NHL to Seattle Volume XV - Moving the Expansion Needle [Upd: 9/24 Arena Reno. Unanimously Approved]

[BKIslandersFan]

The major concern the NHL has in South Florida is local TV ratings are not good. When the numbers are broken down the eyeballs are in Broward and Palm Beach counties and Dade lags behind but the overall numbers are awful.

Once Seattle is approved they will be at 32 teams which gives them a nice balance between east and west. I can't see them going to 34.

The last expansion process was a sham - Bill Foley wanted a toy and was willing to pay $500 million for it and the BoG liked him.

Ottawa is the dumpster fire now and nobody knows what Melnyk is going to do.

The problem of TV ratings is not really a problem until Panthers put on consistently good product AND still nobody watches.

 

[Fenway]

The problem of TV ratings is not really a problem until Panthers put on consistently good product AND still nobody watches.

A valid point.

The Tampa Bay Lightning, Miami Heat and Tampa Bay Rays are televised on Fox Sports Sun, while the Orlando Magic, Miami Marlins and Florida Panthers are televised on Fox Sports Florida. The genius of this is splitting the Magic and Heat up and now both channels are viable statewide.

I personally think South Florida can be a solid NHL market

I was puzzled why the current Panthers owners gushed over a dying Wayne Huizenga earlier this year as while he founded the team he cashed out after he made the move to Sunrise.

 

[DutchShamrock]

I get the impression that Houston, for the west, and Ontario/Quebec, for the east, are being bandied about as destinations to have leverage in arena negotiations. I'm curious to see how Houston talks go after Calgary and Arizona get sorted out. Things could change in either city, but assuming both teams settle at home I would anticipate that Bettman doesn't allow any more Houston talk to leak from the NHL side.

And I would also anticipate that no one goes to Houston, expansion or relocation, until another target city gets put into the conversation. Establish another option before Houston is off the board. Like how Seattle was shoehorned into the Vegas talks then Houston emerged after Seattle inched closer to team #32.

There are some good points about getting into big TV markets, but maybe the answer is to take under performing teams and move them before you expand any further just yet. If the league wants to avoid the pitfalls from the late 90s-early 2000s, they cannot afford to expand too quickly.

 

[MNNumbers]

Shamrock....

Interesting thoughts. I guess I don't quite interpret things that way. I would interpret like this:

NHL has always wanted to be in Seattle. However, nothing opened up with Hansen's SODO project. Then, as soon as Seattle City Council offered a positive response to a remodel of Key Arena....BOOM. NHL is going there. There was hardly ever a time when Seattle was a credible threat (although supposedly it was used that way at one point in the Phoenix saga).

It seems more to me like this:
Foley came to the league wanting a team. NHL suggested he work with Vegas. That worked out well. Foley has lots of $$, and could get in on arena ownership there as well. So, it was the perfect market for him, even though it's not a place we would have anticipated at all.

Seattle has been a market in target for a long time.

Now....
Houston also presents as a target market. Huge media market. Hockey history. I think the NHL actually WANTS to be there. The thing stopping them right now is that Fertitta, who controls Toyota Center, doesn't want to pay NHL prices, and isn't a huge hockey fan.

I don't think the NHL really wants to go to either Quebec or Southern Ontario. I think they want to be in the major US cities, and the reason is that they hope that being in the major US markets will get them a bigger TV contract. (Whether it actually will help that or not is another question)

So, in this case in particular, I don't think it's a matter of leverage at all.

Although, since many arenas will be reaching the end of their leases within the next 12 years or so, that's an interesting question: What happens when Honda Center in Anaheim has its lease run out? And, many other places.

 

[powerstuck]

There are definitely going to be differences due to the circumstances, but the trend is pretty clear.

View attachment 141453

Your nice graph shows the difference between Quebec being ''deffered'' at 500M and Seattle being asked for 650M...in a way that Seattle could come next month with a 650M pricetag and Quebec could follow in two years with a 500M.

Also your Carolina numbers are kinda off because it's not for 100% of the franchise, so cannot be used at ''franchise value''.

There are some good points about getting into big TV markets, but maybe the answer is to take under performing teams and move them before you expand any further just yet. If the league wants to avoid the pitfalls from the late 90s-early 2000s, they cannot afford to expand too quickly.

