Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[acrobaticgoalie]

Is there anyone in the draft with a good mixture of skill and toughness?

That I know of is Jake Neighbours and Will Cuylle. Cuylle likely doesn't have a high ceiling.

 

[LeafChief]

That I know of is Jake Neighbours and Will Cuylle. Cuylle likely doesn't have a high ceiling.

Cuylle was the 3rd overall pick in the OHL draft to Peterborough and made a big stink about not reporting, threatening to go to the NCAA in the event he wasn't traded to the destination of his choice.

Was traded to Windsor and had a decent rookie season but quite a pedestrian sophomore/draft season.

 

[Kangal]

Does anyone here know if the 2020 draft preview by the Hockey News is out yet? I thought I saw a picture of it somewhere in one of those hockey news sites. Don't want to go out at these times for nothing.
I also found out that the top prospects 2020 publication by the hockey news is sold out. What a shame. At a time like this, they need to print more to keep our minds occupied.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

That I know of is Jake Neighbours and Will Cuylle. Cuylle likely doesn't have a high ceiling.

There are legit concerns about Cuylle having the skills and IQ to hack it in the NHL. I think his stock is going to drop. There are better power wingers out there, and I think we can get similar guys in the later rounds.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

There are legit concerns about Cuylle having the skills and IQ to hack it in the NHL. I think his stock is going to drop. There are better power wingers out there, and I think we can get similar guys in the later rounds.

I don't expect him to be a guy Dubas would target. I'm sure some team will take him in the 2nd or 3rd round and he doesn't exactly have the production for that type of pick for a power forward in the OHL. If he has IQ concerns than he definitely won't be a Dubas pick.

Btw, I'm curious about what group of players you're liking in our range?
2 players I'm liking is O'Rourke and maybe Brisson.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Curious to see what people think about the NHL likely proceeding with the June draft even though the Leafs have a very precarious hold on a playoff spot and could easily find themselves in a lottery position if the season resumes after the draft.

Our 1st round pick is top 10 protected and we're only 4 points up on 21st spot in the league (10th pick) with the possibility of winning the lottery no matter where they place if they just miss the playoffs. Obviously I'd rather then make the playoffs but I don't get why the team wouldn't be against the June draft to at least hedge their bets. Shanahan evens publicly stated he supports the June draft. I don't get why he would support this.

Teams/players that are just outside the playoffs now have been vocal about how unfair it would be to cut things off where they stand right now, how is that any different than teams just barely in right now wrt the draft?

 

[Legion34]

Curious to see what people think about the NHL likely proceeding with the June draft even though the Leafs have a very precarious hold on a playoff spot and could easily find themselves in a lottery position if the season resumes after the draft.

Our 1st round pick is top 10 protected and we're only 4 points up on 21st spot in the league (10th pick) with the possibility of winning the lottery no matter where they place if they just miss the playoffs. Obviously I'd rather then make the playoffs but I don't get why the team wouldn't be against the June draft to at least hedge their bets. Shanahan evens publicly stated he supports the June draft. I don't get why he would support this.

Teams/players that are just outside the playoffs now have been vocal about how unfair it would be to cut things off where they stand right now, how is that any different than teams just barely in right now wrt the draft?

Shanahan supports this because Rogers wants it. We are owned by Rogers/Bell. Rogers wants it for content.

barring some trade scenario getting worked out where we give them money for the pick back (Daly said teams could talk about the conditional pickS) we are giving up a first this or next year. Better to give up the 20th pick

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Shanahan supports this because Rogers wants it. We are owned by Rogers/Bell. Rogers wants it for content.

Makes sense.

barring some trade scenario getting worked out where we give them money for the pick back (Daly said teams could talk about the conditional pickS) we are giving up a first this or next year. Better to give up the 20th pick

But what if it turns out it would've been the 10th pick if the season restarts and next year's is 20th or worse? Just saying, we should absolutely be against having the draft before the season ends if there's any chance of this happening (and there's a fairly decent chance IMO - 4 points up on the team with that pick and they have a game in hand). Even if they cancel the season, there's still an argument to be made bubble teams should be considered for the lottery.

 

[Legion34]

Makes sense.



But what if it turns out it would've been the 10th pick if the season restarts and next year's is 20th or worse? Just saying, we should absolutely be against having the draft before the season ends if there's any chance of this happening (and there's a fairly decent chance IMO - 4 points up on the team with that pick and they have a game in hand). Even if they cancel the season, there's still an argument to be made bubble teams should be considered for the lottery.

well those are 2 different things.

