League News: NHL Talk - (News n' Scores n' Stuff) - 2022-23 season, Vol. 4, Off-season Edition

[Hivemind]

Probably don't need a long term solution when you have Alexeyev, Johansen, Iorio, and Chesley. Then include Fever and Sadin.

Management is blocking kids....why didn't we sign a piece that could be a long term solution....which is it?

If the piece they're blocking the kids with could end up being a long term fit, then it's fine.
If the piece they're blocking the kids with is a stopgap that's not going to contribute in the post-Ovechkin era, then it's not helping with the "soft landing"

Simple enough.

 

[Cappy76]

If the piece they're blocking the kids with could end up being a long term fit, then it's fine.
If the piece they're blocking the kids with is a stopgap that's not going to contribute in the post-Ovechkin era, then it's not helping with the "soft landing"

Simple enough.

But Caleb Jones is 26 and isn't going to get better.

In all seriousness though no chance in hell I'd want them to sign Caleb Jones to a long term contract and potentially push out one of those 4 that could be easily the same player that Jones is now. If you want to bring in a top 6 guy at the expense of a F prospect or top pairing guy that pushes one of them down fine but to sign Caleb Jones to a contract would be the equivalent of signing Hagelin IMO.

 

[Hivemind]

But Caleb Jones is 26 and isn't going to get better.

In all seriousness though no chance in hell I'd want them to sign Caleb Jones to a long term contract and potentially push out one of those 4 that could be easily the same player that Jones is now. If you want to bring in a top 6 guy at the expense of a F prospect or top pairing guy that pushes one of them down fine but to sign Caleb Jones to a contract would be the equivalent of signing Hagelin IMO.

Hagelin was 31 when his contract began. Jones, as you pointed out, is 26.

Hagelin signed a 4 year, $2.75M deal. Jones signed a 1 year, $775Kdeal.

Jones' salary is easy enough to justify a healthy scratch. He wouldn't really be blocking anyone, and if he's not a long term fit, a team can move on from a one year deal easy enough.
Hagelin was treated with kid's gloves by coaches, and continued to play in situations where any other player would have been healthy scratched.

Jones wouldn't even be close to a Carl Hagelin equivalent.

 

[twabby]

Probably don't need a long term solution when you have Alexeyev, Johansen, Iorio, and Chesley. Then include Fever and Sadin.

Management is blocking kids....why didn't we sign a piece that could be a long term solution....which is it?

Alexeyev and Johansen aren’t currently on track to be regular NHLers. And if they do become NHLers their ceilings are probably Caleb Jones.

I’ve never been aboard the “get younger” train of thought. I’ve always been aboard the “get better” train. It’s a more comfortable train and has a better dining car. Nick Jensen was older than Caleb Jones when they traded for him and he’s likely going to have been a quality long-term solution for the Capitals, for instance. And they gave up young Madison Bowey for Jensen, a move I don’t think anyone disagrees with.

The reason I and others have complained about some youngsters being blocked is that they were being blocked by low quality and expensive veterans. There’s a very strong case to be made that Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas would have provided more impact than every center on the roster last year except Dylan Strome and Nic Dowd. I don’t think this same logic would apply to an $800k Caleb Jones who has already proven much more than the young Caps D you mentioned.

 

[Cappy76]

Hagelin was 31 when his contract began. Jones, as you pointed out, is 26.

Hagelin signed a 4 year, $2.75M deal. Jones signed a 1 year, $775Kdeal.

Jones' salary is easy enough to justify a healthy scratch. He wouldn't really be blocking anyone, and if he's not a long term fit, a team can move on from a one year deal easy enough.
Hagelin was treated with kid's gloves by coaches, and continued to play in situations where any other player would have been healthy scratched.

Jones wouldn't even be close to a Carl Hagelin equivalent.

I should have been clearer my Hagelin analogy would be based on Jones being signed to a longish term contract to be part of the post Ovie landscape that you alluded to. If Jones was good why wouldn't Edm who is D starved not resigned him? Why didn't Chicago? Why is it only now he's getting a 1 year sweetheart deal from Carolina who is stock full on their NHL Blueline? Maybe because he's just not that good?

