Doctor No
Registered User
The skewness in minutes played is largely a reflection that there are 17 NHL teams with a positive power rating, and only 13 with a negative power rating (but there are some doozies among those 13).
NHL Goaltenders and Strength of Opponents
- Thread starter Doctor No
- Start date
Doctor No
Registered User
Current - so they represent the best "full season" team strength from October through last night (for good and for bad).
Doctor No
Registered User
Here's an update using NHL games played through February 8th:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |+0.05| Dustin Tokarski |-0.31|||+0.36
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.13| Eddie Lack |+0.22|||+0.34
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.11| Ray Emery |+0.23|||+0.33
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.27|||+0.31
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.19| Calvin Pickard |+0.09| Reto Berra |-0.11|+0.30
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.28|||+0.29
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.11|||+0.28
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.05| Keith Kinkaid |+0.32|||+0.28
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.26|||+0.26
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.25
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.16|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.12| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.02|||+0.14
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.17|||+0.14
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.00| Thomas Greiss |+0.13|||+0.13
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.07|||+0.13
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.06| Michael Hutchinson |+0.07|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.12
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.09| Antti Raanta |-0.02|||+0.11
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04| Niklas Backstrom |+0.14|||+0.10
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.01| Devan Dubnyk |-0.09|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.02| Cameron Talbot |+0.06|||+0.09
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.07| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.15|||+0.08
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.05| James Reimer |-0.01|||+0.06
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.01|||+0.06
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.04| Viktor Fasth |-0.02|||+0.05
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.10|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.10| Michal Neuvirth |+0.07|||+0.02
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.10| Petr Mrazek |-0.12|||+0.02
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.08|||||
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.03|||||
These are based on the team strengths of schedules that I just published in the corresponding (ELO/SRS) thread.
Minor notes:
And here are the R^2 values comparable to what I posted above:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
-1.0|2.12|0.925|28.2
-0.5|2.22|0.919|27.4
+0.0|2.70|0.909|29.7
+0.5|2.87|0.905|30.2
+1.0|2.97|0.911|33.6
R^2|95%|53%|78%
A bit of misdirection in both save percentage and shots/game, but the composite looks great (as I guess you'd expect).
MON| Carey Price |+0.05| Dustin Tokarski |-0.31|||+0.36
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.13| Eddie Lack |+0.22|||+0.34
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.11| Ray Emery |+0.23|||+0.33
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.27|||+0.31
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.19| Calvin Pickard |+0.09| Reto Berra |-0.11|+0.30
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.28|||+0.29
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.11|||+0.28
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.05| Keith Kinkaid |+0.32|||+0.28
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.26|||+0.26
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.25
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.16|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.12| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.02|||+0.14
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.17|||+0.14
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.00| Thomas Greiss |+0.13|||+0.13
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.07|||+0.13
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.06| Michael Hutchinson |+0.07|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.12
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.09| Antti Raanta |-0.02|||+0.11
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.04| Niklas Backstrom |+0.14|||+0.10
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.01| Devan Dubnyk |-0.09|||+0.09
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.02| Cameron Talbot |+0.06|||+0.09
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.07| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.15|||+0.08
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.05| James Reimer |-0.01|||+0.06
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.01|||+0.06
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.04| Viktor Fasth |-0.02|||+0.05
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.10|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.10| Michal Neuvirth |+0.07|||+0.02
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.10| Petr Mrazek |-0.12|||+0.02
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.08|||||
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.03|||||
These are based on the team strengths of schedules that I just published in the corresponding (ELO/SRS) thread.
Minor notes:
- I haven't dug much into the split between Miller and Lack in Vancouver, but Miller's consistently been on the favorable end of things.
- Devan Dubnyk's Minnesota strength of schedule is now at -0.32 goals. With one more game, he'll enter the chart for the Wild.
- Highest strength of schedule overall so far - Louis Domingue, +0.46 goals.
- Lowest strength of schedule so far - Troy Grosenick, -0.79 goals.
- Keith Kinkaid's still getting the tough spot starts (and this doesn't incorporate things such as back-to-backs).
- Conversely, Niklas Svedberg was being so sheltered, the Bruins finally just sent him down to Providence. As I (think I) said above, I'd love to do a coaches' analysis on this - do some coaches protect the backup more than others? My biggest guess is that it's a home/road thing - no one wants to pay $80 to watch the star on the bench.
And here are the R^2 values comparable to what I posted above:
-1.0|2.12|0.925|28.2
-0.5|2.22|0.919|27.4
+0.0|2.70|0.909|29.7
+0.5|2.87|0.905|30.2
+1.0|2.97|0.911|33.6
R^2|95%|53%|78%
A bit of misdirection in both save percentage and shots/game, but the composite looks great (as I guess you'd expect).
Doctor No
Registered User
Lack played in Chicago last night, which is going to increase his and Miller's schedule disparity (although who am I to argue with a 5-4 win)?
I'll do a full update through Sunday's games, but Lack's strength of schedule now stands at +0.26, with Miller at -0.12.
And Lack's looked good doing it:
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/lack.html
Part of it is that Lack's played 10 road games to 7 home games, but he's a lot of tough games no matter the venue.
