Doctor No
Registered User
Also, for anyone interested in visually comparing schedule strengths, I like the visual presentation here:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/NHL2015.html
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/NHL2015.html
NHL Goaltenders and Strength of Opponents
- Thread starter Doctor No
- Start date
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL games through January 27, 2016:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.09| Scott Darling |+0.14|||+0.23
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.08| Curtis McElhinney |+0.21| Joonas Korpisalo |+0.03|+0.18
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.14| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.01|+0.17
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.03| Reto Berra |+0.13|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.13|||+0.16
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |+0.04| John Gibson |-0.11|||+0.15
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Andrew Hammond |+0.19|||+0.15
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.05| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.09|||+0.15
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.09| Philipp Grubauer |+0.05|||+0.14
ARI| Mike Smith |-0.02| Anders Lindback |-0.10| Louis Domingue |-0.16|+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.17| James Reimer |+0.05|||+0.12
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.11| Kari Lehtonen |+0.01|||+0.12
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.11| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.12
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.04| Darcy Kuemper |+0.07|||+0.12
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.10|||+0.09
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.02| Karri Ramo |+0.07|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Antti Raanta |-0.08|||+0.09
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.00| Eddie Lack |+0.07|||+0.07
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.05| Michal Neuvirth |+0.11|||+0.06
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.03| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.05
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.01|||+0.05
MON| Mike Condon |+0.04| Carey Price |-0.01|||+0.04
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.06| Anders Nilsson |+0.10|||+0.04
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.01| Jimmy Howard |-0.05|||+0.04
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.07| Jaroslav Halak |-0.03|||+0.04
STL| Jake Allen |-0.03| Brian Elliott |-0.04|||+0.01
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10|||+0.01
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.11|||||+0.00
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03|||||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.02|||||+0.00
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.09| Scott Darling |+0.14|||+0.23
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.08| Curtis McElhinney |+0.21| Joonas Korpisalo |+0.03|+0.18
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.14| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.01|+0.17
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.03| Reto Berra |+0.13|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.13|||+0.16
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |+0.04| John Gibson |-0.11|||+0.15
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Andrew Hammond |+0.19|||+0.15
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.05| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.09|||+0.15
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.09| Philipp Grubauer |+0.05|||+0.14
ARI| Mike Smith |-0.02| Anders Lindback |-0.10| Louis Domingue |-0.16|+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.17| James Reimer |+0.05|||+0.12
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.11| Kari Lehtonen |+0.01|||+0.12
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.11| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.12
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.04| Darcy Kuemper |+0.07|||+0.12
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.10|||+0.09
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.02| Karri Ramo |+0.07|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Antti Raanta |-0.08|||+0.09
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.00| Eddie Lack |+0.07|||+0.07
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.05| Michal Neuvirth |+0.11|||+0.06
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.03| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.05
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.01|||+0.05
MON| Mike Condon |+0.04| Carey Price |-0.01|||+0.04
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.06| Anders Nilsson |+0.10|||+0.04
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.01| Jimmy Howard |-0.05|||+0.04
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.07| Jaroslav Halak |-0.03|||+0.04
STL| Jake Allen |-0.03| Brian Elliott |-0.04|||+0.01
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10|||+0.01
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.11|||||+0.00
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03|||||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.02|||||+0.00
Doctor No
Registered User
And the table showing correlations between strength of schedule and traditional goaltending metrics.
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-0.8|2.31|0.915|27.2|1,609
-0.5|2.21|0.922|28.3|20,997
+0.0|2.41|0.918|29.6|38,233
+0.5|2.64|0.914|30.6|18,145
+1.0|3.12|0.893|29.3|1,441
R^2|91%|72%|73%|
The level of parity is still bugging the charts - the data doesn't spread out as much, which hurts the R^2 values.
-0.8|2.31|0.915|27.2|1,609
-0.5|2.21|0.922|28.3|20,997
+0.0|2.41|0.918|29.6|38,233
+0.5|2.64|0.914|30.6|18,145
+1.0|3.12|0.893|29.3|1,441
R^2|91%|72%|73%|
The level of parity is still bugging the charts - the data doesn't spread out as much, which hurts the R^2 values.
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL games through February 6, 2016:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.22|+0.27
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.20| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.02|+0.22
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.01| Al Montoya |+0.21|||+0.22
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.08| Philipp Grubauer |+0.13|||+0.21
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.08| Scott Darling |+0.13|||+0.21
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.12| Jhonas Enroth |+0.04|||+0.15
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.04| Michael Hutchinson |+0.11| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.02|+0.15
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.10| Kari Lehtonen |+0.03|||+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.03|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |-0.01| Anders Lindback |-0.11| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.10
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Eddie Lack |+0.08|||+0.10
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Andrew Hammond |+0.14|||+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.12|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.08|||+0.09
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.07| Jaroslav Halak |+0.02|||+0.09
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |+0.00| John Gibson |-0.08|||+0.08
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.08| Jacob Markstrom |+0.01|||+0.07
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.02|||+0.06
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.02| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.06
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.04| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.10|||+0.05
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.01| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04|||+0.05
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.05| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.04
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.05|||+0.04
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.01| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.03
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.12| Linus Ullmark |+0.09|||+0.03
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Brian Elliott |-0.02|||+0.02
MON| Mike Condon |+0.00| Carey Price |-0.02|||+0.02
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.04| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.04|||+0.01
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.00| Jimmy Howard |+0.00|||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.02|||||+0.00
Colorado jumps to the top of this dubious list.