I personally was fine with Hagelin playing over Protas and CMM cause at the end of the game Hagelin was a 4th line PK specialist. Neither of Protas or CMM should have pushed him out of the line up. Apples to Apples I wouldn't want the Caps to sign Jones (who has been let go from multiple teams that were starving for D) to block one of the before mentioned players.

Alexeyev and Johansen aren’t currently on track to be regular NHLers. And if they do become NHLers their ceilings are probably Caleb Jones.

I’ve never been aboard the “get younger” train of thought. I’ve always been aboard the “get better” train. It’s a more comfortable train and has a better dining car. Nick Jensen was older than Caleb Jones when they traded for him and he’s likely going to have been a quality long-term solution for the Capitals, for instance. And they gave up young Madison Bowey for Jensen, a move I don’t think anyone disagrees with.

The reason I and others have complained about some youngsters being blocked is that they were being blocked by low quality and expensive veterans. There’s a very strong case to be made that Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas would have provided more impact than every center on the roster last year except Dylan Strome and Nic Dowd. I don’t think this same logic would apply to an $800k Caleb Jones who has already proven much more than the young Caps D you mentioned.

Alexeyev and Johansen aren't currently on track to be because neither have been given a long look and wouldn't with a Jones signing. I'd argue that Alexeyev and Jones have a very similar 2nd NHL season output.

McMichael and Protas would have provided more impact than Kuznetsov and Backstrom is what you're arguing. At which point what happens to those players? You can't just make them disappear so you're plan would be to dress CMM or Protas and simply scratch 7.8 kuzy for a long stretch? or not see what Backstrom was showing after coming back from injury and getting his legs under him?

My main point is simply why sign a Caleb Jones and block a similar prospect. Jones signs here for the same Alexeyev is waived and it's an asset lost that could potentially give the same thing that Jones would in a 3rd pairing role.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I would have much rather Washington targeted Caleb Jones as a 2LD/3LD and just told him to kill penalties rather than trade for Joel Edmundson who is more expensive, is capped at being a 3LD, and forces Fehervary into the top 4 even if he’s not really suited for the role.

Jones also could have been a long term solution if he fit in, unlike Edmundson who is definitely just a stopgap.

Does Jones “bring the pain” at all? Because I fully believe/embrace that’s why Edmundson is here.

If he does? Then I will retract by thinking here.

But I’d wager he doesn’t? (Since I’m pretty sure you’ve never valued “bring the pain” until Orpik helped win is the Cup! )

 

[twabby]

Does Jones “bring the pain” at all? Because I fully believe/embrace that’s why Edmundson is here.

Edmundson definitely brings the pain. Sciatic pain!

Speaking of Orpik: he’s another example of why I wish I had better knowledge/access to GAR stats back in the day. His GAR graph is quite good:

A bad initial year in DC and a bad 17-18 year (regular season only of course) but other than that GAR really paints a good picture of Orpik’s career that simple on-ice stats don’t capture. I was much harsher on Orpik than I should have been. Did his on-ice value warrant a $5.5M AAV? Maybe not but I think I could have been convinced that the additional elements he brought would make the contract worth it.

Edmundson on the other hand:

Not at all similar to Orpik’s impact, and below replacement level in all but one season which sure looks like a huge outlier to me.

If GMBM was going for Orpik-lite when acquiring Edmundson I think he made a miscalculation. Maybe I end up being wrong on Edmundson like I was about Orpik, but they are very much dissimilar in impact.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Edmundson definitely brings the pain. Sciatic pain!

Speaking of Orpik: he’s another example of why I wish I had better knowledge/access to GAR stats back in the day. His GAR graph is quite good:

View attachment 735239

A bad initial year in DC and a bad 17-18 year (regular season only of course) but other than that GAR really paints a good picture of Orpik’s career that simple on-ice stats don’t capture. I was much harsher on Orpik than I should have been. Did his on-ice value warrant a $5.5M AAV? Maybe not but I think I could have been convinced that the additional elements he brought would make the contract worth it.

Edmundson on the other hand:

View attachment 735243

Not at all similar to Orpik’s impact, and below replacement level in all but one season which sure looks like a huge outlier to me.

