	P	PIM	+/-	PPG	SHG	GWG	G/GP	A/GP	P/GP
1		Zdeno Chara	1977	D	1565	207	453	660	1964	294	93	8	35	0.132	0.289	0.422
2		Valtteri Filppula	1984	F	1029	192	324	516	340	-5	28	5	25	0.187	0.315	0.501
3		Frans Nielsen	1984	F	909	166	303	469	166	-36	34	20	20	0.183	0.333	0.516
4		Alexander Edler	1986	D	889	99	306	405	625	-33	46	1	9	0.111	0.344	0.456
5		Kris Russell	1987	D	855	46	191	237	261	-9	11	0	7	0.054	0.223	0.277
6		Cal Clutterbuck	1987	F	836	121	120	241	616	-23	12	15	22	0.145	0.144	0.288
7		Kristopher Letang	1987	D	819	127	415	542	586	63	43	4	24	0.155	0.507	0.662
8		Andrej Sekera	1986	D	770	47	197	244	194	4	10	3	6	0.061	0.256	0.317
9		Brad Marchand	1988	F	764	298	364	662	760	228	54	28	57	0.390	0.476	0.866
10		Adam Henrique	1990	F	679	189	193	382	208	-8	47	14	34	0.278	0.284	0.563
11		Jonathan Quick	1986	G	650	0	19	19	58		0	0	0	0.000	0.029	0.029
12		Craig Anderson	1981	G	649	0	18	18	54		0	0	0	0.000	0.028	0.028
13		Craig Anderson	1981	G	649	0	18	18	54		0	0	0	0.000	0.028	0.028
14		Alex Killorn	1989	F	597	133	184	317	343	82	24	3	26	0.223	0.308	0.531
15		Cody Eakin	1991	F	596	103	135	238	242	-3	11	10	17	0.173	0.227	0.399
16		Reilly Smith	1991	F	588	147	212	359	150	105	32	6	20	0.250	0.361	0.611
17		Tyson Barrie	1991	D	570	83	275	358	179	-70	23	1	19	0.146	0.482	0.628
18		Yannick Weber	1988	D	499	28	66	94	195	-28	12	0	5	0.056	0.132	0.188
19		Radko Gudas	1990	D	490	26	95	121	621	32	1	0	5	0.053	0.194	0.247
20		Brayden McNabb	1991	D	473	18	72	90	367	60	1	1	4	0.038	0.152	0.190
21		Vincent Trocheck	1993	F	437	118	177	295	276	-22	27	7	15	0.270	0.405	0.675
22		Adam Lowry	1993	F	421	61	71	132	215	6	6	3	11	0.145	0.169	0.314
23		Joakim Nordström	1992	F	411	31	37	68	75	-39	0	2	6	0.075	0.090	0.165
24		Colton Parayko	1993	D	400	40	127	167	117	58	16	0	9	0.100	0.318	0.418
25		Nick Deslauriers	1991	F	391	34	33	67	365	-59	0	1	5	0.087	0.084	0.171
26		Robert Bortuzzo	1989	D	381	16	42	58	378	38	0	0	2	0.042	0.110	0.152
27		Frederik Andersen	1989	G	381	0	9	9	26		0	0	0	0.000	0.024	0.024
28		Anthony Duclair	1995	F	363	79	89	168	117	1	23	2	10	0.218	0.245	0.463
29		Brett Pesce	1994	D	361	21	88	109	107	54	1	0	4	0.058	0.244	0.302
30		Shayne Gostisbehere	1993	D	347	51	149	200	123	-25	22	0	11	0.147	0.429	0.576
31		Nick Cousins	1993	F	337	42	61	103	152	-17	6	0	4	0.125	0.181	0.306
32		Bryan Rust	1992	F	320	81	99	180	104	38	10	5	13	0.253	0.309	0.563
33		Esa Lindell	1994	D	319	28	73	101	95	48	7	3	5	0.088	0.229	0.317
34		Jimmy Vesey	1993	F	318	61	52	113	84	-25	7	1	16	0.192	0.164	0.355
35		Mattias Janmark-Nylén	1992	F	312	51	67	118	80	-16	7	5	7	0.163	0.215	0.378
36		Brayden Point	1996	F	307	122	156	278	79	81	40	3	27	0.397	0.508	0.906
37		Evgeny Dadonov	1989	F	295	94	113	207	42	-15	26	0	12	0.319	0.383	0.702
38		Thomas Greiss	1986	G	294	0	3	3	12		0	0	0	0.000	0.010	0.010
39		Oliver Bjorkstrand	1995	F	261	69	76	145	58	29	10	0	11	0.264	0.291	0.556
40		Pavel Buchnevich	1995	F	260	62	93	155	75	-8	17	0	7	0.238	0.358	0.596
41		Adam Pelech	1994	D	259	12	52	64	84	29	0	0	1	0.046	0.201	0.247
42		Blake Coleman	1991	F	257	60	42	102	210	-13	4	9	8	0.233	0.163	0.397
43		Jake Guentzel	1994	F	255	102	107	209	100	17	21	1	10	0.400	0.420	0.820
44		Jujhar Khaira	1994	F	225	23	34	57	158	-36	0	2	5	0.102	0.151	0.253
45		Chandler Stephenson	1994	F	220	26	36	62	28	27	2	3	7	0.118	0.164	0.282
46		Oscar Sundqvist	1994	F	215	30	36	66	78	-5	0	3	4	0.140	0.167	0.307
47		Matt Murray	1994	G	211	0	5	5	8		0	0	0	0.000	0.024	0.024
48		Matt Grzelcyk	1994	D	203	10	47	57	134	45	2	0	1	0.049	0.232	0.281
49		Josh Leivo	1993	F	181	31	36	67	60	6	5	0	3	0.171	0.199	0.370
50		Anthony Cirelli	1997	F	180	44	60	104	74	70	2	6	10	0.244	0.333	0.578

