Prospect Info: NHL Pipeline Rankings (Pronman)

[WF19]

I think we gotta have the best d prospects in the league at least

 

[Revenge of Gru]

I'm surprised we're in the top 10. A prospect pool with no star quality talent isn't very good. If everyone in our prospect pool pans out to expectations then we're a 10-15th best team.

 

[r0bert8841]

Man this really struck a cord. I think we all just need to reassess how we look at this list. These lists are heavily weighted towards the top talent drafted 4-5 years ago. Aka the Zadina and Rasmussen drafts. I think when a team is at the top of this list, they should have top young talent in the NHL and should start competing. If teams are at the top of this list and they haven't started turning a corner, they are wasting prime RFA years may just need to start their rebuild all over.

Buffalo is number 1, but they are nowhere close to competing and are just wasting their talent. They are looking like they may need to start their whole rebuild over. And if NYR/NJD don't turn a corner soon then they will probably be in a similar position.

The list is also heavily weighted towards lottery picks. The Wings, Avs, and Nucks are the only teams in the top 10 that didn't have one. In fact the Ducks, Stars, Hawks and Habs all had lottery picks but are still lower than us. In reality, Pronman should extend the age to 24 so that non-lottery picks have enough time to develop and show what they got. The current age of 22, very few non-lottery players really have had a chance to excel at the NHL level. The last two seasons, only half of the top 5 calder finalist are even eligible for this list which is pretty pointless.

So give it time, but when the Zadina and Rasumussen draft classes have graduated the Wings will easily be near the top of this list. Hopefully we will be turning a corner around then.

 

[Shaman464]

Buffalo comes in at #1.

Ottawa at #2 and Carolina #3.

Honestly, looking at Carolina.. ehh. Pronman ranks Dominik Bokk as their 4th best U23 player, he had 3 Points in 20 SHL games.. compared to Berggren who he had 9th in our pipeline. Sure we don't have a Svechnikov, but depth has to count for something.

Bokk also had 18 points in 29 AHL games, which is more impressive than playing in the SHL.

 

[MBH]

Pronman likes waterbugs to a fault.
He's never going to be as high on Edvinsson/Seider as a lot of NHL execs.

The interesting thing to me is ranking Rasmussen over Zadina. That's not a Pronman-esque take.
Even still, who cares? It's one dude's list.

Also weird that Wallinder doesn't even warrant a mention.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Bokk also had 18 points in 29 AHL games, which is more impressive than playing in the SHL.

AHL last year was nowhere near SHL quality. Even in normal seasons AHL/SHL are pretty level playing field, last year AHL was closer to Allsvenskan.

 

[MBH]

Those player grades are really inconsistent and don't really offer much info at all, I liked his earlier rating style more. The ranking itself is debatable but I do prefer this way of including all players from the past 5 drafts. After all people are interested in what an organization's future is looking like with its current group of young players, and it would be stupid not to include the best of that group just because they're too good. Lets say theoretically Seider, Raymond, Berggren and Veleno all make the team full-time, that would be a pretty big hit on our "pipeline" but it's mostly just a very positive thing for the Wings' future.

So many people say Söderblom's skating is poor/horrible but IMO it's not that bad especially for a guy his size at 20.

Soderblom's ranking is the one redeeming quality of his list.
Soderblom skates very, very well for a 6'8 guy.
If he can solidify without losing agility, he's going to be hard to handle.

 

[Shaman464]

AHL last year was nowhere near SHL quality. Even in normal seasons AHL/SHL are pretty level playing field, last year AHL was closer to Allsvenskan.

That's a cool opinion, wrong, but cool. I know you like the fact your favorite prospect did well in the SHL, but even in a down year, the AHL is a cut above the SHL. The SHL is a third tier league behind the NHL (tier 1), and the AHL and KHL (tier 2). If the SHL was level or better you'd see that as a major landing spot for prospects coming from junior and collegiate leagues, not just the AHL.

 

[MBH]

I want to see what he looks like in a full AHL season (health permitting) before I write him off or make any guesses on how he will look there.

He does certainly have some positive traits, it's not all bad.

McIsaac might still be our best defensive prospect outside Edvinsson/Seider.
IQ.
Good skater.
Willingness to play tough.

Just seems like trait three plays into trait 4: Inability to stay healthy.

