Prospect Info: NHL Pipeline Rankings (Pronman)

[simonedvinsson]

Anyone who grew up in youth hockey knows the "pitching hay" skaters that are throwing their arms side to side dramatically so it looks like their hustle is in overdrive. A dad filling in coaching might encourage that kind of showy, inefficient hustle.

It would be pretty disappointing if a professional like Pronman is subject to the same evaluation issues as the average fan. I have a feeling it's not that, but hey.

I think he's saying that there's a difference between moving your legs at x radians per second than moving in some direction at y feet per second, which can make a smaller player look faster than someone a lot bigger going the same speed. In a sense, the smaller player is faster when he's really just keeping up because he has to move his feet a lot quicker to match the gait of the larger player.

In a lot of the games I've watched, Edvinsson displays great break-away speed, flying down the ice at great speed while hardly moving his feet. I'm not a scout by any stretch of the imagination, but his straight-line speed looks well above average to me.

 

[jaster]

Those player grades are really inconsistent and don't really offer much info at all, I liked his earlier rating style more. The ranking itself is debatable but I do prefer this way of including all players from the past 5 drafts. After all people are interested in what an organization's future is looking like with its current group of young players, and it would be stupid not to include the best of that group just because they're too good. Lets say theoretically Seider, Raymond, Berggren and Veleno all make the team full-time, that would be a pretty big hit on our "pipeline" but it's mostly just a very positive thing for the Wings' future.

I agree. A hard age cutoff really does give you more insight into the future of an organization than a cutoff based on a player being too young or not good enough to "make it" yet. Generally, I like the "under-XX age" lists better than common prospect lists when it comes to the actual future of a team. Prospect lists are fun, but less meaningful.

 

[Bench]

I think he's saying that there's a difference between moving your legs at x radians per second than moving in some direction at y feet per second, which can make a smaller player look faster than someone a lot bigger going the same speed. In a sense, the smaller player is faster when he's really just keeping up because he has to move his feet a lot quicker to match the gait of the larger player.

Yes, I understood clearly.

I'm expanding the example to another such instance in youth hockey. Little kids pump their arms dramatically and give the impression they are moving with more effort (but in reality it's wasted effort). The way a shorter NHL player moving their feet more often would give the impression they are also faster (but no, it's just more movement over the same distance).

I'm also saying it's a bit hard to believe a professional evaluator like Pronman, despite the consensus here that he sucks, would not be able to differentiate between the two.

 

[DetroitRed]

I would have Sebrango ahead of Soderblom.

McIsaac I wouldn't put on this list, I think he's an AHL asset but not an NHL prospect - that ship has sailed. He can come up and fill in once in a while, but he won't develop into more.

I guess you could say that Zadina and Rasmussen are still in the trial phase, but at the end of it.

 

[jaster]

I would have Sebrango ahead of Soderblom.

McIsaac I wouldn't put on this list, I think he's an AHL asset but not an NHL prospect - that ship has sailed. He can come up and fill in once in a while, but he won't develop into more.

I guess you could say that Zadina and Rasmussen are still in the trial phase, but at the end of it.

Hot take on McIsaac! You're going to get some pushback on that one haha. But I don't totally disagree, myself. Between his injuries and lost development time, he's more likely than not going to have a much harder time continuing to climb the ladder. Further, I've never been sold on the kid's IQ. Before his last two injury-riddled seasons, I saw him swimming in his own zone way too often. Against kids. And I don't think 35 more games of junior hockey and 10 games in the A over the past 2 years was enough development time to correct that. I'm not writing him off yet, but his NHL prospects are pretty low to me at this point.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Yes, I understood clearly.

I'm expanding the example to another such instance in youth hockey. Little kids pump their arms dramatically and give the impression they are moving with more effort (but in reality it's wasted effort). The way a shorter NHL player moving their feet more often would give the impression they are also faster (but no, it's just more movement over the same distance).

I'm also saying it's a bit hard to believe a professional evaluator like Pronman, despite the consensus here that he sucks, would not be able to differentiate between the two.

I think that Edvinsson could beat most smaller prospects in a straight line race based on the length of his stride. Even this SHL preseason/preseason CHL matchups, there are multiple instances with the puck on his stick where Edvinsson is able to actually pull away from backcheckers, so I don't buy what Pronman is selling there.

I've often been astounded at how confusing his skating takes are on bigger players. There are instances where it honestly reads as if he's saying: from Point A to Point B, the skaters will arrive at the same time, but because Player 1 is 5 inches taller than Player 2, he should be able to cover more ground but doesn't, thus Player 1 is a less impressive skater.