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.22|+0.27
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.20| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.02|+0.22
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.01| Al Montoya |+0.21|||+0.22
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.08| Philipp Grubauer |+0.13|||+0.21
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.08| Scott Darling |+0.13|||+0.21
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.12| Jhonas Enroth |+0.04|||+0.15
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.04| Michael Hutchinson |+0.11| Connor Hellebuyck |-0.02|+0.15
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.10| Kari Lehtonen |+0.03|||+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.03|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |-0.01| Anders Lindback |-0.11| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.10
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Eddie Lack |+0.08|||+0.10
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Andrew Hammond |+0.14|||+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.12|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.08|||+0.09
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.07| Jaroslav Halak |+0.02|||+0.09
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |+0.00| John Gibson |-0.08|||+0.08
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.08| Jacob Markstrom |+0.01|||+0.07
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.02|||+0.06
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.02| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.06
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.04| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.10|||+0.05
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |-0.01| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04|||+0.05
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.05| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.04
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.05|||+0.04
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.01| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.03
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.12| Linus Ullmark |+0.09|||+0.03
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Brian Elliott |-0.02|||+0.02
MON| Mike Condon |+0.00| Carey Price |-0.02|||+0.02
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.04| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.04|||+0.01
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.00| Jimmy Howard |+0.00|||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |-0.02|||||+0.00
Colorado jumps to the top of this dubious list.
Doctor No
Registered User
Correlation values are inching up. Since the league is so bunched together, I'll just show all increments here (these are for bands of +/-0.2 around each midpoint, which is why some values at the top repeat).
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-0.8|2.27|0.915|26.8|3,298
-0.7|2.15|0.922|27.6|4,999
-0.6|2.23|0.921|28.4|12,974
-0.5|2.30|0.918|28.2|20,879
-0.4|2.28|0.919|28.3|24,897
-0.3|2.32|0.919|28.5|37,395
-0.2|2.35|0.918|28.8|35,716
-0.1|2.37|0.918|28.9|38,760
+0.0|2.44|0.918|29.7|42,560
+0.1|2.50|0.917|30.2|31,420
+0.2|2.54|0.917|30.5|31,382
+0.3|2.59|0.917|31.1|23,743
+0.4|2.65|0.913|30.4|17,319
+0.5|2.67|0.913|30.5|15,861
+0.6|2.71|0.908|29.6|11,225
+0.7|2.70|0.910|29.9|7,914
+0.8|2.87|0.907|30.7|4,728
+0.9|2.94|0.903|30.1|3,127
+1.0|3.11|0.898|30.6|2,995
+1.1|3.11|0.898|30.6|2,995
+1.2|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,489
+1.3|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,489
R^2|94%|80%|77%|
-0.8|2.27|0.915|26.8|3,298
-0.7|2.15|0.922|27.6|4,999
-0.6|2.23|0.921|28.4|12,974
-0.5|2.30|0.918|28.2|20,879
-0.4|2.28|0.919|28.3|24,897
-0.3|2.32|0.919|28.5|37,395
-0.2|2.35|0.918|28.8|35,716
-0.1|2.37|0.918|28.9|38,760
+0.0|2.44|0.918|29.7|42,560
+0.1|2.50|0.917|30.2|31,420
+0.2|2.54|0.917|30.5|31,382
+0.3|2.59|0.917|31.1|23,743
+0.4|2.65|0.913|30.4|17,319
+0.5|2.67|0.913|30.5|15,861
+0.6|2.71|0.908|29.6|11,225
+0.7|2.70|0.910|29.9|7,914
+0.8|2.87|0.907|30.7|4,728
+0.9|2.94|0.903|30.1|3,127
+1.0|3.11|0.898|30.6|2,995
+1.1|3.11|0.898|30.6|2,995
+1.2|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,489
+1.3|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,489
R^2|94%|80%|77%|
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL games through February 14, 2016:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.20| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.06|+0.26
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |+0.20|+0.25
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.12| Jhonas Enroth |+0.10|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.07| Scott Darling |+0.15|||+0.22
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.19|||+0.21
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.11| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08|||+0.19
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.06| Philipp Grubauer |+0.09|||+0.15
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.05| Michael Hutchinson |+0.09| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.01|+0.14
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.14| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.12
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.07| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |0.00| Anders Lindback |-0.09| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.11
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.05|||+0.09
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Andrew Hammond |+0.13|||+0.09
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.01| Darcy Kuemper |+0.10|||+0.09
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.00| Eddie Lack |+0.08|||+0.09
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.08| Jaroslav Halak |+0.00|||+0.08
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.06| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.07
STL| Jake Allen |-0.05| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.06
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.04| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.06
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.06|||+0.05
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.00|||+0.03
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |+0.10|||+0.02
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.02
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.02| John Gibson |-0.04|||+0.02
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.00| Jimmy Howard |-0.01|||+0.02
MON| Mike Condon |0.00| Carey Price |+0.01|||+0.01
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.02|||+0.01
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10| Robin Lehner |+0.00|+0.01
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.01|||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.00|||||+0.00
Schedule strengths are measured using the values in the parallel thread.
