League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - COVID Season Edition - Vol. 2

[amjay13]

Although Hall might not be a rental, either.

Carter was a great pickup for the Pens, though. Given them a lot more depth and versatility – if/when Malkin's back, Carter will be their best 3C since Bonino, and we all remember how important he was to the Pens in their two cup runs. And even without Malkin it gives the Pens two top-6 centers.

I am disappointed that Mantha hasn't found an extra gear so far in the playoffs, in the way someone like Ovi does, or Raffl has. He seems like a confident player, which is an upgrade on Vrana, but we need some fire lit under his skates.

You miss game 2? He had 7 shots and a bunch of hits. He is going to score very soon and there could be a couple more right after that. Vrana not only went pointless the past two playoffs, he was invisible. Very few shots and obviously no physical play.

 

[Hivemind]

That completely conflicts with a GM's normal desire to move near dead assets for something of value in the future which is a critical part to rebuilding - stockpiling draft picks and prospects. In that model, the primary tool for rebuilding is conflicting with a scheme to set draft position.

Other leagues simply reward the worst team with the top overall pick, and have rules in place for teams that blatantly try to lose to gain draft position, why can't the NHL?

A) No it doesn’t. It just shifts WHEN you trade those assets from the last-possible second (trade deadline) to earlier in the year. Acquiring additional assets will always be valued.

B) So what? Is teams tanking for draft picks and stockpiling assets a good thing that helps your fandom of a team and the quality of play around the league in general? Having fans root for their team to lose is a perverse incentive that hurts the quality on the ice. Teams should not be rewarded for playing Matthew Yeats.

 

[kicksavedave]

A) No it doesn’t. It just shifts WHEN you trade those assets from the last-possible second (trade deadline) to earlier in the year. Acquiring additional assets will always be valued.

B) So what? Is teams tanking for draft picks and stockpiling assets a good thing that helps your fandom of a team and the quality of play around the league in general? Having fans root for their team to lose is a perverse incentive that hurts the quality on the ice. Teams should not be rewarded for playing Matthew Yeats.

A) Yes it clearly does. If you are rewarded for winning games after the TDL, then you are clearly incented to keep your veterans and not play your prospects. It doesn't matter when the TDL is, if the scheme is "wins after the TDL" then trading veterans for picks or prospects hurts your chances of winning after the TDL. This isn't debatable.

B) Fans root for hope and wins. When a team is struggling, die hard fans will turn out anyway, but the larger fair weather fans will turn out to watch top prospects (Rookie Ovi) or winning teams. They won't turn out to watch aging veterans mail it in on their last few games of a contract, so holding onto those players decreases hope and doesn't lead to fan engagement. If a team is out of it at the TDL, there are no moves other than trading for young players who are in the NHL now(Vrana?), that will change fan turnout. But if you can land a generational prospect in the draft, the fans will show up just to watch him play - they won't show up to watch the 6th overall pick who only makes the NHL when he's 20.

Might as well peel the bandaid off quickly and commit to rebuild properly, vs hang on to crap way too long and become perennial "also rans".

 

[usiel]

It's always been odd to me that Stevie Y and the Wings are going through the most obvious and blatant tanking possible (starting last season), but they get a total pass on it. Other clubs get roasted. The Stevie Y effect, obviously, but the double-standard strikes me funny.

Kinda not surprised they are taking more years to tank they've gotten zero lottery luck the previous two or three drafts.

 

[Hivemind]

A) Yes it clearly does. If you are rewarded for winning games after the TDL, then you are clearly incented to keep your veterans and not play your prospects. It doesn't matter when the TDL is, if the scheme is "wins after the TDL" then trading veterans for picks or prospects hurts your chances of winning after the TDL. This isn't debatable.

B) Fans root for hope and wins. When a team is struggling, die hard fans will turn out anyway, but the larger fair weather fans will turn out to watch top prospects (Rookie Ovi) or winning teams. They won't turn out to watch aging veterans mail it in on their last few games of a contract, so holding onto those players decreases hope and doesn't lead to fan engagement. If a team is out of it at the TDL, there are no moves other than trading for young players who are in the NHL now(Vrana?), that will change fan turnout. But if you can land a generational prospect in the draft, the fans will show up just to watch him play - they won't show up to watch the 6th overall pick who only makes the NHL when he's 20.

Might as well peel the bandaid off quickly and commit to rebuild properly, vs hang on to crap way too long and become perennial "also rans".