 

[Pavels Dog]

That's a cool opinion, wrong, but cool. I know you like the fact your favorite prospect did well in the SHL, but even in a down year, the AHL is a cut above the SHL. The SHL is a third tier league behind the NHL (tier 1), the AHL and KHL (tier 2).

Receipts? Your opinion would be the minority here, especially in a year where literally everyone knows the AHL was drained from talent and a lot weaker than normal.

Again, a guy like Bokk is a great example. Barely looked like he could handle professional hockey in SHL. Did great in AHL. And you argue the AHL is stronger? LOL.
Seth Jarvis is another example; scored at a higher rate in AHL than WHL.

 

[MBH]

The problem with Pronman's system isn't that it's inaccurate, it's that it's frequently irrelevant. Because he's decided to restrict his skill categories to just a few, oftentimes they don't describe the player at all. Seider is a good example. He gives Seider average in a couple of categories, but speaks pretty highly of him. The categories don't actually describe why Seider is so highly thought of, which makes them irrelevant and confusing.

Also, using league average as the primary basis of comparison is confusing. While on one hand being an average NHL skater is pretty good, being an average NHL player is not. And, again, because the categories do little to paint the picture of why this guy is so great, you just find out that somebody like Seider is league average in a couple of areas, and that's confusing for such a highly touted guy. It makes him sound, well... average.

Now, why doesn't Pronman use more categories and swap between them depending on how relevant that would be? Not sure. He does it on occasion for shooters, but that's about it. Maybe he thinks the stuff he already mentions is the most important stuff. But I'm sure even he would agree that you can't paint an accurate picture of Seider if you never mention his physical game.

People devise these "systems" to defend their narratives because they don't believe their own narrative. The systems make the narratives even worse.

 

[Shaman464]

Receipts? Your opinion would be the minority here, especially in a year where literally everyone knows the AHL was drained from talent and a lot weaker than normal.

Again, a guy like Bokk is a great example. Barely looked like he could handle professional hockey in SHL. Did great in AHL. And you argue the AHL is stronger? LOL.
Seth Jarvis is another example; scored at a higher rate in AHL than WHL.

In the minority? My opinion is demonstrably true. A player in the SHL, baring them being top 3 over all talent, will almost invariably need to go to the AHL for at least a season before coming to the NHL. If the SHL were the AHL's equal, let alone its better, that wouldn't be the case, you'd see SHL prospects coming over from the SHL without an AHL transition. The SHL is a good league, but its still overall has a lesser talent pool compared to the AHL and KHL, and a game that is least like the NHL of the three.

And how do we know this is true? If a random 23 year year old from the SHL, FEL, KHL or AHL were to emerge tomorrow as the next big thing, only the player from the AHL or KHL would go from that league straight the NHL. The SHL and other top European leagues would almost certainly require that player to play at least some games in the AHL before making the jump.

 

[Pavels Dog]

In the minority? My opinion is demonstrably true. A player in the SHL, baring them being top 3 over all talent, will almost invariably need to go to the AHL for at least a season before coming to the NHL. If the SHL were the AHL's equal, let alone its better, that wouldn't be the case, you'd see SHL prospects coming over from the SHL without an AHL transition. The SHL is a good league, but its still overall has a lesser talent pool compared to the AHL and KHL, and a game that is least like the NHL of the three.

And how do we know this is true? If a random 23 year year old from the SHL, FEL, KHL or AHL were to emerge tomorrow as the next big thing, only the player from the AHL or KHL would go from that league straight the NHL. The SHL and other top European leagues would almost certainly require that player to play at least some games in the AHL before making the jump.

"demonstrably true" is used very loosely by you.
None of what you say really says much about league quality.

The "AHL adjustment year" is because NHL teams pull their prospects away from europe (specifically SHL) too early.

If NHL teams left their prospects for 1-2 years longer in SHL they wouldn't need that AHL season. How do we know this is true? Because ~10-20 years ago they weren't brought into AHL as much.

From 2010-2021 there was an average of about 50 swedish players in AHL per season.
From 2000-2010, there was an average of about 20 swedish players in AHL per season.

Is Sweden producing over twice as many good hockey players? Are we more than twice as successful on the international stage?
Are we winning over twice as many individual awards? Scoring titles? Calder trophies?