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.20| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.06|+0.26
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |+0.20|+0.25
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.12| Jhonas Enroth |+0.10|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.07| Scott Darling |+0.15|||+0.22
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.19|||+0.21
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.11| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08|||+0.19
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.06| Philipp Grubauer |+0.09|||+0.15
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.05| Michael Hutchinson |+0.09| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.01|+0.14
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.14| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.12
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.07| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |0.00| Anders Lindback |-0.09| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.11
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.05|||+0.09
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Andrew Hammond |+0.13|||+0.09
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.01| Darcy Kuemper |+0.10|||+0.09
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.00| Eddie Lack |+0.08|||+0.09
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.08| Jaroslav Halak |+0.00|||+0.08
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.06| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.07
STL| Jake Allen |-0.05| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.06
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.04| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.06
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.06|||+0.05
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.00|||+0.03
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |+0.10|||+0.02
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.02
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.02| John Gibson |-0.04|||+0.02
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.00| Jimmy Howard |-0.01|||+0.02
MON| Mike Condon |0.00| Carey Price |+0.01|||+0.01
SJS| Martin Jones |-0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.02|||+0.01
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10| Robin Lehner |+0.00|+0.01
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.01|||+0.00
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.00|||||+0.00
Schedule strengths are measured using the values in the parallel thread.
Doctor No
Registered User
Correlation values holding steady:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-0.8|2.30|0.912|26.1|1,566
-0.7|2.13|0.923|27.8|7,058
-0.6|2.17|0.923|28.4|12,179
-0.5|2.31|0.919|28.3|22,225
-0.4|2.26|0.921|28.7|28,645
-0.3|2.34|0.919|28.8|36,700
-0.2|2.37|0.918|28.9|41,407
-0.1|2.35|0.919|28.9|36,486
+0.0|2.46|0.916|29.4|43,555
+0.1|2.49|0.916|29.8|33,405
+0.2|2.53|0.915|29.9|31,966
+0.3|2.61|0.914|30.5|33,607
+0.4|2.66|0.913|30.7|22,075
+0.5|2.70|0.912|30.8|20,301
+0.6|2.81|0.911|31.4|11,911
+0.7|2.78|0.913|31.9|5,145
+0.8|3.07|0.901|31.0|3,303
+0.9|3.10|0.893|28.9|1,682
+1.0|3.12|0.897|30.3|3,230
+1.1|3.12|0.897|30.3|3,230
+1.2|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,548
+1.3|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,548
R^2|94%|70%|68%|
-0.8|2.30|0.912|26.1|1,566
-0.7|2.13|0.923|27.8|7,058
-0.6|2.17|0.923|28.4|12,179
-0.5|2.31|0.919|28.3|22,225
-0.4|2.26|0.921|28.7|28,645
-0.3|2.34|0.919|28.8|36,700
-0.2|2.37|0.918|28.9|41,407
-0.1|2.35|0.919|28.9|36,486
+0.0|2.46|0.916|29.4|43,555
+0.1|2.49|0.916|29.8|33,405
+0.2|2.53|0.915|29.9|31,966
+0.3|2.61|0.914|30.5|33,607
+0.4|2.66|0.913|30.7|22,075
+0.5|2.70|0.912|30.8|20,301
+0.6|2.81|0.911|31.4|11,911
+0.7|2.78|0.913|31.9|5,145
+0.8|3.07|0.901|31.0|3,303
+0.9|3.10|0.893|28.9|1,682
+1.0|3.12|0.897|30.3|3,230
+1.1|3.12|0.897|30.3|3,230
+1.2|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,548
+1.3|3.14|0.902|31.9|1,548
R^2|94%|70%|68%|
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
So, I'm reading it correctly by saying that Antti Niemi has the "easier" games by this metric and Kari gets the tougher ones...?
(Assuming I'm correct above, otherwise disregard) Is there any correlation, even if just by your eye, the workhorse goalies will have the SRS metric "lowered" (that is, towards the negative/easier) just because they play so many different teams and likely play for a good team themselves (thereby removing one "strong" team from the opponent equation) and that if a backup plays a stronger team once or twice it carries much heavier weight in the metric...?
Or, are players like Enroth just thrown in to tougher games for the hell of it...?
As I say that, I learned that Al Montoya will get the nod tonight against my Penguins...red hot Pens, that +0.19 might go up...(?)
(Assuming I'm correct above, otherwise disregard) Is there any correlation, even if just by your eye, the workhorse goalies will have the SRS metric "lowered" (that is, towards the negative/easier) just because they play so many different teams and likely play for a good team themselves (thereby removing one "strong" team from the opponent equation) and that if a backup plays a stronger team once or twice it carries much heavier weight in the metric...?
Or, are players like Enroth just thrown in to tougher games for the hell of it...?
As I say that, I learned that Al Montoya will get the nod tonight against my Penguins...red hot Pens, that +0.19 might go up...(?)
Doctor No
Registered User
Great question - my speculation is that a workhorse goaltender would have a worse schedule strength than the same goaltender (on the same team). I have two lines of reasoning, both of which point in the same direction.
(1)
Suppose that you have a goalie who plays every single game, and only gets pulled when struggling. When's he most likely to be struggling? Against a tougher team. So in this extreme hypothetical, the backup goalie only plays tougher teams.
There aren't any situations exactly like this nowadays, but there are some that approach it.
(2)
Another thing that plays into this is that there's more pressure for "star" goaltenders to always play at home (where it's objectively easier to win). Chicago fans were paying to see Tony Esposito, Rangers fans are paying to see Lundqvist, Buffalo fans were paying to see Dominik Hasek.