 

[Bench]

I think that Edvinsson could beat most smaller prospects in a straight line race based on the length of his stride. Even this SHL preseason/preseason CHL matchups, there are multiple instances with the puck on his stick where Edvinsson is able to actually pull away from backcheckers, so I don't buy what Pronman is selling there.

I've often been astounded at how confusing his skating takes are on bigger players. There are instances where it honestly reads as if he's saying: from Point A to Point B, the skaters will arrive at the same time, but because Player 1 is 5 inches taller than Player 2, he should be able to cover more ground but doesn't, thus Player 1 is a less impressive skater.

I don't know why he gives them the grades he does, and I'm not exactly a fan, but if he's really evaluating like that, then the dude is basically one of us that fell his way ass backwards into a great gig.

 

[Frk It]

Hot take on McIsaac! You're going to get some pushback on that one haha. But I don't totally disagree, myself. Between his injuries and lost development time, he's more likely than not going to have a much harder time continuing to climb the ladder. Further, I've never been sold on the kid's IQ. Before his last two injury-riddled seasons, I saw him swimming in his own zone way too often. Against kids. And I don't think 35 more games of junior hockey and 10 games in the A over the past 2 years was enough development time to correct that. I'm not writing him off yet, but his NHL prospects are pretty low to me at this point.

I want to see what he looks like in a full AHL season (health permitting) before I write him off or make any guesses on how he will look there.

He does certainly have some positive traits, it's not all bad.

 

[jaster]

I don't know why he gives them the grades he does, and I'm not exactly a fan, but if he's really evaluating like that, then the dude is basically one of us that fell his way ass backwards into a great gig.

I remember Pronman from years and years ago, I think before he even had a real gig, around the time he started becoming relevant here at HF. Wherever it was I first encountered his writing/content/opinions, I remember them being borderline ridiculous. Detached from a real understanding of the game of hockey is what I remember thinking. I'd be pretty surprised if the guy has ever played competitively. He seems like a real good aggregator of information, but I've never trusted him as an evaluator of talent. No real reason to. I don't know him personally, but he kinda comes across as a jock sniffer.

 

[jaster]

I want to see what he looks like in a full AHL season (health permitting) before I write him off or make any guesses on how he will look there.

He does certainly have some positive traits, it's not all bad.

Indeed. I like his physicality. And if his game turns out to be cleaned up in his own end, I'm back on board.

 

[Ricelund]

I remember Pronman from years and years ago, I think before he even had a real gig, around the time he started becoming relevant here at HF. Wherever it was I first encountered his writing/content/opinions, I remember them being borderline ridiculous. Detached from a real understanding of the game of hockey is what I remember thinking. I'd be pretty surprised if the guy has ever played competitively. He seems like a real good aggregator of information, but I've never trusted him as an evaluator of talent. No real reason to. I don't know him personally, but he kinda comes across as a jock sniffer.

Yeah, doing this sort of thing is almost an impossible task for one person, too. He's doing writeups for 15 or so prospects for each of the 32 teams. That's over 500 players. How could someone possibly familiarize themselves with that many players?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Anyone who grew up in youth hockey knows the "pitching hay" skaters that are throwing their arms side to side dramatically so it looks like their hustle is in overdrive. A dad filling in coaching might encourage that kind of showy, inefficient hustle.

It would be pretty disappointing if a professional like Pronman is subject to the same evaluation issues as the average fan. I have a feeling it's not that, but hey.

I have found issues with a lot of his skating rankings over the years. Average on Edvinsson is pretty stupid. You can have questions on certain parts of Edvinsson's game, but that isn't an area that average can be put even on a 6'6" D-man he moves at above average when you consider his size it is elite. There were scouting services that had him ranked as the best skater in the draft period...

 

[Bench]

I have found issues with a lot of his skating rankings over the years. Average on Edvinsson is pretty stupid. You can have questions on certain parts of Edvinsson's game, but that isn't an area that average can be put even on a 6'6" D-man he moves at above average when you consider his size it is elite. There were scouting services that had him ranked as the best skater in the draft period...

I hear you. I haven't done an extensive comparison, but it's clear as day how well Edvinsson skates. That's why I was excited about him at all and why I thought there was no way Columbus would pass on him for the likes of Johnson (who I thought was underrated on our board). Edvinsson barely factored into my discussion this summer, the way I kinda tuned out Zadina previously (although I think this is different).

So it begs the question what the hell he's looking at when it comes to this stuff. If he really is that bad, where skater size can trick him, he's very lucky to have his current gig - that's all I'm saying. I thought that kind of evaluation was reserved for dad's who got wrangled into coaching the tikes.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Yeah, doing this sort of thing is almost an impossible task for one person, too. He's doing writeups for 15 or so prospects for each of the 32 teams. That's over 500 players. How could someone possibly familiarize themselves with that many players?