I'll do a full update through Sunday's games, but Lack's strength of schedule now stands at +0.26, with Miller at -0.12.
And Lack's looked good doing it:
http://www.hockeygoalies.org/bio/lack.html
Part of it is that Lack's played 10 road games to 7 home games, but he's a lot of tough games no matter the venue.
Doctor No
Registered User
Totals through NHL games of February 15th:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.15| Devan Dubnyk |-0.28|+0.43
MON| Carey Price |+0.03| Dustin Tokarski |-0.37|||+0.40
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.12| Eddie Lack |+0.27|||+0.39
STL| Jake Allen |-0.21| Brian Elliott |+0.12|||+0.33
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.19| Calvin Pickard |+0.08| Reto Berra |-0.12|+0.32
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.26|||+0.30
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.27|||+0.28
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.11| Ray Emery |+0.14|||+0.25
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.25|||+0.25
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.06| Keith Kinkaid |+0.31|||+0.25
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.25
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.08| Antti Raanta |-0.11|||+0.19
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |-0.02| Chad Johnson |+0.16|||+0.18
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.12|||+0.16
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.07| Martin Jones |+0.08|||+0.15
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.06| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|||+0.14
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.13|||+0.13
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.09| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.03|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.03| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.11
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.16|||+0.10
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Thomas Greiss |+0.12|||+0.10
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.02| Michael Hutchinson |+0.06|||+0.09
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |+0.01|||+0.07
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.03| Justin Peters |-0.05|||+0.01
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.03|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.10| Petr Mrazek |-0.08|||+0.01
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.06|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.03| Cameron Talbot |-0.02|||+0.01
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.00
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.07|||||
Opponent strengths are currently estimated using the values in the parallel (SRS) thread.
Justin Peters plays his tenth game, leaving Anaheim as the only club without two goaltenders playing ten or more games each.
You can't really say that the Wild are sheltering Devan Dubnyk, since he's playing every game. Having said that, he's had an easy slate of opponents thus far.
Tokarski and Jake Allen continue to be sheltered. So does Ryan Miller (?).
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.15| Devan Dubnyk |-0.28|+0.43
MON| Carey Price |+0.03| Dustin Tokarski |-0.37|||+0.40
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.12| Eddie Lack |+0.27|||+0.39
STL| Jake Allen |-0.21| Brian Elliott |+0.12|||+0.33
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.19| Calvin Pickard |+0.08| Reto Berra |-0.12|+0.32
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.26|||+0.30
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.27|||+0.28
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.11| Ray Emery |+0.14|||+0.25
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.25|||+0.25
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.06| Keith Kinkaid |+0.31|||+0.25
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.25
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.08| Antti Raanta |-0.11|||+0.19
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |-0.02| Chad Johnson |+0.16|||+0.18
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.12|||+0.16
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.07| Martin Jones |+0.08|||+0.15
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.06| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|||+0.14
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.01| Alex Stalock |-0.13|||+0.13
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.09| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.03|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.03| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.11
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.16|||+0.10
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.03| Thomas Greiss |+0.12|||+0.10
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.02| Michael Hutchinson |+0.06|||+0.09
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |+0.01|||+0.07
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.03| Justin Peters |-0.05|||+0.01
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.03|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.10| Petr Mrazek |-0.08|||+0.01
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.06|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.03| Cameron Talbot |-0.02|||+0.01
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.00
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.07|||||
Opponent strengths are currently estimated using the values in the parallel (SRS) thread.
Justin Peters plays his tenth game, leaving Anaheim as the only club without two goaltenders playing ten or more games each.
You can't really say that the Wild are sheltering Devan Dubnyk, since he's playing every game. Having said that, he's had an easy slate of opponents thus far.
Tokarski and Jake Allen continue to be sheltered. So does Ryan Miller (?).