This seems to be the main reason why I calculate Esposito with an easier schedule. Percentage of minutes played at home, Esposito vs. Chicago's #2 goalie, for each year where I have data, and where Esposito was the undisputed starter in Chicago:
Season|Esposito Home %|Chicago #2 Home %
1971-72|62%|32%
1972-73|60%|24%
1973-74|49%|56%*
1974-75|52%|30%*
1975-76|54%|32%
1976-77|53%|58%*
1977-78|53%|42%
1978-79|56%|29%
1979-80|57%|9%
1980-81|58%|14%
1981-82|51%|47%
Asterisks mark seasons where the #2 goaltender played ten games or fewer.
(3)
Of course, sometimes the results just come out expecting a pattern of coaching usage when none exists - I posted about this here (where I thought it was interesting, but apparently no one agreed
):
http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=113580027
But I went through a long and detailed discussion looking through the differences in schedule between 1971-72 Cheevers (+0.05 SoS) and 1971-72 Johnston (-0.42 SoS), which is a tremendous difference that deserves exploration.
And then...
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/BOS1971.html
You look at the actual pattern, and it's clear (at least to me) that with few exceptions, Boston rotated Cheevers and Johnston pretty evenly.
(4)
With Enroth and Quick, it looks to be a case where Enroth is playing almost exclusively on the road:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/LOS2015.html
(So perhaps Quick is being treated similarly to the "star" goaltenders, getting the home starts)?
(1)
Suppose that you have a goalie who plays every single game, and only gets pulled when struggling. When's he most likely to be struggling? Against a tougher team. So in this extreme hypothetical, the backup goalie only plays tougher teams.
There aren't any situations exactly like this nowadays, but there are some that approach it.
(2)
Another thing that plays into this is that there's more pressure for "star" goaltenders to always play at home (where it's objectively easier to win). Chicago fans were paying to see Tony Esposito, Rangers fans are paying to see Lundqvist, Buffalo fans were paying to see Dominik Hasek.
This seems to be the main reason why I calculate Esposito with an easier schedule. Percentage of minutes played at home, Esposito vs. Chicago's #2 goalie, for each year where I have data, and where Esposito was the undisputed starter in Chicago:
1971-72|62%|32%
1972-73|60%|24%
1973-74|49%|56%*
1974-75|52%|30%*
1975-76|54%|32%
1976-77|53%|58%*
1977-78|53%|42%
1978-79|56%|29%
1979-80|57%|9%
1980-81|58%|14%
1981-82|51%|47%
Asterisks mark seasons where the #2 goaltender played ten games or fewer.
(3)
Of course, sometimes the results just come out expecting a pattern of coaching usage when none exists - I posted about this here (where I thought it was interesting, but apparently no one agreed
):http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showpost.php?p=113580027
But I went through a long and detailed discussion looking through the differences in schedule between 1971-72 Cheevers (+0.05 SoS) and 1971-72 Johnston (-0.42 SoS), which is a tremendous difference that deserves exploration.
And then...
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/BOS1971.html
You look at the actual pattern, and it's clear (at least to me) that with few exceptions, Boston rotated Cheevers and Johnston pretty evenly.
(4)
With Enroth and Quick, it looks to be a case where Enroth is playing almost exclusively on the road:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/LOS2015.html
(So perhaps Quick is being treated similarly to the "star" goaltenders, getting the home starts)?
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Interesting stuff.
Another thought I had is how this metric goes from year to year for goaltenders...does it trace along any perceived peak...? Does a goalie tandem (or comparable goalie tandem, like in Pittsburgh Fleury/Greiss to Fleury/Zatkoff, each time Fleury had a fringe NHL goaltender who was scarcely capable of earning points - at least by my critical eye) get effected by usage after a coaching change, management change, etc.
Not work that I'm tasking you to, of course ...just thinking aloud in case it sparks a legitimately good thought with/for someone else...
Another thought I had is how this metric goes from year to year for goaltenders...does it trace along any perceived peak...? Does a goalie tandem (or comparable goalie tandem, like in Pittsburgh Fleury/Greiss to Fleury/Zatkoff, each time Fleury had a fringe NHL goaltender who was scarcely capable of earning points - at least by my critical eye) get effected by usage after a coaching change, management change, etc.
Not work that I'm tasking you to, of course
...just thinking aloud in case it sparks a legitimately good thought with/for someone else...
Doctor No
Registered User
Thanks!
I agree, this is something that's on my list to do - put together a rigorous coaching study, and see to what extent patterns pervade from year to year.
I agree, this is something that's on my list to do - put together a rigorous coaching study, and see to what extent patterns pervade from year to year.
Doctor No
Registered User
Decided to check today's "star goaltenders" and see their usage at home over their careers.
Ignoring neutral site games (irrelevant now, and trivial over the course of the league), we'd expect 50% of minutes to be played at home.
Jonathan Quick:
Season|Quick Home %
2007-08|43%
2008-09|39%
2009-10|54%
2010-11|54%
2011-12|51%
2012-13|50%
2013-14|61%
2014-15|52%
Henrik Lundqvist:
Season|Lundqvist Home %
2005-06|59%
2006-07|51%
2007-08|55%
2008-09|56%
2009-10|55%
2010-11|50%
2011-12|53%
2012-13|53%
2013-14|55%
2014-15|56%
Carey Price:
Season|Price Home %
2007-08|48%
2008-09|48%
2009-10|52%
2010-11|54%
2011-12|54%
2012-13|56%
2013-14|62%
2014-15|56%
Ignoring neutral site games (irrelevant now, and trivial over the course of the league), we'd expect 50% of minutes to be played at home.