If GMBM was going for Orpik-lite when acquiring Edmundson I think he made a miscalculation. Maybe I end up being wrong on Edmundson like I was about Orpik, but they are very much dissimilar in impact.

I think the point is that his back was an issue (Edmundson), and now it’s not.

However, I’m not going to die on this hill. I think he will be a solid 3rd pair and will bring some crease clearing elements that we’ve been missing. But who knows?

Oh, and he’s pretty cheap, yes?

 

[PlushMinus]

okay subject change: for some reason I completely missed the fact that Laviolette is now coach of the Rags. That is - amusing, right? Is he going to make them better? Worse? The same?

How do guys like Lafreniere and Kaako play with him behind the bench? Should be interesting

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

okay subject change: for some reason I completely missed the fact that Laviolette is now coach of the Rags. That is - amusing, right? Is he going to make them better? Worse? The same?

How do guys like Lafreniere and Kaako play with him behind the bench? Should be interesting

I think they will battle the canes for the Metro and make the 2nd round.

 

[twabby]

I think the point is that his back was an issue (Edmundson), and now it’s not.

However, I’m not going to die on this hill. I think he will be a solid 3rd pair and will bring some crease clearing elements that we’ve been missing. But who knows?

Oh, and he’s pretty cheap, yes?

Obviously I don't know the details of his back issue but I'm a bit skeptical that his back issues are just gone for good. Those things tend to linger and are difficult to deal with. TJ Oshie famously mentioned he's going to have weeks where he can't walk without pain due to his ongoing back issues. Either way his numbers over his career suggest that even before his back issues surfaced he's never been above replacement with the exception of one year which sure seems like an outlier. Even if we grant he's a good crease clearer, I think the rest of his game is so poor that it doesn't much matter. He's leaky everywhere else. I think there has to be consideration given to how poor he is elsewhere instead of focusing on one or two things he may be good at.

His AAV isn't horrible ($1.75M) but that's still a million bucks more than Caleb Jones. We know how important a million dollars can be given how tight they are to the cap. They also paid a third round pick (and a seventh) to get him. A third round pick doesn't usually amount to much but it's still a useful piece of ammo that I think they wasted that could have otherwise been used in a better trade. They got Michal Kempny for a third round pick, for instance. The Wild got Marcus Johansson for a third round pick from DC. The Hurricanes got Shayne Gostisbehere for a third. Etc.

 

[Ridley Simon]

I can understand the hand-wringing about the assets lost. I do.

I don’t really buy that a 1.75m crease clearer is a bad spend as compared to an 800k camp invite. Perhaps I will be proven wrong

 

[Chokingdogs]

Watched the other day on prime a docu on Probert. That guy was a mess, was kinda sad, but fascinating at the same time. A good watch for a peek behind closed doors.

Zero chance he would have lasted, as long as he did ( playing career ), if social media was back then like it is today.

Oh, and Tie Domi appears to be on the verge of Muhammad Ali.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Totally missed that “Sucker Punch”Sprong….balding anger! Lol…

Watched the other day on prime a docu on Probert. That guy was a mess, was kinda sad, but fascinating at the same time. A good watch for a peek behind closed doors.

Zero chance he would have lasted, as long as he did ( playing career ), if social media was back then like it is today.

Oh, and Tie Domi appears to be on the verge of Muhammad Ali.

That Probert documentary was great.

 

[AlexBrovechkin8]

Edmundson definitely brings the pain. Sciatic pain!

Speaking of Orpik: he’s another example of why I wish I had better knowledge/access to GAR stats back in the day. His GAR graph is quite good:

View attachment 735239

A bad initial year in DC and a bad 17-18 year (regular season only of course) but other than that GAR really paints a good picture of Orpik’s career that simple on-ice stats don’t capture. I was much harsher on Orpik than I should have been. Did his on-ice value warrant a $5.5M AAV? Maybe not but I think I could have been convinced that the additional elements he brought would make the contract worth it.

Edmundson on the other hand. Not at all similar to Orpik’s impact, and below replacement level in all but one season which sure looks like a huge outlier to me.