A) Once again, teams are still given a draft advantage by being eliminated earlier in the season. The worst teams are eliminated the earliest, and are thus given more time to accrue wins towards a higher draft pick. I really wish his original presentation was still available to showcase this effectively. Rebuilding teams will still rebuild, but their "sell off" moves will happen either before the season or during its early stages, rather than at the last minute before the trade deadline. Expect more players to be traded in the off-season with 1 year remaining on their deals. Teams will still work to accrue assets, but they'll also work to have a team that actually tries to win games down the stretch rather than icing Matthew Yeats in an effort to get better lottery odds.

Here's a pretty good article with further analysis about the proposal (albeit, with the original proposal link still dead):
Doan’s draft idea is pure Gold

B) If you seriously think that hardcore fans tune out, while fair weather fans tune into a bad team... I'm speechless. Fair weather fans are exactly what their name describes, fans who show up during "fair weather" (when things are going well).

And, once again, the worst teams still end up with the best odds for the #1 picks and the generational talents. The difference is, their fanbases don't have to root for them to actively lose to do so. You don't end up with them throwing games by icing their ECHL goalies. You don't end up with them benching Jalen Hurts in a game with playoff implications. Fans actively get to root for their team to win. Can you imagine the hype of winning a game that secures you the #1 draft pick?

 

[kicksavedave]

A) Once again, teams are still given a draft advantage by being eliminated earlier in the season. The worst teams are eliminated the earliest, and are thus given more time to accrue wins towards a higher draft pick. I really wish his original presentation was still available to showcase this effectively. Rebuilding teams will still rebuild, but their "sell off" moves will happen either before the season or during its early stages, rather than at the last minute before the trade deadline. Expect more players to be traded in the off-season with 1 year remaining on their deals. Teams will still work to accrue assets, but they'll also work to have a team that actually tries to win games down the stretch rather than icing Matthew Yeats in an effort to get better lottery odds.

Here's a pretty good article with further analysis about the proposal (albeit, with the original proposal link still dead):
Doan’s draft idea is pure Gold

B) If you seriously think that hardcore fans tune out, while fair weather fans tune into a bad team... I'm speechless. Fair weather fans are exactly what their name describes, fans who show up during "fair weather" (when things are going well).

And, once again, the worst teams still end up with the best odds for the #1 picks and the generational talents. The difference is, their fanbases don't have to root for them to actively lose to do so. You don't end up with them throwing games by icing their ECHL goalies. You don't end up with them benching Jalen Hurts in a game with playoff implications. Fans actively get to root for their team to win. Can you imagine the hype of winning a game that secures you the #1 draft pick?

Reserving the order

B) I said "Turn out" as in hardcore fans will come to the games no matter what, fair weather fans will only come when they feel hopeful or when they are winning. Turn out means show up, you maybe read it as tune out, but thats not what I said. Exact quote: "die hard fans will turn out anyway, but the larger fair weather fans will turn out to watch top prospects (Rookie Ovi) or winning teams."

A) I'm unclear how "wins after the TDL" being the factor will incent teams to make the selloff earlier, if the wins only help them after the TDL. If the criteria is "wins after being eliminated" it still disincentives teams from selling off at all. Any scheme where more wins gets you a lower pick will discourage selloffs at all, because many trades are for draft picks which don't help at all right now.

I get it, its a scheme to make teams that suck try harder to win and reward them for winning. I agree this Gold Draft plan would do that, but it would do that at a cost. Rewarding teams for winning means a dis-incentive to sell off anything at all, which inhibits the rebuild. How you can debate that side effect of the plan is head scratching.

Its just a silly way to try to motivate teams, but I think hockey players and coaches are already motivated enough... The idea that players or coaches actually tank is a falsehood. Look at Buffalo, they were a lock for the worst OA record, but they replaced the coach, sold some assets, and won many more games down the stretch than they did before the TDL and before the sell off. They did so at the expense of their draft position, not because of some scheme that made them try harder. Players will not try to win games, or lose games, to alter their draft position.

The only real issue that needs addressing is the random stupidness of the lottery at all. Randomly rewarding the 9th worst team with the top pick is utterly stupid. Repeatedly knocking the worst OA team down to 4th pick is also stupid. The NHL tinkers with the odds and the scheme, but they should just eliminate it, or overhaul it entirely, by making it only the bottom 3 teams and only allowing someone to win it once every five years if they aren't the worst OA. I'll write my own gold plan and it will be better than that ridiculous one in the link.

 

[Hivemind]

@kicksavedave read the posts again.
It’s NOT wins after the TDL. It’s wins after being eliminated from playoff contention

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

How do you think the Flames and Nucks feel about still havin to play these regualr season games LOL. No tanking for you!