Jonathan Quick:
2007-08|43%
2008-09|39%
2009-10|54%
2010-11|54%
2011-12|51%
2012-13|50%
2013-14|61%
2014-15|52%
Henrik Lundqvist:
2005-06|59%
2006-07|51%
2007-08|55%
2008-09|56%
2009-10|55%
2010-11|50%
2011-12|53%
2012-13|53%
2013-14|55%
2014-15|56%
Carey Price:
2007-08|48%
2008-09|48%
2009-10|52%
2010-11|54%
2011-12|54%
2012-13|56%
2013-14|62%
2014-15|56%
Hi Peeepz, running a NHL prediction-page in Germany the great work you are doing here Doctor No caught my eye. I really appreciate it and it helps me in figuring out the outcomes of the matchups.
During the last days, I figured out that in most cases the goalie with more SA showed the better performance and meanwhile, goaltenders with SA between 15 and 25 often struggle.
Is this a well-known fact or just random?
I thought if I take 2 equaly strong goalies and try to figure out, which team will have more Shot on goal(mostly the home team) it could help to predict the goalie performance and thus, the outcome of the game.
During the last days, I figured out that in most cases the goalie with more SA showed the better performance and meanwhile, goaltenders with SA between 15 and 25 often struggle.
Is this a well-known fact or just random?
I thought if I take 2 equaly strong goalies and try to figure out, which team will have more Shot on goal(mostly the home team) it could help to predict the goalie performance and thus, the outcome of the game.
hatterson
Registered User
Check out this thread: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1632645
It looks at home goalies perform versus various shot volumes and possible explanations.
It looks at home goalies perform versus various shot volumes and possible explanations.
Doctor No
Registered User
I'll pull some updated information when I can - I'd do it now, but my thumb drive is on my other computer.
Doctor No
Registered User
EDIT: when I started to get the data in the format needed for what I wanted to do, there were enough annoying things in the data that I spent the entire weekend cleaning up the game logs. It's unlikely that anyone other than me will ever notice.
Doctor No
Registered User
2015-16 NHL goaltender strengths of schedule, through February 21:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.08| Curtis McElhinney |+0.21| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.08|+0.29
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.10| Kari Lehtonen |+0.11|||+0.20
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.11|+0.20
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.14| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.02|+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.15|||+0.17
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.07| Jhonas Enroth |+0.09|||+0.16
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10| Robin Lehner |-0.05|+0.15
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.07| Philipp Grubauer |+0.08|||+0.15
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.04| Scott Darling |+0.09|||+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.13
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.08|||+0.12
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.08| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.00| Anders Lindback |-0.06| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.11
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Antti Raanta |-0.10|||+0.09
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.01| Andrew Hammond |+0.10|||+0.09
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.07
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.02| Carter Hutton |+0.09|||+0.07
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Eddie Lack |+0.06|||+0.07
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.05| Jaroslav Halak |+0.00|||+0.06
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.05
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.02| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.05
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.04| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.05
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.04| John Gibson |-0.09|||+0.05
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.02| Jimmy Howard |+0.05|||+0.03
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.00|||+0.03
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.01|||+0.02
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.02
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |+0.07|||+0.01
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.02| Darcy Kuemper |+0.03|||+0.01
MON| Mike Condon |-0.01| Carey Price |-0.01|||+0.00
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.08| Curtis McElhinney |+0.21| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.08|+0.29
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.10| Kari Lehtonen |+0.11|||+0.20
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.05| Reto Berra |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.11|+0.20
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.14| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.02|+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.15|||+0.17
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.07| Jhonas Enroth |+0.09|||+0.16
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.10| Linus Ullmark |+0.10| Robin Lehner |-0.05|+0.15
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.07| Philipp Grubauer |+0.08|||+0.15
CHI| Corey Crawford |-0.04| Scott Darling |+0.09|||+0.13
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.13
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.04| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.08|||+0.12
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.08| Karri Ramo |+0.04|||+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.00| Anders Lindback |-0.06| Louis Domingue |-0.11|+0.11
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Antti Raanta |-0.10|||+0.09
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.01| Andrew Hammond |+0.10|||+0.09
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.07
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.02| Carter Hutton |+0.09|||+0.07
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Eddie Lack |+0.06|||+0.07
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.05| Jaroslav Halak |+0.00|||+0.06
STL| Jake Allen |-0.04| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.05
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.02| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.05
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.04| Jacob Markstrom |-0.01|||+0.05
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.04| John Gibson |-0.09|||+0.05
DET| Petr Mrazek |+0.02| Jimmy Howard |+0.05|||+0.03
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Jeff Zatkoff |+0.00|||+0.03
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.01| Keith Kinkaid |-0.01|||+0.02
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.05| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.02
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |+0.07|||+0.01
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.02| Darcy Kuemper |+0.03|||+0.01
MON| Mike Condon |-0.01| Carey Price |-0.01|||+0.00
Doctor No
Registered User
And the correlations between opponent strength and traditional metrics, for 2015-16:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-0.8|2.09|0.926|28.3|5,552
-0.7|2.12|0.926|28.5|7,437
-0.6|2.25|0.922|28.7|17,945
-0.5|2.28|0.920|28.6|22,978
-0.4|2.42|0.915|28.5|30,099
-0.3|2.41|0.915|28.4|33,776
-0.2|2.39|0.916|28.6|35,829
-0.1|2.40|0.917|28.9|39,776
+0.0|2.39|0.919|29.7|37,906
+0.1|2.43|0.919|29.9|43,220
+0.2|2.50|0.917|30.1|39,352
+0.3|2.56|0.916|30.3|35,710
+0.4|2.61|0.914|30.4|30,360
+0.5|2.68|0.913|30.6|19,483
+0.6|2.77|0.911|31.3|10,791
+0.7|2.78|0.912|31.7|5,453
+0.8|3.09|0.893|29.0|1,746
+0.9|3.09|0.893|29.0|1,746
+1.0|3.11|0.898|30.4|3,412
+1.1|3.11|0.898|30.4|3,412
+1.2|3.13|0.902|31.9|1,666
+1.3|3.13|0.902|31.9|1,666
R^2|93%|76%|59%|
This is somewhat less predictive than usual, likely because a lot more teams are closely bunched together.