1.). Shanny should not be opposed to the lottery going on now if it’s what the owners want. They write the cheques. It’s their team. People forget that all the time. They own it. We don’t.

2.) the current rumor is that they are going to only allow up to 4 spot jumps. To keep the pick. We would basically have to drop to 13th and win. To get 9th. Then we give up an unprotected 1st that could end up top 3.

from a leaf perspective. Better to give up the 20th now. Imagine the leafs dropped to 11th? Instead of 20th. Or won the lottery next year?

other teams yes absolutely. Toronto doesn’t have their pick for all intents and purposes.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

well those are 2 different things.

1.). Shanny should not be opposed to the lottery going on now if it’s what the owners want. They write the cheques. It’s their team. People forget that all the time. They own it. We don’t.

I already agreed with that part. I'm suggesting YOU (and I) should not want to do the draft in June.

2.) the current rumor is that they are going to only allow up to 4 spot jumps.

Not sure what you mean here but I assume you mean in the lottery draw a team can't move than 4 place. There's still the very real possibility we just outright land in the 10th draft spot.

To keep the pick. We would basically have to drop to 13th and win. To get 9th. Then we give up an unprotected 1st that could end up top 3.

I'm not following. Any of these statements. If we drop 4 points in league-wide standings, we end up 21st overall and get the 10th pick with no movement needed in any other fashion or winning any lottery. Please explain the unprotected 1st part, maybe there's more to our 1st round swap that I don't know.

from a leaf perspective. Better to give up the 20th now. Imagine the leafs dropped to 11th? Instead of 20th. Or won the lottery next year?

other teams yes absolutely. Toronto doesn’t have their pick for all intents and purposes.

I find the odds far higher that we'll end up with a top 10 pick this year than next year. 4 points above the 21st team that has a game in hand vs. (and hope springs eternal!) a new season where this team hopefully gets back to form.

 

[Legion34]

I already agreed with that part. I'm suggesting YOU (and I) should not want to do the draft in June.



Not sure what you mean here but I assume you mean in the lottery draw a team can't move than 4 place. There's still the very real possibility we just outright land in the 10th draft spot.



I'm not following. Any of these statements. If we drop 4 points in league-wide standings, we end up 21st overall and get the 10th pick with no movement needed in any other fashion or winning any lottery. Please explain the unprotected 1st part, maybe there's more to our 1st round swap that I don't know.



I find the odds far higher that we'll end up with a top 10 pick this year than next year. 4 points above the 21st team that has a game in hand vs. (and hope springs eternal!) a new season where this team hopefully gets back to form.

the point I am getting at is that you and I don’t get a vote. The team does. It makes sense for them. So that’s what they vote for. But from your example.

1.) Arizona picks 10th right now. They are 7 pts behind us with 0 games at hand. That’s a lot of ground to lose in 12 games. it is much more likely that we end up in the 11-20 category. Even IF we play all 12 games. Which sounds unlikely. Heck even 6 games sounds unlikely.

2.) if we continue to get out of the playoffs we have to get passed by Florida and get beat by 2 wildcard teams. With the leafs it’s possible. But unlikely. (Which somehow makes it more likely).
Models have Toronto with an 90% chance to make it.

Basically for your scenario to work

1.) the NHL starts up and plays 12 games. Unlikely.

2.) the leafs completely blow up and get beat by Florida and about 10 other teams.

3.) even IF they somehow manage to come back and get beat by all these teams with a healthy lineup. They still have a chance to get bumped out if 10th o because of the lottery.

You may view that as more likely. That a team with 81 pts in the bank can drop to bottom 10. Sure. Next year we have a ton of cap committed with No D and we have no idea what the league will look like. Bob could come back to form and dink us.

There is no real way for us to say whether it is more or less likely that Toronto doesn’t win the lotto next year. There are too many unknowns about next year.

but the odds of Toronto falling to 10th in a few If any regular season games are pretty small.


We have to give up a pick this or next year. Right now the option to give up the 20th pick isn’t a bad one. When we could easily give up 11-17 this year or a Lotto pick next year

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

the point I am getting at is that you and I don’t get a vote. The team does. It makes sense for them. So that’s what they vote for. But from your example.