It is somewhat built up overtime, and he has a gig that pays him to do it. All kind of depends on your memory, but I am lucky enough to know a few pro scouts, you basically just keep feeding information in. So when he watches Frolunda on tape, he is keeping mental tabs on probably 5 or 6 guys maybe slightly more depending on the timing. But the point is you start watching a guy like Edvinsson at 15, you have your local scouts saying pay attention to this guy. So in a lot of ways one of the narrower and ultimately incorrect view points on scouting is that it is a timeline process. While dates certainly matter in there, for a guy like Pronman one of the easier things is he just keeps building his book on each guy. Yes you have 500 total but how many are truly new each season, how many are you unfamiliar with 50 to 100 max while also rotating some out?

I think that is some of the downside in the years of following him though and I like Pronman. But he seems slow to admit fairly big gains made by certain prospects, even when updating his "book", he almost always has a few well I need to wait on this guy after massive breakouts every year. He is all in on ones doing it in certain areas, but even Mo Seider shouldn't be described as an average skater, maybe you thought that at 16,17 and most of 18. However, it certainly needs to be updated. Pronman has also done the opposite of this in terms of not dropping a few of the guys he was higher on and busted (Grigorenko is probably the most notable here) and I think that is somewhat human nature but it bleeds through on his stuff.

I think he puts in the work though, and while we disagree on certain aspects, I appreciate the effort. I think the other thing he has done a lot more of lately, is actually using the pro and amateur scouts he has access to and has networked with to have a little better hockey points, but I get your argument that it isn't something he always excels at. He struggles at times to rate tools, but most of this board disagrees with each other on those...

 

[HoweFan]

He can rank them however he wants. I wouldn’t trade our prospect group for anyone’s. Maybe I’m too loyal.

 

[Tetsuo]

It is somewhat built up overtime, and he has a gig that pays him to do it. All kind of depends on your memory, but I am lucky enough to know a few pro scouts, you basically just keep feeding information in. So when he watches Frolunda on tape, he is keeping mental tabs on probably 5 or 6 guys maybe slightly more depending on the timing. But the point is you start watching a guy like Edvinsson at 15, you have your local scouts saying pay attention to this guy. So in a lot of ways one of the narrower and ultimately incorrect view points on scouting is that it is a timeline process. While dates certainly matter in there, for a guy like Pronman one of the easier things is he just keeps building his book on each guy. Yes you have 500 total but how many are truly new each season, how many are you unfamiliar with 50 to 100 max while also rotating some out?

I think that is some of the downside in the years of following him though and I like Pronman. But he seems slow to admit fairly big gains made by certain prospects, even when updating his "book", he almost always has a few well I need to wait on this guy after massive breakouts every year. He is all in on ones doing it in certain areas, but even Mo Seider shouldn't be described as an average skater, maybe you thought that at 16,17 and most of 18. However, it certainly needs to be updated. Pronman has also done the opposite of this in terms of not dropping a few of the guys he was higher on and busted (Grigorenko is probably the most notable here) and I think that is somewhat human nature but it bleeds through on his stuff.

I think he puts in the work though, and while we disagree on certain aspects, I appreciate the effort. I think the other thing he has done a lot more of lately, is actually using the pro and amateur scouts he has access to and has networked with to have a little better hockey points, but I get your argument that it isn't something he always excels at. He struggles at times to rate tools, but most of this board disagrees with each other on those...

Couldn't agree more with this take. Case in point, Pronman has definitely upped his appraisal for Seider over the years, but I would argue that Seider's score on the three of the four metrics (skating, puck-skills, hockey sense and compete) should be upped by one level, with puck-skills the only category I think there is any debate on. And I don't think I'm going that far out on a limb, Seider's skating is above average for an NHL player of his size, his puck-skills are definitely serviceable for his style of play, he has hockey sense has only improved since draft day, especially in the offensive end of the ice, and his compete level is beyond reproach. It just shows that while he may update his notes, the amount of serious time he spends watching these players is relatively small. His overall ranking of our young guys I think is mostly fine, with Rasmussen perhaps the biggest standout, but what he has to say about each player is... lacking at worst and uninspired at best.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

I hear you. I haven't done an extensive comparison, but it's clear as day how well Edvinsson skates. That's why I was excited about him at all and why I thought there was no way Columbus would pass on him for the likes of Johnson (who I thought was underrated on our board). Edvinsson barely factored into my discussion this summer, the way I kinda tuned out Zadina previously (although I think this is different).

So it begs the question what the hell he's looking at when it comes to this stuff. If he really is that bad, where skater size can trick him, he's very lucky to have his current gig - that's all I'm saying. I thought that kind of evaluation was reserved for dad's who got wrangled into coaching the tikes.

As far as I understand it, it's not that he is tricked by size, it's that he evaluates each talent in a vacuum.