-0.8|2.09|0.926|28.3|5,552
-0.7|2.12|0.926|28.5|7,437
-0.6|2.25|0.922|28.7|17,945
-0.5|2.28|0.920|28.6|22,978
-0.4|2.42|0.915|28.5|30,099
-0.3|2.41|0.915|28.4|33,776
-0.2|2.39|0.916|28.6|35,829
-0.1|2.40|0.917|28.9|39,776
+0.0|2.39|0.919|29.7|37,906
+0.1|2.43|0.919|29.9|43,220
+0.2|2.50|0.917|30.1|39,352
+0.3|2.56|0.916|30.3|35,710
+0.4|2.61|0.914|30.4|30,360
+0.5|2.68|0.913|30.6|19,483
+0.6|2.77|0.911|31.3|10,791
+0.7|2.78|0.912|31.7|5,453
+0.8|3.09|0.893|29.0|1,746
+0.9|3.09|0.893|29.0|1,746
+1.0|3.11|0.898|30.4|3,412
+1.1|3.11|0.898|30.4|3,412
+1.2|3.13|0.902|31.9|1,666
+1.3|3.13|0.902|31.9|1,666
R^2|93%|76%|59%|
This is somewhat less predictive than usual, likely because a lot more teams are closely bunched together.
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Random question with regard to statistics: are the higher save percentages (against the grain of the trend of an otherwise pretty normal distribution it seems like, interestingly) for +1.2 and +1.3 a product of those teams getting a ton of shots from dominating a weaker team and we see that save percentages are at their highest (I thought...) when goalies face 40+ shots...?
Or is it just small sample size + teams being mental geared up to try to take down the best...?
Or is it just small sample size + teams being mental geared up to try to take down the best...?
Doctor No
Registered User
Good question - I think it's just an anomaly, since the curve for all three measures (S/60, GAA, Sv%) is typically monotone. For instance, here's last year's completed correlation table:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.6|1.74|0.926|23.4|2,479
-1.5|1.94|0.925|25.9|4,960
-1.4|1.91|0.925|25.4|7,442
-1.3|2.01|0.924|26.3|9,953
-1.2|2.01|0.928|27.8|9,964
-1.1|1.97|0.928|27.5|7,483
-1.0|2.07|0.927|28.4|7,476
-0.9|1.92|0.932|28.2|7,456
-0.8|1.99|0.928|27.7|4,966
-0.7|2.07|0.925|27.4|9,899
-0.6|2.27|0.919|28.1|9,892
-0.5|2.28|0.921|28.7|14,874
-0.4|2.28|0.918|27.9|19,852
-0.3|2.36|0.917|28.5|22,387
-0.2|2.39|0.917|28.9|29,857
-0.1|2.48|0.915|29.1|39,726
0.0|2.54|0.915|29.8|49,640
0.1|2.55|0.914|29.9|59,506
0.2|2.62|0.913|30.1|61,962
0.3|2.68|0.912|30.3|61,981
0.4|2.70|0.911|30.3|52,033
0.5|2.82|0.909|30.8|42,111
0.6|2.77|0.910|30.8|29,716
0.7|2.88|0.909|31.5|14,834
0.8|2.91|0.910|32.3|9,891
0.9|2.88|0.909|31.8|2,478
1.0|2.88|0.909|31.8|2,478
R^2|96%|85%|90%|
-1.6|1.74|0.926|23.4|2,479
-1.5|1.94|0.925|25.9|4,960
-1.4|1.91|0.925|25.4|7,442
-1.3|2.01|0.924|26.3|9,953
-1.2|2.01|0.928|27.8|9,964
-1.1|1.97|0.928|27.5|7,483
-1.0|2.07|0.927|28.4|7,476
-0.9|1.92|0.932|28.2|7,456
-0.8|1.99|0.928|27.7|4,966
-0.7|2.07|0.925|27.4|9,899
-0.6|2.27|0.919|28.1|9,892
-0.5|2.28|0.921|28.7|14,874
-0.4|2.28|0.918|27.9|19,852
-0.3|2.36|0.917|28.5|22,387
-0.2|2.39|0.917|28.9|29,857
-0.1|2.48|0.915|29.1|39,726
0.0|2.54|0.915|29.8|49,640
0.1|2.55|0.914|29.9|59,506
0.2|2.62|0.913|30.1|61,962
0.3|2.68|0.912|30.3|61,981
0.4|2.70|0.911|30.3|52,033
0.5|2.82|0.909|30.8|42,111
0.6|2.77|0.910|30.8|29,716
0.7|2.88|0.909|31.5|14,834
0.8|2.91|0.910|32.3|9,891
0.9|2.88|0.909|31.8|2,478
1.0|2.88|0.909|31.8|2,478
R^2|96%|85%|90%|
Doctor No
Registered User
2015-16 NHL goaltender strengths of schedule, using games through March 15, 2016:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2015-16 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.00| Garret Sparks |-0.11|+0.26
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.06| Reto Berra |+0.17| Calvin Pickard |+0.12|+0.23
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.11| Karri Ramo |+0.05| Joni Ortio |+0.10|+0.21
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.09| Curtis McElhinney |+0.16| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.06|+0.21
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.03| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.13|||+0.16
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.08| Kari Lehtonen |+0.07|||+0.15
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Jhonas Enroth |+0.08|||+0.14
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.10| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.03|+0.14
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |-0.04|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.02| Eddie Lack |+0.10|||+0.11
CHI| Corey Crawford |0.00| Scott Darling |+0.11|||+0.11
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.09|||+0.11
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.08| Linus Ullmark |+0.07| Robin Lehner |-0.03|+0.11
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.00| Keith Kinkaid |+0.10|||+0.10
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Philipp Grubauer |+0.05|||+0.09
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.01| Anders Lindback |-0.07| Louis Domingue |-0.01|+0.07
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.06
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.06
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.04|||+0.05
MON| Mike Condon |+0.01| Carey Price |-0.02| Ben Scrivens |+0.03|+0.05