Doctor No
Registered User
And an updated correlation table:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|2.11|0.925|28.4|6,926
-0.5|2.24|0.919|27.5|12,210
+0.0|2.71|0.909|29.7|26,579
+0.5|2.88|0.905|30.2|22,063
+1.0|2.91|0.912|33.0|6,784
R^2|94%|53%|78%|
-1.0|2.11|0.925|28.4|6,926
-0.5|2.24|0.919|27.5|12,210
+0.0|2.71|0.909|29.7|26,579
+0.5|2.88|0.905|30.2|22,063
+1.0|2.91|0.912|33.0|6,784
R^2|94%|53%|78%|
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL goaltenders' strength of schedule, though games of February 22:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.01| Niklas Backstrom |+0.11| Devan Dubnyk |-0.24|+0.35
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.17| Calvin Pickard |+0.05| Reto Berra |-0.18|+0.35
MON| Carey Price |+0.02| Dustin Tokarski |-0.33|||+0.35
STL| Jake Allen |-0.20| Brian Elliott |+0.12|||+0.32
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.09| Eddie Lack |+0.22|||+0.30
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.07| Anders Lindback |-0.18|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.23|||+0.25
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.10|+0.23
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.23|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.08| Antti Raanta |-0.13|||+0.22
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.23|||+0.21
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.19|||+0.18
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.18|||+0.17
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.12|||+0.16
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Robin Lehner |-0.11|||+0.16
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.10| Ray Emery |+0.05|||+0.15
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.05| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.08|||+0.13
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.06|||+0.13
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.05| Devan Dubnyk |-0.07|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.12
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |-0.02|||+0.09
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.13|||+0.06
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.01| Justin Peters |-0.07|||+0.06
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.00| Alex Stalock |-0.05|||+0.05
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.04|||+0.03
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.08|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.02| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.02
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.00|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.02|||+0.01
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.09|||||
And an updated correlation table (between opponent strength and popular goaltending metrics):
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|2.05|0.927|28.0|5,477
-0.5|2.19|0.920|27.5|11,185
+0.0|2.64|0.911|29.7|32,189
+0.5|2.85|0.906|30.3|28,903
+1.0|2.98|0.903|30.6|3,625
R^2|96%|83%|83%|
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.01| Niklas Backstrom |+0.11| Devan Dubnyk |-0.24|+0.35
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.17| Calvin Pickard |+0.05| Reto Berra |-0.18|+0.35
MON| Carey Price |+0.02| Dustin Tokarski |-0.33|||+0.35
STL| Jake Allen |-0.20| Brian Elliott |+0.12|||+0.32
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.09| Eddie Lack |+0.22|||+0.30
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.07| Anders Lindback |-0.18|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.23|||+0.25
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.10|+0.23
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.23|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.08| Antti Raanta |-0.13|||+0.22
NJD| Cory Schneider |+0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.23|||+0.21
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.19|||+0.18
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.18|||+0.17
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.04| Carter Hutton |+0.12|||+0.16
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Robin Lehner |-0.11|||+0.16
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.10| Ray Emery |+0.05|||+0.15
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.05| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.08|||+0.13
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.06|||+0.13
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.05| Devan Dubnyk |-0.07|||+0.12
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.14|||+0.12
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |-0.02|||+0.09
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.13|||+0.06
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.01| Justin Peters |-0.07|||+0.06
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.00| Alex Stalock |-0.05|||+0.05
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |+0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.04|||+0.03
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.08|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.02| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.02
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.00|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |-0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.02|||+0.01
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.09|||||
And an updated correlation table (between opponent strength and popular goaltending metrics):
-1.0|2.05|0.927|28.0|5,477
-0.5|2.19|0.920|27.5|11,185
+0.0|2.64|0.911|29.7|32,189
+0.5|2.85|0.906|30.3|28,903
+1.0|2.98|0.903|30.6|3,625
R^2|96%|83%|83%|
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL goaltenders strength of schedule, games through March 1:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.00| Niklas Backstrom |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.22|+0.32
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.29|||+0.31
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.16| Calvin Pickard |+0.08| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.30
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |+0.27|||+0.28
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.08| Eddie Lack |+0.16|||+0.24
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.08|||+0.23
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.05| Anders Lindback |-0.17|||+0.23
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.06| Antti Raanta |-0.16|||+0.22
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.21|||+0.22
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.10| Ray Emery |+0.07| Rob Zepp |+0.12|+0.21
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.05| Carter Hutton |+0.14|||+0.19
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.09|||+0.19
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.05| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.10| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.08|+0.18
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.12|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.06| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.11|||+0.17
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.02| Thomas Greiss |+0.19|||+0.17
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.07| Devan Dubnyk |-0.09|||+0.16
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.15|||+0.15
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.08|||+0.15
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.15|||+0.14
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.11|||+0.13
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.16|||+0.09
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.01| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.08
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.08|||+0.07
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.06
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.03| Petr Mrazek |-0.07|||+0.04
SJS| Antti Niemi |-0.02| Alex Stalock |-0.04|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.01
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |-0.01|||+0.00
Really pretty correlations at this point:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|1.97|0.926|26.7|7,597
-0.5|2.28|0.918|28.0|15,331
+0.0|2.56|0.913|29.3|32,238
+0.5|2.78|0.909|30.6|29,982
+0.9|3.04|0.903|31.3|7,859
R^2|96%|79%|90%|
As you can see in the parallel thread (of team strengths), the top-rated team would now be Nashville on the road (0.633 + 0.277/2 = 0.771), which is why there is now no data in the +1.0 cell above (which covers a range between +0.8 and +1.2). So I'll show +0.9 above for the time being.
It should be noted that the correlations are calculated on the entire set of data, which goes from -1.8 (thanks, Buffalo!) to +0.9.
