Prospect Info: NHL Entry Draft Discussion Thread - Looking Ahead to 2020

[Canada4Gold]

So let's imagine that it's July 1st, and the world returns back to normal. After nearly four months stuck inside, and at home, with summer in it's full glory, the NHL expects people to stay inside, and watch the playoffs?

The world isn't just going to become normal like a flick of a switch. It's going to be a gradual thing. TBH normal won't exist until a vaccine. The road from this to normal will involve a time where sports can play without fans among other things, but the general public will still be encouraged to stay indoors and social distance, though it won't be as strict as it is now. So if and when the playoffs happen most people will still be indoors anyway.

 

[LeafChief]

Hendrix Lappiere seems very high risk/high reward. Any chance he slips to around where we are picking?

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Hendrix Lappiere seems very high risk/high reward. Any chance he slips to around where we are picking?

Very good chance I would say.

 

[LeafChief]

Very good chance I would say.

Would it be worthwhile for the Leafs to use their 2nd rounder on him or is he too much of a wildcard?

His issue has been with injuries, correct?

 

[hockeynorth]

Would it be worthwhile for the Leafs to use their 2nd rounder on him or is he too much of a wildcard?

His issue has been with injuries, correct?

I would

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Would it be worthwhile for the Leafs to use their 2nd rounder on him or is he too much of a wildcard?

His issue has been with injuries, correct?

If the Leafs staff clears him, it could be a worthwhile risk. Depends on who else is around too.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

One guy you need to keep an eye on is James Hardie. He is not being given a ton of attention, but he is exactly the kind of guy the Leafs should be looking at in the 4th or 5th round assuming he has the hockey IQ. He has 34 goals in 59 games in the OHL as an 18 year old, despite playing on a team that struggled to score and having a slow start to the year. 34 goals puts him 5th for U18 goals in the OHL.

He is not particularly big (5'11", 176lbs) but he is far from a perimeter player and once he gets to 6'0"/6'1", 190-200 lbs (which I think is possible once he hits his prime), he will be a load to handle. Very good skater who should only get better as he gets stronger, strong puck skills and a lethal shot. He needs work on his defensive game and his play away from the puck in general, but it is not exactly like there are many prospects who do not have those same concerns at his age and I am not concerned about his work ethic at all. He will get better, especially once we get our hands on him. My only concern is whether he has the hockey IQ. If he has that, I wouldn't be shocked if he could become another Robertson, or close to it. I think he has the rest of the skills and intangibles to become a 50+ goal scorer in the OHL and a potential top 6 NHLer, and Mississauga should be a competitive team next year too.

If you are looking for a potential steal, look no further.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

One guy you need to keep an eye on is James Hardie. He is not being given a ton of attention, but he is exactly the kind of guy the Leafs should be looking at in the 4th or 5th round assuming he has the hockey IQ. He has 34 goals in 59 games in the OHL as an 18 year old, despite playing on a team that struggled to score and having a slow start to the year. 34 goals puts him 5th for U18 goals in the OHL.

He is not particularly big (5'11", 176lbs) but he is far from a perimeter player and once he gets to 6'0"/6'1", 190-200 lbs (which I think is possible once he hits his prime), he will be a load to handle. Very good skater who should only get better as he gets stronger, strong puck skills and a lethal shot. He needs work on his defensive game and his play away from the puck in general, but it is not exactly like there are many prospects who do not have those same concerns at his age and I am not concerned about his work ethic at all. He will get better, especially once we get our hands on him. My only concern is whether he has the hockey IQ. If he has that, I wouldn't be shocked if he could become another Robertson, or close to it. I think he has the rest of the skills and intangibles to become a 50+ goal scorer in the OHL and a potential top 6 NHLer, and Mississauga should be a competitive team next year too.

If you are looking for a potential steal, look no further.

I like Hardie a lot. Wouldn't mind taking a shot at all.

Foerster could be a steal as well if he slips into the late 2nd considering how bad the rest of the offense was in Barrie was around him. 36 goals and 80 points and his next closest teammate had 47 points this season.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

pick224.com has some goalie stats now.

GSAA is a stat that is there. It's not the best stat but it is something. I think the best indicator personally is QS save percentage. The really promising goalie prospects are in the .850% or greater range. That means Joseph Tynan, Nico Daws and Brett Brochu (keeping in mind that Tynan is 6'0" and had that major injury and Brochu is only 5'11"; so both could go undrafted as a result). You could maybe make a case for some guys in the .840's, including prospect Fabio Iacobo, but I do not think the Leafs should be that desperate for a goalie prospect.