 

[kicksavedave]

@kicksavedave read the posts again.
It’s NOT wins after the TDL. It’s wins after being eliminated from playoff contention

I see that but it doesn't change the fact that more wins being a criteria to lower the pick, discourages teams from selling off assets at all, no matter when. Its a side effect of trying to stop tanking, which was never really a major thing.

 

[Hivemind]

I see that but it doesn't change the fact that more wins being a criteria to lower the pick, discourages teams from selling off assets at all, no matter when. Its a side effect of trying to stop tanking, which was never really a major thing.

Tanking is most certainly a thing at the management level, and sometimes the coaching level. The very thing you’re arguing to keep (fire sales of talent) is a symptom of tanking. There are very prominent examples from Washington sports history of intentional tanking. Very recently, the Philadelphia Eagles in week 17 against WFT this year, benching their starting QB when they were at risk of winning the game. The Washington Capitals in the pre-lockout year starting ECHL goaltenders and other non-legitimate prospects in an effort to increase their lottery odds (which worked and got them Ovie).

The original proposal by Adam Gold showed in pretty clear numbers that teams start winning even less after they’ve been eliminated. The incentive for them to win is removed, and the incentive for them to lose is increased. There’s a clear non-linearity in the aggregate win rates of teams before and after being eliminated from playoff contention. His proposal is designed to eliminate that. To make every game count. To give fans of struggling teams a reason to cheer for wins.
The absolute worst teams still get the top 2 or 3 picks. The biggest shakeups happen in picks 5-10, where mediocre teams who absolutely mail it in down the stretch no longer get the best of these secondary picks.

 

[IafrateOvie34]

Yay for the Jets. I like both teams so don't give a damn who wins, but everyone had Winnipeg written off.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

Yay for the Jets. I like both teams so don't give a damn who wins, but everyone had Winnipeg written off.

Oilers owned them in the reg season but by all accounts the Jets came out hitting hard and that really caused problems for the Oilers. Will be interesting to see what changes in game 2.

 

[AussieCapsFan]

Canes / Bolts look really good.
Avs look amazing.
Vegas / Minny also both look decent

Haven't seen enough of the Canadians yet, but East looks like the old, slow division that is underperforming horribly. Whoever emerges from the East is going to be destroyed.

 

[John Price]

That didn't take long

 

[Devil Dancer]

What does Jarmo have to do to get fired?

 

[John Price]

Just finished watching DVR of Canes Preds I like that rookie from Carolina he shut the preds out

League is moving towards a younger generation of netminders and I like that

 

[Hivemind]

Not sure Jarmo deserves to be fired, particularly given that Torts was pretty much tanking this year, but giving him a new extension also seems weird.

 

[BiPolar Caps]

Still early but at this point I think this may be the year of the Hurricanes. They have the coaching, the defense/goalie and they have some talented forwards. They've been a thorn in the side of the Caps the past few seasons when Justin Williams returned there and had been playing for them.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

He gone for a while. There was a thread on the mains talking about a Kuznetsov/Kadri+ swap... this should be the end of those discussions. Aside from the fact that he's completely unreliable, every single game we'd be under a microscope with Wilson and Kadri on the same team.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Not sure Jarmo deserves to be fired, particularly given that Torts was pretty much tanking this year, but giving him a new extension also seems weird.

I like Jarmo. He had the stones to go all in a few years ago and I thought his moves this year set them up well to rebuild -- they have three first round picks this year. I don't know enough about his draft history to know if he's earned the right to make those picks but I do think that the league would be more interesting if there were more GMs like him willing to push their chips into the center of the table.

 

[John Price]

He gone for a while. There was a thread on the mains talking about a Kuznetsov/Kadri+ swap... this should be the end of those discussions. Aside from the fact that he's completely unreliable, every single game we'd be under a microscope with Wilson and Kadri on the same team.

it's not wilson so the DOPS will be light

But if Wilson does that suspend him for the whole season! Suspend him forever!

 

[Melkor]

Canes will put up a good fight against Tampa and fall like everybody else. Boring. Nobody beats Tampa this year. Neither Colorado nor the Canes.

 

[Roric]

Hoping for the best with tavares but my god are leaf fans so childish and petty

 

[max21]

Carter has been a sniper for the Pens, you watching Mantha? Lol

 

[Marshall]

I can't give Perry the benefit of the doubt - I think he could have avoided that hit, or at least lessened it. I don't think he meant to hit Tavares that hard, and I don't think intent can be proven in this case, so I don't think it's suspend-able, but Perry's earned no leeway from me.

Hope Tavares is okay, that looked bad.