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.00| Niklas Backstrom |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.22|+0.32
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.29|||+0.31
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.16| Calvin Pickard |+0.08| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.30
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |+0.27|||+0.28
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.08| Eddie Lack |+0.16|||+0.24
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.08|||+0.23
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.05| Anders Lindback |-0.17|||+0.23
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.06| Antti Raanta |-0.16|||+0.22
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.21|||+0.22
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.10| Ray Emery |+0.07| Rob Zepp |+0.12|+0.21
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.05| Carter Hutton |+0.14|||+0.19
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.09|||+0.19
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.05| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.10| Andrei Vasilevski |+0.08|+0.18
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.05| Robin Lehner |-0.12|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.06| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.11|||+0.17
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.02| Thomas Greiss |+0.19|||+0.17
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.07| Devan Dubnyk |-0.09|||+0.16
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.15|||+0.15
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.06| Martin Jones |+0.08|||+0.15
CAR| Cam Ward |+0.02| Anton Khudobin |+0.15|||+0.14
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.11|||+0.13
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.16|||+0.09
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.01| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.08
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.01| Chad Johnson |+0.08|||+0.07
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.07| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.06
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.03| Petr Mrazek |-0.07|||+0.04
SJS| Antti Niemi |-0.02| Alex Stalock |-0.04|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.04|||+0.01
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |-0.01|||+0.00
Really pretty correlations at this point:
-1.0|1.97|0.926|26.7|7,597
-0.5|2.28|0.918|28.0|15,331
+0.0|2.56|0.913|29.3|32,238
+0.5|2.78|0.909|30.6|29,982
+0.9|3.04|0.903|31.3|7,859
R^2|96%|79%|90%|
As you can see in the parallel thread (of team strengths), the top-rated team would now be Nashville on the road (0.633 + 0.277/2 = 0.771), which is why there is now no data in the +1.0 cell above (which covers a range between +0.8 and +1.2). So I'll show +0.9 above for the time being.
It should be noted that the correlations are calculated on the entire set of data, which goes from -1.8 (thanks, Buffalo!) to +0.9.
Here's an interesting blog article using NHL standings points as a quality-of-competition metric. Not great but very interesting.
http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/talbot-vs-lundqvist-introducing-ludas.html
http://satheronwaivers.blogspot.com/2015/03/talbot-vs-lundqvist-introducing-ludas.html
Doctor No
Registered User
I liked this - thanks for posting it. A few comments (I'll read more in depth in a bit):
Lundqvist faced an average opponent 0.04 goals worse than average, and with a shooting percentage 0.0% above average.
Talbot faced an average opponent 0.12 goals worse than average, and with a shooting percentage 0.6% above average.
The first set (-0.04, -0.12) is most comparable to your third line (0.994, 0.906), and they at least directionally agree (so that's good).
- I'll quibble with "whole new method", since I've been doing this for several years now.
- I understand that the name is probably derived from one of the authors. In general, I find that these obfuscate what's going on, and add an additional barrier of entry towards understanding.
- Goals Saved Above Average per Hour doesn't really give goaltenders credit for being average over long periods of time, and average goaltenders definitely have value.
- Using raw standings points as the metric to compare schedule strength has a bit of apples-to-oranges flavor, and also has some arbitrariness to it (as each season has a different proportion of three-point games, and teams have opportunities at these games that don't always line up with their abilities).
- Then, the adjustment factor gives a result where units aren't intuitive (for instance, why is a multiplicative adjustment to GSAA/Hour the correct way to adjust for schedule? It may be appropriate, but it's very hard to tell).
- Standings points also presents difficulties if you're going to try and do this mid-season (not just the lower totals overall, but the fact that different teams have different numbers of games).
- Not adjusting standings points for each team's strength of schedule adds a level of inaccuracy (particularly in years where schedules are heavily division focused).
- I think you'll get a different conclusion if you incorporate home/road splits into the analysis.
Lundqvist faced an average opponent 0.04 goals worse than average, and with a shooting percentage 0.0% above average.
Talbot faced an average opponent 0.12 goals worse than average, and with a shooting percentage 0.6% above average.
The first set (-0.04, -0.12) is most comparable to your third line (0.994, 0.906), and they at least directionally agree (so that's good).
Doctor No
Registered User
NHL goaltender strengths of schedule, through games of March 8th:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.06| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.30
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.19|+0.28
MON| Carey Price |+0.00| Dustin Tokarski |-0.27|||+0.27
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.18|||+0.24
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.07|||+0.23
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.11| John Gibson |+0.11|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.16|||+0.20
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.18|||+0.20
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Anton Khudobin |+0.18|||+0.19
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.20|||+0.19
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.07| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.18
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.10|||+0.17
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Robin Lehner |-0.13|||+0.17
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.08| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|||+0.16
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.02| Thomas Greiss |+0.17|||+0.15
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.06| Ray Emery |+0.04| Rob Zepp |+0.09|+0.15
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.02| Carter Hutton |+0.12|||+0.14
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.01| Karri Ramo |-0.11|||+0.12
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.05| Martin Jones |+0.06|||+0.12
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.15|||+0.08
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.06|||+0.07
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.01| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.05
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.08|||+0.05
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.08| James Reimer |+0.03|||+0.04
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.10| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.10|+0.04
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.04
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.06| Viktor Fasth |+0.03|||+0.04
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.02|||+0.03
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.00| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.02
Remember - the units here are goals/game, so (for instance) Semyon Varlamov's average opponent (time weighted) is +0.15 goals/game better than average.
Again, I only show goaltenders who have ten games or more with a given team.
These are based on the team strengths shown in the parallel (SRS) thread, giving or taking half of the home-ice advantage depending on the game's location.