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.06| John Gibson |-0.02|||+0.05
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.04| Jacob Markstrom |0.00|||+0.05
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.05| Jaroslav Halak |-0.01|||+0.04
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.01| Jimmy Howard |+0.03|||+0.04
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.03|||+0.03
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.01| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.01|||+0.03
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.02| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04|||+0.02
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.00| Andrew Hammond |+0.01|||+0.01
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.00| Carter Hutton |+0.01|||+0.01
STL| Jake Allen |+0.01| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.00
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.15| James Reimer |+0.00| Garret Sparks |-0.11|+0.26
COL| Semyon Varlamov |-0.06| Reto Berra |+0.17| Calvin Pickard |+0.12|+0.23
CAL| Jonas Hiller |-0.11| Karri Ramo |+0.05| Joni Ortio |+0.10|+0.21
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.09| Curtis McElhinney |+0.16| Joonas Korpisalo |-0.06|+0.21
TBL| Ben Bishop |+0.03| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.13|||+0.16
DAL| Antti Niemi |-0.08| Kari Lehtonen |+0.07|||+0.15
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Jhonas Enroth |+0.08|||+0.14
WIN| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.03| Michael Hutchinson |+0.10| Connor Hellebuyck |+0.03|+0.14
PHI| Steve Mason |+0.08| Michal Neuvirth |-0.04|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.02| Eddie Lack |+0.10|||+0.11
CHI| Corey Crawford |0.00| Scott Darling |+0.11|||+0.11
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.02| Al Montoya |+0.09|||+0.11
BUF| Chad Johnson |+0.08| Linus Ullmark |+0.07| Robin Lehner |-0.03|+0.11
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.00| Keith Kinkaid |+0.10|||+0.10
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Philipp Grubauer |+0.05|||+0.09
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.01| Anders Lindback |-0.07| Louis Domingue |-0.01|+0.07
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Jonas Gustavsson |-0.07|||+0.06
EDM| Cameron Talbot |+0.02| Anders Nilsson |+0.09|||+0.06
SJS| Martin Jones |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.04|||+0.05
MON| Mike Condon |+0.01| Carey Price |-0.02| Ben Scrivens |+0.03|+0.05
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.06| John Gibson |-0.02|||+0.05
VAN| Ryan Miller |+0.04| Jacob Markstrom |0.00|||+0.05
NYI| Thomas Greiss |-0.05| Jaroslav Halak |-0.01|||+0.04
DET| Petr Mrazek |-0.01| Jimmy Howard |+0.03|||+0.04
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.01| Antti Raanta |-0.03|||+0.03
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.01| Jeff Zatkoff |-0.01|||+0.03
MIN| Devan Dubnyk |+0.02| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04|||+0.02
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.00| Andrew Hammond |+0.01|||+0.01
NAS| Pekka Rinne |+0.00| Carter Hutton |+0.01|||+0.01
STL| Jake Allen |+0.01| Brian Elliott |+0.01|||+0.00
Doctor No
Registered User
And here's an updated correlations table - things are looking pretty nice in total (higher than when I posted in late February, although still not up to - for instance - last year):
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-0.8|1.98|0.932|29.0|4,418
-0.7|2.08|0.927|28.5|8,455
-0.6|2.18|0.922|27.9|18,938
-0.5|2.25|0.921|28.3|31,464
-0.4|2.39|0.916|28.3|41,533
-0.3|2.41|0.916|28.5|45,989
-0.2|2.45|0.916|29.1|41,962
-0.1|2.46|0.916|29.4|40,037
+0.0|2.41|0.919|29.9|31,863
+0.1|2.49|0.917|29.8|42,224
+0.2|2.57|0.914|29.9|46,175
+0.3|2.64|0.913|30.3|45,844
+0.4|2.66|0.912|30.4|43,748
+0.5|2.73|0.913|31.2|24,894
+0.6|2.70|0.913|31.2|16,543
+0.7|2.70|0.911|30.4|6,273
+0.8|2.99|0.902|30.5|4,138
+0.9|2.99|0.902|30.5|4,138
+1.0|3.06|0.904|31.9|2,081
+1.1|3.06|0.904|31.9|2,081
R^2|95%|84%|85%|
-0.8|1.98|0.932|29.0|4,418
-0.7|2.08|0.927|28.5|8,455
-0.6|2.18|0.922|27.9|18,938
-0.5|2.25|0.921|28.3|31,464
-0.4|2.39|0.916|28.3|41,533
-0.3|2.41|0.916|28.5|45,989
-0.2|2.45|0.916|29.1|41,962
-0.1|2.46|0.916|29.4|40,037
+0.0|2.41|0.919|29.9|31,863
+0.1|2.49|0.917|29.8|42,224
+0.2|2.57|0.914|29.9|46,175
+0.3|2.64|0.913|30.3|45,844
+0.4|2.66|0.912|30.4|43,748
+0.5|2.73|0.913|31.2|24,894
+0.6|2.70|0.913|31.2|16,543
+0.7|2.70|0.911|30.4|6,273
+0.8|2.99|0.902|30.5|4,138
+0.9|2.99|0.902|30.5|4,138
+1.0|3.06|0.904|31.9|2,081
+1.1|3.06|0.904|31.9|2,081
R^2|95%|84%|85%|
Last edited:
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Last night on Coach's Corner, Don Cherry remarked that whenever they had a game they thought they were gonna lose or that it was gonna be a tough game he would go with Gilles Gilbert to "protect" Gerry Cheevers...then he referenced Gilbert's 17 straight wins...which I think happened in 1976 when Cheevers was in the WHA for much of the season...