It really just confirms that there are not many great goalie prospects this year, which is what I've been saying all along. The WHL has some more intriguing options, so I want to see what the numbers say about them when they come out, but even when you factor in maybe a dozen quality USA and European goalies, I doubt we are going to be hitting anywhere close to the average number of draftable goalies this year.

 

[LeafChief]

I like Hardie a lot. Wouldn't mind taking a shot at all.

Foerster could be a steal as well if he slips into the late 2nd considering how bad the rest of the offense was in Barrie was around him. 36 goals and 80 points and his next closest teammate had 47 points this season.

Foerster looks like a beast.

 

[Knies iT]

I think Foerster will be this year's Nolan Foote and go a lot higher than expected. Teams rarely pass up on that size/shot combo.

Ridley Greig would be a nice late 2nd round sleeper pick. Stylistically plays a lot like Brayden Schenn.

 

[Fogelhund]

As it is now, I see Foerster mostly around the 38-42 in draft rankings, so he'd need to slip a bit somehow, to end up at our pick. It seems doubtful to me.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Teams are starting to show more and more every year that they aren't afraid to reach in the first round. I expect a team will take Foerster at the end of the first. Kid scored at an excellent rate on a bad team.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

A poster on the main boards mentioned goalie Remi Poirer of the Gatineau Olympiques. He is 6'2 and 220 lbs as a 17 yr old. He had a .900 sv% on a really bad team. I haven't seen him at all and am wondering if anyone has seen him or have any insights? @SeaOfBlue @93LEAFS

Could be a guy to consider in the later rounds?

 

[The Podium]

I think Foerster will be this year's Nolan Foote and go a lot higher than expected. Teams rarely pass up on that size/shot combo.

Ridley Greig would be a nice late 2nd round sleeper pick. Stylistically plays a lot like Brayden Schenn.

Yup, add to that he outscored 2nd place on his team by 33 points although he is the only player to have played all games

 

[SeaOfBlue]

A poster on the main boards mentioned goalie Remi Poirer of the Gatineau Olympiques. He is 6'2 and 220 lbs as a 17 yr old. He had a .900 sv% on a really bad team. I haven't seen him at all and am wondering if anyone has seen him or have any insights? @SeaOfBlue @93LEAFS

Could be a guy to consider in the later rounds?

Juggled with him for a while. Decided not, just like I decided not to go with Fabio Iacobo. This is not a good year for goalies and if we can't get one of the decent ones with one of our 5 picks in rounds 4-6, which is where a good bulk of the goalies should be going unless teams are really desperate and reaching, I would just not bother getting one at all.

He has a .778 save percentage on quality shots. No matter how bad your team is, that is atrocious. My soft cutoff was .850, but would understand if a goalie was maybe lower than that if there was a good reason. However .778 is just a straight 'no'.

Fabio Iacobo would be a much better option. He had an .839 on quality shots, played on a slightly better but still poor team, and he had a .905 with a sub 3 GAA. Decent size at 6'2", 190 as well. I think if all other options were exhausted and we absolutely want to take a goalie in the 7th round or something, you could do a lot worse.

I am still waiting for the data for the WHL goalies. I think they have the deepest crop of CHL goalies by far, with OAer Taylor Gauthier and first year eligible Brayden Peters, Garin Bjorklund, Koen MacInnes and Bryan Thomson all with respectable surface stats. I have calculated the GSAA for them and only Gauthier looks good, but GSAA is not the best stat in the world so I want to see the data that I do not have access to.

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

pick224.com has some goalie stats now.

GSAA is a stat that is there. It's not the best stat but it is something. I think the best indicator personally is QS save percentage. The really promising goalie prospects are in the .850% or greater range. That means Joseph Tynan, Nico Daws and Brett Brochu (keeping in mind that Tynan is 6'0" and had that major injury and Brochu is only 5'11"; so both could go undrafted as a result). You could maybe make a case for some guys in the .840's, including prospect Fabio Iacobo, but I do not think the Leafs should be that desperate for a goalie prospect.

It really just confirms that there are not many great goalie prospects this year, which is what I've been saying all along. The WHL has some more intriguing options, so I want to see what the numbers say about them when they come out, but even when you factor in maybe a dozen quality USA and European goalies, I doubt we are going to be hitting anywhere close to the average number of draftable goalies this year.

I've been working on a stat in my spare time (working 12 hour night shifts so not a lot of focus right now) that would improve on GSAA by comparing every goaltender to a league average workload (SA/60) and adjusting their SV% by a standard deviation while also factoring deviations from the means in terms of high danger and low danger chances. In a vaccum it would still be tough to evaluate a goaltender based on one season so I'm working on a 5 year weighted average model for NHL goalies.