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.06| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.30
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.19|+0.28
MON| Carey Price |+0.00| Dustin Tokarski |-0.27|||+0.27
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.06| Anders Lindback |-0.18|||+0.24
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.07|||+0.23
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.11| John Gibson |+0.11|||+0.22
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.16|||+0.20
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.02| Keith Kinkaid |+0.18|||+0.20
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.01| Anton Khudobin |+0.18|||+0.19
BOS| Tuukka Rask |-0.01| Niklas Svedberg |-0.20|||+0.19
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.07| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.18
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.10|||+0.17
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.04| Robin Lehner |-0.13|||+0.17
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.08| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|||+0.16
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.02| Thomas Greiss |+0.17|||+0.15
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.06| Ray Emery |+0.04| Rob Zepp |+0.09|+0.15
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.02| Carter Hutton |+0.12|||+0.14
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.01| Karri Ramo |-0.11|||+0.12
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.05| Martin Jones |+0.06|||+0.12
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.07| Curtis McElhinney |+0.15|||+0.08
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.02| Cameron Talbot |-0.06|||+0.07
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.01| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.05
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.08|||+0.05
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.08| James Reimer |+0.03|||+0.04
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.06| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.10| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.10|+0.04
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.04
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.06| Viktor Fasth |+0.03|||+0.04
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |-0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.02|||+0.03
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.00| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.03
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.01| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.02
Remember - the units here are goals/game, so (for instance) Semyon Varlamov's average opponent (time weighted) is +0.15 goals/game better than average.
Again, I only show goaltenders who have ten games or more with a given team.
These are based on the team strengths shown in the parallel (SRS) thread, giving or taking half of the home-ice advantage depending on the game's location.
Doctor No
Registered User
And some pretty correlations between opponent strength and popular goaltending metrics:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|2.01|0.928|28.0|5,965
-0.5|2.17|0.922|27.9|12,088
+0.0|2.50|0.914|29.1|33,790
+0.5|2.79|0.908|30.4|31,654
+0.9|3.00|0.908|32.6|8,029
R^2|98%|83%|85%|
-1.0|2.01|0.928|28.0|5,965
-0.5|2.17|0.922|27.9|12,088
+0.0|2.50|0.914|29.1|33,790
+0.5|2.79|0.908|30.4|31,654
+0.9|3.00|0.908|32.6|8,029
R^2|98%|83%|85%|
Doctor No
Registered User
Updated goaltender strength values, using games through March 15, 2015th (and team strengths as represented in the parallel thread):
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
MON| Carey Price |+0.02| Dustin Tokarski |-0.27|||+0.29
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.04| Reto Berra |-0.12|+0.28
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.26
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.11| Devan Dubnyk |-0.15|+0.26
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.16|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.20|||+0.22
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03| Keith Kinkaid |+0.19|||+0.22
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.05|||+0.21
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.02| Antti Raanta |-0.15|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.08| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.17
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.03| Robin Lehner |-0.13|||+0.17
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.13|||+0.17
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.00| Thomas Greiss |+0.15|||+0.15
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.06|||+0.15
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.07|||+0.14
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.10|||+0.12
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.02| Curtis McElhinney |+0.14|||+0.12
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.10|||+0.10
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.04| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.09|+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.03| Ray Emery |+0.04| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.08
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.03| Martin Jones |+0.04|||+0.07
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.08| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.06
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.03| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.06
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |0.00| Michael Hutchinson |+0.05|||+0.05
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.05
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.02| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.03|||+0.03
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.04| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.03
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.04| James Reimer |+0.05|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.01
And correlations, since everyone loves correlations:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|2.02|0.928|28.1|6,332
-0.5|2.31|0.918|28.1|16,906
+0.0|2.51|0.913|28.9|33,528
+0.5|2.83|0.907|30.6|31,339
+0.9|2.83|0.914|32.9|6,311
R^2|97%|72%|86%|
MON| Carey Price |+0.02| Dustin Tokarski |-0.27|||+0.29
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.15| Calvin Pickard |+0.04| Reto Berra |-0.12|+0.28
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08| Anders Lindback |-0.19|||+0.26
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.11| Devan Dubnyk |-0.15|+0.26
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.16|||+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.20|||+0.22
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03| Keith Kinkaid |+0.19|||+0.22
STL| Jake Allen |-0.16| Brian Elliott |+0.05|||+0.21
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.02| Antti Raanta |-0.15|||+0.17
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.08| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.17
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.03| Robin Lehner |-0.13|||+0.17
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.13|||+0.17
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |+0.00| Thomas Greiss |+0.15|||+0.15
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.06|||+0.15
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.07|||+0.14
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.10|||+0.12
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.02| Curtis McElhinney |+0.14|||+0.12
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.00| Karri Ramo |-0.10|||+0.10
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.04| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.09|+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.03| Ray Emery |+0.04| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.08
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.03| Martin Jones |+0.04|||+0.07