Not sure this is a long-term solution. Of course the league needs to keep an eye on struggling teams, but the way the league does business, it cannot simply relocate from market A to market B when things get rough.

Most of the time, the league and the teams need public money (or help) to get arenas done or to live (Florida, Arizona a few years ago). The City of Seattle would never agree to renovate Key Arena for the NHL, knowing that if in 5 or 10 years, for whatever reason, things get difficult, the team will move away.

 

[KevFu]

Not for nothing, but prior to the Vegas expansion people said "I can't see expansion until the NHL resolves 3 issues: Arizona, Carolina and Florida." None of those were resolved before the NHL opened the expansion process. (Although Florida isn't the issue people think it is)

None of the NHL financial situations are "the issue people think it is." We talk about everything on this BOH forum as it regards to franchises with financial issues as if the guillotine blade is about the fail...

Arizona's issues have been going on 10 years (and 85 BOH threads). Team hasn't folded. And there's no "the franchise is packing the moving trucks" stories in the Phoenix press. In the last three decades, with about half the league facing issues that this forum said put them on their deathbeds, the only ones who've moved had no new arena being built when their lease was up in the 90s, or a team who's owners had no interest in the NHL and just bought them to get the NBA team & Arena, turned around and evicted the NHL franchise.

There's been FOURTEEN FRANCHISES that this forum claimed were on their deathbed (half of them multiple times). They're all alive and well.

 

[KevFu]

The major concern the NHL has in South Florida is local TV ratings are not good. When the numbers are broken down the eyeballs are in Broward and Palm Beach counties and Dade lags behind but the overall numbers are awful.

Dude, local TV ratings are pointless. TV ratings are compiled in an archaic process designed for three broadcast channels in the 1950s. My friend was a Nielsen family for six months in a Top 50 market. Through a series of trial and error and math, he discovered his opinion was worth 17,333 people.

If you take the "average viewers" of New Jersey Devils hockey from two years ago, and do the math on:
(Road Viewers - NJD Avg Attendance) + Home Viewers / 2 = Average viewers.

Knowing the average viewers and the average attendance, you reach a number of for fans of Devils hockey that is so pathetically tiny, your only conclusion can be that TV ratings are pointless.

 

[Fenway]

None of the NHL financial situations are "the issue people think it is." We talk about everything on this BOH forum as it regards to franchises with financial issues as if the guillotine blade is about the fail...

Arizona's issues have been going on 10 years (and 85 BOH threads). Team hasn't folded. And there's no "the franchise is packing the moving trucks" stories in the Phoenix press. In the last three decades, with about half the league facing issues that this forum said put them on their deathbeds, the only ones who've moved had no new arena being built when their lease was up in the 90s, or a team who's owners had no interest in the NHL and just bought them to get the NBA team & Arena, turned around and evicted the NHL franchise.

There's been FOURTEEN FRANCHISES that this forum claimed were on their deathbed (half of them multiple times). They're all alive and well.

Well we are an internet board, not the Board of Governors

 

[gstommylee]

Reminder 2pm tomorrow is the final vote for the arena agreement.

 

[TheLegend]

Well we are an internet board, not the Board of Governors

.... and there’s been almost double that number of Phoenix threads.

 

[superdeluxe]

This was a fun response to my tweet about a fight between Seattle and Portland last night.

 

[KevFu]

.... and there’s been almost double that number of Phoenix threads.

I need to bone up on my reading of roman numerals.

 

[Dirty Old Man]

None of the NHL financial situations are "the issue people think it is." We talk about everything on this BOH forum as it regards to franchises with financial issues as if the guillotine blade is about the fail...

Arizona's issues have been going on 10 years (and 85 BOH threads). Team hasn't folded.

Well, that's human nature for ya. People want change, whether it's out of jealousy or spite, or perhaps just mere boredom.

 

[TheLegend]

I need to bone up on my reading of roman numerals.

The current number in the last chapter doesn't reflect a couple of dozen side threads that were generated in the beginning. Used to be we'd have a master list (kept by kdb208) at the start of each thread but it got so big it almost qualified as it's own page.

 

[tony d]

I fully expect expansion to Seattle for 2020-2021 announced early in 2019. As to Florida, I really like the team but I think once Seattle is a NHL city Florida will become more of a focus and may relocate.