True enough but my initial post asked how people feel about it, not whether there's anything we can do about it.

1.) Arizona picks 10th right now. They are 7 pts behind us with 0 games at hand. That’s a lot of ground to lose in 12 games. it is much more likely that we end up in the 11-20 category. Even IF we play all 12 games. Which sounds unlikely. Heck even 6 games sounds unlikely.

2.) if we continue to get out of the playoffs we have to get passed by Florida and get beat by 2 wildcard teams. With the leafs it’s possible. But unlikely. (Which somehow makes it more likely).
Models have Toronto with an 90% chance to make it.

Basically for your scenario to work

1.) the NHL starts up and plays 12 games. Unlikely.

2.) the leafs completely blow up and get beat by Florida and about 10 other teams.

3.) even IF they somehow manage to come back and get beat by all these teams with a healthy lineup. They still have a chance to get bumped out if 10th o because of the lottery.

You may view that as more likely. That a team with 81 pts in the bank can drop to bottom 10. Sure. Next year we have a ton of cap committed with No D and we have no idea what the league will look like. Bob could come back to form and dink us.

There is no real way for us to say whether it is more or less likely that Toronto doesn’t win the lotto next year. There are too many unknowns about next year.

but the odds of Toronto falling to 10th in a few If any regular season games are pretty small.


We have to give up a pick this or next year. Right now the option to give up the 20th pick isn’t a bad one. When we could easily give up 11-17 this year or a Lotto pick next year

Eh, you're right. I mistakenly though it was 21st place out of 31 teams but it's the 10 teams below 21st. My mistake, changes my whole argument (and my mind on the subject). Thanks.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm against a June draft and I'll explain why but first I need to give an assumption I'm making and explain the logic I'll be using.

I'm assuming that if there isn't a June draft, but instead the draft is after the season whenever it ends, the lottery will be done as normal. The one reason they're doing the lottery the way it's been suggested is because if they resume the season it's possible a team who's involved in the lottery could make the playoffs and win the cup, so they're only letting them move up 4 spots so the team that wins the cup is picking maybe 7th or 8th at best rather than picking Lafreniere and then winning the cup 3 months later.

Next my logic. I'm basing this only on the asset we get. We have one 1st round pick in the next 2 drafts. Whatever draft scenario leaves us opening for the best pick if we flop is what I want. Ignoring the pick we give to Carolina. For example picking 8th this year and giving up 5th next year is us getting a better asset than giving up 19th this year and picking 25th next year. Ignoring the fact we'd miss the playoffs twice in a row in the first example from the equation, that's something a choice of a June draft or not has no affect on. It'll either happen or it won't. It would suck to give up a 5th overall pick 2021 draft to Carolina sure, we'd look dumb, but 5th(in 2021), 11th, 19th, 31st it's a pick we don't own. I'm looking at the pick we do own.

So here we go. There are 3 cases. June draft, Normal draft and we pick top 10, normal draft and it's not top 10

1. June draft: Under the current proposal we're in the late teens. Even if they included more teams in this farce lottery and we won it we would only move up 4 spots and can't get into the top 10 so in a June draft the pick is Carolina's regardless.

Result: We own an unknown pick in 2021

2. Normal draft and we pick top 10: There are 2 possible cases that would get us into the top 10, both involving us missing the playoffs. We drop like a rock and make up the 7 point gap between us and the bottom 10 and pick there organically, or we win a lottery. This is where my assumption comes into play. In a normal draft I expect they'd revert to a normal lottery given the issue of a playoff team winning a lottery would be out of the question. Thus I think if we won a lottery we'd be top 3. Dropping hard into the top 10 organically is extremely unlikely in my opinion. A lottery win with bad odds would be too, but I think that would be actually way more likely than dropping into the bottom 10.

Result: Low odds of happening but if it does it's probably a top 3 pick, but could be a pick in the 8-10 range if we suck hard

3. Normal draft and it's not top 10. The pick is Carolina's

Result: We own an unknown pick in 2021

So basically my conclusion is if the draft takes place in June the one 1st we do own is in an unknown spot next year. If it's an offseason draft in say September, it's extremely likely we see the same result, owning the 2021 pick, but there is a fallback if we miss the playoffs it could be a top 3 pick, which is way more likely than it being 8-10 IMO. To me a regular draft just feels like a potential safety net benefit to missing the playoffs if the year resumes. It's probably the same 2021 pick we own, but it could be a top 3 pick if we go down the tubes.