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.08| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.06
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.03| Alex Stalock |-0.03|||+0.06
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |0.00| Michael Hutchinson |+0.05|||+0.05
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.09|||+0.05
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.02| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.03|||+0.03
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.04| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.03
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.04| James Reimer |+0.05|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.01
And correlations, since everyone loves correlations:
-1.0|2.02|0.928|28.1|6,332
-0.5|2.31|0.918|28.1|16,906
+0.0|2.51|0.913|28.9|33,528
+0.5|2.83|0.907|30.6|31,339
+0.9|2.83|0.914|32.9|6,311
R^2|97%|72%|86%|
Doctor No
Registered User
Through NHL games of March 22, 2015:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.17| Scott Darling |+0.25|+0.42
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |+0.05| Reto Berra |-0.17|+0.31
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.18|||+0.29
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.03| Niklas Svedberg |-0.25|||+0.27
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.25|||+0.26
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08| Anders Lindback |-0.16|||+0.24
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.17|||+0.20
STL| Jake Allen |-0.11| Brian Elliott |+0.07|||+0.19
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.08| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.18
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.03| Niklas Backstrom |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|+0.18
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.07|||+0.16
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |-0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.14|||+0.15
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.02| Robin Lehner |-0.12| Andrew Hammond |-0.06|+0.14
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.03| Carter Hutton |+0.10|||+0.13
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.01| Karri Ramo |-0.13|||+0.13
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.04|||+0.10
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.05| Martin Jones |+0.05|||+0.10
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03| Keith Kinkaid |+0.07|||+0.10
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.04| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.08|+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.02| Ray Emery |+0.02| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.07
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.03| Curtis McElhinney |+0.08|||+0.05
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.10|||+0.05
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.04|||+0.04
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.02| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.04
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |+0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.05|||+0.04
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.02
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.05|||+0.01
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.04| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.01
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.03| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.01
The bearded Scott Darling enters the chart, and pushes the Blackhawks to the top of the list (for good or for bad).
Darling's schedule is also the hardest of the year for any goaltender playing ten games or more (of course, you'd expect the best and worst schedules to be by players who barely meet the GP threshold).
Related to the parenthetical above, Niklas Svedberg and Dustin Tokarski have the easiest schedules of the year so far.
Devan Dubnyk's schedule has normalized somewhat - now at -0.08 with the Wild (was -0.07 with the Coyotes).
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.17| Scott Darling |+0.25|+0.42
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.14| Calvin Pickard |+0.05| Reto Berra |-0.17|+0.31
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.10| John Gibson |+0.18|||+0.29
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.03| Niklas Svedberg |-0.25|||+0.27
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.25|||+0.26
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.08| Anders Lindback |-0.16|||+0.24
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.17|||+0.20
STL| Jake Allen |-0.11| Brian Elliott |+0.07|||+0.19
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.08| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.10|||+0.18
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.03| Niklas Backstrom |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.08|+0.18
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.10| Devan Dubnyk |-0.07|||+0.16
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |-0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.14|||+0.15
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.02| Robin Lehner |-0.12| Andrew Hammond |-0.06|+0.14
NSH| Pekka Rinne |-0.03| Carter Hutton |+0.10|||+0.13
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.01| Karri Ramo |-0.13|||+0.13
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.07| Eddie Lack |+0.04|||+0.10
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.05| Martin Jones |+0.05|||+0.10
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.03| Keith Kinkaid |+0.07|||+0.10
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.04| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.13| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.08|+0.09
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.02| Ray Emery |+0.02| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.07
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.03| Curtis McElhinney |+0.08|||+0.05
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.05| Justin Peters |-0.10|||+0.05
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.04|||+0.04
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.02| Petr Mrazek |-0.06|||+0.04
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |+0.01| Michael Hutchinson |+0.05|||+0.04
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.02
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.05|||+0.01
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.04| James Reimer |+0.02|||+0.01
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.03| Alex Stalock |+0.02|||+0.01
The bearded Scott Darling enters the chart, and pushes the Blackhawks to the top of the list (for good or for bad).
Darling's schedule is also the hardest of the year for any goaltender playing ten games or more (of course, you'd expect the best and worst schedules to be by players who barely meet the GP threshold).
Related to the parenthetical above, Niklas Svedberg and Dustin Tokarski have the easiest schedules of the year so far.
Devan Dubnyk's schedule has normalized somewhat - now at -0.08 with the Wild (was -0.07 with the Coyotes).
Last edited:
Doctor No
Registered User
And here are the correlation tables through March 22:
Opp Strength
|
GAA
|
Sv%
|
S/60
|
Min
-1.0|2.05|0.928|28.3|6,698
-0.5|2.29|0.918|27.9|15,463
+0.0|2.52|0.914|29.4|41,422
+0.5|2.75|0.910|30.5|32,698
+1.0|2.90|0.909|31.8|2,174
R^2|98%|87%|89%|
Thanks to the New York Rangers for their big (score-wise) win last night, putting a team back into the +1.0 bucket.
The overall correlation coefficients are calculated based on all buckets in the data (not just the ones shown here).
I'll show the graphs at the end of the season - no point posting four fresh graphs every single week - but they look neat.
One place where there's not a lot of correlation (but there used to be) is in the percentage of games completed. The theory is that, against stronger opponents, a starter is more likely to be pulled mid-game. Right now, the r^2 is approximately 59%, which is good but not great.