Looking at Doc's site, it looks like that holds some water in 1976 (if I know how to read) but he didn't really have a lot of choices when Cheevers wasn't there with sub-NHL caliber goalie Reece...does Cherry's claim generally hold water though? Did he "protect" Cheevers...?
Looking at Doc's site, it looks like that holds some water in 1976 (if I know how to read) but he didn't really have a lot of choices when Cheevers wasn't there with sub-NHL caliber goalie Reece...does Cherry's claim generally hold water though? Did he "protect" Cheevers...?
Doctor No
Registered User
Great question - and you definitely know how to read. 
First, you're right about Gilbert's streak - which started on December 26, 1975 and ended (last win) on February 29, 1976. Of course, the streak was abetted by being pulled early (three goals on five shots) in a January 17 loss at St. Louis, and in a January 2 tie at Vancouver (four goals on sixteen shots) - in both of those, Dave Reece took the bullet. Actually, Reece's excellent play earned the tie (which went to him since the Bruins' GTG was while he was in net).
Purely from a numbers standpoint, Cherry's claim doesn't hold much water. Going year by year, starting with Cheevers' return from the WHA:
1975-76: Gilbert (+0.04 SoS), Cheevers (-0.38 SoS).
This year has the best case, and it does look like Cheevers had some cupcakes in there, but looking at the patterns itself it's very close to an alternating pattern:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/BOS1975.html
The only time the pattern broke (pre-playoffs) was when Cheevers started in Montreal (hardly a cupcake).
1976-77: Cheevers (+0.00), Gilbert (-0.18).
1977-78: Cheevers (-0.06), Gilbert (-0.24), John Grahame's Dad (-0.12).
1978-79: Cheevers (+0.05), Gilbert (+0.00).
1979-80: Cheevers (-0.07), Gilbert (-0.11).
I haven't looked at the specific patterns more in depth (perhaps there's a back-to-back effect that I'm missing or something). Cherry's well on record as being pro-Cheevers (and some of his other descriptions make it sound almost like he was regularly hazing Gilbert).
First, you're right about Gilbert's streak - which started on December 26, 1975 and ended (last win) on February 29, 1976. Of course, the streak was abetted by being pulled early (three goals on five shots) in a January 17 loss at St. Louis, and in a January 2 tie at Vancouver (four goals on sixteen shots) - in both of those, Dave Reece took the bullet. Actually, Reece's excellent play earned the tie (which went to him since the Bruins' GTG was while he was in net).
Purely from a numbers standpoint, Cherry's claim doesn't hold much water. Going year by year, starting with Cheevers' return from the WHA:
1975-76: Gilbert (+0.04 SoS), Cheevers (-0.38 SoS).
This year has the best case, and it does look like Cheevers had some cupcakes in there, but looking at the patterns itself it's very close to an alternating pattern:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/logs/BOS1975.html
The only time the pattern broke (pre-playoffs) was when Cheevers started in Montreal (hardly a cupcake).
1976-77: Cheevers (+0.00), Gilbert (-0.18).
1977-78: Cheevers (-0.06), Gilbert (-0.24), John Grahame's Dad (-0.12).
1978-79: Cheevers (+0.05), Gilbert (+0.00).
1979-80: Cheevers (-0.07), Gilbert (-0.11).
I haven't looked at the specific patterns more in depth (perhaps there's a back-to-back effect that I'm missing or something). Cherry's well on record as being pro-Cheevers (and some of his other descriptions make it sound almost like he was regularly hazing Gilbert).
Michael Farkas
Celebrate 68
Minus your first sentence, that all checks out...
Let me ask this...how is that SoS number generated? Is it average-based or cumulative? i.e. would playing more games in general likely boost your SoS? I'm not sure how to frame my question better than that unfortunately...which, again, flies in the face of your thoughts about my abilities...
Let me ask this...how is that SoS number generated? Is it average-based or cumulative? i.e. would playing more games in general likely boost your SoS? I'm not sure how to frame my question better than that unfortunately...which, again, flies in the face of your thoughts about my abilities...