 

[DougieMellon]

I fully expect expansion to Seattle for 2020-2021 announced early in 2019. As to Florida, I really like the team but I think once Seattle is a NHL city Florida will become more of a focus and may relocate.

Stay near your computer on December 7th or 8th (if the BOG deosn't pull something sooner).

 

[Mightygoose]

Is December 7 and 8 the confirmed date for the Winter BoG meetings?

They're usually both mid week. December 8 is a Saturday this year.

I'm sure it won't be off by much. Saying that I do have some unused vacation time so could be a good place to use up a day.

 

[gstommylee]

I fully expect expansion to Seattle for 2020-2021 announced early in 2019. As to Florida, I really like the team but I think once Seattle is a NHL city Florida will become more of a focus and may relocate.

The NHL team announcement is coming in December not 2019.

 

[BattleBorn]

I'm curious as to why everyone is expecting a vote/announcement in December. I know gstommylee's stance, but why is everyone else expecting it so soon?

Is the city council still requiring some official announcement prior to giving the final-final-final approval, or are the assurances that a team is coming still okay for them?

 

[gstommylee]

I'm curious as to why everyone is expecting a vote/announcement in December. I know gstommylee's stance, but why is everyone else expecting it so soon?

Is the city council still requiring some official announcement prior to giving the final-final-final approval, or are the assurances that a team is coming still okay for them?

There's a waiver in it. A positive exec comittee by the NHL would be enough.

 

[snovalleyhockeyfan]

I'm curious as to why everyone is expecting a vote/announcement in December. I know gstommylee's stance, but why is everyone else expecting it so soon?

Is the city council still requiring some official announcement prior to giving the final-final-final approval, or are the assurances that a team is coming still okay for them?

There's a waiver in it. A positive exec comittee by the NHL would be enough.

Tommy is correct, BB. I refer you back to post #546 in this thread on page 22 which I posted here when those clauses got revealed during the committee meeting, you'll see what the deal is, and yes, I suspect that if there's a recommendation from the executive committee for full approval, that will be enough to waive on the idea that if you can show the full BoG that yes, dirt's moving down there, it'll make them more comfortable in voting yes to approve the franchise.

 

[snovalleyhockeyfan]

And while we're on the subject....



The meeting happens in about 60 minutes or so and there should be a live webstream here:

Watch Live | seattlechannel.org

 

[KevFu]

I'm curious as to why everyone is expecting a vote/announcement in December. I know gstommylee's stance, but why is everyone else expecting it so soon?

Is the city council still requiring some official announcement prior to giving the final-final-final approval, or are the assurances that a team is coming still okay for them?

Because there were "earliest the NHL could vote on Seattle would be Dec." stories.

I vaguely remember the same thing about Vegas in 2015... Vote could come at the next BOG meeting in December!. Then they announced they would discuss it, but not vote on it in Dec. And the vote was at the June BOG meeting.

 

[BattleBorn]

Tommy is correct, BB. I refer you back to post #546 in this thread on page 22 which I posted here when those clauses got revealed during the committee meeting, you'll see what the deal is, and yes, I suspect that if there's a recommendation from the executive committee for full approval, that will be enough to waive on the idea that if you can show the full BoG that yes, dirt's moving down there, it'll make them more comfortable in voting yes to approve the franchise.

So they can waive that condition to allow for demo/construction to start.

Are they currently waiting for the December meeting to occur without a vote prior to considering the waiver, or is the waiver coming up today if it requires council approval? In other words, will a waiver require council approval, or can the mayor/city manager/whoever, provide the waiver without the granting of the franchise?

Ignoring the fact that I saw this whole thing go down in Vegas and the timeline there, it seems like they're really putting a lot of unnecessary hurdles in front of the approval of moving dirt at KeyArena. That's not even considering the potential that the league might not want to publicly concede that Seattle is a thing that's happening and creating 23 more spots for the NHLPA while they're staring in the face of a potential lockout.

 

[gstommylee]

Because there were "earliest the NHL could vote on Seattle would be Dec." stories.

I vaguely remember the same thing about Vegas in 2015... Vote could come at the next BOG meeting in December!. Then they announced they would discuss it, but not vote on it in Dec. And the vote was at the June BOG meeting.

Seattle is on a MUCH different timeline than Vegas. We are 6 months ahead of vegas.