-1.0|2.05|0.928|28.3|6,698
-0.5|2.29|0.918|27.9|15,463
+0.0|2.52|0.914|29.4|41,422
+0.5|2.75|0.910|30.5|32,698
+1.0|2.90|0.909|31.8|2,174
R^2|98%|87%|89%|
Thanks to the New York Rangers for their big (score-wise) win last night, putting a team back into the +1.0 bucket.
The overall correlation coefficients are calculated based on all buckets in the data (not just the ones shown here).
I'll show the graphs at the end of the season - no point posting four fresh graphs every single week - but they look neat.
One place where there's not a lot of correlation (but there used to be) is in the percentage of games completed. The theory is that, against stronger opponents, a starter is more likely to be pulled mid-game. Right now, the r^2 is approximately 59%, which is good but not great.
Doctor No
Registered User
Ah, that's easy - because I missed it (manual data process FTW). Will edit now - thanks!
Numbers of Kay Whitmore and Guy Hebert in 92-93 are quite interesting. Whitmore was backup with extremely easy schedule, Hebert one with a very hard schedule. Did that easy schedule make Whitmore look that much better than he actually was? He was Whalers reject prior to that season and he faded away only few season after that.
Whitmore and Vanbiesbrouck were the hottest names going in to the 93 expansion draft. Newspaper reports said that if Mighty Ducks would have won the draw they would have chosen Kay Whitmore over Vanbiesbrouck (salary was part of that reason though). When Florida won the draw and selected Vanbiesbrouck as their first pick, Canucks could protect Whitmore and Anaheim had to settle for Hebert.
Whitmore and Vanbiesbrouck were the hottest names going in to the 93 expansion draft. Newspaper reports said that if Mighty Ducks would have won the draw they would have chosen Kay Whitmore over Vanbiesbrouck (salary was part of that reason though). When Florida won the draw and selected Vanbiesbrouck as their first pick, Canucks could protect Whitmore and Anaheim had to settle for Hebert.
Ohashi_Jouzu*
Registered User
Absolutely possible. Hell, having watched that season with particular interest I'd even say probable. While this thread isn't generating as much conversation as it perhaps "ought" to, I think a "computed" strength of schedule for goalies is incredibly important insight/context to the numbers we all get from our favourite stats site(s).
Doctor No
Registered User
Thanks, guys! This is the exact sort of thing I was hoping these could be used for.
I'm close on a few more years, going back (to 1975-76) - and looking forward to seeing how Parent/Stephenson were used post-Parent injury, along with Cheevers and Dryden.
I'm close on a few more years, going back (to 1975-76) - and looking forward to seeing how Parent/Stephenson were used post-Parent injury, along with Cheevers and Dryden.
Doctor No
Registered User
Through NHL games of March 29, 2015:
Team
|
Goaltender One
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Two
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Goaltender Three
|
2014-15 Strength
|
Schedule Diff
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.15| Scott Darling |+0.18|+0.33
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.11| Calvin Pickard |+0.03| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.22|||+0.23
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.08| John Gibson |+0.15|||+0.23
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.21|||+0.22
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.16|||+0.20
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.05| Anders Lindback |-0.14|||+0.19
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01| Anders Lindback |+0.15|+0.18
STL| Jake Allen |-0.09| Brian Elliott |+0.06|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.06| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.09|||+0.15
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.06|+0.14
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.02| Karri Ramo |-0.10|||+0.12
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.00| Robin Lehner |-0.12| Andrew Hammond |-0.04|+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.08| Devan Dubnyk |-0.04|||+0.12
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.03| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.14| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.10|+0.11
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.02| Martin Jones |+0.07|||+0.09
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.06| Eddie Lack |+0.03|||+0.09
NSH| Pekka Rinne |+0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.09|||+0.08
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |-0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.05|||+0.06
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |+0.00| Michael Hutchinson |+0.06|||+0.06
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.01| Ray Emery |+0.01| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.06
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |+0.03|||+0.04
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.03
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.03| James Reimer |+0.01|||+0.03
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.04| Justin Peters |-0.06|||+0.02
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.08|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.04|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.01|||+0.01
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.04| Alex Stalock |+0.03|||+0.01
Reminder that these use SRS team strengths as reported in the parallel (SRS) thread.
I haven't dug into it too much, but is Scott Darling's schedule (relative to Antti Raanta) an indication of relative trust (and supported by the promotion), or random noise?
Anders Lindback enters the chart for the Sabres, at a decently high level.
Is John Gibson getting the tougher starts relative to Andersen? Hard to say with the injuries.
Remember that numbers represent the start of a conversation, but not the end of a conversation. Context matters.