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Fourth round NHL draft picks - Active games played leaders

I'm not sure what your point is. I never said you don't find NHL players in those rounds. I said the odds are very low. And they are.

 

[featherhawk]

I'm not sure what your point is. I never said you don't find NHL players in those rounds. I said the odds are very low. And they are.

having a couple draft picks for guys like Soda and Carpenter is well worth it IMO given that the rebuild is not anywhere near complete...if you think that the hawks are going to compete for a Stanley cup next year I would respectfully disagree with your assessment or optimism. 3 or 4 years perhaps...

 

[Pez68]

having a couple draft picks for guys like Soda and Carpenter is well worth it IMO given that the rebuild is not anywhere near complete...if you think that the hawks are going to compete for a Stanley cup next year I would respectfully disagree with your assessment or optimism. 3 or 4 years perhaps...

Soderberg, sure. Sell him off for that awesome 5th round pick. Carpenter? Nah. More valuable as a vet presence next season. He is the type of player that helps your young bottom six guys grow. Which is more useful than a lotto ticket.

 

[Pez68]

I also wouldn't be surprised if this is the least active trade deadline in the history of the NHL. Between the COVID risk, and the mandatory 14 day quarantine for players going to Canada from the US, you're not going to see much movement. You're not going to see teams giving up much for rentals either.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Picks have always been overvalued. For some reason everyone wants picks over proven NHL players. It's crazy. The chance on hitting a solid NHL player in the 4th round or later is so miniscule.

 

[Kevin Musto]

Picks have always been overvalued. For some reason everyone wants picks over proven NHL players. It's crazy. The chance on hitting a solid NHL player in the 4th round or later is so miniscule.

Picks in the first 2 rounds are really important. After that, there's a big drop off in value.

 

[ChiHawks10]

Picks in the first 2 rounds are really important. After that, there's a big drop off in value.

Right. And the players people are talking about trading are going to get you 4th or 5th rounders, not 1st or 2nd rounders.

 

[ChiHawks10]

I'm not sure what your point is. I never said you don't find NHL players in those rounds. I said the odds are very low. And they are.

His own chart actually argued against him. There are only 50 players on that list with more than 2 seasons played in the NHL. Out of how many people drafted in the third round over the last decade, 300+? It's like 16-17%. Like 1 in 6 players will ever play more than 2 seasons in the NHL drafted in the 3rd round. So to want 4th, 5th, or 6th round picks for players who offer more value on the ice during the rebuild... is silly.

 

[Pez68]

His own chart actually argued against him. There are only 50 players on that list with more than 2 seasons played in the NHL. Out of how many people drafted in the third round over the last decade, 300+? It's like 16-17%. Like 1 in 6 players will ever play more than 2 seasons in the NHL drafted in the 3rd round. So to want 4th, 5th, or 6th round picks for players who offer more value on the ice during the rebuild... is silly.