AHL is severely lacking in any talent over the age of ~25. No one who has lost their chance at NHL stays in AHL - they go to better leagues like KHL and SHL. AHL has a decent amount of talent between ages 20-24, guys that are taking that last development step towards NHL. And the grind of the league (many games, low skill, physical) is good for adjusting to NHL games.

 

[Shaman464]

"demonstrably true" is used very loosely by you.
None of what you say really says much about league quality.

The "AHL adjustment year" is because NHL teams pull their prospects away from europe (specifically SHL) too early.

If NHL teams left their prospects for 1-2 years longer in SHL they wouldn't need that AHL season. How do we know this is true? Because ~10-20 years ago they weren't brought into AHL as much.

From 2010-2021 there was an average of about 50 swedish players in AHL per season.
From 2000-2010, there was an average of about 20 swedish players in AHL per season.

Is Sweden producing over twice as many good hockey players? Are we more than twice as successful on the international stage?
Are we winning over twice as many individual awards? Scoring titles? Calder trophies?

AHL is severely lacking in any talent over the age of ~25. No one who has lost their chance at NHL stays in AHL - they go to better leagues like KHL and SHL. AHL has a decent amount of talent between ages 20-24, guys that are taking that last development step towards NHL. And the grind of the league (many games, low skill, physical) is good for adjusting to NHL games.

You raise a false dichotomy. The real answer is teams now aggressive scout Sweden more since the mid 00s, partially because of the Wings and a few other teams' success in finding good quality NHL players there and being able to draft them in later rounds. As for "if they left players in the SHL longer" that's bunk. If people actually paid to know how to develop hockey players thought that was true they'd be doing it. Instead its just your opinion with no facts to back it up.

As for the "severely lacking players over 25", that's like saying the CHL is severely lacking talent over 22. Its because these leagues are built to get players to the NHL, not to be leagues independent of the NHL system. Which is why the AHL is a better league, because its built to be the next best league for potential NHL players to go to. Not a league for people not good enough to make it to the NHL, or not yet ready to play in North America.

 

[Pavels Dog]

You raise a false dichotomy. The real answer is teams now aggressive scout Sweden more since the mid 00s, partially because of the Wings and a few other teams' success in finding good quality NHL players there and being able to draft them in later rounds. As for "if they left players in the SHL longer" that's bunk. If people actually paid to know how to develop hockey players thought that was true they'd be doing it. Instead its just your opinion with no facts to back it up.

Yes because NHL GMs never make any mistakes, especially not in player development.

If you think Fabian Lysell needs to go to AHL to continue his development you simply don't understand hockey.

GMs bring prospects over because they want them close. Easier to scout, easier to call-up. Most teams also probably don't have guys like Andersson, Kronwall etc. in europe/sweden keeping a keen eye on their prospects so it's easier for them to pool their resources around their AHL team. That, again, says nothing about league quality. Teams aren't bringing prospects over because SHL isn't good enough or because young players have mastered that league.

At best, AHL/SHL quality is interchangeable. Most knowledgeable hockey people rank them close, and frequently with SHL ahead. I believe even Yzerman called it the 3rd best league in the world (now is the time where you say GMs know nothing about developing players or league quality).

 

[Shaman464]

Yes because NHL GMs never make any mistakes, especially not in player development.

If you think Fabian Lysell needs to go to AHL to continue his development you simply don't understand hockey.

GMs bring prospects over because they want them close. Easier to scout, easier to call-up. Most teams also probably don't have guys like Andersson, Kronwall etc. in europe/sweden keeping a keen eye on their prospects so it's easier for them to pool their resources around their AHL team. That, again, says nothing about league quality. Teams aren't bringing prospects over because SHL isn't good enough or because young players have mastered that league.

At best, AHL/SHL quality is interchangeable. Most knowledgeable hockey people rank them close, and frequently with SHL ahead. I believe even Yzerman called it the 3rd best league in the world (now is the time where you say GMs know nothing about developing players or league quality).