Let's take stick handling instead as an example. The taller you are and the longer the stick you have, the harder it is to be a good stick handler.
So typically we may say that Söderblom is an amazing stick handler, for his size. Whereas if we compare to the entire population of NHL players he is probably only an average stick handler.

So Pronman would probably grade Söderblom as an Average stick handler (I don't have The Athletic anymore so don't know exactly what grades he gave him). However being an average stick handler at 6'7'' is much more impressive than being an average stick handler at 5'11'' and thus Söderblom being an Average stick handler is a positive thing.

The same goes for, for example Edvinsson, whom I believe got the grades "Average" on all talents, it's then easy to think that Pronman thinks Edvinsson is just and Average player. However since he is doing this at 6'6'' the grades should be inflated.

 

[FireBird71]

Just an opinion… like the rest of them…doesn’t make it fact

 

[Unfriendly Ghost]

The problem with Pronman's system isn't that it's inaccurate, it's that it's frequently irrelevant. Because he's decided to restrict his skill categories to just a few, oftentimes they don't describe the player at all. Seider is a good example. He gives Seider average in a couple of categories, but speaks pretty highly of him. The categories don't actually describe why Seider is so highly thought of, which makes them irrelevant and confusing.

Also, using league average as the primary basis of comparison is confusing. While on one hand being an average NHL skater is pretty good, being an average NHL player is not. And, again, because the categories do little to paint the picture of why this guy is so great, you just find out that somebody like Seider is league average in a couple of areas, and that's confusing for such a highly touted guy. It makes him sound, well... average.

Now, why doesn't Pronman use more categories and swap between them depending on how relevant that would be? Not sure. He does it on occasion for shooters, but that's about it. Maybe he thinks the stuff he already mentions is the most important stuff. But I'm sure even he would agree that you can't paint an accurate picture of Seider if you never mention his physical game.

 

[TopShelfWaterBottle]

The whole copy paste aspect of the article gave him a serious L in the win loss category for journalism

 

[Pavels Dog]

Skating: average
Puck skills: below average
Hockey IQ: average

Surely that cannot be Moritz Seider right?

Edit: He has him at 183 pounds, so it's probably not our Seider he watched

The writeup on Seider is one of the more glowing ones Pronman has delivered on him as of yet, but the grades are indeed like taken from some other player.

Hockey sense: average
Compete: Above-average

These two areas are basically what makes Seider into the player he is. Competitive beyond words and smart. I think you can get away with saying he's an average skill, average skating guy if you at least recognize what it is that makes him tick.

 

[lilidk]

We only have 2 players u23 in NHL right now and they don't dominate so what do you expect? Things should be changed next year

 

[Pavels Dog]

Buffalo comes in at #1.

Ottawa at #2 and Carolina #3.

Honestly, looking at Carolina.. ehh. Pronman ranks Dominik Bokk as their 4th best U23 player, he had 3 Points in 20 SHL games.. compared to Berggren who he had 9th in our pipeline. Sure we don't have a Svechnikov, but depth has to count for something.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Buffalo comes in at #1.

Ottawa at #2 and Carolina #3.

Honestly, looking at Carolina.. ehh. Pronman ranks Dominik Bokk as their 4th best U23 player, he had 3 Points in 20 SHL games.. compared to Berggren who he had 9th in our pipeline. Sure we don't have a Svechnikov, but depth has to count for something.

I think it is appropriate to discount depth for frontline NHL talent. Until a kid starts doing it at a high level in the NHL, then there really isn't any realized value to the organization. Seider has been incredible at every stop he's made over the past two years, but truly we don't have any guarantees of what he will be in the NHL. Now his past suggests that he will find a good deal of success, but until he does it regularly, it isn't tangible. I'd imagine with a good, healthy year for our guys, this list looks quite different next year and we could even be flirting with the top of the list league wide.

Seider establishes himself in the NHL, Edvinsson plays well in a first line role for Frolunda year round, Raymond finds his offensive groove in North America, Berggren proves his game translates to North America, Zadina brings back the offense he was drafted for, Cossa dunks on children some more in the Dub, we draft another top 10 guy (maybe even get lucky with the lotto), and so on. It's not out of the realm of possibility that a lot of the maybes start to turn into reality; what I laid out isn't even all that farfetched.

 

[SCD]

Buffalo comes in at #1.

Ottawa at #2 and Carolina #3.

Honestly, looking at Carolina.. ehh. Pronman ranks Dominik Bokk as their 4th best U23 player, he had 3 Points in 20 SHL games.. compared to Berggren who he had 9th in our pipeline. Sure we don't have a Svechnikov, but depth has to count for something.

That may be the only thing Buffalo wins this year......and the Shane Wright sweepstake.