Also in the back of my mind is the thought of what happens to the draft and lottery if we postpone it to the offseason and then there's a covid 2nd wave and the season is outright cancelled. Would the league run the lottery as normal(not including us) or would there be some alternation that includes more or all teams, and drawing of all the picks Crosby draft style. I'd rather have that option open to a potential high pick in a cancelled season rather than we already did the draft before the season was cancelled.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I don't expect him to be a guy Dubas would target. I'm sure some team will take him in the 2nd or 3rd round and he doesn't exactly have the production for that type of pick for a power forward in the OHL. If he has IQ concerns than he definitely won't be a Dubas pick.

Btw, I'm curious about what group of players you're liking in our range?
2 players I'm liking is O'Rourke and maybe Brisson.

I do feel like he will go after Brandon Coe or Daniel Torgersson instead. Coe has pretty much everything you want out of Cuylle and more. Torgersson has less puck skills and physicality but is a total speedster and will still go in tight. Seems to be a lot like Engvall.

 

[stickty111]

Anyone more familiar with the draft this season, as I will be looking into it in the near future, what are the players that would be similar to we did in the 2019 draft?

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I do feel like he will go after Brandon Coe or Daniel Torgersson instead. Coe has pretty much everything you want out of Cuylle and more. Torgersson has less puck skills and physicality but is a total speedster and will still go in tight. Seems to be a lot like Engvall.

I'm surprised I haven't heard of this Coe kid before. 6'4 with around a ppg in the OHL on a bad team. How does he not have more hype?

 

[Kiwi]

I'm surprised I haven't heard of this Coe kid before. 6'4 with around a ppg in the OHL on a bad team. How does he not have more hype?

Looking at some write ups on him it looks like consistency and defensive effort are what's hurting his draft stock

Although with his tools and size package you would think somebody would be willing to roll the dice on him before the 3rd round (which is where he seems to be projected)

 

[Byron Bitz]

Anyone else disappointed we have to give up the 18th overall pick in this draft?

 

[Legion34]

Anyone else disappointed we have to give up the 18th overall pick in this draft?

1.) Lebrun and Friedman both said it’s 20th? I do not know why but they both said it. Maybe point %?

2.) it could be a lot worse. Losing 18-20’isnt bad. I would rather that than an unprotected first next year.


My personal hope is we can just buy it back. The NHL is allowing renegotiated trades.
- the canes owe aho a bunch on July 1 (whenever)
why can’t we just offer to pay it back and reverse it?

 

[stickty111]

Anyone else disappointed we have to give up the 18th overall pick in this draft?

No because we had no choice.

 

[ChazzMichaelMichaels]

No because we had no choice.

I mean, I’m disappointed we don’t have a 1st rounder along with realizing it was a necessary evil.

As a draft nut, I really wanna eat my cake and have it too!

 

[Knies iT]

I mean, I’m disappointed we don’t have a 1st rounder along with realizing it was a necessary evil.

As a draft nut, I really wanna eat my cake and have it too!

Potentially would have been able to add a Sanderson/Schneider/Barron caliber D prospect to the pool.

Really hurts losing that pick.

 

[Cor]

There’s a lot of names that could go late in this draft I have interest in. So I’m oddly excited with the late round stockpile we have.

I pumped Dustin Wolf’s tires a lot last year. He went in the 7th round to Calgary and proceeded to have a breakout year in the WHL. I see Dylan Garand in a similar way. He’s slightly bigger than Wolf, which may help his perception.

 

[stickty111]

I mean, I’m disappointed we don’t have a 1st rounder along with realizing it was a necessary evil.

As a draft nut, I really wanna eat my cake and have it too!

Thats fine

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

There’s a lot of names that could go late in this draft I have interest in. So I’m oddly excited with the late round stockpile we have.

I pumped Dustin Wolf’s tires a lot last year. He went in the 7th round to Calgary and proceeded to have a breakout year in the WHL. I see Dylan Garand in a similar way. He’s slightly bigger than Wolf, which may help his perception.

Dustin Wolf had one of the best seasons ever in the WHL last year, even when you adjust for his workload in a system like Everett's.

Amazing how any goalie under 6'2" is pretty much screwed now regardless of how well they play.

Was begging for him with our 7th before we flipped it for a pick this year.