I have a model for the CHL too but it's so much harder to trust/find shot data for the CHL because every arena records it differently (from talking to stats guys in the OHL) and I don't know how to code or find the data within the code of the websites.

I may post some of the data here once the model is complete if you guys are interested.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Juggled with him for a while. Decided not, just like I decided not to go with Fabio Iacobo. This is not a good year for goalies and if we can't get one of the decent ones with one of our 5 picks in rounds 4-6, which is where a good bulk of the goalies should be going unless teams are really desperate and reaching, I would just not bother getting one at all.

He has a .778 save percentage on quality shots. No matter how bad your team is, that is atrocious. My soft cutoff was .850, but would understand if a goalie was maybe lower than that if there was a good reason. However .778 is just a straight 'no'.

Fabio Iacobo would be a much better option. He had an .839 on quality shots, played on a slightly better but still poor team, and he had a .905 with a sub 3 GAA. Decent size at 6'2", 190 as well. I think if all other options were exhausted and we absolutely want to take a goalie in the 7th round or something, you could do a lot worse.

I am still waiting for the data for the WHL goalies. I think they have the deepest crop of CHL goalies by far, with OAer Taylor Gauthier and first year eligible Brayden Peters, Garin Bjorklund, Koen MacInnes and Bryan Thomson all with respectable surface stats. I have calculated the GSAA for them and only Gauthier looks good, but GSAA is not the best stat in the world so I want to see the data that I do not have access to.

What are your thoughts on Calle Clang? I would like to see us get a Euro goalie in the system. Euro goalies are starting to dominate the field and Canada is falling behind.

 

[Kiwi]

What are your thoughts on Calle Clang? I would like to see us get a Euro goalie in the system. Euro goalies are starting to dominate the field and Canada is falling behind.

If your taking goalies late the more time you can hang onto and develop them the better imo, I'd much prefer to take a Euro or Russian goalie late every year than a kid out of North America

 

[LeafsOHLRangers98]

If your taking goalies late the more time you can hang onto and develop them the better imo, I'd much prefer to take a Euro or Russian goalie late every year than a kid out of North America

If Jan Bednar slips to one of our later picks (5th or later) I would take him with one of our picks.

One of the youngest goalies in the draft (17 until late August), 6'4" and extremely quick and lanky. Has also played 10 games in each of the last 2 seasons in the main Czech league. Could be an excellent long term project.

 

[Kiwi]

If Jan Bednar slips to one of our later picks (5th or later) I would take him with one of our picks.

One of the youngest goalies in the draft (17 until late August), 6'4" and extremely quick and lanky. Has also played 10 games in each of the last 2 seasons in the main Czech league. Could be an excellent long term project.

That's the type of punt I like taking late in the draft, I'd look for a body type and mobility then hope like hell we can clean up any technical issues they may have

 

[SeaOfBlue]

What are your thoughts on Calle Clang? I would like to see us get a Euro goalie in the system. Euro goalies are starting to dominate the field and Canada is falling behind.

I think he is your typical 3rd or 4th round goalie. I do not know how good he is compared to someone like Alnefelt. It would have been nice to see more of an international resume, but considering he has to go up against the Askarov of next year in Jesper Wallstadt the entire time (they are both 02's), he has not had the opportunities. Plus the cancellation of a bunch of tournaments.

All things considered, I think he goes in the 3rd round, on par with Alnefelt. Clang did much better in league competitions but lacked the international exposure to solidify a position higher than Alnefelt. Besides, I do not think any team should be desperate enough to spend a 2nd round pick on this goalie crop, but I am sure some teams will take one of the 2nd tier goalies there (Daws, Commesso, Clang, Blomqvist or Bednar).

Also, I would not be overly concerned about the nationality spread:

1) It is not like one country necessarily dominates. Russia has the best prospect by far, but each of the top countries (except Switzerland, who has literally nothing to offer this draft outside of a mid-late rounder in Simon Knak) has one of the top goalie prospects:

Russia - Askarov
Canada - Daws
USA - Commesso
Czechia - Bednar
Sweden - Clang
Finland - Blomqvist
Slovakia - Hlavaj (although I personally do not feel like he is worth drafting, as much as I would love to see a Sherbrooke player get drafted)

2) Outside of these guys, the half of the other "draftable" goalies on my list are Canadians too: Garand, Gauthier, Bjorklund, Thomson, with the others being Hugo Ollas (Sweden), Jesper Vikman (Sweden), Nick Malik (Czechia) and Tucker Tynan (USA). I only have 14 draftable goalies right now, and the shortlist of additional goalies who could be added are mostly all Canadians as well. I find this goalie crop so weak that I could hardly care if there are many Canadians in it. I could end up being totally wrong and a bunch of them turn out, but you mostly just have that top 6 and then a major drop off to anything that is super worthwhile. A couple of solid options to take in the later rounds, but not nearly as many as in previous years. So I doubt these guys are really going to alter the landscape in the NHL when it comes to goalie nationalities.

