NHL Goaltenders and Strength of Opponents

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
It's not cumulative (so if all of your games are against the same team (and all on the home or on the road), then you'll have the same SoS whether you play them one time or ten times).

Now that I've got 50 years of league data, I've started playing with additional adjustments to this - like back-to-backs - but this is just pure average schedule strength.

Schedule strength is the average schedule-adjusted goal differential of the goaltender's opponents (weighted by minutes played). Right now, the Washington Capitals are measured at 1.320 goals above average if you face them on the road, and the Colorado Avalanche are measured at 1.527 goals below average if you face them at home. So if we make up a hypothetical goaltender who faces both teams for full games, then their SoS will be (+1.320 - 1.527) / 2 = -0.104.

Because no measure is perfect, I also track a goaltender's average opponent's shooting percentage (relative to league average, weighted by shots faced) and the proportion of games that goaltenders: (1) play at home and on the road, and (2) play against top quartile and bottom quartile teams.
 

morehockeystats

Unusual hockey stats
Dec 13, 2016
617
296
Columbus
morehockeystats.com
It's not cumulative (so if all of your games are against the same team (and all on the home or on the road), then you'll have the same SoS whether you play them one time or ten times).

Now that I've got 50 years of league data, I've started playing with additional adjustments to this - like back-to-backs - but this is just pure average schedule strength.

Schedule strength is the average schedule-adjusted goal differential of the goaltender's opponents (weighted by minutes played). Right now, the Washington Capitals are measured at 1.320 goals above average if you face them on the road, and the Colorado Avalanche are measured at 1.527 goals below average if you face them at home. So if we make up a hypothetical goaltender who faces both teams for full games, then their SoS will be (+1.320 - 1.527) / 2 = -0.104.

Because no measure is perfect, I also track a goaltender's average opponent's shooting percentage (relative to league average, weighted by shots faced) and the proportion of games that goaltenders: (1) play at home and on the road, and (2) play against top quartile and bottom quartile teams.

I assume the EN goals are excluded aren't they? Both from the goal differential and the shooting %?
 

Doctor No

Registered User
Oct 26, 2005
9,250
3,971
hockeygoalies.org
For strength of schedule, ENGs are included - for predictive purposes, SRS algorithms do a bit better when ENGs are removed (and blowouts are partially truncated), but retrospectively it's pretty good as a first-order approximation.

For shooting percentage, most certainly ENGs are removed.
 

morehockeystats

Unusual hockey stats
Dec 13, 2016
617
296
Columbus
morehockeystats.com
Goaltenders by Elo (min 10 games):
http://morehockeystats.com/players/goalieratings

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