Way less than that. Chara is on that list and was drafted in 1996. I think that's just a list of 3rd round picks by games played or something? Only active players?

 

[Pez68]

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

This is a really good breakdown of the chances in finding an ACTUAL NHL caliber player, by round. 3rd round is sitting at roughly 14% chance. Obviously the lower in the round you get, the lower those odds.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Right. And the players people are talking about trading are going to get you 4th or 5th rounders, not 1st or 2nd rounders.

With the way that Janmark is playing I think they could get at least a 2nd for him as a rental. He doesn't have nice fancy stats but he's producing.

 

[Pez68]

With the way that Janmark is playing I think they could get at least a 2nd for him as a rental. He doesn't have nice fancy stats but he's producing.

Or you could start having a conversation with him about an extension. He's a valuable player to have around the next couple seasons, as he can play anywhere. He's also only 28. Even if you can find a team willing to give up a second round pick, I would rather have Janmark... Even if you hit on that LATE 2nd rounder, they are at least 3-4 seasons away from contributing. Especially if they postpone this draft until 2022.


I think people are really overestimating what teams are going to give up at the trade deadline this season, as well.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Or you could start having a conversation with him about an extension. He's a valuable player to have around the next couple seasons, as he can play anywhere. He's also only 28. Even if you can find a team willing to give up a second round pick, I would rather have Janmark... Even if you hit on that LATE 2nd rounder, they are at least 3-4 seasons away from contributing. Especially if they postpone this draft until 2022.


I think people are really overestimating what teams are going to give up at the trade deadline this season, as well.

The Hawks have such a forward logjam and are trying to develop their young players, that I think it makes more sense for them to move out guys like Janmark and Carpenter with less team control. Ideally, I'd like them to move Strome too, but idk if he's worth anything in this environment. They should maximize value for Janmark, Soderberg and Strome at least, and make room for the young guys.

I mean Boqvist and Kalynuk should be playing in the NHL but they have de Haan blocking at least one guy.

 

[Pez68]

The Hawks have such a forward logjam and are trying to develop their young players, that I think it makes more sense for them to move out guys like Janmark and Carpenter with less team control. Ideally, I'd like them to move Strome too, but idk if he's worth anything in this environment.

I mean Boqvist and Kalynuk should be playing in the NHL but they have de Haan blocking at least one guy.

Logjam of forwards? They have a ton of prospects, who may or may not continue to play well. Carpenter and Janmark are known commodities, who provide a veteran presence. They both PK. They can both play the tougher matchups. You need those type of players when rebuilding. Let's all pump the brakes on some of these forward prospects. At least until they have 40-50 games under their belt.

There are two forwards dressing tonight that Carpenter would knock out of the lineup, if he was ready to go right now.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Logjam of forwards? They have a ton of prospects, who may or may not continue to play well. Carpenter and Janmark are known commodities, who provide a veteran presence. They both PK. They can both play the tougher matchups. You need those type of players when rebuilding. Let's all pump the brakes on some of these forward prospects. At least until they have 40-50 games under their belt.

There are two forwards dressing tonight that Carpenter would knock out of the lineup, if he was ready to go right now.

Highmore and Johnson I take it?

 

[Pez68]

Highmore and Johnson I take it?

Yep.

You can also develop young forwards in Rockford. It's not like these guys are too good for the AHL.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Hawks aren’t in any hurry. Once Carpenter is ready and Wallmark gets to full speed.
Johnson and Entwistle go to Rockford and play some big minutes. Even with Shaw unfortunate injury we have the nhl bodies for here.
Playoff positioning will tell the hawks whether to sell or stand pat.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Yep.

You can also develop young forwards in Rockford. It's not like these guys are too good for the AHL.

The only way bringing back Janmark makes sense is if Dach is the only injured forward returning next year.

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

I'd much rather have Carpenter than a fourth going into next year. Janmark I'd like to bring back but only if he's signing a reasonable deal.

I think we'll be sellers because this team is playing over it's head. Lankinen is likely to come crashing down to earth and we've got nothing but kids and a bunch of guys playing up the lineup. This roster is just missing too many key pieces.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Yep.

You can also develop young forwards in Rockford. It's not like these guys are too good for the AHL.

And they aren’t playing up here.

 

[Mrfenn92]

The only way bringing back Janmark makes sense is if Dach is the only injured forward returning next year.

No