3) Next year Canada has the crop of top goalies. Sweden has next year's Askarov in Wallstadt, but Canada should be dominating the pool after that. Ben Gaudreau, Sebastian Cossa, Tristan Lennox, Talyn Boyko, Carter Serhyenko, Joe Vrbetic... And those are just the goalies with quality size and played in the CHL. The Czechs have Tomas Suchanek, but I do not think he will be any better than Bednar nor Malik. Russia, Finland and Sweden (beyond Wallstadt) have a small handful of promising 6'0"/6'1" goalies, but at this point I would take the Canadians over any of them. USA has Braden Holt but that is about it, and he's only played 8 WHL games thus far. Denmark has Thor Baden but he's a total unknown. Things will change by next year, but at this point, it should be a much nicer goalie draft next year, at least for Canadian goalies.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I think he is your typical 3rd or 4th round goalie. I do not know how good he is compared to someone like Alnefelt. It would have been nice to see more of an international resume, but considering he has to go up against the Askarov of next year in Jesper Wallstadt the entire time (they are both 02's), he has not had the opportunities. Plus the cancellation of a bunch of tournaments.

All things considered, I think he goes in the 3rd round, on par with Alnefelt. Clang did much better in league competitions but lacked the international exposure to solidify a position higher than Alnefelt. Besides, I do not think any team should be desperate enough to spend a 2nd round pick on this goalie crop, but I am sure some teams will take one of the 2nd tier goalies there (Daws, Commesso, Clang, Blomqvist or Bednar).

Also, I would not be overly concerned about the nationality spread:

1) It is not like one country necessarily dominates. Russia has the best prospect by far, but each of the top countries (except Switzerland, who has literally nothing to offer this draft outside of a mid-late rounder in Simon Knak) has one of the top goalie prospects:

Russia - Askarov
Canada - Daws
USA - Commesso
Czechia - Bednar
Sweden - Clang
Finland - Blomqvist
Slovakia - Hlavaj (although I personally do not feel like he is worth drafting, as much as I would love to see a Sherbrooke player get drafted)

2) Outside of these guys, the half of the other "draftable" goalies on my list are Canadians too: Garand, Gauthier, Bjorklund, Thomson, with the others being Hugo Ollas (Sweden), Jesper Vikman (Sweden), Nick Malik (Czechia) and Tucker Tynan (USA). I only have 14 draftable goalies right now, and the shortlist of additional goalies who could be added are mostly all Canadians as well. I find this goalie crop so weak that I could hardly care if there are many Canadians in it. I could end up being totally wrong and a bunch of them turn out, but you mostly just have that top 6 and then a major drop off to anything that is super worthwhile. A couple of solid options to take in the later rounds, but not nearly as many as in previous years. So I doubt these guys are really going to alter the landscape in the NHL when it comes to goalie nationalities.

3) Next year Canada has the crop of top goalies. Sweden has next year's Askarov in Wallstadt, but Canada should be dominating the pool after that. Ben Gaudreau, Sebastian Cossa, Tristan Lennox, Talyn Boyko, Carter Serhyenko, Joe Vrbetic... And those are just the goalies with quality size and played in the CHL. The Czechs have Tomas Suchanek, but I do not think he will be any better than Bednar nor Malik. Russia, Finland and Sweden (beyond Wallstadt) have a small handful of promising 6'0"/6'1" goalies, but at this point I would take the Canadians over any of them. USA has Braden Holt but that is about it, and he's only played 8 WHL games thus far. Denmark has Thor Baden but he's a total unknown. Things will change by next year, but at this point, it should be a much nicer goalie draft next year, at least for Canadian goalies.

I forgot about Garand. I saw a game of his on TV one night and really liked him. Just looked up his numbers and he has a 28-10-3 record with a 2.21 GAA and a .921 sv% with Kamloops.
I think it was on the main boards where someone said he knew him or his billet family or something like that and said he is a hard working, driven kid. I don't know where he's ranked but I doubt he makes it to one of our 6th rounders. I wouldnt mind drafting him at all.

I saw Taylor Gauthier play in an international game and though he had good tools. Might be a decent project out of the later rounds but I wouldnt lose sleep over not drafting him.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Is there anyone in the draft with a good mixture of skill and toughness?

 

[LaPlante94]

Is there anyone in the draft with a good mixture of skill and toughness?

Alexander Nikishin. Jaromir Pytlik is someone else I like who has a good mixture of both.