CHI| Corey Crawford |+0.04| Antti Raanta |-0.15| Scott Darling |+0.18|+0.33
COL| Semyon Varlamov |+0.11| Calvin Pickard |+0.03| Reto Berra |-0.15|+0.26
BOS| Tuukka Rask |+0.02| Niklas Svedberg |-0.22|||+0.23
ANA| Fredrik Andersen |-0.08| John Gibson |+0.15|||+0.23
MON| Carey Price |+0.01| Dustin Tokarski |-0.21|||+0.22
CAR| Cam Ward |-0.04| Anton Khudobin |+0.16|||+0.20
DAL| Kari Lehtonen |+0.05| Anders Lindback |-0.14|||+0.19
BUF| Jhonas Enroth |-0.03| Michal Neuvirth |+0.01| Anders Lindback |+0.15|+0.18
STL| Jake Allen |-0.09| Brian Elliott |+0.06|||+0.16
FLO| Roberto Luongo |-0.06| Alvaro (Al) Montoya |+0.09|||+0.15
MIN| Darcy Kuemper |+0.02| Niklas Backstrom |+0.09| Devan Dubnyk |-0.06|+0.14
CGY| Jonas Hiller |+0.02| Karri Ramo |-0.10|||+0.12
OTT| Craig Anderson |+0.00| Robin Lehner |-0.12| Andrew Hammond |-0.04|+0.12
ARI| Mike Smith |+0.08| Devan Dubnyk |-0.04|||+0.12
TBL| Ben Bishop |-0.03| Evgeni Nabokov |-0.14| Andrei Vasilevski |-0.10|+0.11
LOS| Jonathan Quick |-0.02| Martin Jones |+0.07|||+0.09
VAN| Ryan Miller |-0.06| Eddie Lack |+0.03|||+0.09
NSH| Pekka Rinne |+0.01| Carter Hutton |+0.09|||+0.08
PIT| Marc-Andre Fleury |-0.01| Thomas Greiss |+0.05|||+0.06
WPG| Ondrej Pavelec |+0.00| Michael Hutchinson |+0.06|||+0.06
PHI| Steve Mason |-0.01| Ray Emery |+0.01| Rob Zepp |+0.05|+0.06
NJD| Cory Schneider |-0.01| Keith Kinkaid |+0.03|||+0.04
NYI| Jaroslav Halak |+0.03| Chad Johnson |+0.06|||+0.03
EDM| Ben Scrivens |+0.03| Viktor Fasth |+0.01|||+0.03
TOR| Jonathan Bernier |+0.03| James Reimer |+0.01|||+0.03
WAS| Braden Holtby |-0.04| Justin Peters |-0.06|||+0.02
CBJ| Sergei Bobrovsky |+0.06| Curtis McElhinney |+0.08|||+0.01
DET| Jimmy Howard |-0.05| Petr Mrazek |-0.04|||+0.01
NYR| Henrik Lundqvist |+0.00| Cameron Talbot |-0.01|||+0.01
SJS| Antti Niemi |+0.04| Alex Stalock |+0.03|||+0.01
Reminder that these use SRS team strengths as reported in the parallel (SRS) thread.
I haven't dug into it too much, but is Scott Darling's schedule (relative to Antti Raanta) an indication of relative trust (and supported by the promotion), or random noise?
Anders Lindback enters the chart for the Sabres, at a decently high level.
Is John Gibson getting the tougher starts relative to Andersen? Hard to say with the injuries.
Remember that numbers represent the start of a conversation, but not the end of a conversation. Context matters.
It seem that neither one haven´t got much games when Crawford is healthy, but everything seem to indicate that Darling is more trusted. I was expecting that they would have given Darling more games after his latest callup. Watched few games from Raanta early in the season and even when the numbers weren´t bad I think he could have used his chance better. Interesting situation all in all.
As OT. I won nice bet when Raanta played his first NHL game. Bet was made in 2008-2009 season when he wasn´t really the hottest prospect. (Though my friend might get even if Rasmus Rinne ever plays in NHL. Still don´t believe in that though) It´s always nice to brag when you have a hit. And forget all the misses
How much work would it be to do an analysis on the Canucks goaltending when Schneider and Luongo were both on the team.
Perhaps by season? If it takes too long don't worry about it, but it's been a topic of discussion various times even this season on the Canucks board. Would love to see if the eye matches the stats.
Year ONe: Schneider was sheltered
Year 2: a bit stronger
Year 3: starter in a shortened season (only playing the west probably skews the analysis).
Perhaps by season? If it takes too long don't worry about it, but it's been a topic of discussion various times even this season on the Canucks board. Would love to see if the eye matches the stats.
Year ONe: Schneider was sheltered
Year 2: a bit stronger
Year 3: starter in a shortened season (only playing the west probably skews the analysis).
Doctor No
Registered User
I'm a Darling fan - first, he's got that great beard, and as a bald man, I have to admit to a bit of hair envy. He just seems so genuine in interviews, and appreciative of what he has.
Doctor No
Registered User
I could do something in greater detail if you'd like, but I have a framework already available here:
http://hockeygoalies.org/bio/nhl/vancouver.html
The short version of the story is that your eye test is backed up by the numbers.
2010-11 (Year One):
- Luongo strength of schedule: -0.07
- Schneider strength of schedule: -0.19
2011-12 (Year Two):
- Luongo strength of schedule: -0.01
- Schneider strength of schedule: -0.15
- Luongo strength of schedule: -0.13
- Schneider strength of schedule: -0.06
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