So, which is it? GMs know nothing? or they know enough to back you up? You can't have it both ways. Looking at the stats at Hockey-graphs the DEL is equal to the SHL and both are behind the KHL and AHL in which leagues are the strongest outside the NHL. Beyond that, NHL staff and trainers are also part of the AHL system. Coaches, trainers, scouts/development staff for NHL teams get their starts there way more often than in the SHL. This increases quality of competition and play compared to the SHL, and makes the games more analogous to the NHL style. The biggest hits to the AHL is that top talent in the AHL gets called up to the NHL more readily than any other league, and the CHL transfer agreement which pushes it down from being ahead of the KHL

But, this is all besides the points you failed to address. We get it, you're Swedish, you are a homer for your league, but the evidence all points to the AHL being the better league, especially for predicting NHL success.

 

[Hatter of the Beach]

I'm surprised we're in the top 10. A prospect pool with no star quality talent isn't very good. If everyone in our prospect pool pans out to expectations then we're a 10-15th best team.

Seider is widely regarded as one of, if not THE Best, defensive prospects in the world.

 

[Pavels Dog]

So, which is it? GMs know nothing? or they know enough to back you up? You can't have it both ways. Looking at the stats at Hockey-graphs the DEL is equal to the SHL and both are behind the KHL and AHL in which leagues are the strongest outside the NHL. Beyond that, NHL staff and trainers are also part of the AHL system. Coaches, trainers, scouts/development staff for NHL teams get their starts there way more often than in the SHL. This increases quality of competition and play compared to the SHL, and makes the games more analogous to the NHL style. The biggest hits to the AHL is that top talent in the AHL gets called up to the NHL more readily than any other league, and the CHL transfer agreement which pushes it down from being ahead of the KHL

But, this is all besides the points you failed to address. We get it, you're Swedish, you are a homer for your league, but the evidence all points to the AHL being the better league, especially for predicting NHL success.

GMs are humans. They can be right about quality of leagues, and wrong to pluck middling prospects like Lysell and Lundeström out of SHL just to get them closer geographically. GMs rushing prospects isn't exactly something new, and if you want to talk about biases it's not a controversial idea that there's a NA bias among GMs that can impact everything from drafting to development.

If you are looking at this - it seems to rank SHL above AHL:
Which League is Best?

But I'll be honest; I'm not gonna read through a thesis on the subject lol. The debate is old and the result is always the same, SHL/AHL are close in quality no matter how you look at it, and SHL usually seems to end end up with an edge.

 

[Shaman464]

GMs are humans. They can be right about quality of leagues, and wrong to pluck middling prospects like Lysell and Lundeström out of SHL just to get them closer geographically. GMs rushing prospects isn't exactly something new, and if you want to talk about biases it's not a controversial idea that there's a NA bias among GMs that can impact everything from drafting to development.

If you are looking at this - it seems to rank SHL above AHL:
Which League is Best?

But I'll be honest; I'm not gonna read through a thesis on the subject lol. The debate is old and the result is always the same, SHL/AHL are close in quality no matter how you look at it, and SHL usually seems to end end up with an edge.

The only chart the AHL is lower than the SHL is adjusted ppg, which makes sense because top of the first round Swedes will likely play in the SHL at least a season, whereas the best Canadian and American players will usually go straight from juniors to the NHL. And conversely, there are 0 inbetween players bouncing between the SHL/NHL throughout a season, but there are dozens from the AHL.

 

[Hen Kolland]

So, which is it? GMs know nothing? or they know enough to back you up? You can't have it both ways. Looking at the stats at Hockey-graphs the DEL is equal to the SHL and both are behind the KHL and AHL in which leagues are the strongest outside the NHL. Beyond that, NHL staff and trainers are also part of the AHL system. Coaches, trainers, scouts/development staff for NHL teams get their starts there way more often than in the SHL. This increases quality of competition and play compared to the SHL, and makes the games more analogous to the NHL style. The biggest hits to the AHL is that top talent in the AHL gets called up to the NHL more readily than any other league, and the CHL transfer agreement which pushes it down from being ahead of the KHL

But, this is all besides the points you failed to address. We get it, you're Swedish, you are a homer for your league, but the evidence all points to the AHL being the better league, especially for predicting NHL success.

I mean you can look up the NHL translation factors from over the years and a point scored in the SHL translates to the NHL at a higher rate than the AHL. So by that benchmark, in terms of scoring, a higher statistical output in the SHL is more impressive (or more valuable) than scoring output in the AHL. That isn't to say that the SHL is unquestionably better, but it works against your argument. When you assert that an offensive minded winger is better prepared for NHL success by performing in the AHL than the SHL, you'd think you'd at least review the translation factors to make sure that the only evidence that we really have available to assess this exact thing.