If GMBM was going for Orpik-lite when acquiring Edmundson I think he made a miscalculation. Maybe I end up being wrong on Edmundson like I was about Orpik, but they are very much dissimilar in impact.

Those top charts can’t be right. I was told Orpik is bad at Corsi and provides negative value and his contact was a boat anchor from the day it was signed.

In seriousness it is refreshing to see someone actually own an opinion that may not have been perfect. “I was wrong,” is a sentence far too few people are willing to speak, unfortunately. A tip of my cap to you, sir. And I personally think you’re right a lot more often than you’re wrong but I’m hoping you’re wrong again about Edmundson.

 

[PlushMinus]

I think they will battle the canes for the Metro and make the 2nd round.

Yeah I am interested to see how another Metro team does with Lavi coaching them. Fingers crossed they will be a disaster but i suspect you're more likely to be right and they will at least be top 3 in the division.

 

[HandsomeTom43]

Speaking of Orpik, there’s never been a player whom I’ve changed my opinion about faster than him. I hated him as a Pen, hated his contract the day it was signed, and forever love him for helping deliver a Cup. I’ve never seen anyone even dispute the fact that he helped shift the culture. Many Caps have discussed his impact but I would love to see more anecdotes.

Is there any player like him in the league now that is really reliable ? Stay at home dmen who can hit, block shots, and clear the crease don’t exist. In the past few decades it seems those that players have typically been captains or alternates. Shea Weber comes to mind but he also had a heck of a shot.

I know comparing JE to anyone is unfair. If he can bring half of what Orpik did, even as a mentor, he will be worth his deal and the trade.

 

[itsjustsurvival]

I was definitely wrong about Orpik. They don’t win without him.

 

[Brian23]

okay subject change: for some reason I completely missed the fact that Laviolette is now coach of the Rags. That is - amusing, right? Is he going to make them better? Worse? The same?

How do guys like Lafreniere and Kaako play with him behind the bench? Should be interesting

Just don't see him making that team any better. They'll probably do well simply because of Igor, but I don't think Lavi is going to help fix their issues.

 

[Marshall]

Just don't see him making that team any better. They'll probably do well simply because of Igor, but I don't think Lavi is going to help fix their issues.

Bringing in Lavi to help your #1OA draft pick makes the kind of sense that doesn't. At all.

 

[Misery74]

okay subject change: for some reason I completely missed the fact that Laviolette is now coach of the Rags. That is - amusing, right? Is he going to make them better? Worse? The same?

How do guys like Lafreniere and Kaako play with him behind the bench? Should be interesting

I place the Rangers fourth in the Metro. The Rangers will be worse, because of Laviolette.

Looking forward to watching.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Canes and Devils are probably the class of the division.

Columbus and Flyers are probably the dregs of the division.

Washington, Pittsburgh, both New York teams are in the middle.

That’s my guess.

 

[PlushMinus]

Canes and Devils are probably the class of the division.

Columbus and Flyers are probably the dregs of the division.

Washington, Pittsburgh, both New York teams are in the middle.

That’s my guess.

You would think the Canes will run away with the division title. Half of their offence will be coming from their d-men.

For the Devils I think it will come down to goaltending and defence. I guess Schmid will get the starting role this season? Their defence looks pretty thin to me, unless Hughes and Nemec are the real deal and are NHL ready.

Rags and Pens would be next imo, but all of the Pens star talent is old(er) and injuries could completely derail them. Hopefully Lavi makes the Rags worse - that would be hilarious.

I can't put the Isles up there with them - I just hate their roster. Outside of goaltending they are just a bland, boring, unlikeable team.

As for the Caps, they are a total question mark for me at the moment. New coach, new season, but Kuzy and Mantha are absolute wildcards. I really hope the youngsters get a decent look this season (not sure CMM qualifies as a 'youngster' anymore, but I digress). They don't need to be playing every game but Lavi would have played the same 18 guys for all 82 games if it wasn't for injuries.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Lavi and the Rags gonna be like the 3/4 seed, and probably trolling us all year long.

 

[Ridley Simon]

Lavi and the Rags gonna be like the 3/4 seed, and probably trolling us all year long.

Quite possible. Unless Shesterskin regresses (as many a G is wont to do)