Then bringing this back to the original argument looking at Berggren and Bokk, using whatever information you are using to formulate your opinion, at what point does production in the SHL outweigh lesser production in the AHL? Like even if the AHL is the better league, at a certain point being a decent AHL producer is going to be surpassed by very good SHL production. It's not like simply playing in the AHL is the benchmark for success, but you seem to really think the AHL's shit doesn't stink.

I don't see an argument you could make (and more importantly, support) where 45 in 49 in the SHL is not more impressive than 18 in 29 in the AHL. And I say all of this as someone who has been trying to pump the brakes on Berggren's hype leading into this season.

 

[ChadS]

Soderblom's ranking is the one redeeming quality of his list.
Soderblom skates very, very well for a 6'8 guy.
If he can solidify without losing agility, he's going to be hard to handle.

His edge work is actually pretty amazing for his size. Frölunda is sleeping on him big time of he's mostly played as a 13F/4th liner.

 

[Shaman464]

I mean you can look up the NHL translation factors from over the years and a point scored in the SHL translates to the NHL at a higher rate than the AHL. So by that benchmark, in terms of scoring, a higher statistical output in the SHL is more impressive (or more valuable) than scoring output in the AHL. That isn't to say that the SHL is unquestionably better, but it works against your argument. When you assert that an offensive minded winger is better prepared for NHL success by performing in the AHL than the SHL, you'd think you'd at least review the translation factors to make sure that the only evidence that we really have available to assess this exact thing.

Then bringing this back to the original argument looking at Berggren and Bokk, using whatever information you are using to formulate your opinion, at what point does production in the SHL outweigh lesser production in the AHL? Like even if the AHL is the better league, at a certain point being a decent AHL producer is going to be surpassed by very good SHL production. It's not like simply playing in the AHL is the benchmark for success, but you seem to really think the AHL's shit doesn't stink.

I don't see an argument you could make (and more importantly, support) where 45 in 49 in the SHL is not more impressive than 18 in 29 in the AHL. And I say all of this as someone who has been trying to pump the brakes on Berggren's hype leading into this season.

This issue about scoring translation doesn't hold with any scrutiny though. Why? Because there are now NHL/SHL tweeners. Those players who don't score well in the NHL enough to stay in consistently either go back to the SHL or to the AHL, and if they go to the AHL, then they factor into the AHL's scoring translation. More of the bottom players on NHL teams come out of the AHL so it really biases that stat badly.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I hear you. I haven't done an extensive comparison, but it's clear as day how well Edvinsson skates. That's why I was excited about him at all and why I thought there was no way Columbus would pass on him for the likes of Johnson (who I thought was underrated on our board). Edvinsson barely factored into my discussion this summer, the way I kinda tuned out Zadina previously (although I think this is different).

So it begs the question what the hell he's looking at when it comes to this stuff. If he really is that bad, where skater size can trick him, he's very lucky to have his current gig - that's all I'm saying. I thought that kind of evaluation was reserved for dad's who got wrangled into coaching the tikes.

Were you on the old HFboards in the bad old days? (Early aughts)
Pronman posts on the prospects board and trade proposal boards were thought to be only marginally more tolerable than Eklund rumors.

To be quite honest I have no clue how Pronman got his gig.

 

[SCD]

Were you on the old HFboards in the bad old days? (Early aughts)
Pronman posts on the prospects board and trade proposal boards were thought to be only marginally more tolerable than Eklund rumors.

To be quite honest I have no clue how Pronman got his gig.

Pronman developed a skills rating system other writers lacked. On the surface it gives credence to his opinions and to some, makes him the authority on hockey prospects.

It doesn't take much reading to quickly realize these skill grades are often arbitrary and quite unrealistic for many prospects.

Frankly, when he lists Seider and Edvinsson as "average" skaters, the validity of the whole article becomes questionable.

 

[steafo]

If it makes this board feel better about some of the Wings rankings. He had Trevor Zegras with this:

Pronman review of Zegras

Skating: Below-average
Puck Skills: Average
Hockey Sense: Elite
Compete: Average

The puck skills as average is laughably bad as far as I'm concerned. He should likely be listed as elite because if he excels at anything it is his puck skills and I think they are all world.